2025 Japanese GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Japanese GP Raceday preview.

2025 Japanese GP Raceday Update

Our two qualifying bets went out the window this morning as our terrible start to the F1 season continued. George Russell looked to have the beating of Leclerc all day long but he put in a rubbish final run in Q3 to finish one place behind his rival. Only one of the Racing Bulls made Q3 as Lawson could only manage fourteenth place. At least he will start ahead of Tsunoda, but only by one place.

Showers

The weather forecast has light rain arriving on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. The early forecasts had the rain ending in the morning, but the latest is that showers are due to continue into the afternoon and we now have a 50% chance of showers around the time of the race start, which is not what I was hoping for.

Max Verstappen pulled out one of the all-time best qualifying laps to snatch pole from Lando Norris. McLaren had been quickest in every practice session, and in Q1 and Q2, but Verstappen somehow manged to nick it by 0.012 seconds.

The pole sitter has won seven of the last nine races here with the other two coming from second and third place. I wouldn’t expect that to change, unless we get a shower affected race.

2025 Japanese GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

Red Bull 

Verstappen had been around 0.5 seconds off the pace in practice but the team opted to give him a low downforce setup which made the difference in qualifying, just. With Tsunoda, they opted to give him a lot of downforce to make the car easier to drive, but it also made it slower. He will start thirteen places behind his teammate. If we get a wet race, Verstappen’s low drag set up could be a problem, while Yuki would be in a better place, but he is a long way back.

McLaren 

Both cars are running with more downforce than Verstappen, Mercedes and Ferrari. That will help if we get rain and should help look after the tyres in the dry. They have the quickest car and losing out on pole is not the end of the world, but it is a headache they didn’t need.

Overtaking here is not easy, running in dirty air will take the edge off McLaren’s advantage and Verstappen tends to be very aggressive in wheel to wheel racing. He will try to intimidate the two McLarens. Passing via pitstops may be their best opportunity.

Both drivers looked relaxed and happy enough after qualifying. They know they have the best race pace and they should be able to make that pay, wet or dry. Having both cars up there opens up more strategic choices for the team. A luxury not afforded to Red Bull.

Ferrari 

Three tenths off the pace for Leclerc and Hamilton is back in eighth place. He is not happy with his setup. The team are running it higher off the ground to avoid the worn plank issues that got him disqualified in China. They will be hoping for a dry race, or at least Leclerc will be. A mixed up wet race might be Hamilton’s best chance to make up places and the higher ride height would not be an issue in the wet.

Leclerc said that he got the most out of the car in qualifying and it is hard to see them making any great impression on the three in front, unless we get a very mixed up race.

Mercedes 

Russell will not have been happy with his final qualifying run. He was looking at a second row start minimum but now starts fifth. Another team that are a bit low on downforce and he will want a dry race. Russell has shown good pace up until that Q3 run. He is still in the mix for a podium, but he may need a little luck.

Racing Bulls 

Despite having a painful problem in his actual cockpit, Hadjar managed to qualify in seventh place. He has been top 10 pace in every session and he needs to deliver some decent points for the team. They have been able to capitalise on their pace so far and that goes for the pit wall as much as the drivers.

Hopefully the team will have found away to make Hadjar more comfortable as doing 57 laps with your balls in a vice would be tricky. Hadjar did not convert his seventh place start in China into points, but that was a strategy error.

He has a Ferrari behind him and Albon may well have better race pace. So, hanging on to a top ten place is not a given. Lawson starts from thirteenth place and hopefully he can beat Tsunoda, but the Red Bull is the quicker car.

Williams 

Another good effort from Albon who has improved on his starting position in the first two races. Sainz got a penalty for blocking Hamilton in Q2 and now starts fifteenth.

Haas 

Bearman should have got driver of the day in China and he was one of the stars in qualifying, dragging the modified Haas into Q3. Ocon has not been able to get the same out of the car and is way back in eighteenth. Embarrassing.

Bearman may have overdelivered and holding on to a top 10 finish is a big ask, but he was good in China. They are running with plenty of downforce and rain would be in their favour.

Alpine 

Eleventh place for Gasly who has finished the first two races in ……eleventh. Points could be there for the taking as his race pace has been decent. Doohan is back in nineteenth and is frankly looking out of his depth.

Aston Martin 

The team say that Alonso got the most out of the car and that is where they are. They are running with a draggy set up, maybe hoping for rain. Stroll starts last and his good start to the season took a backwards step.

Sauber 

Will be hoping for rain as they have a lot of downforce on the car. Hulkenberg scored points in the wet race in Australia, starting from seventeenth, so today’s sixteenth place doesn’t look so bad. Getting lucky twice is pushing it a bit.

2025 Japanese GP Raceday Summary

Unfortunately the 50% chance of showers is the worst sort of forecast that you can get. I wanted a dry race as we would learn a lot more, and we may get it, but it makes having any bets extra risky.

McLaren still look to have the best chance to win. Their race pace, wet or dry is better than the others and so long as they can stay out of trouble, they should win. Which one? Norris has been the better of the two so far, but he is always a bit of a worry at race starts.

Norris was 2.50 ante post and is now 2.40. I will take him for a small stake. He maybe should be a two pointer, but it is the ‘Max Factor’ making a crash more likely that is the limiting factor.

2025 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win @ 2.40 with Livescorebet

There are a couple of group bets which look to offer a bit of value.

It is hard to say that there are any drivers massively out of place on the grid. Tsunoda could be one. He wasn’t doing too badly but he failed to get his tyres warmed up in qualifying and ended up fourteenth and now starts thirteenth after Carlos Sainz got a penalty. The other is Carlos Sainz, who got the penalty.

Sainz is still learning the car and trying to get over ‘Ferrari habits’. In the free practice sessions he was 10/10/11. He was twelfth in qualifying and then got bumped down to fifteenth. There is a case to say that he should be nearer the top ten. The car has top 10 pace, as shown by Albon.

Sainz feels like he has made progress this weekend. A mistake in the final sector cost him a place in Q3 and he does look to be out of position on the grid, with the potential to go forward. He is a good wet weather driver (I will forgive him for Melbourne) which he might need to be as the car looks to be set up more for a dry race.

He is 3.50 to win Group 3 with Fitzdares, where he is grouped with Alonso, Lawson and Hulkenberg. The odds are good enough for a small bet.

2025 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win Group 3 @ 3.50 with Fitzdares

Sticking with Williams, I was considering Albon at 1.67 to finish in the points, but he is 2.75 to beat Hadjar, Bearman and Gasly.

Albon started sixth in Melbourne and came home in fifth in the wet race. In China he started tenth and finished ninth in the dry. He is a very experienced driver, which is not the case with Hadjar or Bearman.

The racing Bulls have not executed their races well so far and Bearman might have overachieved in the Haas. Gasly’s Alpine doesn’t yet have the pace of the Williams, although I quite fancy Gasly to get a point. Albon does have a hideous record here having retired for the last three races at this track. However, he did finish fourth in 2019 for Red Bull, so it is not all bad.

2025 Japanese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to win Group 2 @ 2.75 with Fitzdares

-JamesPunt