2025 Las Vegas GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Las Vegas GP outright betting preview. It was an up and down weekend in Brazil, hopefully we have more ups than downs this weekend.

2025 Las Vegas GP

It was a case of one step forward and another on back in Brazil for the betting account. Six winners and six losers for a net profit of a pathetic 0.07 point. It all came down to Hulkenberg beating Gasly by 0.5s to cost us the group bet in the end. We are still 0.34 point down on the season, with three more race weekends to go, starting with this weekend’s 2025 Las Vegas GP.

This is a race that you will either love, or loath, and some of that will come down to where you will be watching the race. If you are Europe, it will tend towards the loath. There are some races worth getting up in the middle of the night for, like Suzuka, and others that are not. Like Las Vegas.

To start with, the owners of F1 realised that to get many people to watch the race live in its heartland audience in Europe, they had the race starting very late at night local time. The problem was, that when they hit snags with the track, as tends to happen at new street tracks, the delays meant that fans at the track were left hanging around, in very cold weather, and with no public transport to get them home. Many had to leave early. It was a shambles. So, qualifying and the race now start earlier, at 8.00pm local time.

Ticket Sales Down

It is not getting the big TV audiences F1 needs and local ticket sales aren’t as good as they had been in year one. The locals don’t like the disruption caused by all the road closures and it is beginning to look like the Vegas experiment has lost its appeal.

The time differences and late start times mean that there is some confusion as to what days we are actually doing what. In terms of local time, the weekend kicks off on Thursday at 16.30pm. UK time 12.30am on Friday. Qualifying is at 8.00pm local time on Friday, but 04.00am on Saturday UK time and the timings are the same for the race on Saturday/Sunday depending on where you are.

2025 Las Vegas GP: The Track

We only have two races to go on but there are a couple of things that mark the track out. The first is that it is the coldest race of the year. Even starting a few hours earlier, it is still nighttime, in a desert area, in November. The weather forecast is for cloudy and cool weather, with some rain around. FP1 should be dry and as it will still be daytime, air temps will be around 15 degrees. Not very representative of the qualifying or race conditions.

FP2 is the key practice session, being at the same time as qualifying and the race. This session will be after dark, cloudy, 11 degrees with a small chance of very light rain. FP3 is the other daylight session and it is going to be 13 degrees, cloudy and with a 50% chance of brief showers.

Qualifying will be much the same. 10 degrees with a 50% chance of light showers. The race will be dry and around 12 degrees.

Cold Weather

All sessions will be relatively cold, especially the night sessions. That makes it hard for the tyres to get hot enough to generate the kind of grip the drivers want.

The layout of the track is basically a lot of flat-out sectors, with lots of straights, and seventeen corners, five of them short duration 90 degree turns. There are three high speed curves, but it is a low downforce track with the emphasis on straight line performance. The low downforce setup compounds the lack of grip on the cold tyres.

Pirelli will be bringing their three softest compounds to help with grip, and the drivers have coped well enough with the conditions.

Red Bull won the first race here in 2023. Ferrari had locked out the front row, but Sainz had a 10-place grid penalty for the race. Verstappen qualified third but started second. Verstappen quickly pushed Leclerc off the track and got a five second penalty (really? That’s not like him). 

Leclerc retook the lead even before Verstappen pitted and took his penalty. Leclerc then got shafted by a safety car that allowed everyone to pit without losing much time, and Leclerc’s advantage was gone. Verstappen got past Leclerc to win the race by two seconds, with Perez third.

Last Year

Last year, George Russell qualified on pole position, from Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz in second. Piere Gasly split the two Ferraris by qualifying third. The race was won quite easily by Russell and he was joined on the podium by teammate Lewis Hamilton who had started tenth, with the Ferraris third and fourth. Verstappen finished fifth, ahead of Norris in sixth and that was enough for him to win the Drivers’ Championship.

Red Bull have won once but not had a pole position. Ferrari have had a pole and a car on the front row for both races, but they have not won. Mercedes won from pole position last year and had a 1-2 finish, despite Hamilton starting on the fifth row.

The track needs a low downforce setup to maximise top speeds, and it puts a premium of being able to generate heat into the tyres. Could that mix things up? Very possibly.

The Teams

McLaren

Lando Norris has extended his lead over Oscar Piastri to 24 points and over Verstappen to 49 points. There are still three GPs and a Sprint race left to go, so a potential 83 points for a perfect finish. It is far from over and this is a race weekend in which McLaren are expecting to be off the pace.

They have not gone well here in the first two races. Norris’ sixth place last year was their best result. The cold track temperatures do not favour a car that is good at looking after its tyres. This is one track where having a car that tends to overheat the tyres will suddenly find themselves in a good place, but McLaren have tended to lose more grip compared to others and this is likely to be a damage limitation race.

Oscar Piastri was quicker in Brazil, back on a grippier surface. He didn’t execute the weekend well, which is the mark of a man under pressure. Will a return to another low grip track put him on the back foot again?

McLaren have been downplaying their chances for this weekend, but they have looked at last year’s data and put in place changes to address the problems they had. They do not sound overly confident and that we will just have to wait and see how they go.

Mercedes

Took a firmer grip on second place in the Constructors’ Championship after a successful weekend in Brazil. Second and third in the Sprint race and second and fourth in the Grand Prix means they are now 32 points ahead of Red Bull and 26 ahead of Ferrari.

This is a track which Mercedes have said that they should be competitive at, and with McLaren likely to struggle, they are targeting a win.

George Russell has won two races in 2025. The first was in Montreal. That is a track with similar demands on the car, and it was a pretty cool weekend temperature wise. Short duration corners, lots of straights and the car’s ability to get heat into its tyres, made the Montreal track ideal for the Mercedes.

Considerations

Before lumping on, we have to consider whether the car now has the same qualities as it did back in mid-June, or indeed here last year? It is not a good idea to have a car that is very good on a couple of tracks and needs very cool conditions, as the rest of the season will be a struggle.

Mercedes did introduce upgrades at Imola and they lost their way. It was a new rear suspension setup and the car got worse. It was still on the car in Montreal, but the lack of any long duration corners meant that the suspension wasn’t a big issue. Eventually they took a step back and went back to their old setup.

At the very least, the team know the kind of setup they need to be fast around this track. They have the data from last year, and what their setup was in Montreal. It should not be beyond a team like Mercedes to prepare properly for a race that they could win.

In a close battle between three teams for second place, and the associated prizemoney, I suspect Mercedes will have been working hard for this weekend in particular.

Red Bull

The Sao Paulo GP weekend was very close to a disaster for Red Bull, but just as they did in 2024, they turned things around dramatically and Verstappen was able to pick up twenty points from the Sprint and Grand Prix.

After Verstappen could only qualify 16th, the team decided to break parc ferme rules to give Verstappen a brand new power unit, a new floor and various setup changes. That meant a pit lane start, but you can get away with that at Interlagos. The inevitable safety cars bunch the field and a new power unit is always very handy up the long drag to the finish line.

McLaren have, quite rightly, asked the FIA to decide if fitting a new power unit for purely performance reasons, has to be included in spending under the cost cap regulations. If they say no, we can expect anyone who flunks a qualifying session will be putting a new power unit in the back of the car.

It does leave Verstappen with a much newer power unit to use in the last three races, and that will help with his straight line performance this weekend. I would expect Verstappen to be in the mix for at least a podium finish this weekend.

They cured their low downforce setup problems earlier in the season and won at Monza, so they should be competitive. Verstappen is not a big fan of street circuits, he can win on them, but he was often second best to Perez on street tracks, and that tells us something.

Ferrari

No points from the Grand Prix in Brazil. Leclerc was going well but he was the innocent victim of Piastri’s ambitious lunge at the restart. They picked up a few points in the Sprint race but they have fallen back to fourth place, and that means dropping around $20million. 

The boss man, Mr. John Elkann, told the press after the race that his two drivers should talk less and focus on driving. He has egg all over his face for signing Hamilton and now that it hasn’t worked out, he is pointing the finger of blame at his drivers. Not a good look and very stupid. Hamilton isn’t doing a great job, but without Leclerc, where would Ferrari be? Morale will be at a low point.

Ferrari have done OK here, with a podium in both races and a pole position. It is always hard to say when they find a sweet spot, but Leclerc has been qualifying well in recent races and he can be in the mix for pole position and maybe a podium. Hamilton? He drove well in the race last year, but he had the car for it then. I’m not sure his heart is really in it now and the comments from the Ferrari chairman are not going to help his mood.

Williams

Have not scored any points from the last three Grand Prix, and the points they scored in the US GP Sprint race flattered them as the two McLarens and Alonso went out early. They gave up on this season early on and their relative performance is suffering. Williams are still 29 points clear of Racing Bulls in second place, but there might be some nervous glances over their shoulders after the Racing Bulls picked up ten points in Brazil.

However, this is the kind of track which should suit them. Not much in the way of long duration corners and the cooler, low grip conditions are right up Carlos Sainz’ street. He has qualified in second place here for the first two races and was the faster driver on both occasions, just that a ten-place grid penalty knackered his chances in 2023.

Sainz has scored points in Canada and Azerbaijan, two tracks with similar demands. Williams are a bit of a basket case, but Sainz is worth considering this weekend.

Racing Bulls

Scored ten points in Sao Paulo, but with Leclerc and Hamilton both out of the race, they were flattered a little. Hadjar has been very good in qualifying but still struggling with race pace. The points in Brazil ended a three-race barren run for the team but it is hard to say if it was a sign that they are back in form, or things just worked out. There are other midfield teams that make more appeal.

Aston Martin

They really have got stuck in a hole. They start out on Fridays looking OK, and just go backwards as the weekend goes on. Just seven points from the last six Grand Prix is pretty grim. Lance Stroll is just stealing a living, but the car is hardly helping. Going through the motions, waiting for the Newey designed 2026 car.

Haas

With late season upgrades, Haas have had a run of four points scoring races, and good points, 24 of them. They are now just two points off Aston Martin in seventh place. Oliver Bearman is in top form, making good overtakes and growing up after a few howlers earlier in the season. He has to be in the frame for more points this weekend. Ocon has been disappointing with just three points scored in the last ten Grand Prix.

Sauber

Their cold-hot-cold season has turned, if not hot again, at least warmer. Three consecutive points finishes but they probably need others to have problems if they are to score again.

Alpine

Gasly was good in Sao Paulo and made us a few points, but nobody really new where the pace had come from. Interlagos has been a lucky track for Alpine and it is probably just one of those things. It remains hard to fancy them ante post.

2025 Las Vegas GP: Summary

I was asked about a month ago for my best bet for the remainder of the F1 season, and I said George Russell to win the Las Vegas GP. A month is a long time in Formula 1, so do I still think that Russell is the man to beat? Maybe, but it looks like a competitive weekend.

The standout feature of this race is the track temperature. It has a big effect on the tyres and the tyres are the only thing connecting the car to planet earth. If they are not giving enough grip the driver is going to struggle.

The other feature of the track is the amount of time spent at full throttle, going in a straight line. It is not unique in that feature and we can look at Montreal and Baku as two good form guides as to who may go well this weekend.

Looking at those two races and the one thing that stands out is now bad McLaren were. Norris qualified seventh in both, crashed out in Montreal and finished seventh in Baku. Piastri qualified third in Montreal but finished fourth, and in Baku he crashed out in Q3 and also crashed out in the race, in what was his worst weekend of the year.

Mercedes Can Go Well

George Russell won from pole in Montreal and finished second in Baku, having qualified fifth. Antonelli qualified fourth in both and finished third and fourth. Impressive. That does suggest that Mercedes are going to like it here. The lower temperatures might be the icing on the cake.

Max Verstappen qualified and finished second in Montreal and won from pole in Baku. He isn’t going to be far away from another win.

Ferrari were poor in both. Leclerc complained of being blocked in Montreal qualifying and ended up eighth, and like Piastri he crashed out in Q3 in Baku and finished ninth. Hamilton qualified fifth in Montreal, finishing sixth, and in Baku he qualified twelfth and finished eighth. Their usual messy under performance.

Another driver who was impressive in both races was Carlos Sainz. He did get blocked in qualifying in Montreal and ended up sixteenth, but he had a strong race to finish tenth. In Baku, Sainz qualified in second place and finished third.

Bearman finished eleventh and twelfth respectively which bodes well for a car that is more competitive right now.

Taking into account past form here, recent 2025 form and look-a-like track form, it looks like we could have a Verstappen vs. Mercedes battle. Given that Antonelli’s three best results this season came at Montreal, Baku and the last race in Sao Paulo, he has to enter the equation.

2025 Las Vegas GP: Ante Post Selections

Does Russell still get my vote? Is Verstappen going to spoil it? Can Antonelli get his debut F1 win? As ever….it’s tricky.

The odds often make my mind up. Where does the value lie?

Max Verstappen is the 2.75 favourite, Norris is the 3.75 second favourite, but McLaren are not on my radar this weekend. George Russell is 5.50, very much at the lower end of my expectations odds wise. Piastri is 10.00 (see Norris), and Kimi Antonelli 11.00.

Verstappen is not bad at 2.75 and if you fancy him, the odds are fine. Russell’s odds? Let’s say I was hoping for 7.00. There isn’t a lot of meat on the value bone. Antonelli at 11.00 does get my attention. Again, his odds are shorter than I hoped for, but he does look like a value bet to me.

Antonelli Promise

The Italian youngster had a very good, dare I say mature, weekend in Sao Paulo. Second in both the Sprint and the Grand Prix. He had his best GP qualifying result of the season and his best race results of the season. He has looked much more comfortable since we left Europe.

Since the Italian GP, Antonelli has finished 4/5/13/6/2. He has been beating McLarens, beating Ferraris and in the last two races, he has beaten Russell. He even finished ahead of Max Verstappen in the last race, holding the charging Red Bull at bay in the closing laps. It is starting to click.

You can get 12.00 for Antonelli to win, but I prefer to go with an each way bet at 11.00. We are getting e/w terms of 1/5 the odds 1-3. It’s like the good old days!

2025 Las Vegas GP Tip: 1 point e/w Kimi Antonelli to win the Las Vegas GP @ 11.00 with Skybet, Betfair

For qualifying, seeing as how I will be in the Land of Nod when it is happening, I am going to have a risky ante-post bet. We have been doing OK with qualifying bets recently, but that is usually on the back of watching FP3. I am not going to have that luxury this weekend.

Ferrari have qualified well here in the previous two years. They have a car that is good at getting heat into their tyres and that will be, and has been, a useful trait. Their troubles are in races, where they have to prevent plank wear. The red cars’ best potential is often in qualifying were they are not having to lift and coast at the end of straights.

Charles Leclerc was the fastest qualifier here in 2023, with teammate Carlos Sainz second fastest. In 2024 Leclerc was fourth fastest in qualifying, but Sainz was second once again. Leclerc has had eight top three finishes in GP qualifying in 2025, including in the last three sessions.

He has only had the one pole position, but this is a track where conditions might give him a better chance. We can get e/w terms for the top three and at decent odds.

2025 Las Vegas GP Tip: 1 point e/w Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 13.00 with Hills, BET365

Carlos Sainz is no longer driving a Ferrari but his record here is good. He is a driver who thrives on low grip surfaces. He used to drive rally cars around his family estate back in Spain and is comfortable when the car is moving underneath him. The Spaniard is handy in the wet for the same reason.

The Williams car is not great. It struggles on long duration, fast corners in particular, of which Las Vegs is free from. It has gone well on tracks with long straights and short duration corners. It is not a coincidence that his, and the team’s, best result came in Baku. He also went well in Jeddah, Miami and Mexico City with their long straights.

Williams are right up there with Ferrari in terms of dropping the ball just when they have a scoring chance, but this is a track that does give them a good chance to score more points. The optimists might consider a bet on Sainz to finish top 6 at 5.00, but he has only done that once in 2025.

I will be more realistic and stick to a points finish. It was close to a two-point stake, but it is Williams we are talking about.

2025 Las Vegas GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish in the points @ 2.10 generally available

In terms of the midfield teams, one of the drivers who has been in top form in recent races is Ollie Bearman. Haas were bringing upgrades to the car very late in the season, but better late than never and he has finished in the top ten for the last four races, including a fourth and sixth places in the last two. He just missed out on points in Montreal and Baku, but the car is more competitive right now, and at odds against he makes sense for a points finish bet.

2025 Las Vegas GP Tip: 1 point Ollie Bearman to finish in the points @ 2.14 with Unibet

It is unlikely that there will be a qualifying update for this race, but if there is it will be well before FP3 takes place. There will be a raceday update but that will be late on Saturday afternoon UK time.

-JamesPunt