2025 Miami GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Miami GP betting preview and tips.

2025 Miami GP Preview

A bit of housekeeping to start with, or a body count to be more realistic. The start to this season has been terrible. We have struck fifty five bets and won just sixteen. The running tally is now -17.98 points. That will take some winning back, but there is still a long season ahead.

I thought we were a bit unlucky in Jeddah and hit the post with a couple of nice bets that would have made a difference. Onwards and upwards.

Race six means we are a quarter of the way through the season. McLaren lead the Constructors’ Championship by seventy seven points from Mercedes. The Drivers’ Championship is now led by Oscar Piastri, who is ten points clear of teammate Lando Norris. Max Verstappen is just two points behind Norris and George Russell is fourth on 73 points.

This weekend’s race comes from the Miami International Motordrome. That is a grand title for what is a temporary ‘street’ circuit set in the car park of the Miami Dolphins stadium.

The 2025 Miami GP Track

The 2025 Miami GP circuit is not a favourite of mine, not least because of the fiddly, six corner combination at the end of sector two. The rest of the lap is largely fast flowing track with long flat out sections, with one hairpin at the end of a very long straight. It is an OK track, until the cars reach the silly bit where these F1 cars look cumbersome and ungainly.

The circuit has three DRS zones, nineteen corners and while it is not as unforgiving as Jeddah, you are never too far away from the walls around the track. Safety cars are likely, as recovering crashed cars is difficult. Indeed, it was a safety car deployment which enabled Lando Norris to take the lead of the race and win his first Grand Prix here last year.

Overtaking Difficult

Overtaking is possible at the end of the long straight and also at the end of the shorter straight that follows, but like most street circuits it is hard, especially with these huge cars. It is a medium downforce track, and Pirelli will once again be bringing their three softest compounds. That is one step softer than we had here last year. Tyre wear is medium, but if we get a weekend of showers, that can wash the track clean and that in turn can push up tyre wear.

This is also a Sprint race format weekend. Oh the joy. One practice session for the teams to find their best setup for the Sprint qualifying and Sprint race, before the cars can be worked on again ahead of the race qualifying and Grand Prix.

Rain May Cause Issues

The fact that it is a temporary circuit means that it will evolve over the course of the weekend. That makes finding a good setup for the Sprint part of the weekend even more difficult. If we get rain showers, that can reset the track and we could see a constant evolution through every session, which makes predictions even more difficult.

The circuit was first used in 2022 and the sprint race format only introduced last year. The Grand Prix has not yet been won from pole position and no front row starter has won the race. There have been a total of four DNFs across the three races, three of them in 2022. The track was completely resurfaced for the 2023 race, but it hasn’t been touched for this year.

The 2025 Miami GP Weather Forecast

The weather conditions in Miami at this time of year are hot and humid, and rain is always possible. This weekend’s forecast is for temperatures of around 30 degrees for all three days of the 2025 Miami GP. The forecast is very fluid and has changed every time I have looked at it.

As of Thursday morning the latest forecast is still for 30 degrees all weekend. The chances of rain showers on Friday is now up to 25% but that is only 2% for the afternoon when sprint qualifying takes place.

Saturday sees a 25% chance of showers all day, so we may see the sprint and/or qualifying affected by a shower, but hopefully not. For the 2025 Miami GP on Sunday the conditions will be cloudy and humid with a 67% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Team and Driver Records

McLaren 

Arrived here last year with a substantial upgrade, effectively launching their proper 2024 car. They only had the one practice session to evaluate the new car and they struggled in the Sprint qualifying, ending up sixth and ninth on the Sprint race grid. Norris was involved in a three car crash on the first lap and retired. Piastri held on the his sixth place.

They qualified fifth and sixth for the race and Norris got lucky with a safety car and inherited the lead, which he defended from Verstappen, winning by over seven seconds. McLaren had not scored a point in the first two years in Miami. Piastri has not finished better than thirteenth.

Now that they have the best car, by what margin is debatable, they are the favourites again this weekend. Between the two drivers, the momentum is with Oscar Piastri. He suffered a blip in his home race but just got on with things. Lando Norris has a blip and it is now everything is all about his mental health, his motivation, his personality etc, etc.

Norris’ Attitude Must Improve

The difference between the two drivers is that one can move on, the other builds it up, with the help of the media, into a mountain. Norris needs to sit down with his engineers, and work out how to be better, where he is losing out on performance. Instead he goes back to his motor home to listen to Beck’s ‘Loser’ on repeat.

Perhaps the positive mental association of returning to the scene of his first F1 win will flick the switch from negative to positive.

McLaren tested a new floor in free practice in Jeddah, but did not use it in the race. It is very likely that, after two weeks to evaluate the data gathered, they will introduce it this weekend. It will not be the same kind of level of upgrade they unleashed here last year, but it may make a difference.

McLaren have been very careful with upgrades in recent times. Not rushing them in. They have a good car, so why risk taking a step back if the upgrade doesn’t work as expected?

Mercedes 

With this track arriving on the calendar at the same time as the start of the ground effect regulations, Miami has not seen much success for Mercedes, but they have still scored five top six finishes. Russell finished ahead of Hamilton for the first two races here. Antonelli has never driven here before, and the Sprint format does not give him much time to learn it.

The Mercedes is a decent car and the two drivers are making the most of it. Obviously, Antonelli has the handicap of having to get used to F1, the team and the circuits, which accounts for him being thirty five points behind his teammate.

They will need to bring some upgrades if they are to stay in the top four pack, but I doubt they are going to go too far down that path. Championships are unlikely for them and their resources will be better spent on next cars car.

Tyre Wear

The car suffered with greater tyre wear than their nearest rivals in Jeddah. Russell had qualified well, starting in third. He did all he could but only finished fifth, with his tyres getting close to failing. High speeds and high track temperatures conspired to give them bigger tyre problems, even than Ferrari, who struggled in high temperatures in Melbourne, when it was dry. It was a surprise and left the team scratching their heads.

The conditions were hotter than in Bahrain, the tyres were softer and the corners faster. These differences may have pushed the tyres on the Mercedes over the edge.

This weekend is likely to offer up similar demands in terms of track temperatures. Maybe some rain would help, but in the hot conditions, only a proper soaking would make much difference.

A hot, dry race, under the daylight sun might well push them over the edge again. The tyres will be a step softer than last year, as was the case in Jeddah. They can probably manage them better, but will it be at the expense of pace?

Red Bull 

Verstappen won the first two races here, and was on course to win last year, before he lost the lead under the safety car and then damaging his car by hitting a bollard in the silly section.

The Red Bull is still a competitive car, in Verstappen’s hands, if the track and conditions are right. The car is strongest on a fast track, in cooler conditions and on a smooth surface. Jeddah was hotter than was perfect, but he was on pole and second in the race.

Suzuka was just about perfect, thanks to the partially resurfaced track, the cool conditions and he dominated, but Bahrain had tarmac that was too abrasive. It is a bit of a Goldilocks car.

Max Thereabouts

Verstappen can be thereabouts if most of the ingredients are there, he can win if they are all there, but he is going to struggle if the car gets none of its required conditions.

The 2025 Miami GP track may not have all the ingredients they need. It will be hotter than ideal, but the track surface is generally smooth, with good grip and not too abrasive. Most of the track is fast and flowing and I think it has enough for Verstappen to be aiming for a podium. He is just 1.57 to do so ante post, which is too short for me.

Tsunoda is still finding his feet, but he has made Q3 in the last two race weekends and looks capable of a points finish. He has finished 12/11/7 here before, so he knows the track as well as anyone.

Ferrari 

A decent record here for Ferrari with three podium finishes, including two for Leclerc. Hamilton only beat his Mercedes teammate once here and he is struggling to match Leclerc this season.

Lewis Hamilton won the first sprint race of the season, in China. All was rosy in the Ferrari garden. The great marriage of the brands was bearing early fruit. But it has since gone sour.

The Chinese GP itself was a disaster. The two drivers collided on lap one, damaging Leclerc’s car and they finished fifth for Leclerc and sixth for Hamilton. That wasn’t the end of it. Both cars were disqualified. Hamilton for excessive plank wear and Leclerc for his car being underweight.

Plank Wear

The excessive plank wear issue for Hamilton was the more concerning. The rear of the car was sitting too low at high speeds. Under a full race fuel load the plank was hitting the track and wearing down excessively. The solution was to raise the rear of the car, which reduces downforce, which reduces grip and the downward spiral starts.

It has affected Hamilton much more than Leclerc. Hamilton has been way off Leclerc in qualifying ever since the Chinese weekend and is losing out in the races as a result.

I mentioned Lando Norris negativity earlier, but Hamilton is giving him a run for his money. The bottom lip is out and he has run up the white flag. “At the moment, there’s no fix. This is how it’s going to be for the rest of the year. It’s just going to be painful.” Add to that the fact that he does not like this track, or the whole event.

Upgrade Imminent

Ferrari have a planned upgrade coming for Imola, which will no doubt try and address the problem with the rear suspension, but Hamilton’s head space has gone wrong. He was the same with his qualifying pace at Mercedes last year. He just said that he wasn’t going to be able to out qualifying Russell in qualifying, and that was that.

There is some speculation that he is just losing some pace. If that is true, Ferrari have a big problem. They have spent big to bring in Hamilton and he is now getting outqualified by the driver that was sacked to make way for him….in a Williams. There are some people very high up the food chain at Ferrari with egg on their faces.

Pressure On

The pressure is on now. Not just making the car more competitive, but specifically to make it better for their big investment. With 2026 being the BIG year of change, it is a very unwelcome problem for Ferrari to try and sort out, and one that they may well just have put up with if it was Sainz in the car, saving their resources for the all-important 2026 car.

Ferrari are firefighting…and they may be fighting the wrong fire.

Still, the Sprint race will offer Ferrari a chance to shine. They can run the car low to maximise downforce. The lighter fuel loads mean that it will not bottom as much as it would with a full tank, and at just one third race distance, the plank will just not suffer so much wear. The Grand Prix is a different matter.

Watch out for their one off livery. It is possibly the worst I have ever seen. It looks like a Ferrari has been mounted by an old Williams.

Williams 

The leading team in the ‘best of the rest’ category. They enjoyed their best race of the season in Saudi Arabia, getting a double points finish on merit. As Carlos Sainz gets more settled into the team they should looking for and picking up more points with both drivers. Sainz finished 3/5/5 for Ferrari here. Albon finished ninth here in 2022, the team’s only points here.

The fight for points in the midfield is very competitive and can vary from track to track. A tenth or two can mean three or four places on the grid, maybe more. For that reason, it may be better to wait until Sunday before playing in to finish in the points market, unless the odds on offer are silly.

Haas 

Have scored minor points here for the last two years. Of their current drivers, Esteban Ocon has finished in the points in all three GPs here, but it is a new venue for Bearman.

Bearman has been very impressive so far. Yes, he had nightmare in Melbourne, but he wasn’t alone. Since then he has had three points finishes. The team have been very impressed with his qualities. He is very positive (Norris and Hamilton take note), is good for morale and is keen to learn as much as he can, even studying data from past races to understand the track and its demands on the car. Even his teammate is impressed.

The car is not that great. It still has vices and is not entirely predictable but not many of this generation of cars are. Qualifying pace is nowhere near as good has their race pace. With a competitive midfield, they can’t afford to be giving rivals vital track position at the start of races.

Haas have done OK here in the past and they are in the mix for the minor points at the 2025 Miami GP.

Aston Martin 

Alonso was third here in 2024 and ninth last year. Stroll was tenth in 2022. They are unlikely to be able to improve on that record in 2025. The car is poor and they seem reluctant to waste many resources to trying to improve it.

It is said that Aston Martin is not a happy ship. Everything is in place to build a great car, but they have built a lemon this season. They should just say that this year is a write off and it all starts next year, but investors and sponsors want to see results now. There is no guarantee that the next few years will be all milk and honey, and some points in 2025 would help keep the troops happy.

Adrian Newey will not be working on this year’s car, that would just be a waste of his time. He is said to be practically living at the factory, working on next year’s challenger, and he has his work cut out.

Alonso has been very consistent. In qualifying his form figures have been 12/13/13/13/13. In the races, his best is two eleventh places. Stroll broke the record for the most Q1 exits in Jeddah and while he has scored ten points, the bulk were due to the two Ferraris being disqualified in China and the very high attrition in Australia. With only Sauber not in the hunt for points on merit, there is nowhere for Aston Martin to hide.

Racing Bulls 

They have eight points on the board but arguably they have not taken their chances every well. They have not been helped by having to change drivers to meet the needs of Red Bull. Racing Bulls have lost Tsunoda to Red Bull and have taken back Liam Lawson.

The Kiwi will have felt humiliated to have been dropped by Red Bull after just two races, and the fact that Tsunoda is doing much better at Red Bull than he did is another slap in the face. Drivers with a negative psyche has been a bit of a theme in this preview, and I think we can add Lawson to the list.

Hadjar has struggled in the last two qualifying sessions but recovered to score a point in Jeddah. He is very inexperienced and the two drivers are far from fully developed. Both are new to this track. The car may be better than their drivers right now.

Alpine 

Have always scored points here and had a double points finish in 2023. Gasly has just the one top ten, eighth in 2023. Gasly is starting to look a bit happier in the car, especially in qualifying. The race results are not quite so good, but he is putting himself in with a chance. Jack Doohan did OK in Bahrain, a track with which he was familiar, but he is just not good enough by the looks of things. There will be increasing pressure to give Colapinto a chance.

Sauber 

Hulkenberg was able to score six points in Melbourne, thanks to a rain affected race with six cars not making the finish. He was thirteenth in Bahrain but other that those two races, they have just been making up the numbers. There is nothing to think that this will change. Maybe a rain affected 2025 Miami GP could offer them a chance of another fluke?

2025 Miami GP Summary

With this being a sprint race weekend, we effectively have two separate events. The sprint event, or the Petit Prix, with qualifying being the second session on Friday, and the race at noon local time on Saturday. The reset button is then pressed for the Grand Prix qualifying at 4pm local time, with the Grand Prix at 4pm on Sunday.

With question marks over the weather on Sunday, and with the cars setups being changed after the sprint race, I am only going to look at the sprint event for now. Hopefully, that will be held under stable conditions. We can then look at race on Sunday with more knowledge of the form and hopefully the weather.

Dull Sprint Race

Last year’s sprint race was dull. The top six on the grid finished in exactly the same order as they started. The first sprint race of the 2025 season was a little better, but not hugely. Hamilton won from pole, Piastri swapped places with Verstappen to finish 2nd and 3rd. Russell and Leclerc swapped places to finish 4th and 5th. The top eight on the sprint grid all finished in the top eight.

Looking at last year’s six sprint race weekends, the trend of the top six on the grid finishing top six in the race is strong. The pole sitter won three from six, but McLaren swapped drivers in the last two, otherwise it would have been five from six.

The sprint races, with no pit stops, means that overtaking or accidents are the only means of changing the order. Nowadays, with these cars being so sensitive to dirty air, the pole sitter has a big advantage and overtaking is not easy amongst the cars behind.

Risk Averse Drivers

Drivers are reluctant to take any big risks in the sprint. Have a big crash, and you may miss out on qualifying for the GP, and that is where the big points are handed out. This is the problem with sprints, they are generally just light sparring rather than robust racing.

The pole sitter is very likely to win the sprint race. So who is likely to get the sprint pole?

We have had five qualifying sessions so far, and one sprint qualifying session. The winner of the one sprint qualifying session was Lewis Hamilton. Compare that to his qualifying for the ‘proper’ GPs. His qualifying positions for those have been 8/5/8/9/7. Not even close to pole. So why the difference?

The first sprint race weekend was in China where the track, used only for the F1 race weekend, had been resurfaced. It was very ‘green’, low on grip but evolving. Stringing a good lap at the right time was the key. It was a bit random. There was just 0.08 seconds covering the first three.

Low On Grip

For this weekend’s sprint qualifying, the cars are running on a one off temporary circuit. It hasn’t been resurfaced, to my knowledge, but it will be low on grip and green to start with. There is just the one, one hour practice session to clean it up and lay down some rubber. There is just that one hour session for the teams to settle on a setup for the Sprint events. They are randomising factors.

In ‘normal’ qualifying so far in 2025 the best qualifier has been Oscar Piastri. He has scored two poles, two seconds and a third for a qualifying average of 1.80. Russell and Verstappen are tied second on 3.20, Norris fourth on 4.40 and Leclerc fifth with 4.80.

The rest are some way behind. I would expect that the sprint pole will be won by one of those five, and as the link between pole a sprint race win is so strong, they are the most likely sprint race winners.

Piastri Fav

Obviously Piastri has to be favourite. He has the best car and has been very consistent, but he has been beaten. He is the joint favourite to win the sprint race at 2.50, alongside Norris. The one thing that bothers me about Norris in the sprints is that in the last seven, he has only made up a place once on merit. He generally loses ground, as he did in China.

Third favourite for the Sprint is Max Verstappen on 6.50, George Russell is 15.00 and Charles Leclerc is 19.00.

The one that interests me is Charles Leclerc.

He may be being dismissed too easily and he looks to offer some each way value. Leclerc loves street circuits and some drivers go well on them. Sergio Perez was a much derided driver, but he was mustard on the street tracks.

Track Record

Leclerc was second here in sprint qualifying and the sprint race last year. He was on pole in Monaco and Baku in 2024, two of only three poles he had last season.

Then we come to the Ferrari. Since the Chinese GP, when both cars got disqualified, the car has had to be run in a less than ideal setup, a bit too far off the ground to generate maximum downforce. That has compromised their qualifying in ‘normal’ races as the setup for qualifying is locked into their race setup.

But this is a sprint weekend. Ferrari can run it low for sprint qualifying and the race, fairly safe in the knowledge that they will not suffer the excessive plank wear that they would with a full fuel load and full race distance. The car then comes out of parc ferme conditions and the setups can be changed before qualifying for the GP, when they once again go into parc ferme conditions.

Optimise Setup For Sprint

The fact that we have two separate events, with different demands on the cars, and with two distinct parc ferme periods, changes things for Ferrari. They can run the car in the best possible setup for the sprint, and compromise it for the race, to make sure they comply with the rules.

That may still not be enough, but I suspect that Leclerc will be much closer to the pace in the sprint event than in the actual Grand Prix. Since the Chinese GP he has qualified 4/3/4. He doesn’t have to improve too much more to be in the frame come Friday afternoon for sprint qualifying, and Saturday’s sprint race should follow that script.

2025 Miami GP Tip: 1 point e/w Charles Leclerc to win the Miami Sprint Race @ 19.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power, PokerStars (e/w 1-3 1/5 the odds)

Sticking with the Sprint race theme, there might be some logic in taking a chance on the rookies. Those that have come from F2 racing last year are used to having just one session of practice to find their best setup. They are not going to be threatening the top 8 places, but they may beat a teammate in a match up.

Bortoleto, Doohan and Bearman all outqualified their more experienced teammates in Chinese sprint qualifying and Bortoleto and Bearman beat their teammates in the sprint race. Maybe we can revisit this theme for sprint qualifying.

There is one final ante post bet and that is for who will be fastest in FP1. I can only find one firm pricing this up, but there may be others.

We have had five FP1 sessions so far and Lando Norris has been fastest in four and was only 0.007 slower than Gasly in Jeddah last time out. In one of his post session interviews, Norris said that the McLaren did not have the kind of advantage other drivers said it has. He said that McLaren run their cars with a higher PU mode in practice, which makes them look quick, but come qualifying, it is much closer. That would make sense.

2025 Miami GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to be fastest in FP1 @ 2.60 with Ladbrokes

There will be brief updates for sprint qualifying on Friday, Sprint race and Grand Prix Qualifying on Saturday and the usual update on Sunday.

-JamesPunt