2025 Monaco GP Outright Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Monaco GP outright betting preview. It was another tough weekend at the Emilia-Romagna GP but surely our luck is due to change at some point.

2025 Monaco GP Preview

The carnage continued in Imola. Having just missed out on a big payout in qualifying, our 6.50 bet on Alonso to finish in the points lost, despite him starting fifth on a track position dependant circuit. Poor strategy didn’t help, nor not having any new tyres for the race. He got within 0.10 seconds of tenth place on the penultimate lap but couldn’t get past Tsunoda to land the bet.

Hadjar finishing in the points was the only highlight of the race and it was another losing weekend. 4.46 points lost taking the season to date tally to -28.44 points.

This weekend we move on to Monaco and another chance to lose more money.

The Monaco GP is either the jewel in the crown of F1 racing, or not deserving of its place on the calendar, depending on your point of view.

New ‘Monaco only’ Regulation

Last year’s race hit a new low standard for an F1 ‘race’. There was big crash on lap one which caused a red flag. The cars returned to the pits and made their mandatory change of tyre compounds.

When the race restarted, the cars just tiptoed around the track at low speeds just to avoid making another pit stop. The first ten cars on the grid, finished in exactly the same order in the race. It was a simple procession. We were on Leclerc to win, so there was some compensation, but it was a joke.

To try and avoid such nonsense happening again this year, the FIA have mandated that all the drivers must use three different sets of tyres and use at least two different tyre compounds, if dry. If wet the two different compound rule would not apply, but the three set rule would still apply, i.e. two tyre changes.

Two Pitstops Minimum

Effectively this means making at least two pitstops, but the rule only says that three different sets of tyres must be used at the 2025 Monaco GP. If we get a red flag, that means a tyre change can be made then, which would comply with the rules, and only one ‘proper’ pitstop would then be required.

Now this will pan out remains to be seen. The teams strategists only look for the best way to get the best result for their team. The sporting spectacle means nothing. They know that overtaking is all but impossible and that track position is king. Tyre degradation is very low and the chance of a safety car/red flag (s) is very high.

Normal practice at Monaco for drivers further down the grid is to start on the medium compound and run for as long as possible, hoping to get a safety car deployment and the chance for a cheap pitstop, time wise. Those at the front tended to start on the soft, open up a lead to the slower medium shod cars, and pit when a gap in the traffic opens up.

Strategists Key

The teams strategists will be front and centre of finding a way to exploit the new rules this weekend. If you must make two stops, why not make one on lap two and the other on lap three and then run to the end?

Or make one stop on lap two, stick on the very soft C6 tyre and run flat out in the clean air, waiting for a safety car to make your second? Of course, if more than one driver does that, only one gets the clean air advantage.

That might work well for cars nearer the back, but the ones at the front would have to do something different. Pushing very hard in the opening laps is one idea, opening up more gaps and screwing the early stoppers if we get a safety car later in the race.

The point is that we have to expect the unexpected and the outcome of the race may well be more to do with people executing the strategy rather than the driver.

Game The System

One loophole that has been ruled out is to make one stop but change the tyres twice while stationary. The tyres have to be ‘used’ meaning that the car has to leave the pitlane after the change of tyres. We can be sure that the strategists will have been working on various plans to try and ‘game the system’ and someone may come up with a much more cunning plan than the others.

The only reason that all this is necessary is that you can’t really have an F1 race around this track. The only way to avoid the farce of 2024 is to introduce some artificial ‘tricks’ to introduce some jeopardy into proceedings. The problem is that these artificial tricks often have unseen consequences and you move from one farce to another.

The 2025 Monaco GP Track

The slowest track on the calendar. Overtaking is all but impossible but that is not to say that the pole sitter always wins. Since the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014 we have had ten races and six pole position winners. The other four came from second twice, and third, also twice.

Going back further in time we had one of the biggest priced race winners in history when 301.00 shot Olivier Panis won for Ligier in 1996.

That was a wet race and saw only three cars still running at the end. Panis had started from fourteenth on the grid. That race was the polar opposite of 99% of races at Monaco which are usually won from or very near the front of the grid, which brings us to qualifying. While the Grand Prix of Monaco is very likely to be a procession, qualifying is arguably the most exciting session of the season.

Skill Required

The skill required to thread a big, but very fast F1 car around this narrow, barrier lined, sinuous track is enormous. It sorts the wheat from the chaff and get it wrong and your weekend can be over very quickly.

It can take drivers years to work it out, even the good ones. Max Verstappen used to crash a lot here and didn’t win his first race here until his sixth visit.

Charles Leclerc, a native Monegasque, also crashed a lot in his home race. He got pole position in 2021 but crashed just after setting his time. That caused a red flag and ended the session, denying his teammate Carlos Sainz a chance to get pole for himself.

Damaged Car

Leclerc was not able to capitalise on that pole as it was discovered that his car was damaged as a result of the crash and that was only realised when he did his formation lap. He had to withdraw and his grid spot remained empty.

Verstappen started from the second place grid spot but was effectively the pole sitter. He won. Leclerc had to wait until last year to get pole, and he was able to convert that into a win.

With the track being so slow, the cars don’t generate as much aerodynamic downforce so the cars will be running track specific ‘barn door’ rear wings to try and find more grip. Cars that have good mechanical grip, good traction and thus that are good in slow corners, will do well here.

The 2025 Monaco GP Weather

Rain is no stranger to the Monaco GP. Three of the last eight have been rain affected. In 2016, Lewis Hamilton won from third on the grid and Perez finished third from seventh on the gird. Pole sitter Ricciardo was second. The race saw seven drivers not classified.

In the 2022 rain affected race, it was Perez who won from third on the grid. Charles Lelcerc had started on pole, with Ferrari teammate Carlos Sainz in second place. In a wet -drying race, Ferrari dropped the strategy ball, ruining Leclerc’s race. He finished fourth in the end. Three drivers were not classified.

2023 saw a dry-wet race. The change in conditions saw a lot of drivers spinning a hitting the barriers, but amazingly, all but one were classified as finishing the race, which was won by Verstappen from pole position. Indeed the first three on the grid finished in the same order.

The forecast for this weekend does have the threat of rain, but for now, only on Saturday afternoon. Friday will be dry and mostly sunny with the temperature reaching twenty one degrees.

Saturday will be partly sunny, highs of twenty one degrees but with a 65% chance of showers in the afternoon (down from 80% earlier in the week). Sunday should be mostly sunny, dry with highs of twenty two degrees. The chance of rain is 18% for the race.

The Tyres

As is always the case, Pirelli will bring their softest compounds to Monaco, and those are the same as were used last weekend in Imola. The difference is that with this being the slowest track on the calendar, the tyres do not get much of a workout.

The new ultra soft C6 compound that was introduced at Imola, was too soft for that circuit. Most teams used it in qualifying, but even then, it was struggling to last a lap before losing performance. Aston Martin and George Russell opted to run the medium tyres in Q3 as it was faster for them.

On the lap of Monaco the C6 will be fine for a flying lap, and probably fine for a number of laps. Good enough for use over a race stint? With a mandated two stops, it might be that it could be used for a short stint, maybe towards the end of the race when the fuel load is low.

But would it make any difference? You could have the driver in front on an old, slow, well used set of hards. The chasing driver has brand new soft tyres that are way faster. He would still have to get past the slower car in front, and that is all but impossible.

What is the Plan?

The usual plan for Monaco is to qualify as high up the grid as possible and then defend that position. On-track overtaking is unlikely to be in the strategists playbook. The best chance of gaining places, or losing them, is at the pit stops. They need to be both well timed, and perfectly executed.

Many a driver’s race has been ruined by a sticky wheel nut, or a dozy pit crew not having the tyres ready. Being a race strategist at Monaco must be a very difficult job. It is hard if it all goes to plan, but the inevitable safety car can throw everything up in the air. Luck can play a huge role here.

With at least two pitstops per driver this year there are two chances to be heroes, or zeros.

2025 Monaco GP Qualifying

While qualifying is not the be all and end all of winning at Monaco, it is very important to be able to get as high up the grid as possible.

Of the twenty drivers on the grid in 2025, only four have scored a pole position at Monaco. Charles Leclerc has three, Hamilton and Alonso two each, and Verstappen one. Honourable mentions go to Piastri, who was second here in his second attempt, and also Sainz who was second once and has been on the first or second row for the last three years. Ocon has a high qualifying of fourth, Norris a high of fourth, Gasly fifth and Russell fifth.

Piastri Prolific

Who is the best qualifier of 2025? That is Piastri. Three pole positions and an average qualifying position of 2.00. Verstappen also has three poles and an average of 2.71. Norris is the only other driver to get a pole position in 2025, but his average is just 4.00 and his qualifying confidence is shot.

George Russell has the third best average with 3.43, Leclerc is fifth on 6.14. The rest of the field really have not been a feature in qualifying. Antonelli had a sprint pole in Miami and a third in qualifying proper there as well, but his average is 7.86. He has not run an F1 car here and only had one year in F2, and just the two races in Monaco. He has a lot to learn.

Max v Oscar

This year’s form suggests that the likely pole contenders at the 2025 Monaco GP are Piastri and Verstappen. Verstappen has only got the one pole here from nine attempts, which given his overall record, suggests that this is not one of his strongest tracks.

However, the time he did get pole in 2023 was one of the great F1 qualifying laps of all time. He has the ability to pull one out of the bag, even if the car is not quite there.

Red Bull were not at their best on streets circuits when in their pomp, or should I say Verstappen wasn’t. Sergio Perez did most of his winning on street circuits. This year’s Red Bull has been at its best on the faster tracks and in faster corners. The car has had some recent upgrades that have improved it, but this is the acid test for slow corner performance.

Piastri has only been here twice in F1 and to get second in his second visit is a hint that he is good here. He certainly hasn’t stuffed in the wall the way that Verstappen and Leclerc have done.

Ferrari Set To Struggle?

Last year, the Ferrari was very strong in slow corners, and a good kerb rider, That made it no surprise that he was on pole again. This season, the car has not been good in slow corners and is not a great kerb rider. After last week’s Emilia Romagna qualifying, Leclerc said that Monaco was going to be very difficult in this year’s car.

That leaves Piastri as the logical choice. The McLaren is a good all-rounder and maybe the better car in slow corners. It also has good traction out of the slow corners.

Of course, if we do get a downpour during qualifying, you may as well just draw lots. There could be crashes, red flags, the session could go on and on and throw up a random winner. Qualifying here is a great spectacle and we don’t need any rain to make it thrilling.

Driver Records

Monaco is a real driver’s track, one where the pilot can make a difference. It is a slow lap and the drivers input is a bigger percentage of performance than at any other track. You want a track specialist on your side.

This a track that has produced many multiple winners. Senna won six, Graham Hill and Schumacher five each. Alain Prost had four. Of the drivers on this year’s grid, Hamilton has three wins here, Verstappen and Alonso two. So who gets the nod as a track specialist of this year’s crop?

Six Monaco Debutants

We have six drivers who are making their F1 debut at Monaco. They will have raced in junior Formula here, but these big cars are a different kettle of fish. That puts a damper on the chances of Antonelli, Hadjar, Lawson, Bortoleto, Bearman and Colapinto.

Colapinto will be interesting to watch this weekend. His honeymoon period at Williams was ended when he started crashing and he finished the season under a cloud. He returned at last week’s Emilia Romagna GP and he crashed in qualifying.

Crashing an F1 car under the cost gap regulations is now frowned upon. When budget was not an issue it was OK, finding the limits and so on. Now, it means money spent on repairs cannot be spent improving performance. Drivers that have a crasher’s reputation will not have a long career. Colapinto brings the team millions of dollars from Argentinian sponsors, but how many crashes does that buy him?

Colapinto is on crash watch this weekend. It is very easy to make a small mistake and crash here. If he doesn’t bin it at some stage, I will be surprised.

No Standouts

There is no one on the grid in 2025 who I would say are up there with the greats. Yes, Hamilton has three wins, but he has had seventeen starts in decent cars. His last four races here have produced finishes of 7/8/4/7. This year’s Ferrari has proved problematic most of the time and things looks difficult for him.

Charles Leclerc has three poles which proves he can go very well here, but he only converted one into a win and that was in the joke ‘race’ last year. He is relying on Ferrari strategists to do a big part of the job, and that is not good.

Max Verstappen has won two of the last four races here, but it took him quite a while to stop crashing here. With the Red Bull improving he will be in the mix, but maybe not favourite.

Piastri has very limited experience here with just two races, but he finished 10/2 and only last year’s car was competitive. He may have what it takes to be a track specialist.

Sainz Likes Monaco

Carlos Sainz is good here. He has not won but had three podiums in the last four years and he has always finished, and always in the points.

Pierre Gasly has never had a properly competitive car but he has had four top seven finishes and only missed the points in one of his six races here. His race results have been worse than his qualifying results in 2025, so this track offers him a great chance to capitalise on his one lap pace.

2025 Monaco GP Summary

Monaco is different to the other races, primarily because this is not a racetrack. As the cars have got bigger, they have outgrown the circuit. You can’t start knocking down buildings to make the track wider and you just have to accept that while it is spectacular, and a great test for the drivers, you can’t expect great racing.

The best you can get is events that may change the race order, botched pits stops or safety cars making and breaking drivers races. However, in all likelihood, the real business is done in qualifying.

The early weather forecast is giving a fairly high chance of rain affecting qualifying, in which case everything is up in the air.

Qualifying Crucial

The problem with ante-post betting here is that everything is so dependent on qualifying. If you leave your bets until after qualifying, the prices will be low as the results are very likely to be set by grid position.

Maybe the new regulation will change that, but certainly on past experience, you don’t tend to get much value post-qualifying. In my odds compiling days, pricing up the Monaco GP post-qualifying was like having the day off.

It is one race where it is better to make your bets early and hope you are right. The fact that we have the potential for a wet qualifying session means that there is a higher chance of a very mixed up grid and that is far from ideal.

Perhaps the best strategy this weekend is to look to place more bets for the race on Saturday, before the qualifying session starts. At least the weather forecast should be more accurate, and we will have seen the practice form pan out.

If you leave the bets until after qualifying, you will have a much better chance of getting winners, but the good ship value will have set sail.

2025 Monaco GP Ante Post Bets

Piastri is the 3.00 favourite, Norris 3.50, Verstappen 4.50, Leclerc 9.00. The rest are 21.00 or bigger. If we are to get a mad priced winner, it will be if we get a wet qualifying and/or race. That is hard to predict.

To try and keep things simple, the golden rules of Monaco GP betting are to back drivers with a proven track record, and drivers with good one lap pace. Having a good car helps, but with raw speed not being a pre-eminent requirement here, a less competitive car on ‘normal’ tracks can be more effective at this venue.

Promising Piastri

Piastri has been the best qualifier of 2025 so far. With just two F1 races here he doesn’t have enough form to really judge his track form, but his performance here last year was very promising. He is in a very competitive car which should be fine in the slow corners. It also has good traction out of corners and the McLaren should be a useful weapon.

The McLaren produces a lot of downforce which is all important here. It copes very well in hot conditions and it would be a surprise if the car was anything less than very competitive this weekend.

His teammate is having a crisis of confidence in qualifying. Norris is happy with his race performances, but he admits to having lost his abilities to be the best over one lap. This is one place where you do not want to be lacking in confidence. Norris has a track record that is OK, but nothing that screams ‘back me!’

Verstappen In The Mix

Verstappen now knows how to get the job done here and as a driver’s track he must enter the equation. His car may not be as well suited to the demands of the track as it was at Imola, however.

With the margin of victory in the qualifying sessions so tiny in 2025, a small advantage in car performance may be the difference. The revised Red Bull has improved its performance over kerbs and bumps, a real weakness in last year’s car. That will help around this track but the cars real strength is in fast corners.

Russell has been very good in qualifying but not enough to get a pole position, and his track record here is nothing great. The Mercedes is a good all-rounder, has good traction, but is said to struggle in hot conditions in terms of tyre management. The temperatures this weekend will not be that hot and the lack of stress on the tyres should help. Russell may be able to improve on his run of three consecutive fifth places here.

Leclerc is not holding out much hope given the qualities of this year’s Ferrari. That goes for Hamilton as well. They are waiting until Barcelona next weekend to unleash their true 2025 charger.

Can Sainz Surprise?

If we are to get a surprise challenger for a win or podium, the two Williams drivers may be the ones to do it. The car is good enough to be giving Ferrari a headache, and sometimes the Mercedes. With Red Bull once more a one man team, there is potential for a Williams podium, with a little luck.

Sainz has a good track record and has been strong in recent qualifying sessions. He is a good wet weather driver, and if we were to get a rain affected qualifying session, maybe he could cause a surprise?

Things have not worked out for him in the races so far, but his one lap pace is good. Sainz was fastest in Q2 in Imola last weekend and that may have been a hint. The car is best in medium to high speed corners, and decent in short duration slow corners. It is long, slow corners where it struggles.

Track May Suit Williams

Most of the corners here are short and sweet, but the third corner is a long turn and corners five, six and seven do drag on. It is hard to say if this is a ‘Williams track’ or not, but certainly most of it does seem to be suitable.

One driver who I will back ante post is Pierre Gasly. He has gone well here in the past in unfancied machinery, good enough to say that is a bit of a track specialist in the midfield sense. Five top ten finishes from six starts, with a worst finish of eleventh is solid stuff.

The Alpine’s lack of power and its weaker race pace are not the handicap they are at normal tracks. Gasly has made Q3 in three of the last four races in 2025 and with the car having good traction, Gasly looks a reasonable shout for another top ten finish.

2025 Monaco GP Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to win @ 3.00 with Livescorebet

2025 Monaco GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes

I want to back Carlos Sainz, but in which market? The most realistic prospect is for him to finally cop a top six finish. He has qualified sixth in the last three races, and his teammate has had three top six finishes.

So, the car has the pace to do it, and it seems that it should be reasonably well suited to the demands of the track. The driver has a good track record and knows how to get the car around this unique layout.

There is a reasonable chance that we get a rain affected qualifying session and that could open the door to some strange things happening. Sainz is a decent wet weather racer and maybe he could be one of the surprises? There is only a small chance of that happening but it is there. I will have two bets on him, just in case.

2025 Monaco GP Tip: 0.5 point Carlos Sainz to finish on the podium @ 51.00 with Betvictor

2025 Monaco GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish in the top six @ 4.33 with Skybet, Hills, Boylesports

-JamesPunt