2025 Monaco GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Monaco GP Qualifying preview. You can find his ante-post preview and tips by clicking here.

2025 Monaco GP Qualifying

The main event of the weekend, qualifying.

We have had five qualifying sessions that have had a winning margin of less than 0.100. Another micro margin? Maybe not.

From what we have seen so far, Charles Leclerc is the fastest driver. Fastest in every session and by an average margin of 0.163. In the more relevant FP3 Leclerc was 0.294 ahead of Verstappen.

Of course, Ferrari were going to be slow here, they are poor in slow corners, their qualifying pace is poor, it was going to be a difficult weekend. And then we get total domination from Leclerc. This season just gets more unclear.

Qualifying Specialist

At least we know that Leclerc is a qualifying specialist here with three poles under his belt already, so from that point of view, it is not a surprise. Yesterday it was because they had their engines turned up, but today, in the dress rehearsal, he was further ahead.

Leclerc’s best qualifying position in 2025 so far was fifth in Bahrain and on average he has been 6.14 in qualifying. Now he is favourite to be on pole in Monaco.

Last year Leclerc was expected to get pole and he was fastest in FP2 and FP3 before bagging pole. This year he didn’t have a chance and has been fastest in every session.

Max The Danger

Verstappen looks the closest competitor, second in FP1 and FP3. He has had three poles already in 2025 and was just 0.034s off pole last weekend. Verstappen has just the one pole position here so he doesn’t have the same sort of track record as Leclerc.

Leclerc was the 3.30 favourite to be fastest qualifier after FP3 ended but is now 2.40, Verstappen was 4.33 (both with Betfair) but now 3.25, Norris and Piastri are both 5.00 but McLaren were three tenths off the pace. Nobody else is in the frame, unless it rains.

Yes, remember the weather forecast that had a high chance of showers for qualifying. Well the weather has been lovely so far, hardly a cloud in the sky, yet there is still said to be a 50% of a shower, but only a light one and before the start of the session. I doubt it.

2025 Monaco GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.75 with Livescorebet

There are a couple of match bets which are interesting, if a little confusing.

At Racing Bulls, we have been used to Hadjar bossing Lawson. He is 4-1 in qualifying, but this weekend, it is the Kiwi who has been impressive. Fifth in FP2 and seventh in FP3. Hadjar hit the wall in FP1 and that may have rattled him a little. This track is all about finding a rhythm and building confidence and so far, Lawson has done that.

2025 Monaco GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to out qualify Issack Hadjar @ 1.82 with Livescorebet

The other is at Mercedes. George Russell has been struggling so far. He usually right up there in practice but he hasn’t even been in the top 10 in FP2 and FP3. Antonelli has, only just, but he has been faster in the last two sessions. Again, Russell has bossed Antonelli in qualifying and is 6-1 up so far, but maybe today Antonelli can do what he did in Miami (twice) and out qualify the team’s number 1.

2025 Monaco GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to out qualify George Russell @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt