2025 NFL Divisional Round Picks

Wildcard Weekend didn’t go as Jan Keys had hoped but he’s confident he can get back on track over the next couple of days. Four matches, four bets, check out Jan’s 2025 NFL Divisional Round preview and picks below.

Saturday Games

HOUSTON TEXANS (10-7) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (15-2)

Saturday 18th January 21:30

VEGAS LINE: KANSAS CITY -10; TOTAL POINTS 42

JAN KEYS RATINGS: KANSAS CITY -7.7; TOTAL POINTS 43.4

Kansas City come into this with most of their players having had three weeks to prepare. Forget the Denver match, when they played the reserves, and they had a 15-1 season losing only to Buffalo away. Looking at this season’s results, KC haven’t blown away many teams but like a good racehorse, they know how to do just enough to win.

Houston were 2.5 point underdogs last week at home to the Chargers but they dismissed them with ease, winning 32-12 with a good all round performance. QB CJ Stroud had good passing numbers, RB Joe Mixon rushed for 106 yards and the defense limited the Chargers to just four field goals.

Whereas KC have had weeks off, Houston had RB Joe Mixon on limited training on Wednesday with an ankle injury and Tight End Dalton Shultz was also limited with a shoulder injury. However, both men are likely to play.

Stats and Key Player Ratings

Offense: Kansas City 15th; Houston 21st

Defense: Kansas City 8th; Houston 5th

Quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes (KC) 18th; CJ Stroud (Hou) 31st

Running Backs (KC): Kareem Hunt 34th; Patrick Mahomes 65th

Running Backs (Hou): Joe Mixon 11th; Dameon Pierce 45th; CJ Stroud 80th

Receivers (KC): Xavier Worthy 79th; DeAndre Hopkins 90th; Travis Kelce 102nd

Receivers (Hou): Nico Collins 4th; Tank Dell 62nd (Out); Stefon Diggs 119th (Out)

Player Prop Lines

QB Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes (KC) 250.5; CJ Stroud (Hou) 228.5

Rushing Yards (KC): Isiah Pacheco 41.5; Kareem Hunt 34.5; Patrick Mahomes 23.5

Rushing Yards (Hou): Joe Mixon 57.5; CJ Stroud 14.5

Receiving Yards (KC): Travis Kelce 53.5; Xavier Worthy 50.5; Marquise Brown 39.5; DeAndre Hopkins 29.5; Noah Gray 10.5; Kareem Hunt 6.5; Isiah Pachero 5.5

Receiving Yards (Hou): Nico Collins 82.5; Dalton Schultz 36.5; John Metchie III 33.5; Robert Woods 19.5 Joe Mixon 15.5 Xavier Hutchinson 12.5

Picks

When these two teams met in Week 16 Kansas won 27-19. The line was KC -3.5, today’s line is KC -8. It’s a big mark up from 3.5 to 10, especially as Houston played so well last week and their defense was in great form. I am going to take Houston to cover the spread as they are more than one TD underdogs and if their defense turns up in top form, they can push The Chiefs all the way.

2025 NFL Divisional Round Pick: HOUSTON TEXANS + 10 POINTS

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (12-5) @ DETROIT LIONS (15-2)

Sunday 19th January 01:00

VEGAS LINE: DETROIT -10; TOTAL POINTS 56

JAN KEYS RATINGS: DETROIT -12.8; TOTAL POINTS 54.3

Detroit won the big divisional game in Week 17 against Minnesota 31-9 to earn the NFC Number One Seed. They have had two weeks to prepare for this match as they earned a bye last week. Detroit do know how to blow teams away when they are in top form so the minus 10 may not be a problem if they are in the mood.

Washington had a really good regular season and achieved much more than was expected of them at the outset. They are on a six game winning streak so they are no pushovers and that run included a win against Philadelphia (who are on a par with Detroit). If Jayden Daniels is on his game, this may be closer than the oddsmakers think.

Stats and Key Player Ratings

Offense: Detroit 2nd; Washington 7th

Defense: Detroit 19th; Washington 12th

Quarterbacks: Jared Goff (Det) 6th; Jayden Daniels (Was) 17th

Running Backs (Det): Jahmyr Gibbs 3rd; David Montgomery 21st

Running Backs (Was): Jayden Daniels 14th; Brian Robinson Jr 26th

Receivers (Det): Jameson Williams 7th; Amon-Ra St Brown 18th;Sam La Porta 50th

Receivers (Was): Terry McLaurin 8th; Zac Ertz 82nd; Noah Brown 100th

Player Prop Lines

QB Passing Yards: Jared Goff 270.5; Jayden Daniels 234.5

Rushing Yards (Det): Jahmyr Gibbs 84.5; David Montgomery 47.5

Rushing Yards (Was): Jayden Daniels 54.5; Brian Robinson Jr 34.5; Austin Ekeler 23.5

Receiving Yards (Det): Jameson Williams 53.5; Amon-Ra St Brown 77.5; Sam La Porta 49.5; Jahmyr Gibbs 24.5; David Montgomery 15.5; Tim Patrick 14.5

Receiving Yards( Was): Terry McLaurin 68.5; Dyami Brown 30.5; Olamide Zaccheaus 32.5; Zach Ertz 29.5; Austin Ekeler 23.5; Brian Robinson Jr 8.5

Picks

Amon-Ra St Brown’s Receiving Yards this season are: 13, 119, 75, 45, 37, 112, 7, 56, 60, 161, 62, 73, 43, 193, 70, 60, 77.

He went over 77.5 four times and under 77.5 13 times. Detroit tends to throw to St Brown, Williams and La Porta and all three will be playing, so they should be sharing the workload agains and I see no reason not to play the under line.

2025 NFL Divisional Round Pick: Amon-Ra St Brown Under 77.5 Yards Receiving

As for the match line, I have no strong opinion either way. If Detroit play as well as they can, 10 points could be easy for them to cover. However, Washington are a capable team if they are at their best, so they may stay in the game.

Sunday’s Games

LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-7) @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (14-3)

Sunday 19th January 20:00

VEGAS LINE: PHILADELPHIA -6; TOTAL POINTS 43.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: PHILADELPHIA -9.8; TOTAL POINTS 45.9

Both teams played in Wild Card games last weekend. Philadelphia beat Green Bay 22-10 and the LA Rams beat Minnesota 27-9 in Arizona. Philadelphia turned a 2-2 season into a 14-3 and are looking like a strong Superbowl contender. The Eagles went to the Rams in Week 12 and won 37-20 with RB Saquon Barkley rushing for a Philadelphia franchise record with 255 yards and two TDs.

With LA beset by wild forest fires, the Rams’ home Wild Card game was switched to Arizona. Although slight underdogs, they dispatched the bitterly disappointing Minnesota Vikings fairly comfortably. Going to Philadelphia will be a bigger problem, especially with their memories of that heavy Week 12 defeat.

Stats and Key Player Ratings

Offense: Philadelphia 7th; LA Rams 14th

Defense: Philadelphia 1st; LA Rams 25th

Quarterbacks: Jalen Hurts (Phi) 8th; Matthew Stafford (LAR) 9th

Running Backs (Phi): Saquon Barkley 2nd; Jalen Hurts 25th

Running Backs (LAR): Kyren Williams 7th; Blake Corum 112th

Receivers (Phi): AJ Brown 9th; DeVonta Smith 38th; Dallas Goedert 98th

Receivers: (LAR) Demarcus Robinson 37th; Puka Nacua 39th; Cooper Kupp 73rd

Player Prop Lines

QB Passing Yards: Jalen Hurts (Phi) 206.5; Matthew Stafford (LAR) 228.5

Rushing Yards (Phi): Saquon Barkley 111.5; Jalen Hurts 38.5; Kenneth Gainwell 9.5

Rushing Yards (LAR): Kyren Williams 75.5; Puka Nacua 2.5; Matthew Stafford 0.5

Receiving Yards (Phi): AJ Brown 70.5; DeVonta Smith 53.5; Dallas Goedert 36.5

Receiving Yards (LAR): Puka Nacua 87.5; Cooper Kupp 39.5; Demarcus Robinson 21.5

Picks

This match is stacked towards a Philadelphia victory. The Eagles have a good QB, a fantastic RB and the number one defense in the NFL. They have had one extra day to prepare and they also have home field advantage.

The LA Rams are slowly improving and their own defense is very solid with some good recent numbers. Take away the nonsense Seattle match and the Rams defense have conceded 6, 9, 9 and 9 points in their last four proper matches. Also, last weekend this Rams defense sacked Minnesota QB Sam Darnold nine times.

However, Philadelphia and Barkley rarely find scoring points an issue and I think they can cover the six point spread.

2025 NFL Divisional Round Pick: PHILADELPHIA -6 POINTS

BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-5) @ BUFFALO BILLS (13-4)

Sunday 19th January 23:30

VEGAS LINE: BALTIMORE -1; TOTAL POINTS 51.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: BUFFALO -1; TOTAL POINTS 54.7

The match of the weekend sees the best two teams in the AFC going at each other in a winner takes all showdown. Both these teams are in good form and are likely to go touchdown to touchdown with each other.

My pre-season Superbowl pick Baltimore are in great shape and comfortably dispatched Pittsburgh for the second time in a month last weekend. QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry remain in superb form. Baltimore destroyed Buffalo 35-10 in Week 4 when Baltimore were 2.5 point favorites. The Ravens will be hoping for another rare off day for the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo are seeded second in the AFC and are a very good side, good enough to head to the Superbowl if all goes well for them. The Bills, like the Ravens, have a strong offense with QB Josh Allen pulling the strings and RB James Cook having a great season. Buffalo beat Denver 31-7 last weekend with little fuss.

Stats And Key Player Ratings

Offense: Buffalo 9th; Baltimore 1st

Defense: Buffalo 16th; Baltimore 9th

Quarterbacks: Josh Allen (Buf) 2nd; Lamar Jackson (Bal) 1st

Running Backs (Buf): James Cook 8th; Josh Allen 27th

Running Backs (Bal): Derrick Henry 1st; Lamar Jackson 19th

Receivers (Buf): Keon Coleman 29th; Khalil Shakir 57th;Ty Johnson 76th

Receivers (Bal): Rashod Bateman 20th; Zay Flowers 25th; Mark Andrews 44th

Player Prop Lines

QB Passing Yards: Josh Allen (Buf) 238.5; Lamar Jackson(Bal) 221.5

Rushing Yards (Buf): James Cook 53.5; Josh Allen 45.5

Rushing Yards (Bal): Derrick Henry 95.5; Lamar Jackson 52.5

Receiving Yards (Buf): Khalil Shakir 53.5; Dalton Kincaid 31.5; Keon Coleman 24.5; Amari Cooper 22.5 Mack Hollins 17.5; James Cook 13.5; Dawson Knox 12.5

Receiving Yards (Bal): Rashod Bateman 41.5; Mark Andrews 39.5; Isaiah Likely 34.5; Justice Hill 21.5 Derrick Henry 5.5 (Zay Flowers is 50-50 to play)

Picks

Although this match could go either way, in my opinion the Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL. For me, Lamar Jackson is streets ahead of any other Quarterback and he isn’t too bad as a support running back either.

2025 NFL Divisional Round Pick: BALTIMORE -1 POINT

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-JanKeys