2025 NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks

Jan Keys had a bit of a nightmare in Week 18. However, the regular season is now over and this is where we start getting serious as the playoffs begin. Check out Jan’s 2025 NFL Wildcard Weekend preview and picks below.

L.A.CHARGERS (11-6) VS HOUSTON TEXANS (10-7)

Date & Time: SATURDAY 11th JANUARY, 21.30.

VEGAS LINE: L.A.CHARGERS -2.5; TOTAL POINTS 42.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: L.A. CHARGERS -1.3; TOTAL POINTS 45.7

Houston (Seeded 4) won the AFC South with a Divisional Record of 5-1, finishing up with 10 wins overall. QB C.J. Stroud had a great rookie season but this year has been much tougher and he hasn’t lived up to the high standards that were expected. My weekly ratings have seen Houston slide downwards and a home defeat two weeks ago to Baltimore 31-2 shows how far the Texans have fallen.

The L.A. Chargers are seeded fifth. Whereas Houston is on a downward spiral, it’s fair to say the Chargers’ form is improving with QB Justin Herbert finding top form. The Chargers have had a couple of soft games coming into the playoffs with comfortable wins on the road against New England and Las Vegas. That should set them up perfectly for this and I think they can win and cover the spread.

2025 NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND PICK: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2.5 POINTS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-7) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-5)

Date & Time: SUNDAY 12th JANUARY, 01.00.

VEGAS LINE: BALTIMORE -10; TOTAL POINTS 43.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: BALTIMORE -13.2; TOTAL POINTS 50.1

These AFC North Division rivals have to face each other for a third time this season with the earlier results being Pittsburgh 18 Baltimore 16 and Baltimore 34 Pittsburgh 17.

Baltimore (seeded 3) come into the playoffs in top form and have looked virtually unbeatable in their last four matches. With QB Lamar Jackson (my top rated QB) and Derrick Henry (my top rated RB) leading this team, it’s hard to see how Pittsburgh will contain them. Although they have lost five matches this season I still maintain Baltimore are the best team in the NFL, although only marginally, and they should win this match.

Pittsburgh (seeded 6) lost out in a “must win” match last week to Cincinnati 19-17. It was tough for Pittsburgh to take as they would rather be travelling to Houston than Baltimore for this Wild Card match. Pittsburgh has lost four in a row but all against very good teams. QB Russell Wilson has struggled in recent weeks and will need to be at his best to give the Steelers any chance of winning this match.

Baltimore will probably play a running game with Henry likely rushing for 100+ yards. The Ravens are missing WR Zay Flowers, who is a key receiver for this team, but they do have other options. However, while I think the Ravens will win, I expect Pittsburgh to stay in the match until the end and cover the ten point spread.

2025 NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND PICK: PITTSBURGH +10 POINTS

DENVER BRONCOS (10-7) @ BUFFALO BILLS (13-4)

Date & Time: Sunday 12th January, 18:00.

VEGAS LINE: BUFFALO -8.5; TOTAL POINTS 47

JAN KEYS RATINGS: BUFFALO -8.9; TOTAL POINTS 54

Buffalo are number two seeds in the playoffs and they rested QB Josh Allen in last week’s dead rubber defeat against New England. This Buffalo side has had a strong season with many big performances. I really can’t see them losing at home to Denver with QB Allen (ranked 2) and RB Cook (ranked 8) leading the team.

Denver (seeded 7) will be pleased to make the playoffs with a team considered mediocre before the season started. Rookie QB Bo Nix (Ranked 15) has had a good season and has done well with this team. Last weekend they beat Kansas’ third team 38-0 which would’ve been a good workout.

In a 17 match season Denver has only been beaten by more than 8.5 points once. That was when Baltimore took them apart 41-10. Yes, this Bills team can also do it on their day but Denver has a better defense so they could keep the score line down while scoring points of their own. It could be closer than the Vegas oddsmakers think.

2025 NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND PICK: DENVER BRONCOS +8.5 POINTS

GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-8) @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-6)

Date & Time: Sunday 12th January, 21:30.

VEGAS LINE: Philadelphia -4.5; Total Points 48

JAN KEYS RATINGS: Philadelphia -4.3; Total Points 47

The NFC Opener between these two teams was in Brazil with the Eagles winning 34-29. A lot has happened since then with both teams improving since that game.

Philadelphia (seeded 2) hope to have QB Jalen Hurts back from injury and this will be good news. They usually rely on RB Saquon Barkley being unstoppable and he has rushed for over 2000 yards this season. Philadelphia has won their last 7 home matches.

Green Bay (seeded 7) have also had some special moments this season and are better than their 9-7 record suggests. Like Philadelphia, they also have QB Jordan Love coming back from injury and a very good RB in Josh Jacobs who will be hoping for a big game.

These are two good teams, I just think Philadelphia has been consistently better. I’m not 100% sure they will cover the spread but I feel they are the stronger team.

2025 NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND PICK: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4.5 POINTS

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (12-5) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (10-7)

Date & Time: Monday 13th January, 01:00.

VEGAS LINE: Tampa Bay -3; Total Points 50.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: Tampa Bay -4.3; Total Points 51.9

Tampa Bay is lucky to be third seeds as they play in a soft division which helped them to a credible 10-7 record. The way the fixture list turned out, Tampa’s second half of the season was all you could wish for. QB Baker Mayfield, RB Bucky Irving and WR Mike Evans have made this offence tick over but whether they are good enough to go on a deep post-season run remains to be seen.

Pre-season expectations for Washington (seeded 6) were not high and they opened the season losing to Tampa 37-20. After that, their season went uphill and they were winning matches on a regular basis. A 12-5 record would have been enough to win either the NFC South or the NFC West.

There’s not much to choose between the two Quarterbacks and this looks like being a close game. Another hard one to call but I like the ‘dogs +3 in a tight match up.

2025 NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND PICK: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +3 POINTS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (14-3) @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-7)

Date & Time: Tuesday 14th January, 01:00. PLAYED IN ARIZONA (Neutral)

VEGAS LINE: Minnesota -2.5; Total Points 48

JAN KEYS RATINGS: Minnesota -2.6; Total Points 45.2

The Los Angeles Rams (seeded 4) had a soft week last weekend and rested QB Matthew Stafford, RB Kyren Williams and WR Puka Nacua. So, I am disregarding last week’s loss. Their three wins before last week were 12-6, 19-9, 13-9 showing how poorly the offense were playing and how much the defense had improved.

The Minnesota Vikings (seeded 5) were mauled last weekend by the Detroit Lions, losing 31-9 in the winner takes top seed playoff. As I mentioned last week, the Vikings have overachieved this season and can take pride in having a 14-3 record in a division that consisted of Detroit and Green Bay. The big question is can Minnesota pick themselves up after such a shocking performance?

This match has been moved to Glendale, Arizona due to the fires in Los Angeles. The Rams play in Arizona every season but it moves the home advantage down from 3 points to 1 point, in my opinion. The Rams were beaten 41-10 by Arizona here in Week 2 so that may not be a good omen.

2025 NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS -2.5 POINTS

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-JanKeys