2025 Night 5 Premier League Darts Preview

This Thursday’s action comes from Brighton, check out James Punt’s 2025 Night 5 Premier League Darts preview below.

Night 4 Reflections

It was a neutral night betting wise last week and we remain at +2.75 points. This Thursday we head for Brighton and Night 5. This week is sandwiched between last week’s UK Open, and this weekend’s Belgian Darts Open. That means a busy travel week, especially for those that played into the final day.

At least going out early meant that Gerwyn Price and Stephen Bunting had Saturday and Sunday off. The likes of Littler, Aspinall and Humphries were down in the West country until Sunday, Sunday night for Littler. Then home for Monday and Tuesday before heading to Brighton for the press day on Wednesday. The PL is on Thursday night and then they head of to Belgium on Friday for their second round matches on Saturday.

Fatigue Building

It may be more apparent when we get to Belgium, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see fatigue being an issue for some players very soon.

After four weeks of play we have Luke Humphries seven points clear of Luke Littler in second place. Gerwyn Price is a further point behind Littler, with MVG hanging on to fourth, just one point ahead of Nathan Aspinall. Stephen Bunting remains pointless after four nights. Only five points separates second place from seventh place. So far, only Humphries looks comfortable.

Gerwyn Price vs. Michael van Gerwen

I fully expected to see Price a fairly clear favourite to win this match, but he is odds against in places.

Yes, Price fell at the first hurdle at The UK Open, losing 9-10 to Conor Scutt in the fourth round. Scutt averaged 99.62, Price 95.26. The Welshman wasn’t at his best, indeed he was two points below his seasonal average, but he wasn’t thrashed and Scutt played very well. It happens. I wouldn’t say Price has suddenly gone off the boil, he was just beaten by the better player on the night.

Michael van Gerwen on the other hand has plenty to think about. He was knocked out in the fifth round, the second hurdle, losing 8-10 to Robert Owen, who averaged just 90.58. MVG averaged 95.00, nearly four points below his seasonal average, but more important was the nature of the loss.

He was 1-4 down at the first break, and Owen was wondering how he was so far clear. They were both rubbish, and the doubling was pub dart level. By the end of the match, MVG had missed 26 doubles, with a checkout rate of 23.5%.

Double Troubles

Van Gerwen’s 12 month checkout rate is 40.3%, not even top 32. In his last ten matches MVG has been below his 12 month checkout level seven times, and he lost five of those matches. Overall, he has lost six of his last ten matches and his win rate for 2025 is only 47%. He is not in any sort of form, except that he can still score. He is finding winning surprisingly hard.

Gerwyn Price was in the same boat in the latter part of 2024. His doubling was holding him back and it was crushing him. However, he has started finding more doubles, has got his 12 month checkout rate up to 40.71% and up to 22nd place. Those are not brilliant figures, but they are better than what he was doing in 2024. He still has some poor doubling displays, but only two of his last ten have been under 33%. He still managed to beat Luke Littler in one of those matches.

Price has won six of his last ten matches and has a 2025 win rate of 69%, MVG has lost six of his last ten matches, and has a win rate of 47%. Their H2H record is 34 -15 to MVG, and the Dutchman has won five of their last six matches.

But for that H2H record, this would have been a 2 pointer, and still nearly was.

2025 Night 5 Premier League Tip: 1 point Gerwyn Price to win @ 2.08 with Livescorebet

Luke Littler vs. Chris Dobey

How fresh will Littler be after winning the UK Open on Sunday night? Dobey may need him to be a bit jaded.

Littler has won eight of his last ten matches, hit seven 180s in those ten and his seasonal average is 102.62.

Dobey is on three points, but not yet too detached from the battle for 4th place. However, he will need to have a good night soon, and facing Littler in the quarter final is not what he would want right now. Overall, Dobey has lost four of his last ten matches but perhaps more significantly, he has lost nine of his fourteen TV matches in 2025. His floor form is so much better.

Their H2H form is 2-1 to Littler, and it was Littler who won their only match on TV.

Littler is the 1.29 favourite, Dobey 4.00. The Nuke is the better player in every respect, but it is still a best of eleven leg match, so Dobey has the puncher’s chance.

Littler can be beaten, but I’m not sure Dobey is the man to do it, not on TV anyway. No bet.

2025 Night 5 Premier League Tip: No Bet

Rob Cross vs. Luke Humphries

This is effectively Rob Cross’s home game. He lives about 30 miles away in Hastings, so if he loses this, he will be home early.

Cross was a bit disappointing at the UK Open, losing in the sixth round to Josh Rock, despite being 4-0 up. He has lost five of his last ten matches and he plays well enough, most of the time, but rarely does he hit his best form. He is two wins from six played in the PL and that needs to improve.

Luke Humphries has won 80% of his matches in 2025, and won seven of his last ten, hitting seven ton plus averages. He wasn’t happy losing 9-10 to James Wade in the quarter final on Sunday at the UK Open. Wade had managed to wind him up by licking his neck before the match started. Bizarre. #lickgate

H2H Close

Their H2H record is 13-10 to Humphries and it was Humphries who won their semi-final match last week, 6-5. Cross has won six of their last ten matches, so he is not intimidated by Humphries. In last year’s PL, it was 3-2 to Cross.

Humphries is the 1.36 favourite, Cross 3.50. Their H2H record suggests that Cross is the value bet here, but my head says that Humphries wins. No bet.

2025 Night 5 Premier League Tip: No Bet

Stephen Bunting vs. Nathan Aspinall

This has the feel of an important match, more so for Bunting. We still have 12 weeks to go before the playoffs, including tonight, but Bunting is nil from four and has a -12 leg difference. Aspinall is just outside the top 4, but has the lowest average at just 93.65, well shy of Bunting’s 98.25.

Bunting has lost seven of his last ten matches but he is not playing as badly as that sounds. He averaged over a ton against Littler and Humphries in the last two weeks, but it was not enough. He now faces the lightest scorer in the league, and he needs to take advantage.

Aspinall is talking a good game, saying that he took a lot of confidence from beating MVG two weeks ago, but maybe you need to consider where MVG’s game is. The Asp reached the quarter finals at the UK Open and did play pretty well, so at least his confidence is up.

Bunting Leads H2H

Their H2H record is 6-4 to Bunting, and he has won their last three in a row, all on TV. Aspinall has not beaten Bunting since September 2022.

Bunting is playing better than Aspinall, but he has a losing habit. Aspinall is feeling more confident about his game, enjoying it more, and that could be the difference.

Bunting is the 1.67 favourite, with Aspinall 2.30. It is a hard one to call. Bunting is lacking confidence but is probably playing better than Aspinall. If Aspinall can break Bunting early (Bunting throws first) then the Bullet will feel the pressure. Of the sixteen quarter finals, the player throwing first has lost ten times, which is a surprise. Can Aspinall add to that tally? I’ll take the chance at the odds.

2025 Night 5 Premier League Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 2.30 with Ladbrokes

I’ll have the Belgian Darts Open preview ready before the start of play on Friday, and I’ll hopefully be able to cover some of the first round matches, certainly for the evening session.

-JamesPunt