2025 PDC WC Final Preview and Tips – JP
2025 PDC WC Final Preview & Tips
We landed both bets in the opening semi-final last night but Littler proved far too good for Bunting in the second game. Tonight, we have the decider between Michaeal Van Gerwen and Luke Littler and hopefully it’ll be a fitting finale to what has been a brilliant few weeks of darts. Check out James Punt’s 2025 PDC WC Final preview and tips below.
Semi-Final Reflections
We had two very one sided semi-finals last night. Both ended 6-1 but we came out with a 1.20 point profit so there was some compensation for two poor spectacles. The tips have been treading water since play resumed after the Christmas break. We were +6.25 at the break and since than we have added a paltry +0.05 points.
Our tournament outright bets yielded two winners and four losers, but a solid +4.50 profit. I am betting 2.5 points on the final, so we will end up in profit regardless of the outcome tonight, but hopefully we can go out with a profitable night.
We now have the 2025 PDC WC Final between the old Dutch master, and the young pretender. A symbolic changing of the guard, or can Van Gerwen stem the tide of Littler’s march to greatness?
Michael Van Gerwen vs. Luke Littler
The market believes that we will see the changing of the guard in the 2025 PDC WC Final. Luke Littler is the 1.40 favourite, with Van Gerwen the 3.25 outsider. The vital statistics for the two players are as follows. Tournament average for Littler 101.77, checkout rate 41.8% and 180s hit at 0.50 per leg. For Van Gerwen it is 99.16, 44.6% and 0.36. Advantage to Littler in terms of tournament form.
Van Gerwen has played in six World Championship finals and won three, the last in 2019. Littler made last year’s final, losing 4-7 to Luke Humphries. Since then, he has won the Premier League, the World Series Finals and the Grand Slam of Darts, and was runner up in the Players Championship finals.
He did suffer three first round exits in Majors, so it has not been all one way traffic. Van Gerwen’s season has been comparatively barren. He has won a Euro Tour title and two Players Championships.
There isn’t that much between them scoring wise, MVG is better on the doubles but Littler has a bigger punch in the 180 department.
Even Steven
Their H2H record is perfectly balanced at 6-6. Most of those matches were in the Premier League (4-3 to MVG). They had two World Series finals at the start of the year (1-1) and they met in two TV clashes (1-1) and their last match was a Euro Tour win for Littler, a comprehensive 6-1.
All of MVG’s previous finals have ended with scorelines of 7-3 (x3), or 7-4 (x3). Littler lost his final 4-7 last year. The last ten World Championship finals have seen four with a 7-3 finish and two 7-4. Two finished 7-5, one 7-2 and there was just one that went to a deciding set.
Who wins? The best player should and Littler has been the better player this season, and in this tournament. Odds of 1.40 are too short. MVG at 3.25? Could be a good value loser.
Side Markets
Most 180s? Littler, but his best odds are 1.14. Not interested.
Total Sets? This is too easy for the bookies. Of the last ten finals, five have been under 10.5, five over. Under is 2.25, over 1.67. Overs makes no appeal at odds on, but there is some value in under 10.5 sets @ 2.25.
Total 180s? My back of the fag packet calculations say around 34 to 38. Over 37.5 is 2.10, Under 37.5 is 1.91. The average number of 180s hit in the last ten years is 32.7, but in the last three years it is 38. Over 37.5 does look at the very top of expectations.
The value lies with unders. MVG does have a tendency to use treble nineteen which helps the under bets. Across his six finals, the 180 count sees an average of 28.17. Littler’s only final saw 36. Obviously if we get a 7-6, or even 7-5 scoreline, we could see more, but I’m happy to back the unders.
