2025 PDC WC Semi-Finals Preview & Tips – JP
2025 PDC WC Semi-Finals Preview
Unfortunately, the 2024 version of Peter Wright turned up last night and we lost both bets. Just four men remain standing now, Michael Van Gerwen, who takes on Chris Dobey and Luke Littler, who faces Stephen Bunting. Who is going to reach the final? Check out James Punt’s 2025 PDC WC Semi-Finals preview and tips below.
Michael van Gerwen vs. Chris Dobey
Chris Dobey took advantage of Gerwyn Price’s double trouble to win his quarter final 5-3. I say ‘won’, but Price lost that match. He was 2-0 up and cruising and then he missed a double, and then another, and another and his game completely unravelled. The only reason it went to an eighth set was that Dobey missed multiple match darts to win 5-2.
It looked like Dobey was going to bottle it again, but Price was so bad on the doubles that the match was gift wrapped for Dobey. It was a 95 average for Dobey, he hit twelve 180s and checked out at 41%. To be fair, It was a decent performance, but had Price not missed forty one doubles, there would have been a different winner.
Still, a win is a win and he has finally got passed the dreaded quarter final stage. He also ended that dreadful H2H record against Price. Now he has to face another nemesis.
Dominant MVG
MVG likes playing Dobey. He has faced him twenty four times and won eighteen. A 75% win rate. However, after losing their first eleven matches, Chris Dobey has won six of their last thirteen, so he is more like a 50-50 shot these days. In 2024 it was 2-1 to MVG and in TV matches it is 7-3 to MVG. They have met once at Ally Pally, the 2023 quarter final, and MVG won that 5-0.
Van Gerwen has improved his performance in every round he has played so far. His tournament average is 99.23, he has hit thirty five 180s at a rate of 0.38 per leg and his checkout rate is 45%. Dobey’s performances have been less progressive. His tournament average is 94.77, he has hit thirty six 180s at 0.35 per leg and his checkout rate is 34.5%.
Better Average
MVG has the better tournament average, he is hitting 180s a little better and has been a lot better on the doubles. MVG has played eight World Championship semi-finals and won six. This will be Dobey’s first World Championship semi-final. He has played in three ranking semi-finals and lost all three. He did win the non-ranking 2023 Masters title, which was at least a TV event.
Everything points towards Van Gerwen. He is the 1.44 favourite, with Dobey 3.10. As usual with these matches late in the tournament, it is hard to find much value. Under 9.5 sets makes some appeal. Six of MVG’s eight semi-finals were under 9.5 sets, and of the last twenty semi-finals, seventeen have been under 9.5.
2025 PDC WC Semi-Finals Tip: 1 point under 9.5 sets @ 1.70 with Fitzdares
While both players have been hitting a healthy number of 180s, their previous eight TV matches have rarely been maximum fests. Six of the eight have seen combined 180 per leg rates of less than 0.58. That suggests that we should be looking at an unders bet in the 180 market.
2025 PDC WC Semi-Finals Tip: 1 point under 25.5 180s @ 1.95 with Fitzdares
Luke Littler vs. Stephen Bunting
Luke Littler is the 1.22 favourite and Bunting the 5.00 outsider. Littler has a tournament average of 100.84, a checkout rate of 41% and is hitting 180s at 0.53 per leg. Bunting is averaging 96.12, checking out at 42% and his 180 rate is 0.21 per leg. Not a huge scoring difference, but a big difference in the 180 hitting. That fact alone should mean Littler will be pressuring Bunting’s throw, while making his hard to break.
They have met twice, both Players Championship matches, but one was a final, and one was a semi-final. Littler won the final 8-7, Bunting won the semi-final 7-6. Very close matches, which produced twenty one 180s at 0.75 per leg. Littler was poor on the doubles in both matches which may explain the close scores.
Poor Semi-Final Record
Bunting does not have a good record in major PDC semi-finals. He has played five and lost five. However, he did win this year’s non-ranking Masters. Both players have played one PDC World Championship semi-final, Bunting lost the 2022 semi-final 4-6 to Gerwyn Price, Littler beat Rob Cross 6-2 last year.
Littler has played three ranking major semi-final and won all three, along with the Premier League semi-final, and World Series Finals semi-final.
Littler has lost seven sets in his four matches played so far, but only Ryan Joyce has seriously troubled him. That drew out Littler’s best performance, which suggests he has something in hand if push comes to shove.
Bunting has only lost four sets and has not been pushed by anyone, so far. He will be feeling good about his game, but how he will cope under the cosh is not so clear. He has had two very close matches with Littler, so his fear level may be less than say, Nathan Aspinall.
Littler is the better player, he should win, but Bunting is unlikely to just roll over. His record in semi-finals is ultimately one of failure, but he gave Price a good run for his money in 2022.
Finding value in Littler matches is rarely easy and I am struggling here. Of the last twenty semi-finals, 40% ended with a 6-3 scoreline. I expect Littler to win, but also for Bunting to win sets.
