2025 PDC WC Wednesday Afternoon Preview – JP
2025 PDC WC Wednesday Afternoon Preview
Jeffrey De Graaf saved the blank for James Punt on Monday. check out his 2025 PDC WC Wednesday Afternoon preview and tips below.
The post-Christmas matches up to the new year break and end of the fourth round, yielded a modest +2.35 point profit, bringing the tournament to date tally to +8.60. The ante post outright bets have taken a bit of a kicking. Gary Anderson to win Q4 and hit the most tournament 180s lost 2 points.
Jermaine Wattimena to win Q1 lost 0.5, and Humphries to win the Championship lost 1 point. That is 3.50 points down, but we have two remaining bets. Luke Littler to win Q2, 3 points @ 1.67, and 1 point Chris Dobey to win Q3 @ 6.50. We can still pull the outright bets back into profit, if it all goes well today.
Chris Dobey vs. Gerwyn Price
Dobey has been good, but not been great so far. He has beaten Alexander Merkx 3-1, Josh Rock 4-2 and he scraped a 4-3 win over Kevin Doets in the fourth round. His tournament average is 94.82, below his seasonal average of 97.17.
Dobey also has to overcome a poor quarter final record. He has played quarter final matches here for the last two years and lost both. Last year he was 4-0 up against Rob Cross but managed to lose it 4-5 in added time. He summed it up by saying that he ‘bottled it’.
He very nearly did much the same against Doets yesterday, but Doets wasn’t as resilient as Cross. In the previous year, Dobey just surrendered to MVG, losing 5-0 and winning just three legs. That is a lot of quarter final scar tissue. He now has a chance to make it third time lucky, but he faces a player who has beaten him fifteen times. Only MVG has beaten Dobey more often. That does not bode well.
Modest Average
Gerwyn Price has beaten Keane Barry3-0, Joe Cullen 4-3 and Jonny Clayton 4-2. His tournament average is a very modest 92.07 and his checkout rate 35%. It is his doubling that is his weakness. Over the last 12 months his checkout rate is 40% and his lack of confidence on the outer ring is the difference between a very good Gerwyn Price, and a beatable Gerwyn Price.
Dobey is the better player these days but mentally, he is weak. He can throw winning positions away and he knows that a player with his abilities should be winning TV titles on a regular basis, and not just the one non-ranking one that he has.
The way he dropped his head when 2-0 up against Doets the other day was a warning sign that he still has that propensity to, in his own words, ‘bottle it’. He was lucky that the inexperienced Doets choked a bit when he had the chance to win, allowing Dobey to fall over the line.
Mentally Tougher
Price is mentally, a lot tougher. He is a former world champion and winner of five other ranking majors. He has no fear of winning. It is a strange thing. People relate to the fear of failure, but there is a fear of winning and once that threshold is crossed, players can often go on a win more, but many players find it very difficult to get it over the line. Price has the advantage in that department.
Dobey has played the better darts so far but he now faces another quarter final, and at the scene of two humiliating failures in the last two years. He also faces a player who he has beaten just once in sixteen attempts. A double nemesis.
Dobey is 1.91 to win the match, Price 1.95. Really? With that H2H? With the mental scar tissue? Really?
If Price has a really bad day on the doubles than Dobey might have the upper hand, but we have seen him blow a four set lead last year, so even a doubling meltdown from Price may not be enough.
The only thing that is a positive for Dobey, is that Newcastle are playing well, and he plays better when his football team are winning. It is not a coincidence that we have two Geordies in the quarter finals, and Joyce wasn’t a mile off joining them.
We are effectively on Dobey at 6.50 to win the match. We can lay him off for a profit, or back Price to guarantee a profit. It seems very logical to back the Welshman here.
2025 PDC WC Wednesday Afternoon Tip: 2 points Gerwyn Price to win @ 1.95 with SpreadEx
Michael van Gerwen vs. Callan Rydz
Geordie number two, Callan Rydz, has been something of a revelation. We know what he can do, but that fact was that he had not been doing it in the lead up to this tournament. However, he has largely been playing the best darts of the tournament so far. His tournament average is 100.20 and he won his first three matches without dropping a set.
He was taken to a decider by Robert Owen in the fourth round in a top quality encounter. Rydz has hit twenty six maximums at 0.39 per leg. Rydz has played in one previous World Championship quarter final in 2022, one of three major quarter finals he has played and lost. He lost that one 4-5 to Peter Wright.
Unconvincing
Van Gerwen has averaged 97.94 across his three matches and he was not entirely convincing against Dolan and De Graaf, dropping two sets in both, but he hasn’t been properly tested yet. He has won five of his last ten matches and while he hasn’t been at his best, he has not put in a stinker, which had become a feature of his game in 2024. MVG is hitting the 180s at 0.38 per leg and both are significantly outperforming their seasonal 180 per leg rate of 0.28.
Their H2H record is 3-2 to MVG and he won their only match of 2024 6-0. Rydz spent much of 2024 out of form, very much so at times. In this tournament he is a different player. He is happy off the oche and he says that when he is happy, his darts are good.
Rydz A Generous Price
MVG is the 1.44 favourite and Rydz the 3.00 outsider. Based on what we have seen so far, Rydz looks generously priced, but this is a World Championship quarter final. There is a jump of £50,000 for the player who makes the semi-final. That sort of money is a bigger deal for Rydz.
MVG has won three World Championships and played in ten quarter finals and won eight, but he has lost two of his last three, which reflects the gradual drop in his form.
Rydz is playing well enough to make a game of this, indeed, he has a decent chance of winning. He can self-destruct, but he has looked in good mental health, which is the difference. Van Gerwen has won and lost two of his last three quarter finals 5-0. I can’t see that happening today. His 5-0 win was against Dobey, who is just a carpet as far as MVG is concerned, and the 0-5 loss was that time when Dave Chisnall just went mad and thrashed him.
If Rydz plays like he did in the first round or as he did against Van den Bergh he could give MVG a battering, but there will be more pressure because of what the match is. However the value is with Rydz, it is very rarely with MVG. If we can get a 8-9 setter, there is plenty of room for lots of 180s.
