2025 PDC World Championship Betting Preview

The highlight of the darting year, the 2025 PDC World Championship, kicks off on the 15th of December. The Alexandra Palace remains the tournament venue and the World Champion will be crowned on the 3rd of January, but will we see a new name on the trophy?

 The list of former champions in the tournament’s history is short. Just twelve different players have won the title of PDC World Champion.

Phil Taylor won fourteen, Michael van Gerwen three, John Part, Adrian Lewis, Gary Anderson and Peter Wright have won two. Denis Priestley, Raymond van Barneveld, Rob Cross, Gerwyn Price, Michael Smith and Luke Humphries have won it once. There have only been seventeen different runners up, so it is a very exclusive club.

Post-Taylor Era

It is worth looking at the post-Taylor era. His last title was won in 2013 (his last appearance was in 2018). In the next eleven years, we have seen seven different winners, so things have opened up. For now at least.

Last year we saw the arrival of Luke Littler. He made the final on debut and at odds of 67.00. He eventually lost out to Luke Humphries, but Littler will arrive at Ally Pally for the 2025 PDC World Championship as the 3.00 favourite.

In the last twenty years, only players ranked in the top 32 have won the title, Littler nearly ended that run, but as he is now the world number four, he ticks that box. In the last twenty years, on only four occasions was the winner ranked higher than fifth. Peter Wright was ranked seventh in 2020, Rob Cross was 20th in 2018, John Part was 11th in 2008, and Raymond van Barneveld was 32nd in 2007.

Twelve of the last twenty runners up have been ranked in the top 10 and only three were not a PDC OOM qualifier. Littler qualified via the Development Tour OOM, Simon Whitlock was an international qualifier in 2009 and Kirk Shepard was PDPA qualifier.

Top Ten

The message is clear. The winner, and the runner up, are very likely to be ranked in the top ten, and more realistically the top 5, especially for the winner. This narrows the list of likely winners and finalists dramatically.

The seedings are done on a two year rolling tally of prizemoney, and they can be misleading. There are some seeds who are not playing anywhere near as well as their seeding suggest they should, others playing better than their rankings, so recent form is just as important. Tournament form is also important. Having experience of playing on the biggest stage of all, in the biggest event of all, is a help.

The top thirty two players on the PDC OOM, have the added benefit of entering at the second round stage. That means they are guaranteed £15,000 in ranking prize money and have one less match to negotiate. The other sixty four competitors play off in the first round with the losers getting £7,500.

2025 PDC World Championship: Top 32 Seeds

Previous tournament form, latest on the right. Latest Odds as of Noon, 13th December 2024.

1 Luke Humphries

Previous Form: PR/QF/QF/1/QF/4/W.

Odds: 4.35

The defending champion warmed up for the big one by defending his Players Championship title at the end of last month, beating Luke Littler in the final. He wasn’t at his very best, but still managed to win it, and got his second win over Littler in a month.

Humphries has won two ranking Majors in 2024 as well as the World Championship. Last year, Humphries came here in very hot form, having won the Grand Slam and Players Championship in the immediate build up.

This year, he has not quite been at the same level, but his record in the ranking Majors in 2024 is W/RU/W/RU/QF/1/W, so you have to expect a deep run at the very least. His recent form sees seven wins from his last ten matches. This time last year his seasonal win rate was 77%, but that has dropped to 72% in 2024.

2 Michael Smith

Previous Form: 1/1/3/3/QF/3/2/RU/2/2/RU/W/4

Odds: 34.00

I would say that Smith is a false number two, certainly on form. When he won the title two years ago, Smith came here on the back of having recently won his first Major and he had made three other ranking Major finals.

Since he won the World Championship, Smith has just two ranking Major semi-finals from thirteen events. Clearly, the floodgates did not open when got his first Major title, and a World Championship.

He is defending £500k in ranking prize money and he needs a good run just to keep his top 16 ranking. His recent form is not good, losing five of his last ten matches and he is a long way from the player who won this two years ago. His win rate in 2022 was 67%, in 2024 it is 60%.

3 Michael van Gerwen

Previous Form: 1/2/2/1/3/RU/W/SF/3/W/SF/W/RU/QF/3/RU/QF.

Odds: 12.00

Arguably a false number three. Van Gerwen has not won a ranking Major since the 2022 Players Championships. He was a three time runner up in 2023, but he has made just one ranking Major final in 2024 and he has struggled even to win a match in the last four.

His recent form is poor, losing six of his last ten matches and his confidence is at an all-time low. Is the Van Gerwen era over? His seasonal win rate is 68% and it has fallen every year since he peaked with a ridiculous 91% in 2016.

4 Luke Littler

Previous Form: RU 

Odds: 3.00

Having bagged his first ranking Major at the Grand Slam, Littler ticks all the boxes now. Major winner, top five player, his tournament record is good, if limited, and his recent form is good, winning nine of his last ten matches. He is on a run of thirteen ton plus averages. It would seem that the only thing that can stop him is a dodgy kebab, or Luke Humphries.

We are starting to get to the stage where his opponents are beaten before a dart is thrown, in the same way as happened with Taylor and MVG in their prime. It is only a matter of time before he wins this title, and it could in a matter of weeks. He would become the youngest ever winner of the title, but we are used to Littler breaking records.

5 Rob Cross

Previous Form: W/4/2/2/4/4/SF.

Odds: 41.00

Bucked the trends by winning this in his debut year, back in 2018. He has picked up another three ranking Majors since, but his last was in 2021. He reached the semi-final last year and has made the quarter finals in four Majors in 2024.

His recent form sees five defeats in his last ten matches, he is playing OK, but not with the necessary consistency to think he can win it again.

6 Dave Chisnall

Previous Form: 3/3/1/2/3/QF/1/QF/3/SF/3/3/QF.

Odds: 81.00

The search for his first ranking Major goes on, and it looks further away these days. Not only is the competition fierce, but he isn’t getting any better. He was a quarter finalist last year and a semi-finalist in 2021, but he has not reached a ranking Major final since 2019.

His recent form has been affected by a back injury and he has lost nine of his last ten matches. It is hard to make any sort of case for Chizzy.

7 Jonny Clayton

Previous Form: 2/1/2/3/3/4/QF/4.

Odds: 81.00

The Ferret is hard to pin down. He has shown some decent form of late, but he is not the player he was in 2021, despite him now being the world number seven.

He was runner up in the final Players Championship qualifier but lost his first round Grand Slam qualifier and was dumped out of the Players Championship finals in the first round after a poor performance against Florian Hempel.

Clayton has won six of his last ten matches and he could have a bit of a run. His draw is not the worst and I would go as far to say that he is one of favourites to win his quarter.

8 Stephen Bunting

Previous Form: QF/2/1/1/2/4/SF/2/QF/4.

Odds: 51.00

Another top player who is yet to win a ranking Major, but he did start the year by winning the non-ranking Masters. It has been a good season for Bunting, but not in the big ones.

He was a quarter finalist in the UK Open but other than that, he has failed to get beyond the second round in the ranking Majors. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and he is playing with a decent level of consistency.

Bunting is in a difficult section of the draw and even if he was to get to the business end of the tournament, his record when push comes to shove is not good.

9 Damon Heta

Previous Form: 2/1/3/3/4.

Odds: 101.00

Heta had his best run in a ranking Major at the UK Open earlier this year, reaching the semi-finals. However, there were three first round exits in the next three Majors, and the third round of the Players Championship finals.

He has won seven of his last ten matches and is playing nicely, and with a good deal of consistency. It is just his record in the Majors which bothers me. He has reached that one semi-final and six other quarter finals, which is OK, but he does seem to get a bit tight on TV and doesn’t play his best.

Heta also has a horrible draw with a very hard path to the quarter finals.

10 Gerwyn Price

Previous Form: 1/1/1/3/2/SF/W/QF/QF/3.

Odds: 36.00

A very good tournament record, but it his 2024 form that is the problem. His 2024 win rate is just 59%. When he won the title, it was 80%. Most recently he has lost five of his last ten matches.

His scoring still stands up, but he just doesn’t seem that interested. His competitive edge is what set him apart at his best, but he just isn’t interested in the competition.

Price has not won a title of any description in 2024, and you do not rock up to Ally Pally and win the World Championship if you have not won a title that season. It is very hard to be enthusiastic about his chances.

11 Dimitri van den Bergh

Previous Form: 2/1/QF/3/QF/4/2/SF/2.

Odds: 101.00

Defending his semi-final money from two years ago, which does put him under some pressure. Dimitri is known for being a very good big stage player, he won the UK Open earlier in the season, was a quarter finalist at the Matchplay and a semi-finalist at the Grand Prix.

However, his recent form has seen him struggle for form on and off the stage. He has just three wins from his last ten matches and seven saw sub 90 averages. It is quite easy to see him falling at the first fence.

Van den Bergh is also defending £100k and faces dropping out of the top 16 if he does go out early.

12 Nathan Aspinall

Previous Form: SF/SF/3/3/3/2.

Odds: 81.00

Two semi-finals from his first two visits to the Palace on the Hill, but not a lot since. Aspinall has had a season interrupted by a bad arm injury. He returned to action in the middle of September after two months out and without so much as throwing a dart.

Since Aspinall returned to action he has played 33 matches and won just 15. Most recently he has lost six of his last ten matches, but he is playing better than that sounds. He has been working with a hypnotherapist to help him with his re-gripping/Dartitis problem. However, a deep run is hard to see.

13 Danny Noppert

Previous Form: 2/3/3/3/3/2.

Odds: 151.00

A surprisingly indifferent tournament record for a player who I just expect to reach the quarter finals of anything he enters.

Noppert has made the semi-final of at least one ranked Major for the last four years, and won the UK Open in 2022. He is one of the most consistent of players on tour and he is in good form, winning eight of his last ten matches. Maybe he lacks a bit of a killer instinct, but he has the game to have a deep run.

However, his draw means that he is very likely to play Luke Littler in the fourth round, and after the mauling he took from Littler in the Players Championship finals, I would expect his run to end there.

14 Gary Anderson

Previous Form: 2/RU/QF/3/3/W/W/RU/QF/SF/4/RU/SF/3/4.

Odds: 11.00

An excellent tournament record suggests that Anderson, still one of the heaviest scorers in the game, should have a good run. His recent form sees seven wins from his last ten matches and his seasonal win rate is 75%, only slightly shy of Luke Littler.

He is one of a few players who can give Littler a game and it was a very close run thing when Anderson went down 15-16 to Littler in the Grand Slam semi-final last month. On the negative side, the last time Anderson won a ranked Major was in 2018, and his last final was here in 2021. He has said that his days of winning silverware are over, and he might be right.

At least this format, with long breaks between matches, means his is less likely to run out of gas. He also has a good draw. The fourth quarter is not the toughest looking. He is very likely to have a tricky first round match against the in-form Jeffrey de Graaf and that is a bit of a trap door.

Anderson could meet Ross Smith in round three, which may be another tough one, and he is scheduled to meet MVG in the fourth round. Anderson should be favourite to win those matches, and there is no one in the bottom half of the quarter who would be favourite to beat him.

My favourite to win the fourth quarter, and being in the bottom half of the draw, he wouldn’t have to meet one of the two Lukes until the final.

15 Chris Dobey

Previous Form: 2/1/4/4/3/4/QF/QF.

Odds: 41.00

Back to back quarter finals in the last two years suggests that Dobey is getting the hang of playing in the big one. However, the fact that he has not won a ranking Major tells us that he isn’t getting a great return on his undoubted talent.

Hollywood is a heavy scorer, a brilliant 170 checkout merchant and I feel he really should be landing more titles. He won the Masters in 2022 and played in the Premier League as a result. He learned quite a bit and improved as a player from that experience, but it still didn’t turn him into a regular winner.

His last four ranking Majors have seen him win just one match. His recent form is not good, losing eight of his last thirteen matches and his consistency leaves a lot to be desired. Dobey’s draw is not the worst, and if he can beat Josh Rock in a likely third round match, I can see him making another quarter final.

16 James Wade

Previous Form: 1/1/3/QF/SF/QF/2/SF/SF/QF/2/QF/QF/1/4/3/3/SF/2/2.

Odds: 101.00

This will be James Wades twenty first World Championship. His best results were four semi-finals, the last coming in the 2023 Championship. Wade has won six of his last ten matches, but he hasn’t played that well, at least not in terms of consistency.

His draw is not good as he is in the first quarter. He is likely to face the in-form Jermaine Wattimena in his opening match, probably Wesley Plaisier in the third and then Luke Humphries in the fourth. No easy matches for him.

17 Peter Wright

Previous Form: 1/3/1/2/RU/QF/QF/SF/2/2/W/3/W/3/2.

Odds: 126.00

The two time World Champion is in dire form, losing eight of his last ten matches. He has failed to win a single match in the last five ranked Majors and if, as expected, he plays Wesley Plaisier in the second round, he will be home in plenty of time for Christmas.

18 Josh Rock

Previous Form: 4/2.

Odds: 67.00

Playing some great stuff but has been running into other players who played really well. The one worrying part of his game is his doubling. He lost his last match 0-6 to Jermaine Wattimena and he failed to hit a single double, missing five. In his 2-5 loss the Stephen Bunting in the Grand Slam saw him miss ten doubles.

Clearly, it doesn’t matter how well you are scoring, if you can’t hit the doubles you will lose. Rock was talking a good game before the Players Championship finals but he was out in the second round. In the six ranked Majors he has played in 2024, Rock has won just two matches. That will be messing with his head.

Rock needs a good performance in his opening match as he will likely face Chris Dobey in the third round, and that will be tough.

19 Ross Smith

Previous Form: 1/-/-/-/-/2/1/2/3/3/3.

Odds: 51.00

Smudger is yet to make much impression on the World Championship, but he will have been boosted by reaching the semi-finals of the Players Championship finals. That was his best result in a ranked Major since he won the European Championships in 2022.

He has won seven of his last ten matches but he was honest enough to say that he had played some rubbish but still found himself in a Major semi-final. He did hit two ton plus averages as well two low scoring matches, but he won those 6-1 and 10-1.

There is too much inconsistency to really fancy a deep run and he is in a tough part of the draw. Gary Anderson is his likely third round opponent and he is 7-4 vs. the Flying Scotsman. If he can fire up the 180s, Smith is a dangerous opponent.

20 Ryan Searle

Previous Form: 4/3/4/4/3/3.

Odds: 126.00

Searle comes to the Palace and picks up a decent cheque but doesn’t leave himself defending a big chunk two years later. £35k for a fourth round defeat is very handy ranking wise.

Searle is not really a player for the Majors but he can be a difficult opponent if, like Ross Smith, he is hitting a lot of maximums. He is a great double 20 hitter and has the potential for a good run, but his recent form has not been great, losing his last three matches and four of his last ten.

He is in a tough part of the draw and for that reason, I don’t expect more than another third or fourth round exit.

21 Andrew Gilding

1/2/2/-/-/-/-/-/2/2.

Odds: 401.00

Goldfinger will have one clear target. To reach the third round for the first time. He has won five of his last ten matches, and one was against Luke Littler, who he knocked out of the European Championships.

Goldfinger is very inconsistent and will get caught out sooner or later. He should be facing Martin Lukeman in the second round, so that target of making the third round could be tricky.

22 Martin Schindler

Previous Form: 1/1/-/-/3/3

Odds: 151.00

Has won six of his last ten matches, but he is not at his best. Seven of those ten saw averages below 93 and three sub 90s. He has had a few strong performance in there as well, but he has been below his seasonal average a little too often.

His record at Ally Pally is played six, won two. He looks set to play Callan Rydz in the second round, and The Wall is 12-0 vs. The Riot, so he may well make the third round for third year in a row. He would likely face Van den Bergh or the winner of the O’Connor vs. Slevin first round match. That is a good opportunity to make the fourth round, but he has to cut out the weak performances.

There is no doubt that Schindler has one of the better draws. The question has to be, is his form good enough to take advantage? He is likely to have a lot of support from the hordes of German fans who will descend on Ally Pally.

23 Joe Cullen

Previous Form: 1/1/1/1/1/1/2/1/2/2/4/3/4/4.

Odds: 251.00

It has been a very difficult year for Joe Cullen. His seasonal win rate is just 45%, his seasonal average has dropped by nearly four points and his recent form sees just three wins from his last seven matches. Eight of those saw sub 90 to mid-80s averages. There was a 107 in there as well, but that was a cruel tease, to remind himself of what he can do, but just isn’t able to regularly anymore.

His seasonal average is well outside the top 50 these days and Ally Pally doesn’t hold many happy memories for him. He has played twenty two matches and won just nine. His likely second round opponent will be Wessell Nijman, and it all looks a bit grim for Cullen.

He says that off the oche distractions are looking up and he is keen to get going again. I would treat him with caution. However, his form could well turn around.

24 Mike de Decker

Previous Form: 1/2/2/2.

Odds: 29.00

2024 has been a breakthrough season for Mike de Decker. He picked up his first PDC title with PC16 in August. He followed that up by winning the World Grand Prix in October, to join the ranking Major winners club.

MIke remains in decent form, winning six of his last ten matches, but his consistency leaves a little to be desired. He is in the bottom half of the first quarter and does not have the easiest of draws.

25 Dirk van Duijvenbode

Previous Form: 1/-/-/-/-/QF/4/4/2.

Odds: 101.00

Dirk is in the same part of the draw as Mike De Decker and he has a difficult path ahead of him. He is likely to play Madars Razma in his opening match, and he is only 3-4 vs. the Latvian. Bunting is likely to be the next obstacle and they are 2-2 and with tight matches. Then it could be Heta, De Decker, Scutt….no easy options are going to be in front of him.

If he did plot his way to another quarter final, he may well face Luke Humphries. Dirk’s recent form is good. He reached the semi-final of the Players Championship finals but lost that 8-11 to Luke Humphries. Van Duijvenbode is a top player when right on his game, but he faces a series of very tough opponents.

26 Daryl Gurney

Previous Form: 2/-/1/2/QF/2/3/3/QF/3/2/4.

Odds: 176.00

A two time quarter finalist, Gurney used to be a regular feature at the business end of the biggest events. However, since he last made a quarter final here in 2021, Superchin has played in twenty two ranking Majors and made just two quarter finals.

His last Major title was in 2018 and his last title of any kind was back in 2019. He has won six of his last ten matches but there is no great consistency in his game, with too many low 90s or sub 90 averages.

If he gets through the winner of the De Zwaan vs. Hempel match, which is not a given, he will likely face Jonny Clayton. He is 5-2 vs The Ferret. His draw is far from the worst, but the way he has been playing, I expect one or two decent performances, and then a poor one. It is hard to have a deep run that way.

27 Gabriel Clemens

Previous Form: 2/1/4/3/SF/3.

Odds: 176.00

The 2023 World Championship semi-finalist, and that means Clemens is defending a whopping £100,000 in ranking prizemoney. A second round loss here and Clemens is out of the top 32, so he is under a lot of pressure.

Clemens is not in good form, losing six of his last ten matches. He lost in the first round of the Players Championship finals, the European Championship, the World Series of Darts Finals and he didn’t even qualify for the for the Grand Prix, World Matchplay or Grand Slam.

His section of the draw is not the toughest, but it is very hard to fancy his chances of having any sort of run.

28 Gian van Veen

Previous Form: 1.

Odds: 41.00

The newly crowned World Youth Champion. He was a little lucky to win that title, but he did and he joins a list of names who have gone on to greater things. Van Veen has already reached a quarter final and semi-final in ranking Majors in his short career.

His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches, and he has been playing better than that suggests. He has hit five ton plus averages and only two sub 97s. That is top class. With a World Championship title under his belt, he can be quite relaxed coming into this and hopefully play his best.

He is likely to face Ricardo Pietreczko in his opening match, and he is 0-3 against the German. He would still be a strong favourite to win that match. If he gets going, do not be surprised to see Van Veen turn a few heads. The Dutchman is something of a dark horse but is priced accordingly.

29 Ritchie Edhouse

Previous Form: 2/-/2/1/1.

Odds: 251.00

The player with the shortest journey to Alexandra Palace. He has the luxury of sleeping in his own bed and this is very much a home fixture for the new European Champion.

Madhouse has had his best ever season and it all started with some quarter final runs on the Euro Tour. He has never had a season like this one, picking up £240k so far. All sports people need to feel confident before they can perform at their best.

The Euro Tour gave Edhouse the confidence and he was able to take his chances at the European Championships. He is now hitting some very big averages which make him a very dangerous opponent, but his consistency is still a weakness.

His big problem is that his draw means that he is very likely to face Luke Littler in the third round. They last met in the Players Championship finals. Edhouse averaged 105 in a best of eleven leg match and lost 2-6. He was left just shaking his head. He punched hard, and still got flattened.

30 Brendan Dolan

Previous Form: 1/2/2/1/2/2/2/1/2/QF/2/3/2/3/QF.

Odds: 401.00

Last year’s quarter finalist and fifteen time qualifier, Brendan Dolan is unlikely to get very far this year. He is in very poor form. His seasonal win rate is just 46% and more recently, he has lost seven of his last ten matches. Half of those matches saw sub 90 averages, and even a sub 80.

This time last year he came here having won seven of his last ten. He ended the hopes of Gerwyn Price and Gary Anderson, before losing to Luke Littler. He will face the winner of the Chris Landman vs. Yok Lin Lee match, and he may be able to win that, before facing MVG. Dolan has beaten MVG in a ranked Major, but in the form he is in, he is hard to fancy.

31 Krzysztof Ratajski

Previous Form: 1/1/3/QF/2/3/3.

Odds: 251.00

With a seasonal win rate of just 51%, it is hard to get excited about the prospects of The Polish Eagle. Regarded as a much better floor player than stage player, Ratajski looked to be changing that in 2021, reaching the quarter final here, three more Major quarter finals and the semi-final of the World Matchplay.

Since then, it has been slim pickings in the Majors. His world ranking of 31 is his lowest since 2018, when he didn’t even have a tour card. Ratajski has lost five of his last ten matches and while he hasn’t completely lost it, his confidence is low. He might win a match, but it is hard to see any kind of run.

32 Raymond van Barneveld

Previous Form: W/3/RU/SF/QF/1/SF/3/SF/SF/SF/QF/2/1/-/2/3/4.

Odds: 226.00

More of a journeyman pro these days, Barney still plays a solid game with a seasonal average just over 94 and win rate of 59%. He is good enough to win the odd match.

Since losing his fourth round match here to Luke Littler last year, Barney has played six matches in ranked Majors, and won just one match, a 6-2 win over Chris Landman in the recent Players Championship finals.

Barney has lost five of his last ten matches and he will face the winner of the Stowe Buntz, Nick Kenny match. If he gets through that, he faces Luke Humphries, who knocked him out of the Players Championship finals.

2025 PDC World Championship: Interesting Unseeded Players

With the likes of Mike De Decker and Ritchie Edhouse winning ranking Majors in 2024, and Martin Lukeman making a final as a 176.00 outsider, it may be worthwhile looking outside of the top 32 seeds for a bit of a value punt. Maybe not to win, but to win their quarter. It may be worthwhile, but it probably won’t.

In the last ten World Championships only four players from outside the top 32 seeds won their quarter. Two of them were last year, Luke Littler and Scott Williams. In 2019 Nathan Aspinall did it and in 2018, Jamie Lewis. That is four from forty, not a massive strike rate, so you’d want decent odds before committing to a bet.

Jermaine Wattimena

European Championship runner up and Grand Slam quarter finalist, Wattimena has had a good season. He has moderated his pace of play and is a better player for it. He is still, however, yet to win a PDC title.

Wattimena is due to meet James Wade in the second round at the 2025 PDC World Championship and he beat him 10-9 on the way to the finals of the European Championships. My guess is that he would meet Wesely Plaisier in the third round. Not easy, and the winner would likely face Humphries next. He also beat Humphries in the European Championship.

Wattimena would still have to win another match to win the quarter and he is a 41.00 shot to win the first quarter. He has never got beyond the third round in ten previous attempts, but he is a much better player right now. A good run is possible.

Wesley Plaisier

Not only is Plaisier not seeded, he is not even a tour card holder, yet. He will be at the end of the season thanks to him making three Players Championship finals and winning one. He is one of only four players to achieve that feat. One of the others was a certain Scott Williams, who reached the semi-finals here last year.

He has much the same task as Jermaine Wattimena in the first quarter and Plaisier is a 67.00 shot to win the quarter. This is his World Championship debut.

Connor Scutt

The Players Championship Finals quarter finalist is part of the Edhouse, Lukeman, Scutt practice group, and they have all been feeding of each other’s success. Edhouse got the ball rolling and inspiration by association has done the rest.

Scutt is the least experienced, but many would say, the more talented. He has yet to win a PDC senior title and winning the quarter would be at the extreme end of optimism, yet his odds are only 34.00, which are too short.

Cameron Menzies

One of the season’s most improved players. He picked up his first PDC title at the end of October and followed that up with a run to the Grand Slam quarter finals, losing to Mickey Mansell 15-16.

Menzies has won six of his last ten matches, but four of his last six saw sub 90.5 averages. He does throw in some stinkers. He is working with a sports psychologist to improve the mental side of his game. That’s a tough gig for the shrink.

Menzies is a former BDO World Championship semi-finalist, but this is a lot tougher. He is in the second quarter and in a pretty tight corner of the quarter. I also fancy Gian Van Veen more than Menzies. The Ayrshire plumber is as short as 15.00 to win the quarter, but as big as 67.00. Interesting.

Martin Lukeman

The Grand Slam runner up has promised to take things more seriously from now on. He knows he has the game but he struggled with playing two long format, big stage, TV matches on the final day. He will be losing weight and just getting a bit fitter so he can keep his standard up for days like that, and Euro Tour Sundays.

Lukeman did lose in the first round of the Players Championship finals, but that came a matter of days after making the Grand Slam final, so a certain amount of mental letdown was to be expected. Lukeman has won ten of his last twelve matches and is playing with a commendable level of consistency. 

Smash has been drawn in the second quarter and he looks to have a decent path to the third round, but things would start to get tough from then on, facing players against whom he has struggled. Ultimately, he is in the same quarter as Luke Littler, so it is a tough quarter.

Wessel Nijman

If Luke Littler could make the final last year, why not the new bright young thing, Wessell Nijman to have a good run this year? He has the game to beat anyone, including Littler, and he is picking up valuable experience in his first year as a tour card holder.

He has lost six of his last ten matches which would usually mean a line through his name, but he has just been playing opponents who have played exceptionally well against him.

Nijman averaged 97 in the quarter final of the final Players Championship event of the season but lost 5-6 to Josh Rock. He then lost 4-5 to Stephen Bunting in the Grand Slam group stage, despite a 106.51average.

Nijman went down 3-5 to Josh Rock again, this time with a 105.39 average, before another 4-5 loss, this time to Gian van Veen, despite averaging 111.10. He was poor in his first round of the Players Championship finals, losing 1-6 to Kim Huybrechts, but he may have been feeling a bit sorry for himself.

All he can do is to keep on playing great stuff, and he will get a break. He is in the third quarter and that is the most open of the four. A player of interest. His odds are prohibitive at just 29.00 to win the tournament. He doesn’t think he will, so why should we?

2025 PDC World Championship Summary

Outright Winner Betting

Having bagged the last two winners of the World Championship, it would be nice to do the treble. However, the odds of reward look likely to be considerably shorter this year.

The last twenty years show a very strong correlation between the tournament winner, and runners up, and the top ten ranked players. 80% for the winner, and 60% for the runners up.

Of the last twenty winners, 80% had won a ranking Major in the preceding 12 months, and 100% had been at least a runner up in a ranking Major in the last 12 months.

In the last 12 months, players fulfilling the criteria of being a ranked Major finalist gives us a shortlist of Luke Humphries, Luke Littler, Dimitri van den Bergh, Michael van Gerwen, Mike de Decker, Ritchie Edhouse, Jermaine Wattimena and Martin Lukeman. A short list indeed. Let’s take a look at each, or should that be a Luke at each?

Luke Humphries

Has seasonal win rate of 72%. Has won the World Matchplay and the Players Championship Finals. He has won seven of his last ten matches and is the defending champion. The last bit is interesting.

Defending the championship has only been done by three players. Phil Taylor successfully defended his title ten times. Adrian Lewis and Gary Anderson once each.

Clearly, outside of the greatest player of all time, defending the PDC World Championship has been very hard to do. However, Humphries remains on the shortlist.

Luke Littler

Has a seasonal win rate of 77%. Has won the Grand Slam of Darts and been runner up at the World Championship and Players Championship finals in 2024. His recent form sees him winning nine of his last ten matches. He also is the current Premier League champion. Very much on the shortlist.

Dimitri van den Bergh

The UK Open winner, but his form has gone AWOL since then. His seasonal win rate is just 48%, and he has lost seven of his last ten matches. It is that lack of recent form, and it is not just recent, just a lack of form which means he is scratched.

Michael van Gerwen

Has not won a ranking Major in 2024 but he was runner up to Luke Humphries at the World Matchplay. Mighty Mike has not won a TV tournament of any description in 2024. That is the first time since 2021, and only the second time he has failed to do so since 2011.

His recent form see six losses from his last ten matches, his seasonal win rate is 68% (his lowest since 2010) and he too is scratched from the list.

Mike de Decker

Winner of the Grand Prix and he has a seasonal win rate of 68%. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches. His World Ranking is 24, so he well outside of the magic top 10, but it has been done before. He remains on the list.

Ritchie Edhouse

Winner of the European Championship. He has a seasonal win rate of 64% and he has won six of his last ten matches. He is ranked 29, like De Decker, well outside of the top 10, but it has been done before. He remains on the list.

Jermaine Wattimena

Runner up in the European Championship. He has a seasonal win rate of 63% and has won seven of his last ten matches. However, he has a World Ranking of just 36 and for that, he is scratched. He has also yet to win a PDC title, and making the World’s your first, would be off the scale.

Martin Lukeman

Runner up in the Grand Slam of Darts, Lukeman has seasonal win rate of 64% and has won eight of his last ten matches, but like Wattimena, is ranked outside of the top 32, never mind the top 10, and is scratched.

Four Left Standing

And then there were four.

Of the four players remaining, there are two that tick all the boxes for the 2025 PDC World Championship, and you know who they are. The two Lukes. Sometimes you cannot get away from the blindingly obvious.

Littler and Humphries are both in the top half of the draw, which means there will be no repeat of last year’s final, but they are scheduled to meet in the semi-final, and it would a surprise if they didn’t. It is far from a certainty, but still the most likely scenario in the top half of the draw.

Littler Favourite

Luke Littler is the 3.00 favourite to win the World Championship, Luke Humphries 4.35. They have played each other fourteen times, with Littler winning eight, Humphries six. They first met in last year’s final, which Humphries won 7-4, but he did have to come from behind.

Littler then beat Humphries in six consecutive matches, but Humphries will come here having won their last three, including their last competitive match before the start of the 2025 PDC World Championship. That was the final of the Players Championships, a 11-7 win for Cool Hand. He certainly has a bit of an edge in terms of recent form, but there is so little between them.

Not Much Value

We were able to get something like 15.00 on Michael Smith winning two years ago, and 7.00 on Humphries last year. This year, my selection is Humphries. But the question has to be, is there any value in those odds? I have to say, not a lot.

Humphries has to win six matches. His route to the quarter finals looks good. I would fancy him to then make the semi-final. Littler looks to have a tougher quarter of the draw, but it is hard not to see him in the quarters, and looking at his H2H records, he should make the semi-final.

The odds are not good enough for a big bet, but I will have an interest in Humphries to join the elite list of players to defend their PDC World Championship title. Splitting the two is hard, but I favour Humphries and Littler’s odds offer even less value.

2025 PDC World Championship Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win the 2025 World Championship @ 4.35 with Livescorebet

Part two of my 2025 PDC World Championship betting preview will be posted later, when I will look at who might come through the bottom half of the draw and have a chance to spoil the Luke’s party. That and possible quarter winners, and any side markets of interest.

-JamesPunt