2025 PDC World Matchplay Darts Betting Preview – JP

by Dave Stevos | Jul 17, 2025

2025 PDC World Matchplay Darts Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 PDC World Matchplay darts outright betting preview. He has looked every player and he likes three bets, find out who he fancies (and who he doesn’t) below.

2025 PDC World Matchplay Darts

The 32nd PDC World Matchplay is the second most important event on the darting calendar. It features the top sixteen players from the PDC O.O.M, and the top sixteen players not already qualified from the Pro Tour O.O.M. In effect the top 16 best players in the world vs. the next best 16 players in terms of recent form.

This tournament was won sixteen times by Phil Taylor and the winner will be presented with the Phil Taylor Trophy and a cheque for £200,000.00.

Looking at the last fifteen Matchplay’s there is a pattern. The winner has been won by a player ranked in the top 9 on the PDC O.O.M. fourteen times. The only winner to come from the Pro Tour top 16 was Dimitri van den Bergh in 2020. That event was unique in that it was played behind closed doors because of the covid pandemic. A coincidence? Probably not.

Seeds Do Well

Of those last fifteen events the number 1 seed has won seven times, the number 2 seed three times, number 4 seed twice, and once each for the eighth, ninth and the aforementioned Pro Tour winner in 2020.

Since Phil Taylor’s last win in 2017, we have had eight different winners and no one has defended the title since MVG in 2016.

For the runners up, every one of the last fifteen have been from the top eight in the PDC O.O.M.

Recent Years

In recent years, the tournament has become more open in terms of different winners. It was a bit dull when it was just about who would be coming second to Phil Taylor. It may have opened things up to more players winning it, but it seems to be a case of anyone outside of the PDC O.O.M. top nine need not apply.

But it is not all about winning the title. It is about qualifying. The first-round losers pick up £10,000, very nearly as much as a player gets for winning a Pro Tour title. Win two matches and you are getting £30,000, semi-finalists get £50,000 and the runner up £100,000. This is a chance to pick up a lot of ranking prize money.

The 2025 PDC World Matchplay Format

All matches are in leg play format and all matches have to be won by two clear legs. If the scores are tied after the full distance, a further six extra legs can be played. If still tied, the match will be decided by a sudden death leg.

The matches are long format with the first round being the best of 19 legs, second round best of 21, quarter finals best of 31, semi-finals best of 33 and the final best of 35 legs.

It is this long format which favours the best players and why we have only seen the top nine players on the PDC O.O.M winning (outside of the behind closed doors event of 2020).

We are used to ‘outsiders’ winning on the Pro Tour and Euro Tour, but those are short format matches and everyone has a puncher’s chance. In the longer format, you need to be good for a longer period.

You do tend to get the same old faces qualifying for this event year in, year out. The only two debutants this year are Cameron Menzies and Wessel Nijman. Familiar faces who missed out this year are Michael Smith and the outlier winner form 2020, Dimitri van den Bergh. There is plenty of tournament form to get stuck into.

The PDC O.O.M – Top 16

1 Luke Humphries

Trying to become the first player in nine years to defend the title, and he comes here not in great form. He has won eight of his last ten, which is not bad, but by his very high standards he is not in great shape.

Humphries has not hit a ton plus average in his last ten matches and he has hit five sub 95 averages. Again, that is not bad form, but it is not his best, not close to it. He will hope that the longer format suits him more than most.

Looking at his longer format matches in 2025 he beat Luke Littler 11-8 in the Premier League final, and Nathan Aspinall 10-7 in the semi-final. He lost the quarter final of the UK Open 9-10 to James Wade. He won the final of the World Masters 6 sets to 5 against Jonny Clayton.

Seven Titles

Humphries has won seven ranking Major titles since October 2023, including this title in 2024. He has also successfully defended a Major title by winning the Players Championship finals in 2023 and 2024.

It is fair to say that the longer formats do suit him. It is also fair to say that at odds of just 5.00, you would have wanted to see him win a few more titles in 2025. He will face the very dangerous young Dutchman, Gian van Veen, in the first round.

2 Luke Littler

The number 2 seed, but arguably the best player in the world. In 2025, Littler has won the World Championship, the UK Open and the Belgian Darts Open.

It should be pointed out that he has only played two of the nine Euro Tour events played so far, and he has skipped thirteen of the twenty one Players Championship events. Otherwise, he would likely have picked up more silverware.

The concern for Littler is that by playing such a light schedule he may be lacking a bit of match fitness. Yes, these top players have a very heavy workload and he is managing his time in order to be fresh for these events, especially for the big ones in the latter half of the year, but he has been losing a few more matches than befits a 3.00 favourite.

Losing Habit?

Littler has won six of his last ten matches but lost the final of the Premier League, lost the quarter-final of the Nordic Masters, lost the quarter final of the US Darts Masters, the semi-final of the Poland Masters and failed to win the World Cup of Darts with Luke Humphries.

Littler has not actually played any ranking tournaments since the German Darts Grand Prix in April, which will have been welcomed by the other players, but just playing World Series exhibition tournaments to prepare for this event may not be ideal.

The good news for his supporters is that six of his last ten matches played saw six ton plus averages. His win rate in 2025 is a very healthy 74%, and the best win rate of all of the thirty-two players entered.

3 Michael van Gerwen

If Luke Littler’s preparation has been a little strange, MVG’s has been far from ideal. He struggled in the Premier League, failing to make the playoffs for just the second time.

Since the end of the PL in May, Van Gerwen has played just two events and only four matches, all of them World Series exhibitions. The reason was of course that his marriage has broken down and he has had to be sorting out his domestic affairs.

Watching him play, briefly, in those World Series event, it was clear that it is not just his marriage that is in trouble. His throw looked bad. Lots of shoulder and it is just not right.

One Win In 2025

MVG has won once on the Euro Tour in 2025 (he has only played in four) but has won nothing else. His last Major ranking title was the 2022 Players Championship Finals. He has won this title three times, the last in 2022. He was runner up last year. I would be surprised if he did so well this year.

Van Gerwen will face his old rival, Raymond van Barneveld in the first round. At the moment, I would not be confident of MVG beating many players and Barney may smell an opportunity.

4 Stephen Bunting

I put the curse on Bunting last weekend as he lost his opening match at the Baltic Sea Darts Open, but he is a player in good form.

He was runner up in PC20 last week, runner up in the Poland Masters, winner of PC18 and the Nordic Masters and won the International Darts Open on the Euro Tour in April. Four titles won in the first seven months of 2025 when he had only won three PDC titles in his previous eleven years in the PDC. Bunting is having his best season ever.

Major Struggles

His record in ranking PDC Majors has seen eleven quarter final defeats, and six semi-final defeats. His only TV title was at the 2024 Masters, a non-ranking event at the time. The question has to be, can Bunting version 2.0 get it over the final in a Major?

Given that he has won four titles in 2025, he is certainly much better equipped to do so. There are not many ‘easy’ first round draws in this event, but Bunting has got Ryan Joyce, who is struggling with his game right now. They met at the same stage here last year and it went to extra legs, Bunting winning 12-10.

5 Jonny Clayton

Back in top form. The Ferret was runner up here in 2023, at the same time that his father was seriously ill and who passed away not long after the final. His form dropped right off after that and it has taken him two years to get back to where he was.

Clayton was runner up in the new ranking World Masters at the start of the season and semi-finalist at the UK Open. He won the Dutch Darts Championship in May, along with PC14 at the same venue.

Clayton has won seven of his last ten matches and hit six ton plus averages. He is back winning titles and being competitive in the Majors. He is a proven winner and as one of the top seeds in the PDC OOM, he has to enter calculations.

6 Chris Dobey

It is a bit of a leap of faith to think that Dobey can pick up his first ranking Major title in this event. Yes, he is a top seed and he does have the ability, but in terms of big tournament pedigree? No.

He won the 2023 non-ranking Masters, but otherwise he has lost eight Major quarter finals and four semi-finals. His record here sees three first round exits and second round defeat and his best performance was to reach the quarter final in 2023.

Dobey has won seven of his last ten matches but still lacks the consistency to allow him to win the big events.

7 Damon Heta

Another player who loses a lot of Major quarter finals, eight so far, and one semi-final. His Matchplay record is three first round defeats and a quarter final.

The Heat has won eight of his last ten matches and won PC20 last week, but he bombed out in the Baltic Sea Darts Open at the weekend, losing his opening match in poor fashion.

He is very much in the same boat as Dobey. Heta wins a lot of legs, 58% is bettered only by Littler’s 60%, and his win rate in 2025 is 72%, again bettered only by Littler. However, Heta has lost three of his four first round matches here.

8 Nathan Aspinall

Blowing hot and cold at the moment. I fancied him to do well in the Baltic Darts Open at the weekend and he got of to a flier, averaging 99.45 when beating Pietreczko in the second round, but he was very poor in a 1-6 defeat to Danny Noppert in the third round, missing fourteen doubles.

There is nothing wrong with his A game, but it is his B game that is getting him beaten too often. The Asp has won six of his last ten matches and he is feeling confident, but four sub 93 averages in his last ten makes him vulnerable.

His tournament record sees him winning this in 2023 (so he is defending £200,000), reaching two other quarter finals, a second round loss and two first round exits. It is a good record and he may have another good run, if he can cut out the poor stuff. Aspinall has reached the quarter finals of the first three Majors in 2025.

9 James Wade

Between 2006 and 2015, James Wade reached six Matchplay finals, winning one in 2007. He renewed his love for the event last year making his first semi-final since 2015. He was runner up in this year’s UK Open, so he can still do it in the Majors.

Wade also won his first title since 2022 when he picked up PC19 a few weeks ago. He has won seven of his last nine matches and was a semi-finalist on the Euro Tour last weekend.

He is the last of the ‘magic nine’, the top nine seeds who have provided fourteen of the last fifteen Matchplay winners. Wade faces an out of form Joe Cullen in the first round. A dark horse?

10 Rob Cross

Being outside of the ‘magic nine’ top seeds means that recent history suggests that anyone not in the top nine will not make the final. Cross won this in 2019 but has gone out in the first or second round six times before making the quarter final last year. He has won six of his last ten matches and is playing some good stuff, but there is a bit too much inconsistency to think he can buck the trends.

11 Gerwyn Price

Has dropped out of the magic nine but is playing well enough to think he could buck the trend. Price has won eleven of his last twelve matches. He won the Baltic Sea Darts Open on Sunday night, was runner up in PC21 on the preceding Wednesday, was a semi-finalist in PC20, and won the Poland Masters before that.

The Iceman is the form player coming into the event but his tournament record is not great. He was runner up in 2022 and made two other quarter finals but has gone out in the first or second round seven times.

12 Dave Chisnall

His search for his first Major title looks like extending. Chizzy is not in good form, losing five of his last ten matches. He has lost five Matchplay quarter finals, but he has not got beyond the second round for the last six years.

13 Gary Anderson

Recovered from a bit of a barren spell by reaching the final of the Baltic Sea Darts Open on Sunday. He was playing with new kit and played some great stuff before a very ropey performance in the final, averaging 90 in a 3-8 defeat to Gerwyn Price.

Anderson has played in sixteen Matchplays. He won it in 2018 and was runner up behind closed doors in 2020. He has gone out in the first or second round for the last four years. Anderson has not reached a Major ranking final since 2021.

14 Ross Smith

A quarter finalist last year, Smudger has a win rate of 70% in 2025 and has picked up a Pro Tour title and a runner up spot on the Euro Tour. His firepower can blow opponents out of the water, but his B game lets him down too often.

Smith was a bit unlucky at the Baltic Sea Darts Open as he was one of three players whose luggage was lost on route to Germany and he had to play with different darts and flights etc.

He has won seven of his last ten matches, in-line with his seasonal form, but his 2022 European Championship win is beginning to look like a real outlier when it comes to Major championships.

15 Peter Wright

Still clinging on to his top 16 ranking but he will need to win a match or three this week to hang on to it. He is trying, has won six of his last ten matches and he is not as bad as he was late last season, but he is starting to find his new level, which will be outside the top 16.

16 Danny Noppert

A semi-finalist here in 2022, but otherwise not gone beyond the second round in his other five visits. Noppert was a beaten semi-finalist in last weekend’s Baltic Sea Darts Open, which was no great surprise. He loses quarter finals and semi-finals for fun.

In this year’s Majors he lost the semi-final of the World Masters, on the Euro Tour he has lost both his quarter finals and on the Pro Tour lost two semi-finals and a quarter final.

He did win the 2022 UK Open, but Michael Smith gift wrapped that one for him. He is a money farmer, will probably win a couple of matches, and bank a nice cheque. If he gets to the business end? He is easy to oppose.

Pro Tour OOM Qualifiers

History suggests that these guys are making up the numbers, but I will run through them to see if there are any very dark horses.

Martin Schindler

Has lost five of his last ten matches. His record in Majors is generally poor with just two quarter finals. Lost all three first round matches here.

Josh Rock

With a 2025 win rate of 70%, Rock has to be given some chance. He believes he is ready to win a Major, which is half the battle. Confidence is high after the World Cup win. He is having plenty of good runs but has found it hard to cross the winning line.

Played two and lost two matches here. Had his best result in a Major when semi-finalist at the UK Open earlier this year. I am prepared to entertain the thought of a good run for Rock, but I am yet to be convinced about his long format pedigree.

Cameron Menzies

One of the most improved players of the last year or two and his reward is to be making his Matchplay debut. He doesn’t have a lot of Major experience but did make the Grand Slam quarter finals last year.

Menzies has a 71% win rate in 2025, the third highest in the field, and won six of his last ten matches, but he is not in his best form right now scoring wise.

Gian van Veen

One for the future, but when does that future become the present? He has the game to beat anyone, and he has played well and lost matches in Majors, but his time will come. He has made a semi-final and two Major quarter finals in his brief career, and he is steadily improving, picking up experience, learning all the time.

Van Veen hasn’t yet reached his limit. His win rate in 2025 is 70%. Van Veen has won six of his last ten matches and the only weakness is a B game that needs to be more robust. He faces Luke Humphries in the first round and he is 1-4 vs the world number 1.

Wessel Nijman

The other debutant and that counts against him. Lacks Major experience, but like Van Veen has the game to trouble anyone. Lost to Gerwyn Price at the weekend and it was a match he should have won.

Like Van Veen, he needs to learn to grind out wins, to take his chances better. Has won six of his last ten matches but is playing with a little too much inconsistency right now.

Ryan Searle

He must be very frustrated. He has a superb A game and can just blow people away, but he struggles to have deep runs. Did his usual thing of winning early in the season but not done much since. Made the quarter final here in 2023 but likely to come up short sooner than later.

Mike de Decker

Lost on debut in 2023 but has won a Major since then. He has not done a lot since winning the Grand Prix last year. He has lost five of his last ten matches and while he can be very good, there are too many better players.

Dirk van Duijvenbode

Has lost six of his last ten matches. Dirk has hit the post too many times, and when he does, he can get a bit grumpy. He lost the final of PC17 and since then he has been very inconsistent.

Dirk simply doesn’t have the mental strength to match his talent. He has lost seven Major quarter finals, two semis and a final. Not officer material.

Jermaine Wattimena

Failed to qualify for the last three years and that means he has made progress and turned his form around. He may well be near his best form but he is another with a lack of self-belief.

Wattimena was runner up in last year’s European Championship, but otherwise his Major form is very ordinary. Has lost his four previous first round matches here.

Andrew Gilding

A quarter finalist here last year but outside of that shock 2023 UK Open win, he is a bit of a journeyman. He is doing well enough to keep on qualifying for Majors which keeps the meter ticking over but lightening is unlikely to strike twice. Winning a match will do for him. Gilding has won seven of his last ten matches, but he isn’t playing well enough to beat a better player in a longer format.

Daryl Gurney

He has a strong darting CV. Gurney has made at least a quarter final in every ranking Major outside of the Grand Slam, and won two. However, his last final was in 2018.

Superchin has played in nine Matchplays, made two semi-finals and a quarter-final, and it is that quarter final prizemoney that he is defending this week. Winning the World Cup will have given his confidence a boost but he isn’t making many deep runs.

He is winning matches, picking up cheques and staying in the top 32, but he needs to find more consistency if he is to return to the big time. He has won six of his nine first round matches here but has drawn Gezzy Price in the first round.

Joe Cullen

This is going to be hard for Joe. He was a semi-finalist here in 2023 and is defending £50,000. Despite his protestations, he isn’t as good as he thinks he is and he is finding his level but not accepting it.

Cullen has not quite fallen off the darting radar but his % of legs won in the last 12 months has fallen below 50% and that should make winning the longer matches harder. He has lost six of his last ten matches and is struggling.

Riccardo Pietreczko

Lost in the first round on debut last year and will do well to better that in 2025. Pikachu has been struggling with his scoring of late and while he has won six of his last ten matches, that flatters his game.

Luke Woodhouse

Another player who is coming into the event in poor form, losing six of his last ten matches. Lost on debut last year and faces Gary Anderson in the first round this year. He is a better player these days but lacking in confidence right now.

Raymond van Barneveld

Made his return here in 2023 and has lost his last two first round matches and not made the third since 2011. He can still have his good matches, but he has been struggling lately, losing five of his last ten matches. He faces his old rival, MVG, in the first round and for once, that may not be a bad draw.

Ryan Joyce

Has played in two previous Matchplays and lost both first round matches. When he is in good form, Joyce is a player to keep on your side, but he isn’t playing well right now. Six of his last ten matches have seen sub 90 averages and that will not do, especially against Stephen Bunting who he plays in the first round.

The 2025 PDC World Matchplay Draw

First Quarter

Humphries faces Gian van Veen in round 1 which is a tough opener. Humphries is 4-1 against Van Veen, but the young Dutchman is a very good player and it is not a given that Humphries wins. His form is OK, but he hasn’t been at his best in 2025. He did win the Premier League, but that is a different kettle of fish.

Danny Noppert is likely to come up short should he get past Cameron Menzies. Nathan Aspinall faces the dangerous Wessel Nijman in round one, and he won their only previous match 7-6 on the Euro Tour. The Asp is a former champion, so he has that in his memory bank.

James Wade just makes it into the magic nine, he is in decent form and has a winnable first round match. He also has a good recent record against Aspinall, who he may well face in the second round. They met in the second round here last year and Wade won 11-8.

Humphries, Aspinall or Wade for me, and at the odds, James Wade makes some appeal at 67.00.

Second Quarter

Stephen Bunting is the top seed in this quarter and he has a decent first round draw against an out of form Ryan Joyce. Gary Anderson should take care of Luke Woodhouse. A Bunting vs. Anderson second round match is a coin toss these days. A tough draw for both.

In the bottom half we have The Ferret Jonny Clayton who is back in form, and he faces Martin Schindler in round 1. They are 6-6 in the H2Hs, but on recent form, I give it to Clayton and expect Schindler’s losing record to continue in Blackpool. Clayton would then get De Decker or Chisnall, and he would be favourite to win that.

Bunting (21.00), Anderson (21.00) or Clayton (26.00) for me. At the odds I prefer Clayton. His path to the quarters is easier.

Third Quarter

Luke Littler heads up the bottom half of the draw in the third quarter. If he finds his A game after such a light schedule, and losing a few matches, he has to be fancied to come through. His path to the quarters looks fairly straight forward as he plays Ryan Searle in the first round (3-0) and Wright (6-1) or Wattimena (4-0) in the second.

The bottom half of the quarter has a few dodgepots. Heta, Dirk and Cross. Heta plays Gilding in round 1 and he has lost his last two to Goldfinger. Cross and Van Duijvenbode can be anything, but the one thing they have in common is a terrible H2H record vs. Littler. It is very hard to get away from Littler to win the quarter.

Fourth Quarter

Potential finalists from this quarter? Rock and Price, and they are both outside the magic nine, but maybe trends are there to be broken in 2025? Rock faces Ross Smith in round 1, as he did last year and Smith won that 10-4. When they met in this year’s UK Open it was 10-9 to Rock. Not an easy one for Rock.

Price faces his old sparring partner, Daryl Gurney. These two have played some real crackers in the past, but when not drawing in the Premier League, Price is 13-5 and has to be fancied to progress. I would have to give Price the nod as winner of the quarter.

2025 PDC World Matchplay Summary

The recent history of this tournament, the post-Taylor era, suggests that we should be concentrating on the top nine PDC OOM seeds, and the top two in particular. However, in the last fifteen years there have only been three finals between the top two seeds. There have been more between the first and third seeds (four).

Littler is the 3.00 favourite, Humphries 5.00. Both have some question marks regarding their recent form and neither represent any great value in my book. That is not to say they won’t win, just that their odds are only realistic at best.

Littler has the better draw, by some way, and we might be talking about finding someone to finish second to him. But you never know, he could have a slip.

2025 PDC World Matchplay Selections

Betfred are the tournament sponsors and they are offering each way terms of 1/4 the odds 1-4. The other bookies are the usual 1/2 the odds 1-2. The sponsors offer is a decent one and their odds competitive, so they get my business this week. All the outright selections are with Betfred.

I will ignore the magic nine rule for the first selection, mainly because he is in great form and winning things again.