2025 Qatar GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Qatar GP outright betting preview. Things didn’t go our way in Sin City, James Punt is hoping to bounce back.

2025 Qatar GP

First up is a post-mortem on the Las Vegas GP, and there were a lot of bodies. In the end, we were not a million miles off a good result. Kimi Antonelli started the race in 17th place and finished 4th. The pace was there, but the wet qualifying did for his chances.

We had a small e/w bet on Russell on race day and he finished third for a massive 0.10 point profit. Russell had been handicapped by a power steering issue in qualifying, and it reappeared in the race. Our bets on the Racing Bulls were knackered on lap one after Lawson crashed into someone…again. I really must resist the temptation to back him as he just can’t do close racing.

Albon’s Early Woes

Alex Albon’s chances were also ended on lap one. Charles Leclerc for pole was ended by the rain and our only winner was Carlos Sinaz to finish in the points. Overall, it was -6.80 loss. That was the worst result of the year and makes it hard to see a profit by the end of the season. It was a make or break sort of race, and unfortunately it broke us. The season’s account now stands @ -7.14 points with just two races to go. If it could go, wrong it did.

The race also had a sting in the tail for our ante post bet on Lando Norris to win the World Championship. Both McLarens were disqualified for having excess wear on the plank under the car, the same thing that caused the Ferraris to be disqualified in China. The result is that Norris is still 24 points ahead of Piastri, but he now has Verstappen 24 points behind him as well.

Lando Still Fav

There are two races to go, plus a Sprint race at this weekend’s Qatar GP, still plenty of scope for Verstappen, and I suppose Piastri, to come out on top. Norris is still the firm favourite to win the title. He is now the 1.36 favourite, Verstappen 4.00 and Piastri 21.00.

Norris is still in a very strong position in terms of the championship. If he can finish this weekend 26 points or more ahead of Verstappen and Piastri, he is the World Champion.

The 2025 Qatar GP Track

This track was first used for F1 racing in 2021. It wasn’t on the 2022 calendar due to the FIFA World Cup being played at the same time but was used for the last two years. It was designed for Moto GP bike racing and was never intended as a long-term venue. A new track was due to be built, but the circuit then got a 10-year contract and the new track idea was binned.

It is another floodlit venue and Verstappen will be in full bat mode due to all the night races, including next weekend’s Abu Dhabi race.

Heat and humidity were a big issue in the second race here. Ocon was sick in his helmet and Sargeant retired due to heat stroke. Stroll said he had passed out at one stage and various drivers had to go to the medical centre with heat stroke after the race.

You may have thought that the FIA may have had second thoughts about having a race here, but there was a 10-year contract that had been signed, and the hosting fee was no doubt huge.

Last Year

Last year’s race saw five DNFs and it is a track that has seen a lot of collisions and subsequent retirements. The layout of the track is a bit mickey mouse. Flat as a pancake, one long straight with sixteen corners and only one DRS zone.

It is fast and flowing and a very physical race, given the near constant cornering and the high temperatures. The physicality is its claim to fame and anyone lacking in a bit of fitness could be making mistakes in the latter stages.

The three GPs here have been won from the front row of the grid, twice from pole position. When we first raced here in 2022 the race was marred by a number of front left tyre failures. For the second race in 2023, Pirelli mandated that tyres could only be run for a maximum of 18 laps for safety reasons.

25-lap tyre limit

For this weekend’s race, drivers will be forced to spend no longer than 25 laps on any set of tyres in Losail following an announcement by Pirelli earlier this month. That means we will definitely have a two-stop race. In 2023 it was mandated as a three-stop race.

It is usually foolish to stop more than once due to the time penalty for stopping, but if your car suffers from more tyre degradation than your rival, making everyone stop twice, means you get the benefit of three new sets of tyres in the race. Your parsimonious tyre using rivals must also make two stops and lose the advantage of good tyre preservation.

McLaren have had the advantage of lower tyre wear, especially on the rears and in hotter conditions. That advantage is not what it was in the first half of the season, but this mandated two stop race is certainly not going to help them.

The Weather

Hot and hazy during the day and even after sunset it will be 22 degrees with 65% humidity. There is 0% chance of rain and the conditions will be constant across all three days.

2025 Qatar GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Will be licking their wounds after a double disqualification in Las Vegas. I wouldn’t be expecting any repeat of the issue this weekend. The fact that McLaren have struggled at Vegas in the past meant they introduced some setup changes.

The wet weather then prevented any meaningful long runs and they went onto the race running the car a bit lower, but without the data that would have highlighted the potential for a problem. It is not the same as Ferrari’s problem which has been a season long one due to a design issue.

Positives For Piastri

This is a track where Oscar Piastri has had the beating of Lando Norris. The Aussie has finished 2nd and 3rd in his two GPs here, finishing ahead of Norris in both. In the Sprint races, Piastri has qualified in pole position in both appearances. He dropped to third in 2023, with Norris winning and last year he won from pole with Norris in second place.

If Piastri can be fancied to beat Norris anywhere it would be here. However, we have to consider his recent form. Piastri has finished fifth in the last four GPs and hasn’t had a podium finish in the last six. He has been out qualified by Norris in the last four GP qualifying sessions. He has not recovered from that weekend in Azerbaijan.

Mercedes 

Now forty points clear of Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship. It was very frustrating that Antonelli went out in Q1 in Vegas. The car was flying in the dry and that was his best chance of getting a race win in his debut year.

We are now moving to a much warmer track and out of Mercedes’ ideal range, but the youngster is in good form and now just fifteen points behind Lewis Hamilton in the Drivers’ Championship. He did quite a bit of junior formula racing in the Middle East, but has only raced here in F2, and with no joy, failing to finish in either the Sprint or Feature race.

George Russell got his ninth podium of the season in Vegas. He has gone well here for Mercedes, finishing fourth in the last two years and he qualified on pole last year, but only thanks to Verstappen getting a one place penalty for driving unnecessarily slowly in Q3.

Russell has qualified fourth for both sprint races here and finished second and third. In 2023, Russell clashed with Hamilton at the first corner and was put to the back of the pack, but he was still able to finish fourth. The temperatures don’t look too high for this weekend, so both Mercedes are in the frame for a podium.

Ferrari 

Leclerc was just not comfortable with the Ferrari in the wet in Vegas. It was fine in the dry, but he says it just gets very unpredictable when its wet. There will be no rain to throw a spanner in the works this weekend.

Charles Leclerc was second here last year but that was the first podium for Ferrari in Qatar and it has not been a good venue for them in the sprints or GPs.

Hamilton just seems to have given up on 2025. Four eighth places from the last six races and he has been out qualified in the last ten GP qualifying sessions by his teammate. Hamilton won here in 2021 but since than hasn’t scored a point in the GPs and no better than sixth in the sprints.

Williams 

Still can’t have a good weekend with both cars. Sainz was very good in Vegas, qualifying third and finishing seventh (promoted to fifth). The track was always looking likely to suit Williams but Albon could only manage sixteenth in qualifying, after crashing in Q1.

He crashed into Hamilton in the first stint, needed to stop for a new wing and then retired from the race. He has now gone six GPs without scoring. Sainz has racked up 26 points from the same races and he is 7-2 in the last nine qualifying sessions vs his teammate. Albon has never scored a point here and it is not a track that Williams are going to be suited to.

Racing Bulls 

Had a really good weekend in Vegas, until Lawson decided to play Demolition Derby at the start of the GP. He has to remember that the cars in front will brake when they reach a corner. He has shown some signs of improvement, but he is just too prone to crashing into other cars.

Hadjar made up a couple of places with the disqualification of the two McLarens, but his race pace, or that of the car, remains poor. Hadjar was 4th and 2nd in the two F2 races here last year, so he has had a sighter of the track, as has Lawson. The Kiwi has raced here twice in F1 but with no success.

Haas 

ended up in ninth and tenth in Vegas, but only after the post-race DQ for the McLarens. It was enough to move them one place ahead of Aston Martin in the Constructors’ Championship. That point is currently worth $10 million.

Bearman won the F2 sprint race here last year. Ocon has a 5th and 7th place but that was with Alpine. Haas scored some minor points here last year in both the sprint and GP. They have to be fancied to pick up another one or two this weekend. Probably with Bearman.

Aston Martin 

It is all going south for Aston Martin. They have scored just three points at the Sao Paulo sprint race from the last three race weekends. They have now been overtaken by Haas and now also have Sauber right up their chuff.

Yesterday they announced that Adrian Newey is to take over as Team Principle. It seems madness has broken out at the Silverstone based squad. I think that makes it five Team Principles in the last four years.

Adrian Newey is regarded as the best F1 car designer of the modern era. He has never been a team manager and seems badly equipped to be one. I suspect he is just keeping the seat warm for Christian Horner.

Sauber 

Have quietly had a run of four consecutive points finishes and are just four points behind Aston Martin for eighth place. They will not be helped by Bortoleto having a five-place grid penalty for this weekend thanks to his stupid crash at the start of the Vegas GP.

That is three consecutive crashes for Bortoleto. Two in Sao Paulo and then one in Vegas. He is a rookie and all that, but he needs to calm down a bit.

Since Hulkenberg has improved his qualifying, he has picked up points in three of the last four races. He picked up a couple of sprint race points here last year. With Williams likely to struggle here, Hulkenberg’s claims for another points finish are improved.

Alpine 

Gasly is extracting the most out of the car that seems possible. Back-to-back Q3s in qualifying but it is hard to stay in the points in a very poor car. He wasn’t helped in Vegas when he was caught up in Bortoleto’s ram raid in the first corner. Back on a higher speed circuit, the team hope to be more competitive.

2025 Qatar GP Summary

Even with some very close battles further down the field, all eyes will be on the front runners this weekend. McLaren’s disqualification in Vegas has set it up for a final race decider, but Norris could yet spoil that party. The owners of F1 love a last race decider, and that might have an impact on this race.

Norris will have a target on his back. Not only are Verstappen and Piastri chasing him for the title, the powers that be would rather Norris didn’t wrap up the title this weekend. He will have to keep his nose clean and not give the stewards any opportunity to stick him with a penalty.

The global TV audience for a final race decider would be worth much gold to the rights’ holders, and while I am sure that the stewards and race director bend over backwards to be impartial, sometimes they get pushed over.

Maybe a lap time deleted in qualifying for track limits, maybe a jumped start, again. There are so many ways to keep the show on the road all the way to Abu Dhabi next weekend. And of course, if Verstappen just beats Norris fair and square then that’s fine, and he is favourite to do so.

Track form

Verstappen’s record here in the GPs is 2/1/1. His form since we came back after the summer break is 2/1/1/2/1/3/3/1. Rock solid stuff and he now has a nice, fast track on which he has done so well at, and that the Red Bull will love.

Norris has also been good since the summer break, but he scored no points in the Netherlands through no fault of his own. He only finished seventh in Baku and was disqualified from second place last weekend. Getting nerfed off the track in the US GP sprint race by his own teammate didn’t help either.

Piastri, on the other hand, has just been off the pace. Last week he got beaten by an 18-year-old kid who started twelve places behind him. It does look like a two-horse race, so long as Norris doesn’t suffer another big problem.

Front Row Key

Norris has had the last three pole positions and a front row is the minimum he needs here. It hasn’t been a great track for him, but it should suit the McLaren. He is the hunted, and not the hunter. He can take a leaf out of Verstappen’s book and be aggressive in defence, but then he might end up handing Piastri a gift.

Norris tried, and failed, to be aggressive at the start of the Las Vegas GP, but at least he showed intent. Verstappen said that it was the right thing to do, but tricky with such a short run into a tight and dusty first corner.

RB May be Faster

The Red Bull may well be the faster car this weekend, so Norris may have no chance to defend. My guess is that he will just want to keep one place behind Verstappen, or beat him if he can.

Verstappen is the 2.38 favourite to win, Norris 3.00 and Piastri 8.00. While Piastri has gone well here, his recent form has been poor and his head has dropped. Verstappen always goes strongly here, not so much in the sprints, and he is in top form.

Norris is in great form, this has been a bit of a bogey track for him but he has gone very well in the sprints. Perhaps it just been a case of McLaren hitting the ground running here, while Red Bull have had to wait until after the sprint to find their best setup, a bit like was the case in Sao Paulo.

2025 Qatar GP Ante Post Selections

After last week’s carnage I am happy to go easy on the early bets, but there are three which I am keen on.

The five Sprint qualifying sessions in 2025 have produced five different pole sitters. The races have had three different winners, Norris twice, Verstappen twice and Hamilton once.

For this weekend’s Sprint race McLaren get my vote. They have won both the previous Qatar Sprints and with Norris in good form hopefully they can make it three in a row.

2025 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the Sprint race @ 2.88 with Betfred

While the McLarens have dominated the Sprints in Qatar, it is Verstappen who has won the last two GPs here, and was runner up in the other. Red Bull are very good at using the data gathered from the first three sessions to fine tune their setup for the GP qualifying and especially the race.

2025 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win the Grand Prix @ 2.38 with Betfred

In the last five GPs, Nico Hulkenberg has an average qualifying position of 11.20, compared to a seasonal average of 14.57. He has upped his game and is now starting closer to the points paying positions.

His seasonal average finishing position is 11.75 and since they sorted the car out at the Spanish GP, he has had seven points finishes from fifteen races. He was never happy in qualifying until the Italian GP and since then he has improved his qualifying average by 4.45 places. He is setting up many more chances to finish in the points and has done so in three of the last four races.

Laser Focused Sauber

Sauber are flat out trying to beat Aston Martin. They will be laser focused on getting as many points from Hulkenberg as possible this weekend. His teammate has got a five-place grid penalty, so the onus is on Hulkenberg.

If the Williams’ cars are likely to struggle, they hate tracks with lots of fast corners, that should free up a space in the top ten. It is also a track where collisions are a common occurrence, so maybe that is Lawson in trouble. Hulkenberg is smart enough to know how important this weekend is.

He will know to keep out of trouble, don’t do anything stupid and be there at the end. If he does that, then he can help the team beat Aston Martin, and pick up another $10 million.

Aston Martin have scored just seven GP points from the last seven races. They are having another round of managerial musical chairs and seem to be in a bit of a mess. They had a very solid mid-season run, but they have fallen away and are there for the taking.

2025 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points (Grand Prix) @ 3.00 with BET365, Boylesports

-JamesPunt