2025 Qatar GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Qatar GP Raceday preview. We landed three winners from three bets in qualifying, hopefully we can keep the momentum going.

2025 Qatar GP Raceday

Qualifying was a successful recovery session and now we finally get to the main course.

We are on Max Verstappen ante post and he would have to be the first driver to win from off the front row if that was to come in. The Red Bull hasn’t been on the pace all weekend and unlike Sao Paulo, Verstappen is too far up the grid to break Parc ferme rules, rebuild the car and start from the pit lane. He was 0.264s off Piastri’s time and never really looked to be in the frame, but he is not completely out of it.

Piastri is the 1.57 favourite and he is going for the clean sweep of being first in every session across the Sprint race weekend. That would be a haul of 33 points and would put a sizeable dent in Norris’ World Championship lead, depending on where Norris can finish.

Norris can win the title today but he would need to win and Piastri to finish 9th or lower. Norris is a 4.00 second favourite and Verstappen 7.00 with the win only books.

First Corner Key

The Qatar GP is a bit of a first corner GP. Whoever comes through that in the lead usually wins. The pole sitter has won two and was fourth last year. The driver starting in second is reckoned to be at a disadvantage as that side of the track tends to be dusty and lacking in grip. Those starting from second have finished 11th, 4th and 1st. The driver starting from third has finished 3rd, DNF and 10th. I am happy to just skip the outright winner market today.

Indeed, this race is all a bit first lap defined. It tends to produce DRS trains and is a bit dull to be honest, much like yesterday’s sprint race. This year we have a mandated two stop race due to Pirelli’s anxiety about potential punctures. The tyres have been fine and I suggest that this is just an experiment to see if it can make the race a bit less dull.

Strategies

Having three sets of tyres to go through might mix things up from a strategic point of view. The drivers still have to use two different compounds. All the drivers have at least two sets of new medium compound tyres and a new set of hard tyres.

All the drivers outside of the top ten also have a set of new soft tyres, with the exception of Lawson. It is reckoned that the soft tyre is a risk as nobody has done any long runs on it, but it may be an option for the final stint when the fuel loads are low and the track is rubbered in.

The fact that the drivers have to make two stops will help the cars that tend to be a bit harder on their tyres, but it also takes away the strategic option for the cars in the bottom half of the grid to put on the hard tyres and do a long first stint and a one stop strategy. We shall just have to wait and see how it works out.

Russell Interesting

It will be interesting to see how Russell gets on. He starts on the dirty side of the track, alongside his old nemesis, Max Verstappen. It is fair to say they do not see eye to eye and Verstappen, so often the aggressor at the start of races, will be wary of Russell.

The Mercedes’ driver’s season is over. He will finish fourth whatever happens in the last two races. Mercedes are all but assured of second place in the Constructors’ Championship. Russell can just have a bit of fun with Max, maybe help his old pal Norris to finish ahead of Verstappen, and end his World Championship bid. I am not saying that he will just ram Verstappen off the road, but he could.

Isack Hadjar starts from sixth place and he may be one of those drivers who will benefit from having an extra set of new tyres. In the last five races where he has qualified Q3, he has dropped places in four of them. Only in Vegas did he improve on his grid position, and that was only by one place, and was thanks to the two McLarens being disqualified.

Alonso Can Benefit

Carlos Sainz is another that has not been able to match his Q3 qualifiers in the race, so maybe he will benefit. Alonso should benefit as the Aston does tend to get less competitive as the weekend goes on. That is exactly what he has done so far, dropping places session by session.

We are on Hulkenberg to finish in the points at 3.00, now 2.25. He missed out on Q3 by 0.003s yesterday and, just as in the sprint qualifying, it was the final sector which he dropped time in.

This will be the fourth time he will have started eleventh since the Singapore GP. He converted two of the three into a top ten and he has scored points in three of the last four races. My biggest worry is that he is alongside Liam Lawson on the grid and the Kiwi is an accident waiting to happen.

Pierre Gasly deserves a medal for dragging his Alpine into the top ten for the ninth time this season. He has only converted three into points finishes, and one of those was due to a two-place postrace promotion in Vegas. He is just 2.10 to finish in the points today, which is a bit short.

It is difficult to see much in the way of value for today’s race.

Lawson Woes

Perhaps Liam Lawson not to be classified? He has had five DNFs from the first twenty two races so odds of 5.50 are hardly giving much away, but this is track that does lend itself to collisions. Collisions accounted for three DNFs here last year, all on the first lap, but Stroll did limp on for a few more laps before retiring.

Hamilton was out on lap 1 in 2023 after hitting Russell at the first corner. Lawson spun off here in the 2023 sprint race, and there were a further three collision related retirements. Lawson does find it hard to avoid hitting other cars when racing in close formation and the first lap here will be a test for him. However, it just falls short of the value bet threshold.

2025 Qatar GP Raceday: Group Betting

Nico Hulkenberg is tempting to win Unibet’s Group 2 at 9.00. He is grouped with Alonso and the two Ferraris. The Ferrari is a bad car this weekend. Very difficult to drive. At slower speeds in the race, it may be a little easier, but they are opposable. Alonso does go well here and the two stops should help him. We have already backed Hulkenberg for a points finish and if I back him again, something bad will happen.

Unibet have Williams’ Alex Albon at 6.00 to win Group 3. He is grouped with Liam Lawson, Bearman and Tsunoda. Lawson and Bearman start just ahead of him and Tsunoda just behind him.

The Williams is a surprisingly quick car this weekend and Albon had been top ten in the first three sessions but he made a mess of qualifying and starts from fourteenth. He has only won this particular group once in the last seven races and he is in poor form.

Group 2

Ladbrokes have Fernado Alonso as the 8.00 outsider in Group 2, where he is grouped with Hadjar, Sainz and Leclerc. Hadjar and Sainz generally drop back in the races when they qualify well. Alonso and Leclerc tend to hold their places.

With the mandated two stop race, that might change, but the feeling is that Aston Martin are one of the teams that may benefit most by the extra stop and fresher tyres. Alonso has finished third, sixth and seventh in the three GPs here so he likes the track.

The Ferrari would normally be a stick on to win this group but they are struggling badly. The long run pace of the Astons has been decent and estimated to be a little faster than the Ferrari, Williams and Racing Bulls.

Alonso is worth a small bet at the odds and hopefully he can make a good start, which is vital here, and also that the two stopper helps.

2025 Qatar GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Alonso to win Group 2 @ 8.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt