2025 Qatar GP Sprint Qualifying

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Qatar GP Sprint Qualifying preview. James has already posted his outright preview, click here to read it.

2025 Qatar GP Sprint Qualifying

Oscar Piastri topped the time sheet for the first time since FP2 in Singapore, five race weekends ago. He was just 0.058s ahead of his teammate Lando Norris in second place.

We then have two unlikely lads in third and fourth, with Alonso and Sainz respectively. Odd.

We are getting used to seeing Hadjar well up the lists and he was fifth fastest, just ahead of his teammate for 2026, Max Verstappen.

It is only FP1, but it is also the only session the drivers get before the important sessions start. The teams can change or tweak their setups before the start of this evenings Sprint Qualifying but then it is locked in until after the Sprint race tomorrow.

Verstappen was nearly 0.6s off the pace of the McLarens and Verstappen gave the team a long shopping list of what he needs improved. Steering, suspension, the power unit and gearbox. Red Bull are very good at turning a poorly setup car into the best it can be, but in these Sprint formats, they only have three hours to turn it around.

Sao Paulo

In Sao Paulo, the most recent Sprint weekend, they were in very bad shape after FP1. Verstappen seventeenth and Tsunoda twentieth. They improved to sixth and eighteenth. They didn’t really sort the car out until after qualifying proper, and that was by breaking park ferme rules and changing a lot, including the floor and power unit. That meant a pit lane start.

It shows that Red Bull are not guaranteed to be able to turn things around in a few hours. That said, they are not in quite as much bother as they were in Brazil.

Other teams that didn’t hit the ground running were Ferrari. Leclerc in eighth and complaining about his power steering. Hamilton was twelfth. Again, they were terrible in FP1 in Sao Paulo and turned it around to end up eighth and eleventh in sprint qualifying. Still not good, but better.

Mercedes went well on the hard tyre earlier but dropped down the order on the softs ending up with Antonelli in tenth and Russell fourteenth. They too turned things around in Sao Paulo and Antonelli went from tenth to second.

Dangerous

What I am getting at, is that reading too much into FP1 and what is likely to happen in Sprint Qualifying is dangerous. McLaren will be happy and the rest are chasing them. They will be very much in the mix. McLaren have been fastest in both previous Sprint Qualifyings here. I think we know where we stand regarding McLaren, the rest? Not so much.

There is only one value bet for me here. Oscar Piastri. In the two previous Sprint qualifiers in Qatar he has finished first and third. In the five Sprint qualifiers in 2025 he has always finished top three. At the odds we are nearly breaking even if he can finish top 3 and we are getting something of a free hit on him being fastest.

2025 Qatar GP Sprint Qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w Oscar Piastri to be fastest qualifier (Sprint) @ 5.50 with BET365, Skybet, Betfair (1/5 the odds 1-3)

I was tempted by a couple of match bets. Antonelli to beat Russell at 2.77, and Norris to beat Verstappen at 1.74. Both are 2-3 in the sprint qualifiers in 2025 but both were quicker in FP1. Antonelli is hitting some good form and Verstappen has some ground to make up from FP1. Both are with Livescorebet, but I will be disciplined and wait for the weekend to unfold and the form to become a little clearer.

-JamesPunt