2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying preview and tips. You can check out his outright betting, team by team preview and tips here.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying

This looks all set for a close qualifying session, but will it just be between the two McLarens, or as the temperatures fall, will we see the likes of Verstappen and Russell join the party? Certainly, the McLarens hold a big advantage the hotter the conditions.

The track temperature in FP3 started at 53 degrees, falling to 45 degrees at the end. In FP2 yesterday, held at the same time as qualifying will be, the track temperature was 37 degrees. So the pecking order may change.

The FP2 session was the more representative session in terms of track conditions, but last year, it was the FP3 session that was a better guide for what happened in qualifying. The 1,2,3 in FP3 were the 1,2,3 in qualifying.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

You couldn’t get a fag paper between the two drivers. It looks to be a coin toss to me. Norris has been faster in all three sessions but only in FP2 was it by more than a hundredth of a second. Norris is the 2.20 favourite for pole, Piastri 2.25.

Red Bull 

Verstappen is a threat, despite being 0.845 off the best time in FP3. However, it will need to be a lap on a par with his Suzuka special and he was ‘only’ about 0.6 off the pace after FP3 there. He is a 13.00 shot. I think he is too far off this time, but he is good around this track and you never know, but it is a longshot. Yuki Tsunoda is doing OK and should make it into Q3.

Merecedes 

Russell was much better today, third fastest in FP3. He has been second quickest in two of the four qualifying sessions in 2025 and he should find himself top 4 at least. Antonelli is in danger of missing Q3, but should just scrape in.

Ferrari 

Just not enough grip or downforce. Leclerc was nearly 0.9 off the pace today and said that was as good as it could be. Lewis Hamilton just struggles in qualifying these days and he was down in twelfth place in FP3. There is a very good chance that he misses out on Q3.

Williams 

Looking best of the rest this weekend. Sixth and seventh in FP3 tells us that. Good enough to be ahead of the second Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari. Both should reach Q3.

Alpine 

Gasly was fastest in FP1, and eighth in the other two sessions. Alpine know how to be quick here and despite being short on horses, The Gas Man should get his third Q3 of the season. Doohan just missed Q3 in Bahrain, but he knew that track well. He hasn’t been better than fifteenth so far this weekend and is likely to go out in Q2 once more.

Racing Bulls 

All over the place so far. Changing rear wings in two of the three sessions is a worry. Hadjar was eleventh in FP3, so he is a possible for Q3, but he may just miss out again. Lawson should make Q2. Hadjar can be backed at 3.00 to make Q3, which nearly had me reaching for my wallet, but I think he might be a place or two shy.

Aston Martin 

Alonso has been fourteenth or fifteenth in each session so far. He has qualified thirteenth in three of the four qualifying sessions in 2025. I think he can guess whereabouts he will be later. Stroll will fail to get out of Q1 for the third time in a row.

Haas 

Found a little more pace today but nowhere near enough. Both are likely to go out in Q1.

Sauber 

Running with a very low downforce package and Hulkenberg has shown flashes of acceptable pace, but very likely to go out in Q1.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying: Summary

McLaren look untouchable, but we have seen this movie before. The pack usually gets closer in qualifying proper. That said, they have had three of the four pole positions so far and I would be surprised if they didn’t make four from five. It is too close to call between the two drivers and I will not be backing either.

If we are to see one of the chasers getting close, it will be Verstappen or Russell. Verstappen hit the jackpot in Suzuka, Russell hit the post in Bahrain and China. Both are 13.00 shots.

It will very likely be a good value loser, but Russell might grab second place for the third time in 2025.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying Tip: 0.5 point e/w George Russell to be fastest qualifier @ 13.00 generally available

Going in double handed on Russell may bring on the wrath of the betting gods, but he looks a decent bet to beat the Ferrari of Leclerc later. He is 3-1 vs. Leclerc in 2025 and was 0.256 faster in FP3. Leclerc sounded defeatist on the radio. Russell, Mr. Saturday, is usually trustworthy to max it out in qualifying.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to out qualify Charles Leclerc @ 1.74 with Livescorebet

Pierre Gasly has been on it in every session so far. He looks a solid shout to make Q3 and he has been eighth in the last two sessions. He qualified fifth in Bahrain, so his tail is up. Ladbrokes have matched him with Yuki Tsunoda, which is an interesting pairing.

Tsunoda has been doing OK, much closer to Verstappen at times. He is certainly a better choice than Lawson was for Red Bull. He did stuff it in the wall in FP2 which may make him a little more cautious than is ideal on a confidence track.

Gasly has made Q3 here in three of his four visits, including a sixth for Alpha Tauri in 2021. He is 2-0 against Tsunoda since the Japanese joined Red Bull. I will give Gasly the nod.

2025 Saudi Arabia GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Pierrie Gasly to out qualify Yuki Tsunoda @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt