2025 Singapore GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Singapore GP outright betting preview. We had a small loss overall in Baku, hopefully we get back on the winning trail this weekend.

2025 Singapore GP

It was a frustrating Azerbaijan GP. All three bets on the Williams cars lost, despite them having a podium finish. Albon should really have had a points finish but a strange strategy and a ten second penalty saw him end up 13th. Sainz wasn’t able to hang on to second place. We ended up -0.86 down and the season to date tally is -3.95 points.

This weekend we have another street race, but on a very different track to the streets of Azerbaijan.

The Singapore GP was first run in 2008. It was the first night race in F1 and the race was the scene of the famous ‘Crashgate’ controversy when the then Renault team boss, Flavio Briatore, secretly ordered his number 2 driver, Nelson Piquet Jr., to crash on lap fifteen in order to give an advantage to Fernando Alonso, who had just pitted. He ended up winning the race. Amazingly, Briatore is now back at the same team as a defacto team principle.

The 2025 Singapore GP Track

Where Singapore and Azerbaijan are similar is that both are dominated by 90-degree corners. Azerbaijan features the longest straight in F1, Singapore has straights but not particularly long.

It is a true street circuit and as a result it is a very bumpy surface. The weather is always hot and humid and it is a strange situation for the drivers to get used to a different time zone and racing in the evening. With 19 corners, it is a very busy lap and the drivers have to work hard. It is a very physical race and the drivers lose a lot of weight over the course of the race. Dehydration is a problem.

The track is very unforgiving, as a street circuit should be. Mistakes can easily lead to retirements. Overtaking is difficult and usually done under braking into one of the many 90-degree corners. Singapore is better than Monaco, but not as good as Baku.

Slow Lap

It is a slow lap due to the many corners and the races here tend to run very close to two hours, the longest on the calendar. The time spent in the car is another reason why it is so tough on the drivers.

The race has been won by four different constructors. Four for Ferrari, four for Mercedes, four for Red Bull and two for McLaren. The last five races here have seen five different drivers winning.

Last year’s race was the first not to feature a safety car, or even a yellow flag. There was only one DNF last year but usually the attrition rate is high. In the turbo hybrid ear the average is 3.77 per race, with a high of eight and a low of one (twice). Since 2014 the driver in pole position has won six of the nine races here, and a total of ten of the fifteen races here.

The 2025 Singapore GP Weather Forecast

The weather forecast for Singapore is always the same. Hot, humid, and a high potential for thunderstorms. All of the on-track action takes place late in the day. FP1 and FP3 are run at 17.30 – 18.30, FP2 at 21.00 – 22.00. Qualifying is at 21.00 and the race starts at 20.00 on Sunday.

Historically, most of the thunderstorms take place in the afternoon and we usually get away with dry sessions, but there has been rain affected sessions.

Friday evening is forecast to be around 27 degrees with a 55% chance of rain. Saturday evening will be 27 degrees with only a 9% chance of rain. For the race on Sunday, it will be cloudy and 27 degrees with a 15% of showers.

Heat Alert

Formula 1 has declared its first ever Heat Hazard for the Singapore Grand Prix, meaning drivers now have to decide if they want to wear cooling vests in the race or carry extra ballast on the car.

After the Qatar 2023 race, in which some drivers became dangerously dehydrated and even had to retire from the race, the FIA came up with the idea of cooling vests, which would become mandatory if the temperatures were forecast to be over 31 degrees at any time during the race.

However, the practicalities of fitting the drivers into cramped cockpit in what was effectively a padded jacket meant that some drivers didn’t want it.

Caved In

The FIA caved in and made the use of the jackets voluntary. As the jackets add extra weight, the new system means that those that do not want them will have to carry extra weight. It is only 0.5 kg so the time penalty is small, but would having a ‘cool’ driver in the car outweigh the extra weight on the car?

That is hard to say. George Russell used the device in the Bahrain GP, even though it was not a Heat Alert race. He said that it did help him feel a lot more comfortable. The heat in the cockpit is way above 31 degrees even in cooler conditions, so having a cooled fluid being pumped around your body is going to feel nice, but it does have performance benefits. It reduces core temperatures and that reduces sweating which reduces fluid loss which improves cognitive performance.

Dehydration Dangerous

Dehydration is dangerous. If you have ever had heat stroke caused by dehydration, you will know all about it. It can make you go doolally. Even in milder forms it reduces your levels of concentration and reaction times, a bit like having a few drinks, ironically.

If you are driving a Formula 1 car around a very physically challenging street track for the best part of two hours, where mistakes can mean the end of your race, it is a no brainer to do anything you can to avoid dehydration.

Unfortunately, the FIA compromise means we do not know who is going to be smart and wear one, or who is going to be a macho man, and tough it out.

Majority

All the drivers have personal fitness trainers and all of them will tell their drivers to wear one. I suspect the majority will do. The fact that Mercedes have already used the system in action and their driver gave it the thumbs up tells me that Russell and Antonelli will wear a cooling vest.

It also tells me that that the team will have done some work on their system since then. Russell said after Bahrain that “For us as a team, they’ve been putting in so much hard work and had the confidence that the system would work that I wanted to give it a whirl. So far, so good.”

The smarter, better resourced and managed teams will have worked on the system to make it more efficient, more comfortable and most importantly, lighter.

Weight Key

Formula 1 car development is in a large part about making every part as light as possible. The cars all have a minimum weight, and you want to be under it. That means you must add ballast to reach the minimum weight, but you can place that weight on a part of the car that will improve its balance or lower the centre of gravity, whatever marginal gain is there to be had.

So, if you can design your system to be say 0.25kg heavier and fully functional, you have an advantage over a car that has to add 0.5kg to their car, and have their driver sitting in a slow cooker for two hours.

Educated Guess

We won’t know who will be using the system until Sunday, it is only mandated for the race. I think it is worth some performance, but in advance of the race, you are making an educated guess as to who might have to race without the cooling system.

I would suggest the teams with smaller engineering departments, and maybe one or two macho drivers, but with F1 all about marginal gains, everyone team should be running the cooling systems.

Mercedes may be a step ahead at this point. Give it two years and everyone will be running in most of the races, mandated or not. I suggest that the gains in driver performance will prove big enough to make it as normal a thing to have in the car as a steering wheel.

2025 Singapore GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

It was a very bad weekend for McLaren in Baku. Piastri crashed in qualifying and on race day, he jumped the start, nearly stalled the car, dropped to last place, then crashed out a few corners into the lap.

It was a real chance for Norris to make big inroads to Piastri’s World Championship lead, but he didn’t take it. Norris only qualified in seventh place and due to another botched pit stop, got stuck in traffic and ended up finishing seventh, picking up just six points. Piastri now leads Norris by twenty-five points.

Solid Singapore Record

Will the streets of Singapore suit the McLaren any better than Baku? It is a higher downforce track, which will help, but it is not a ‘perfect’ track for their car. Norris won last year’s race easily from pole, with Piastri in third place. In 2023 Norris was second and Piastri seventh. Norris has always finished in the top seven in his four starts in Singapore.

The track here is ‘rear limited’. It is the rear tyres that take the punishment. It is not a track with much in the way of lateral loadings or high abrasiveness, but it will be hot and thermal degradation is higher. This plays to McLaren’s strengths. This car is excellent at minimising rear tyre wear. Give them a high downforce, rear limited, hot track and they are in their sweet spot.

Mercedes 

Returned to second place in the Constructors’ Championship, thanks to Russell’s second place and Antonelli’s fourth place. Russell finished fourth here last year, his first and only points finish in Singapore. Antonelli has never raced here.

The words bumpy track and hot, are not welcome in the Mercedes garage. They have not been great here with the ground effect cars, with just one third place for Hamilton in 2023. However, they did go better than expected in Baku.

The track resurfacing here in 2024 may have helped a little but this is a track on which they will like the short duration corners, but not the hotter conditions, and we shall just have wait and see how bumpy the track is after a year with ordinary road traffic using it. Their fully functioning cool vests can only be a help.

Ferrari 

Ferrari have tended to go well here. Sainz won the race in 2023 and Leclerc has had two second places. Ferrari have had three of the last four pole positions in Singapore, two for Leclerc, one for Sainz. Only Sainz converted his into a win.

Ferrari have had more pole positions in Singapore than any other team, with a total of seven. They have only managed one pole in 2025 and Ferrari only qualified 9th and 10th here last year after they both failed to set a time in Q3, but they had been quite competitive up to that point. I expect a strong Ferrari this weekend, but I expected them to go well in Baku and…..yeah.

Leclerc doesn’t think the Ferrari will be particularly quick here. Quicker than Mercedes thanks to the heat but he says that repeating his pole in Hungary is ‘unlikely’.

Red Bull 

This is the only track on which Verstappen has never won. He has had three podiums, including a second-place last year, but he was over 20 seconds behind Norris.

It has been a good race for Red Bull and they have only failed to get a car on the podium once, in 2023, but it hasn’t been a great place for Verstappen. His cars often had niggly problems and in recent years it was not good on bumpy surfaces or riding kerbs.

In 2023 Red Bull won every race, bar Singapore. The track was resurfaced for the 2024 race and Verstappen was able to qualify and finish second, albeit a distant one.

Red Bull have won the last two races in 2025, but on two outlier, low downforce tracks. Back on a slower, higher downforce track, we will find out whether the Red Bull really is a car reborn, or just very good on low downforce tracks. This is Verstappen’s bogey track and may well end his run of wins in 2025.

Williams 

Have scored 31 points in the last three races and have given themselves a cushion of 29 points over the Racing Bulls. Williams suffered a drop in competitiveness after the Spanish GP due to others improving, but they have had a few tracks that have suited their car and picked up a decent haul.

It is never plain sailing and they have not had a double points finish for the last nine races, having had five in the first eight. I haven’t had much luck when backing them and it is very easy to pick the wrong driver.

Sainz Has Form Here

Carlos Sainz won from pole here in 2023 and he has finished every race he has raced here, only missing out on the points once. Albon has had two DNFs and just one points finish from four starts. The team have not scored a point here since 2017 but have had a car in 11th place for the last two years. Historically, not a great venue for the team.

Sainz could be the stronger driver this weekend. He has a decent track record and with the lack of any long duration corners he will be more competitive, much like Baku. Another podium scoring weekend is less likely but they could be in the race to be best of the rest.

Racing Bulls 

Liam Lawson raced here in 2022 finishing a creditable 9th. This will be an entirely new venue for Hadjar. The team have scored in seven of the last nine races here. They are on a run of five consecutive points scoring races in 2025 and the two drivers are now driving at a fairly even level. They have enjoyed double points finishes at Monaco and Baku, so another street circuit will have then licking their lips.

Aston Martin 

Singapore has not been a particularly good venue for the Silverstone based outfit. They have failed to score here in three of the last five races. A return to a less straight line speed sensitive track should help them be more competitive than in the last two races.

The higher the speed of a track, the harder it is for Aston Martin, so on a slower street circuit they will be hoping to get maybe one car into the minor points. And that car would more likely be Alonso’s.

Sauber 

Seem have a lost a bit of an edge in recent weeks. Just one top ten finish from their last three races and only four points scored. That after six consecutive points scoring races and forty four points scored.

Hulkenberg’s poor form in qualifying didn’t help, but he has had respectable sessions in the last two GP weekends. The German has had three points scoring races here from his last four Singapore GPs. Can he end a run of five consecutive pointless finishes in 2025?

Maybe it is Bortoleto who is the more likely, but he is making his track debut. The team has only scored one point in the last six Singapore GPs.

Haas 

Their double points finish at Zandvoort was an outlier. Their just got lucky with a fairly desperate strategy. The team have only had three cars home in the points in Singapore and have only scored in one of the last six races in 2025. Struggling.

Alpine 

It should be a bit embarrassing for Alpine to rock up here with Briatore steering the ship. Race fixing should have resulted in a life ban for the Italian, but he managed to win an appeal and has wormed his way back into the worst team on the grid. Hopefully they finish last, and there is a fair chance of that.

Colapinto is the only driver on the grid not to have scored a point in 2025, while Gasly has done well to score twenty points from his four points scoring finishes. He has scored points in three of his five races here. He was sixth here in 2023, but the team have been a fading force since then.

2025 Singapore GP Summary

This isn’t one of my favourite races. The track is OK, it looks great under the lights, but it can be a bit random. It is narrow in places and it can be easy to clip the wall, or worse. A small mistake can be terminal and that can kill a driver’s chances of a good result if it happens in qualifying. We had a good bet on Albon in Baku, the car was spot on, but a mistake in Q1 and that was that.

For that reason, you can reduce risk by betting after qualifying, but as usual, if the odds are good enough, you can have a few ante-posts, but they have to compensate for the added risk.

2025 Singapore GP Race Winner

This looks like a better track for McLaren. Rain would be a worry, but a rear limited track with high downforce characteristics should suit.

Verstappen has won the last two races, but he has never won here and it is a very different track in terms of demands put on the car. We will find out if their Monza upgrade will have the same level of benefit on high downforce tracks as on low downforce.

Ferrari tend to go well here, but they are hard to trust. Plank wear can be an issue here and we know that is a weakness for them. I was considering a bet on Leclerc for pole, but his lack of enthusiasm about his prospects have put a dampener on that for now.

Mercedes tend to be less competitive in hot conditions and they are a watching brief in practice, to see what their potential is.

2025 Singapore GP Ante -Post Selections

It is between Norris and Piastri for me. Norris is 2-0 here and Piastri will be feeling a bit of pressure after a poor weekend in Baku. It seems he is human after all.

2025 Singapore GP Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to win @ 3.00 generally available

In the very competitive midfield, it looks better to hold fire for now, with the exception of one driver.

The car is a good all-rounder, but Racing Bulls’ only two double points finishes came on street tracks. Lawson finished ninth on his debut here two years ago, so he knows what to expect in terms of the conditions. His form has really picked up as he has recovered from getting binned by Red Bull after just two races at the start of the season.

2025 Singapore GP Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to finish in the points @ 2.10 with Betfred

For a more speculative bet I will take yet another risk on Williams. My record of picking the wrong one is spectacular, but surely one has to cop.

As a team they have had six top six finishes in 2025 and Sainz will be feeling much better after a great race in Baku. He is a past winner here and does go well on the track. Hopefully, they don’t screw it up and if the bet loses on merit, fair enough.

2025 Singapore GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish in the top six @ 10.00 with BET365

-JamesPunt