2025 Spanish GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Spanish GP Qualifying preview. You can check out James’ outright preview and tips here.

2025 Spanish GP Qualifying

The free practice has finished and the new technical directive over the flexi wings appears to have made very little difference, much as expected.

The weather has been hot and sunny all weekend so all the cars have had plenty of running and the form should be fairly well sorted. Now it is just a matter of execution.

Team-by Team

This is a track where teammates can quite often line up side by side on the final grid. Obviously, that won’t be the case with mis-matched drivers like Verstappen and Tsunoda, or Alonso and Stroll, but it is an interesting guide as to who is the top dog in each team, and by what margin. This is a car track, so any big differences are down to the drivers.

McLaren

Piastri has been the fastest driver in FP2 and FP3. It was a McLaren 1-2 in the warm up for qualifying but we didn’t get to see what Norris could really do as he went off the track on his flying lap on new softs. His car experienced some porpoising and it bottomed out on a corner entry, throwing him off the track. The car was better after a small adjustment, but his final run was on used tyres.

Piastri was over half a second quicker than Norris and while the real gap is smaller, that is a big gap. Norris’ confidence is paper thin and that might just have put doubts in his head.

Norris and Piastri are 4-4 in qualifying and this one is not an easy call. Both are in the running for pole but I have to give the nod to Piastri, given Norris’ little off earlier.

The best of the rest of the field was three quarters of a second off Piastri’s pace.

Ferrari

Charles Leclerc is a one lap specialist and is 7-1 with Hamilton in qualifying. It is beginning to look alarming for Hamilton. He was second best to Russell at Mercedes last year and while it will take him a season to fully settle at Ferrari, he is getting schooled by Leclerc in qualifying. Ferrari/Leclerc have to find three quarters of a second if they are to challenge McLaren this afternoon. It is very hard to see how they do that.

Mercedes

Russell is another strong qualifier and he was just 0.009s off Leclerc’s time in FP3, but a mile off the McLarens. He is 7-1 with his teammate and has been faster in every session. A second row beckons for Russell, despite track temperatures of around 47 degrees.

Red Bull

You can never write Verstappen off but he needs to find a second on what he did earlier. OK, he was on used tyres and it was a messy lap, but he still looks to be half a second shy. He wasn’t happy with the balance of his car in FP3 and no doubt Red Bull will have found the sweet spot for qualifying. Needless to say, Tsunoda is miles away and will do well to make Q3.

Racing Bulls

Once again Hadjar is the star. Top ten in every session so far and he looks nailed on for his fifth Q3 of the season and his third in a row. Lawson is starting to find his feet and he too has been top 10 in all three sessions. He is marginal for Q3 but I wouldn’t rule him out. Hadjar is 5-1 vs Lawson in qualifying.

Aston Martin

Alonso was eighth in FP3 and looks reasonably comfortable for Q3 for the third race in a row. We are on him to finish in the top six, so hopefully he can max out his position in qualifying. He was just 0.039s off the fifth best time, so there is hope. Stroll is miles back and not looking like he can get out of Q2, but getting out of Q1 is a result for him.

Sauber

Surprisingly good for Sauber so far. Hulkenberg has been twelfth in the last two sessions, but he was bettered by Bortoleto in FP3. The team’s best qualifying position was twelfth for Hulkenberg in China. It will be interesting if they can better that today, but a Q3 spot looks optimistic. Hulkenberg is 5-3 with Bortoleto and maybe the Brazilian can close the gap today.

Williams

James Vowles says that getting one car out of Q1 is the target for qualifying. The car just is not suited to the demands of this track. Albon has had a brake problem which has held him back, but this will be their worst weekend of the year. It is 4-4 between the two drivers in qualifying, but Sainz looks the quicker on home soil.

Alpine

Only sixteenth and seventeenth in FP3. Gasly had been top 10 in both sessions yesterday but they have tended to get slower as the weekend goes on. At least Colapinto wasn’t last.

Haas

Both cars in the bottom three and Bearman last of all today. Given how unpredictable they are I wouldn’t rule out one getting into Q3 and the other be last.

2025 Spanish GP Qualifying Selections

I have a great record of picking the second quickest qualifier in 2025, but that doesn’t pay the bills.

It does look like this is between the two McLarens. Yes, they have often looked dominant only to get pegged back in qualifying, but they have had five of the eight poles so far in 2025. The gap will be smaller than it was in FP3, but can any of the other teams really close the chasm? It is not just a couple of tenths but nearer a full second.

McLaren are running with a little less wing this weekend and are the fastest on the straights, which is not their usual set up and it seems to have produced a lot more speed, but will it cost a bit more tyre degradation tomorrow?

I shall curse Piastri today.

2025 Spanish GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.00 with SpreadEx

Match betting wise there some interesting options, but not any huge value.

Down at Haas, it is Ocon who is 5-2 up on Bearman and he has been quicker in four of the last five qualifying sessions. He has been marginally quicker in his two sessions this weekend (he sat out FP1).

2025 Spanish GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to out qualify Ollie Bearman @ 1.70 with Livescorebet

At Sauber, I will take a chance on Bortoleto to out qualify Hulkenberg. The young Brazilian has done just that in two of the last three qualifying sessions and he may be starting to find his feet in F1. This is a track he knows well and he was faster in FP3, by a whisker.

2025 Spanish GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Bortoleto to out qualify Hulkenberg @ 2.45 with Livescorebet

Outside of the teammate vs. teammate match ups, I like the chances of Russell to out qualify Charles Leclerc. He is 6-2 up in 2025 and while they were very close earlier, this has been a much better track for Mercedes than Ferrari in recent years.

2025 Spanish GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to out qualify Charles Leclerc @ 1.67 with Livescorebet

-JamesPunt