2025 Spanish GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Spanish GP Raceday preview. He fired in three winners from four bets in Qualifying. The nightmare is finally over!

2025 Spanish GP Raceday

Much like Monaco, the real business is likely to have been done yesterday, but there will be some racing and more action, and two pitstops. It will be worth watching, especially the start.

The Barcelona circuit features a very long run down the straight into a right, left, right combination of corners. There is an opportunity for the cars in second, third and maybe fourth, to get a good slip stream down the straight and then having a dive up the inside, or a go around the outside, which then becomes the inside line for turn two.

Start Crucial

Last year we saw Norris on pole, but he tried to cover Verstappen on the inside, which allowed Russell to come from fourth to pass both on the outside, and Verstappen overtook Norris on the inside after Norris reacted to Russell’s move. It was a classic Norris duff start, but it is a hard pole to cover.

Perhaps this is one reason why the team are running the car with less wing this weekend. They need good straight line speed to be able to get to the corner first. After that most of the overtaking is done at the end of the long straight under DRS. Verstappen won last year’s race, but he didn’t have the quickest car. That should be a warning for McLaren today.

Hardest Compounds

Pirelli’s three tyre compounds are the three hardest compounds in the range, but nobody has been able to make the hard tyre work and we will see a mix of medium and soft tyres used today. They are not expected to be durable enough to make a one stop race feasible, so we can expect a two stop race for most. I guess that somebody will try the hard tyre, just in case it does work as the rubber has gone down over the weekend.

There will be no Lance Stroll in today’s race. He has withdrawn due to suffering with pain in his hands and wrists. That is a legacy for a bike accident he had a year or two ago. Why it has suddenly become a problem I do not know, but it does open up a feasible exit strategy for a driver who has to go if Aston Martin are to become a serious team. He can’t get sacked, he is the owner’s son after all, but he could retire due to ‘injury’, sparing everyone’s blushes.

2025 Spanish GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Their first front row lock out in 27 years at Barcelona. They have the best car and that is what matters on this circuit. Their biggest problem is exactly what happened to Norris last year. Getting beaten into the first corner and not fully recovering.

We saw at Imola that Verstappen was able to dominate once he jumped Piastri at the first corner. Clean air is king, but on this track, managing the tyres will be vital and that is where McLaren have been the class of the field.

Red Bull 

Just not quick enough, but Verstappen won in a slower car here last year. It will be harder this year as he has both McLarens to deal with. He will try to win but is realistically targeting a podium. He will be fun to watch in the first few corners. Tsunoda starts in last place as his F1 career is crushed by Verstappen.

Mercedes 

Nowhere when it’s hot. I am not so sure. Russell finished on the podium in Miami and that was hotter than we have had this weekend. We are using the hardest compound this weekend which also helps. Mercedes know how to get the job done here and Russell managed to finish fourth last year, from where he started, and last year’s car was just as temperature sensitive.

Antonelli starts sixth but he may struggle to keep Leclerc behind him. He had to burn an extra set of softs in qualifying so his strategy will be sub optimal.

The team have worked hard on their long run pace in anticipation of today’s conditions.

Ferrari 

Leclerc was out qualified by Hamilton yesterday, but that was largely down to him only doing one run in Q3 as he looked to save some new soft tyres for today. He sacrificed grid position for a better race strategy. Ferrari usually show good race pace and they are not out of the podium battle. Hamilton may be hampered by having used an extra set of softs in qualifying.

Alpine 

I didn’t expect Gasly to be up in the top ten. He has struggled to make up any ground in the races and staying in the points may be asking too much. Colapinto had a problem in qualifying and had to retire from the Q1 session.

Racing Bulls 

Hadjar will probably be disappointed to only qualify in ninth place, but it is a fair refection of where the car is, and this is a car circuit. Another points finish beckons but ninth may be his limit. Lawson starts from thirteenth.

Aston Martin 

Alonso only had the one set of new softs for qualifying and opted to go out mid-session when the track was empty. He got a good lap in clean air, but he didn’t get any tow and the track may not have been at is fastest. He was fifth when he set his time, but the rest of the field set better times latter in the session. It looks like another tactical blunder. We are on him for a top 6 finish, he is just hoping to score a point. The latter looks likely, the former, optimistic.

Williams 

To get one car out of Q1 was the target and they did that. Albon qualifying in eleventh was a surprise. The car is not all suited to this track. It is always a bit of a bogey for them and is as bad this year as ever.

Sainz wasn’t able to get out of Q1. It will be hard for Albon to make any progress but he knows how to make his car wide and you do not want to get stuck behind him. He will be hoping for some attrition ahead of him and maybe luck into a point.

Sauber 

A great effort from Bortoleto to qualify in twelfth. They have some new upgrades on the car this weekend which have worked. Whether it helps the car in traffic remains to be seen. Their race pace has been a real problem for them so far, especially through the long sweeping corners here.

Haas 

Fifteenth and seventeenth is a bit disappointing, but who knows what to expect from Haas? That they go better in the races is one thing we do know but they have not looked particularly good this weekend, so far.

They burned through a lot of tyres for Bearman to get into Q2 and that may compromise his race. He did say that had he any new tyres in Q2, he was on for Q3, so maybe there is some pace for the race.

2025 Spanish GP Raceday Summary

When looking for the race winner today, we should only be looking at the two McLarens. Only three drivers have won here that didn’t start on the front row. One of them was Max Verstappen, but that was the race where Hamilton and Rosberg started 1-2 but crashed out on lap 1.

Nobody has ever won from further back than fifth on the grid. Of the thirty four races held here, 70.6% have been won from pole position and 20.6% from second place. In the turbo Hybrid era, the pole win rate drops to 64% and the 2nd place win rate rises to 27%.

Piastri has only had three pole positions, all in 2025 and he has converted two into wins. He dropped from pole to finish third at Imola having left a bit too much room in the first corner and letting Verstappen through.

Attack Mode For Max

Both McLaren drivers have been mugged by Verstappen at race starts, and you can be sure that Max will be in attack mode for the first corner. He knows that if he is to win, he must take an early lead, and even then, he would be fighting two quicker cars.

We have to think that there could be a crash at the start today. Verstappen will be super aggressive in the first corner. He knows he has bettered both McLaren drivers in that department and if he is to win, that is his best (and only) chance.

Norris will just get out of his way. It is a pragmatic approach and he might be able to get the place back via pit stops. Piastri might be a different proposition. He will have been annoyed to have been jumped at Imola and he will not want that to happen again, but what do to?

Russell will be alert to an opportunity, as he was last year, of taking the lead from fourth place. Ultimately, he dropped back to fourth place, and his battle is for a podium finish today. He has had four from eight in 2025 so far and has had two in the last three years here.

Past form says that Piastri is a 1.42 chance to win this race form pole, but we can back him at 1.70, which on this track, is generous. It is odds on but still qualifies as a value bet.

2025 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Oscar Piastri to win @ 1.70 with Livescorebet (1.85 on Betfair exchange)

The podium betting is interesting. It would appear to be between the two McLarens, obviously, Verstappen (1.44), Russell (4.50) and maybe Hamilton (5.50). So far in 2025 Verstappen has scored four, Russell also four and Hamilton nil.

Hamilton has only started fifth or better twice in 2025, China and Monaco, where he finished fifth and fourth respectively. Russell has started fourth or fifth three times and converted two into podium finishes, including at the very hot Miami. Verstappen has only started from third once in 2025 and he finished second.

Verstappen deserves to be the shortest of those three and he has finished on the podium for the last seven years here.

Russell has finished 3/3/4 here for Mercedes and that team have only failed to have a least one driver on the podium once in the turbo hybrid era, and that was the year when Hamilton and Rosberg crashed. The driver starting fourth has finished on the podium four times in the turbo hybrid era (36.4%) or a 2.75 chance.

Of course, if one or both McLarens have a problem or crash, then it is likely that both Verstappen and Russell can finish on the podium. It will likely go down as a good value loser, but Russell’s odds are too big.

2025 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to finish on the podium @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

We have backed Alonso for a top six finish and he needed to qualifying better than he did, but you never know. It has only happened once in the last ten years. Alonso to finish in the points is a 1.85 shot. He has no faster cars behind him which helps, but he is the unluckiest driver in the world.

2025 Spanish GP Raceday Match Bets

There are a lot of tempting match bets, but I will try and pick the best.

Hamilton has only started ahead of Leclerc once this season and that was in China, but it was Leclerc who finished ahead. Today Hamilton starts two places ahead of Leclerc, but Leclerc sacrificed qualifying for a better race strategy today. He is 7-1 with Hamilton in 2025. If Leclerc has picked the better strategy he may well improve on that.

2025 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to beat Lewis Hamilton @ 2.00 with Betfred

Bortoleto got his best qualifying position of the season yesterday. How much was down to the upgrades, or how much with track familiarity is hard to say, but the upgrades have improved the car’s pace. The question now is, has it improved the cars dire race pace?

It was very nervous in dirty air and the Saubers have tended to lose ground in the races. Over at Haas, those unpredictable beasts, their tendency has to be better over a race distance, by some margin. Bearman’s average improvement from qualifying to finishing position is +4.6 places.

It is a bet that requires the Sauber to still have backward tendencies, but with no Stroll in the race, Bearman now starts a little closer to Bortoleto and well within his improvement range.

2025 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Bearman to bet Bortoleto @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt