2025 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter

In the 2024 Stayers’ Hurdle Teahupoo delivered for the stats at 2/1 and he is back to defend his crown. Our 50/1 e/w bet Buddy One just missed a place in fourth, hopefully we can find another one to go well at a price in this year’s renewal. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2025 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter preview below.

Age

Sire Du Berlais bucked this trend in 2023 but by and large, the Stayers’ Hurdle has been a race where horses aged between 6yo and 8yo come to the fore. Since 1990 only four winners have come from outside that age bracket so that’s where we’ll begin.

This stat enables us to narrow the 30 runner field considerably. Unfortunately, Declan Queally’s exciting prospect Rocky’s Diamond (who I fancy to run a big race) falls foul of this statistic as he is only a 5yo. He’s the only horse younger than 6yo who holds an entry, but there’s quite a few old boys who come a cropper at this stage.

The highest profile horse that can’t win, according to the stats, is the 9yo Home By The Lee. Gowel Road and Langer Dan, who has been entered in the Coral Cup again, also get the chop here, as does the 10yo Bob Olinger. Most of the other horses cut here are outsiders, we’ll try to narrow the field further by using course form next. 

Cut: Rocky’s Diamond; Winter Fog; Asterion Forlonge; Home By The Lee; Hewick; Bob Olinger; Maximilian; Langer Dan; Gowel Road; Goshen; Ga Law; Botox Has.

Course Form

Twelve down, eighteen still standing. Since 2009, all but one of the Stayers’ Hurdle winners had at least one previous run at the track under their belt. The undulations and stiff uphill finish take a bit of getting used to and quite a few of the remaining contenders do not tick this box. For the purposes of this piece, we’ll discount any horses that lack course form and also those that have run here over hurdles and failed to place or win.

That means we have to say goodbye to July Flower, though she will surely run in the mares’ hurdle. Jetara ran poorly on her only previous visit to Prestbury Park, as did Maxxum. Franciscan Rock ran well in the Coral Cup last year, but not well enough to defy this stat as he only finished fifth.

Strong Leader did run well here in a bumper before but he finished unplaced in four runs over timber since so he is another one to fall by the wayside. Nemean Lion, Hiddenvalley Lake and Crambo are the other horses that fail to progress past this stage.

Cut: July Flower; Jetara; Maxxum; Franciscan Rock; Strong Leader; Nemean Lion; Hiddenvalley Lake; Crambo.

Graded Wins

Of the last twelve winners of this race, nine of them had previously won at either Grade 1 or Grade 2 level and for this piece, we are only counting form over hurdles. Sandor Clegane has plenty of creditable efforts in Grade 1s and Grade 2s in the bank but he’s never won one so he is discounted here, as is last year’s fourth Buddy One.

The Wallpark is fancied to go well by some shrewd judges but he finished fourth in his only Grade 1 start at Ascot so we’ll be putting a line through him too.

Cut: Sandor Clegane; Buddy One; The Wallpark.

Winning Form

We are really making inroads now. Only seven horses remain in contention for the 2025 Stayers’ Hurdle and the final cut looms. Looking back at every winner of this race since 2000, they all had won at least three races over hurdles before landing this prize, bar Lisnagar Oscar who won at 50/1 in 2020.

Minella Missile has won just twice before over hurdles so he gets the chop here, as does last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Stellar Story who has also just won two races over timber. That leaves us with a final five, we’ll try to sort them out below.

Cut: Minella Missile; Stellar Story.

The Final Five

Teahupoo backers can now relax. The ante-post favourite makes it to the final five and while he lacks a recent run, he had an identical preparation last year and it didn’t stop him from winning this by over six lengths. He might be hard to stop again, though if the ground were to come up good to soft or quicker he might be worth taking on.

The lack of depth in this division is illustrated by the fact that a horse that has never even raced over 3m is just a 10/1 shot. Lucky Place, fourth in last year’s Coral Cup, has won both starts this season, including a 20.5f Grade 2 here on his last outing. However, he has yet to tackle further than 2m5f and while there is every chance he will see it out, you simply don’t know for sure until he actually goes and does it.

Bigger Odds

The other three survivors are bigger odds. The French raider Gold Tweet finished well beaten in this race in 2023 after being supplemented but he has lost his form somewhat over fences and he is also entered in the Coral Cup and the Ultima, so he may not even run.

Mystical Power was a top class novice, his sole defeat coming in the Supreme last March. He’s hard to fancy on what he’s done this season though. Not only is he unraced over further than 16.5f, he has been beaten a combined distance of 111 lengths in his two runs so far this season so the massive step up in trip needs to spark a revival.

Cleeve Hurdle Form

That leaves us with Monmiral. He has rebounded well after suffering a heavy defeat on his seasonal return at Newbury. He subsequently chased home Strong Leader in a Newbury Grade 2 and then he warmed up for a crack at this with a fine effort behind Gowel Road in the Cleeve Hurdle here last month.

Paul Nicholls also has this lad entered in the Pertemps, a race he won last year, but he’s much higher in the weights now and he said he is leaning towards running in this race. Hopefully he does, because Monmiral ticks an awful lot of boxes and if he does take his chance, the stats say he might be able to sneak into the money. At odds of 33/1 with NRNB available, he is worth taking a chance on e/w.

2025 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter: The Verdict

1 Teahupoo @ 11/10

2 Monmiral @ 33/1 (back e/w NRNB)

3 Lucky Place @ 10/1

-DaveStevos

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