2025 Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview

The Conference Championships were a mixed bag. None of our prop bets landed in the Eagles vs Commanders matchup, but we landed all three of our prop wagers in the Chiefs v Bills game. Jan Keys announced his retirement earlier this week, he is hoping to finish on a high in the biggest game of all. Check out his 2025 Super Bowl LIX betting preview and picks below.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS vs PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Venue: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans.

Vegas Line: Kansas City -1; Total Points 48.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Philadelphia -6.4; Total Points 43.6

Player Prop Lines: Over/Under Yards

Passing Yards QB: Patrick Mahomes 256.5; Jalen Hurts 214.5

QB Passing Attempts: P Mahomes 35.5; J Hurts 27.5

QB Passing Completions: P Mahomes 23.5; J Hurts 18.5

rushing Yards (KC): Kareem Hunt 45.5; Patrick Mahomes 30.5; Isiah Pachero 22.5; Xavier Worthy 5.5

rushing Yards (Phil) Saquon Barkley 111.5; Jalen Hurts 38.5

Receiving Yards (KC) Travis Kelce 61.5; Xavier Worthy 56.5; Marquise (Hollywood) Brown 42.5; Juju Smith Schuster 15.5; Noah Gray 11.5; DeAndre Hopkins 11.5

Receiving Yards (Phil) AJ Brown 70.5; DeVonta Smith 51.5; Dallas Goedert 51.5; Saquon Barkley 11.5

The Road to 2025 Super Bowl LIX

Super Bowl 59 is a repeat of Super Bowl 57 and the Kansas City Chiefs are going for their third win in a row. It will be an amazing achievement if Kansas City complete the hat-trick. My ratings have been against the Chiefs for most of the season, they haven’t been the best team by a long way, but they do have that crucial habit of just winning matches.

Kansas City Play Off Games

AFC Divisional Play Off – Kansas City Chiefs 23 Houston Texans 14

This was a match that Houston felt aggrieved to lose, they played well with better yardage than the Chiefs and held Kansas to only 50 yards rushing, although this is a distorted number due to a minus 26 yards play.

Mahomes was 16/25 for 177 yards through the air. He also rushed for 14 yards. Kareem Hunt had 8 carries for 44 yards and Isiah Pachero had 5 carries for 18 yards. There was a star performance from Travis Kelce who had 7 receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown. Xavier Worthy had 5 receptions for 45 yards but there wasn’t much else for the Chiefs to shout about.

AFC Championship – Kansas City Chiefs 32 Buffalo Bills 29

It was Buffalo’s turn to feel aggrieved, just like Houston the week before. Some big decisions didn’t go their way. It was a close match with both teams producing similar numbers. The Chiefs’ rushing game improved slightly but they still only gained 135 yards on the ground (Kareem Hunt 64, Patrick Mahomes 43, Xavier Worthy 16, Isiah Pachero 12).

On the Receiving side, Worthy was 6-85 Smith-Schuster 2-60 Hollywood Brown 3-35 Travis Kelce 2-19. Home advantage played a big part in Kansas City making the final.

Philadelphia Eagles Play Off Games

NFC Divisional Play Off – Philadelphia Eagles 28 L.A. Rams 22

This match was played in the snow and the L.A. Rams played well and outscored the Eagles in yardage 402 – 350. Jalen Hurts was 15/20 for 128 yards and was sacked seven times.

The Eagles’ star RB Saquon Barkley had 26 carries for 205 yards and two touchdowns and Jalen Hurts also rushed for 70 yards. On the Receiving side, Dallas Goedert was 4-56, Saquon Barkley 4-27, Devonta Smith 4-21 and AJ Brown 2-14.

NFC Championship – Philadelphia Eagles 55 Washington Commanders 23

The result suggests this was an easy win for the Eagles but that was not the case. Washington were still in with a chance until the fourth quarter but again, a couple of decisions went the way of Philadelphia and they drew clear.

Both Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley scored three rushing touchdowns. Jalen Hurts match figures were 20/28 for 246 and he took just two sacks this time.

Saquon Barkley remained the star rusher with 15 carries for 118 yards and this would have been more if he wasn’t rested towards the end of the match. Jalen Hurts had 10 carries for just 16 yards. Philadelphia’s best receivers were AJ Brown 6-96, Dallas Goedert 7-85 and DeVonta Smith 4-45.

2025 SUPER BOWL LIX Betting Preview

My ratings suggest that Philadelphia are the better team, so I will be tipping the Eagles to win the match.

The two finalists have different approaches to how they will try to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City seem to struggle with their rushing game. Kareem Hunt is their main rusher but rarely hits high numbers. QB Patrick Mahomes usually performs well in the rushing department to keep the momentum going and Pacheco and Worthy will also rush for a few yards.

Of Mahomes receivers’, TE Travis Kelce is the most famous and will probably be the go to guy. He only had 2 receptions in the Championship match for 19 but he is usually a man that rises to the big occasions and he’ll be keen to impress Taylor Swift in the stands. Kansas have quite a few active receivers so I expect Mahomes to mix it up in that department.

Special Saquon

Philadelphia have a special weapon in running back Saquon Barkley. He and Jalen Hurts will lead a two pronged rushing attack on the Chiefs.

The Eagles don’t use as many receivers as the Chiefs but AJ Brown will need to have a big night, along with Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith. Another key reason why the Eagles are favoured is that their defense is ranked No.1, whereas Kansas are only ranked 9th.

All things considered, the Eagles have to be worth backing with a one point head start.

2025 Super Bowl LIX betting pick: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +1 POINT

Super Bowl LIX Prop Picks

The key to making a profit in the player prop markets is to shop around. There are many books with a couple of yards difference and this can make all the difference between winning and losing.

Patrick Mahomes played in 18 matches this season and as a quarterback, not much changes in your habits. Here is a list of this season’s Mahomes’ rush numbers: 3, 29, 17, 12, 22, 39, 17, 9, 19, 0, 60, 4, 17, 14, 33, 12, 14, 43.

He has gone Over four Times and Under fourteen times, so a bet on the under is the logical play.

2025 Super Bowl LIX Betting Pick: PATRICK MAHOMES Under 30.5 YARDS RUSHING

The most popular call will be Travis Kelce’s receiving yards. The line is set at around 61.5 Yards with most firms and this is how his numbers stack up this season:

34, 5, 30, 89, 70, 17, 90, 100, 64, 8, 62, 68, 45, 27, 30, 84, 117, 19.

He has gone Over 9 Times and Under 9 times. A couple of points to note: in the first three matches star receiver Rashee Rice played, thus making Kelce numbers lower in those three games; the second, and perhaps most important, point is that Philadelphia are the NFL’s best defense. These cancel each other out, so I think the line is pitched correctly.

We’Re Not worthy

This is one that might not jump out at you straight away as Worthy has some good numbers to his game. When he played against Buffalo in early November the line was set at 22.5 Over/Under and over the weeks it has moved up through the 30s, and in the last 3 matches to Over/Under 51.5. For this match, the Worthy receiving yards line moves up another 5 yards to 56.5, the highest the line has been all season.

This season’s numbers for Worthy are: 47, 17, 17, 73, 25, 19, 37, 0, 11, 61, 46, 54, 41, 46, 65, 79,45, 85. He has gone Over 5 times and Under 13 times. Admittedly, he is receiving the ball more lately but he is up against the top defense in the NFL here yet his line has never been higher. Back the under.

2025 Super Bowl LIX betting pick: XAVIER WORTHY Under 56.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Along with Derrick Henry of Baltimore, Saquon Barkley has been the best rusher in the NFL and he is consistently rushing for big Yardage.

In the Conference Final he rushed for 118 yards before being taken off and rested for the Final. His understudy Will Shipley came on in the fourth quarter and rushed for 77 yards, so this figure would almost certainly have been higher had he played the full match.

Barkley’s rushing numbers this season: 109, 95, 147, 84, 47, 176, 108, 159, 66, 146, 255, 107, 124, 45, 150, 167, 119, 205, 118. He has gone Over 11 Times and Under 8 Times. Most notably is that he has gone over today’s line in his last five matches and I think he can do so again.

2025 Super Bowl LIX betting Pick: SAQUON BARKLEY Over 111.5 YARDS RUSHING

Dallas Goedert was the go to guy last week and he had 7 carries for 85 yards so he is in form. So, why am I selecting Under yards for him you may ask?

The lines for Goedert’s last 3 matches were 35.5 against Green Bay, 36.5 against L.A. Rams and 37.5 against Washington. The Super Bowl line has jumped considerably to 51.5 and this is the main reason I’m going with the Unders.

Dallas Goedert’s Season Receiving Yards: 31, 38, 170, 62, 0, DNP, DNP, DNP, 25, 61, 19, 35, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP, 55,47, 56, 85. He has gone Over 6 Times and Under 7 Times.

2025 Super Bowl LIX betting pick: DALLAS GOEDERT Under 51.5 YARDS RECEIVING

There are many prop markets for the Super Bowl and probably many mistakes to find. If you do your homework, hopefully you can find some gems.

Make sure to keep an eye on our twitter feed for NFL and NCAAF market movers.

-JanKeys