2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Preview – JP
2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon preview. Saturday night saw James land two more winners to keep things ticking over, hopefully he can find a few more value wagers this afternoon.
Saturday Night Recap
Rob Cross’ exit means we have come up dry on the outright selections. He started the match like a train, went 4-0 up but just as Alan Soutar did against Clayton, the wheels then fell off and he lost 6-10. You need a bit of luck with the draw in the FA Cup of darts and we didn’t get any.
This will be my last session for the UK Open. Next week there will be the usual Premier League preview and also coverage of the first Euro Tour event of the season, the Belgian Darts Open.
Gian Van Veen vs. Luke Littler
Littler did get pushed quite close by Krzysztof Ratajski last night, but he got there in the end, winning 10-8. I think it is worth noting when Littler plays slower paced opponents, as he does seem to struggle a bit with them.
The pace of play should not be a problem for Littler this afternoon, but being first up might be. He says he is ‘not a morning person’ and starting his match at 13.15 means him having to get up mid-morning so he can eat and get some practice in. Hardly a great deprivation, but players can be a bit funny about when the play and the early starts are never popular.
In Form Van Veen
Gian van Veen, the World Youth Champion, played his best stuff last night. He beat Damon Heta 10-9, averaging 110 to Heta’s 99. Remarkably, in nineteen legs of darts, they only missed four doubles between them. MVG missed more than that in the first leg of his defeat by Robert Owen.
That is what Van Veen can do, and when he starts doing it on a regular basis, he will join the elite. The big question here is, how will he follow that performance up? It is always difficult for sports people to follow a great performance up with another one. That is what separates the good from the greats.
Littler didn’t average over a ton last night. It was ‘only’ 97.99. We have to consider that to be his B game as he hits ton plus averages as a matter of course. In his last 50 matches, Littler has hit 36 ton plus averages. Ridiculous.
Ton Plus Averages
Van Veen’s tournament average is just over 101, but Littler is going at close to 104. Still, that is close enough to think we can have a proper match.
Their H2H record is 2-1 to Littler and all were played at youth level, including the 2024 World Youth Championship, which Littler won 6-4. Their other two matches were on the Development Tour and both ended 5-4. All close affairs. This match is first to ten legs, but hopefully we get another close, entertaining match.
Littler is the 1.29 favourite, Van Veen 4.33. If, and it is the usual big if, Van Veen can keep playing as he has so far this weekend, we should have a close match, maybe even a surprise.
2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Tip: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 2.25 with Betfair
2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Tip: 1 point Gian van Veen to win +3.5 legs @ 1.95 with Boylesports
Nathan Aspinall vs. Josh Rock
Aspinall beat O’Connor 10-8 last night and in the end, the Irishman couldn’t keep his standard of his previous three matches up. Aspinall averaged 98.6, his best of the tournament so far, so he may be timing his run nicely. He also has not had much coming back at him. His opponents’ three dart average has been just 90.64. He can expect to face more firepower coming at him this afternoon.
Rock looked in trouble when 0-4 down to Rob Cross, but he was able to get back into the match and sprinted to the finish line to win very easily in the end. Rock is averaging 100.33 across his three matches so far and he has had to play better than Aspinall so far.
Interesting H2H
Their H2H record is interesting. Josh Rock is 3-0 against Aspinall, which makes him his losing most opponent.
Both players were hitting a lot of 180s yesterday, Rock hit 15 at a rate of 0.43 per leg, Aspinall 12 at 0.40 per leg. Both well above their 12 monthly rates.
Josh Rock is the 1.73 favourite, Aspinall is 2.38 to break his duck against the Ulsterman. Rock has only played in one major quarter final before, losing at that stage at the Grand Slam in 2023. Aspinall has a lot more big match experience and, of course, won his title in 2019. The Asp has lost his two quarter finals in 2025.
2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Tip: 1 point Josh Rock to win @ 1.73 with Betfred
2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Tip: 1 point over 11.5 180s @ 1.91 generally available
Jonny Clayton vs. Michael Smith
I didn’t have Michael Smith reaching the quarter finals on the back of losing nine of his previous ten matches coming into this event. But here he is, averaging just 93.33, in a quarter final. To be fair, his tournament average was skewed by that weird match last night.
Smith beat Van den Bergh 10-3 and he only averaged 89.94, but Dimitri only managed 70.90, in what was one of the worst performances I have ever seen in a Major Championship. I thought there was something wrong with the scoreboard as both players were averaging in the 70s for the first session.
Smith eventually pulled his finger out and motored home. It was such a poor performance by Van den Bergh that Smith was being dragged down with him. I would ay that Smiths two 95 averages is a fairer reflection of where he is.
Consistent Ferret
Jonny Clayton was a little lucky that Alan Soutar threw away a 5-0 lead in their fifth round match but he has played very consistently so far, all his averages in the upper 90s and his TA is 97.58.
Smith is playing well enough to make a match of this, but Clayton has to be the favourite. The market has him at 1.67 and Smith 2.30.
Their H2H record is 18-14 to Smith, on TV 12-8, but Clayton has won their last three matches, all in 2024.
Clayton has been the better player so far and while it is hard to get a grip on Smith ‘s form, I’ll take the Welshman to get through and to cover the 1.5 leg handicap.
2025 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Tip: 1 point Jonny Clayton to win -1.5 legs @ 1.95 with Ladbrokes
James Wade vs. Luke Humphries
Luke Humphries is the shortest priced favourite of the afternoon at just 1.20, and it was hard to argue with that. He is in top form, averaging 101.41 and only dropped two legs in his two matches yesterday.
He beat Searle and Joyce, two very good players, and just bulldozed them out of the way. Humphries doesn’t hit as many huge averages as Littler, but he wins more matches and his win rate in 2025 is 83%. That is top class.
James Wade is averaging 93.58 and came through two close matches yesterday, beating Menzies 10-9 and Robert Owen 10-8. All very James Wade, but now he faces one of the big beasts, and his good finishing is unlikely to be enough to match the sheer firepower of Humphries.
H2H
Their H2H record is 12-6 to Humphries. Wade won their last match, a 5-3 win in last year’s Grand Slam. On TV it is just 4-3 to Humphries. More telling is that Humphries has won nine of their last eleven matches.
They played the 2021 final here, which was Humphries’ first major final, and Wade won that 11-5. Humphries has come a long way since then, including winning seven majors and becoming the World’s number 1 player.
It is hard to find any value in these kind of matches. Humphries is only 2.10 giving up a -4.5 leg handicap, and I am happy to sit this one out.
