2025 US GP outright Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 US GP outright betting preview. We landed a small profit in Singapore, hopefully we do even better this weekend.

2025 US GP

The Singapore GP produced a small 1.82 point profit, despite having eight losing bets. That makes the YTD tally -2.13 points.We now move on to The United States Grand Prix from the Circuit of the Americas (COTA), in Austin, Texas.

The 2025 US GP Circuit

Another purpose-built, Herman Tilke design. COTA is inspired by taking elements of other F1 tracks and combining them to make a hybrid layout. It actually works quite well, but it does have problems with track limits. The track surface is prone to subsidence and can be quite bumpy as a result.

It is a long lap at 5.51 km, features 20 corners, a fast section of left right curves much like the Maggots- Becketts section of Silverstone or the Suzuka esses, leading into a tight hairpin and a slow twisty final sector much like the stadium sector of Hockenheim. It is a medium high downforce track.

Overtaking is possible but challenging. Collisions are not uncommon at the first, uphill sharp left corner, or into the hairpin or indeed any of the heavy braking, tight corner moments. It does produce reasonably entertaining races.

Last Ten Races

Of the last ten races here, the pole sitter has won just four. The driver starting second has also scored four wins but in the last two years, it has been won from sixth and fourth respectively.

The average attrition rate in the last ten races is 3.50, but 2024 saw just one, the lowest ever. There is plenty of run-off room around the track so mistakes can go unpunished, but the first corner does tend to see some contact, especially on lap one.

The first race here was in 2012, which was won by Lewis Hamilton. The Turbo-Hybrid era saw Mercedes dominate, winning four in a row from 2014 to 2017, before Kimi Raikkonen won for Ferrari in 2018. Bottas won for Mercedes in 2019. There was no 2020 race and it was Red Bull and Max Verstappen who won three in a row from 2021 to 2023. Charles Leclerc won for Ferrari last year.

The 2025 US GP Weather Forecast

All three days are set to be hot with the temperatures in the low 30s. Friday morning’s practice has a slight chance of showers but for Sprint qualifying it should be 33 degrees and dry. On Saturday, the Sprint race will see air temperatures of 32 degrees with a minimal chance of a shower. For the GP qualifying it will be hot and dry and much the same on race day.

Tyres

Pirelli are bringing a non-consecutive range of compounds. The C1, C3 and C4. The aim is to make it more likely that we see a range of different race strategies.

The combination of high track temperatures, and some fast corners, means lateral stress is above average. There are seven slow speed corners which lead into high traction exits which require good grip. The asphalt is not overly abrasive but with the heat, the tyres are going to need looking after.

2025 US GP: Team-by-Team Outlook

McLaren

Got over the finish line in the Constructors’ Championship in Singapore to win back to back championships, but where has their pace gone? Three races without a pole position or a win. They are being made to look second, or third, best to Red Bull and Mercedes. Are they just coasting to the end of the season and hoping that one of their drivers can hang on and win the title?

There are six races to go and Piastri leads Norris by 22 points and Verstappen by 63 points. The gap is closeable and we do have three sprint races to add into the points mix, one of which is this weekend. With Max in the ascendancy, McLaren cannot afford to have any DNFs otherwise it is all going to get very nervy.

Average Track Record

McLaren’s record at COTA is not great. The team won the first race here, and that remains their only win, with Hamilton at the wheel, but the two current drivers have not fared so well. Piastri is R/5 and Norris 7/8/6/2/4. Norris was third on the road last year but got a penalty for a bit of argy bargy with Max. He did start from pole, McLaren’s first one here.

The nerves are growing, not just between Piastri and Norris, but McLaren and Verstappen. You could see how reluctant Norris was to attack Verstappen in Singapore. He was in the faster car at the end of the race but wouldn’t risk having a go at overtaking.

Battle Heating Up

With the Constructors’ title in the bag, I expect the battle between the two drivers to get hot. Piastri was not happy at having to swap places in Italy, and he was not happy with being hit by Norris at the start of the Singapore GP. In my view, it was a racing incident and not uncommon on the first lap of any race. But if the Aussie feels aggrieved, he will take things into his own hands. No quarter will be given, even if asked for. It is now a straight fight to the finish.

Piastri is in the box seat but he is getting a bit toey, as the Aussies might say.

Mercedes

Their pace in Singapore was a bit of a headscratcher, even for the team to understand, but Russell got pole and controlled the race with ease. That is a second place and a win for him in the last two races, and Antonelli has had back-to-back fourth and fifth places. They expected McLaren to dominate in Singapore but it was they who won from pole.

This is a track where Mercedes used to go well, but they have not had a win since 2019. Russell’s best finish has been two fifth places and Hamilton had a DNF in 2024 and was disqualified in 2023 having finished second for the previous four years. They are not in the bin with their COTA form, but a bumpy track is supposed to be a weakness, but it wasn’t in Singapore. They have to enter calculations.

Hot And Sunny

The fact that is going to be hot, sunny and hot really should push them into a discomfort zone. Some of the corners, like the esses may not suit, but there are also a number of short duration corners which will suit.

This looks like a track that has more negatives than positives for Mercedes, but they defied everyone’s predictions in Singapore. I can’t see a win this weekend but something in the top six is realistic. Russell has finished 5/5/6 in the last three GPs here. Antonelli makes his track debut.

Ferrari

Another team who seem to have lost their way. Hamilton talks of progress and feeling more comfortable in the car but there is very little in the results to back that up. They are now twenty-seven points behind Mercedes having lead them by twenty-four after Hungary.

Hamilton suffered brake failure in Singapore and I have to wonder if that was connected to the work that Ferrari’s brake supplier, Brembo, has been doing on Hamilton’s brakes.

Hamilton has always used Carbon Industries brakes and the two manufacturers produce two very different systems. They both stop the cars well, but the Carbon Industries system is said to be a more grabby feeling with brakes being very sharp and producing a feeling which suits late brakers like Hamilton.

The Brembo’s are more linear, coming in more gradually. This has led to Hamilton struggling with his braking points. Brembo have been trying to find a compromise. Or it could have been one of those things on a track were the brakes take a lot of punishment.

More To Worry About

However, there is more to worry about at Ferrari than Hamilton’s brakes. They are not competitive. Hamilton is closer to Leclerc, but is that because the car’s setup is moving towards Hamilton’s needs?

It might be, as Leclerc’s qualifying performances have taken a step or two backwards. He said that his performance in Singapore was the best he could do, and that he felt more like a passenger. He also acknowledged that they are now the fourth best car on the grid, and it is hard to disagree.

Hamilton has a very good record here. Four wins and another five podiums. His second place in 2023 was subsequently disqualified after the race and he suffered a DNF last year. Leclerc won the race last year from fourth on the grid, after Norris and Verstappen got involved in a bit of a war.

It seems a bit far-fetched to think that Ferrari are close to a race win right now.

Red Bull

I am a bit confused as to why Red Bull are continuing to develop the 2025 car. Next year is the big one, the big regulation change which has caused everyone else to concentrate on their 2026 program. But Red Bull have brought new parts to just about every race recently. They have been very successful and giving Verstappen a car he can win in, but the team admit that they are diverting resources from the 2026 program in the 2025 car.

Verstappen is staying with Red Bull for 2026, biding his time to see who has produced the 2026 package, then he jumps ship for 2027. Trying to help him win the 2025 title isn’t going to change that.

By taking away resources from the 2026 car, it just means they are hurting their chances of making a winning machine for 2026, and that is the only thing that would make him stay with Red Bull. It is hard to understand, but it is what it is, and Verstappen is probably going to be favourite for the upcoming races.

Unlocked Performance

That he was competitive in high downforce trim in Singapore means that Red Bull have unlocked the car’s performance across a range of set ups, not just low downforce ones. He should now have a good car everywhere.

Verstappen has had six consecutive GP podiums here, including three wins, and he has also won both sprint races held here in 2023 and 2024. He will be very much in the frame for both wins this weekend.

Yuki Tsunoda has had three top ten finishes at COTA but he is still struggling for consistency. He is worth keeping an eye on in the practice session to see if he is on the pace of the top ten.

The Japanese driver made a terrible start in Singapore, compounding a bad grid position, but after the race, he was quite happy. He said that his race pace was the best he has had at Red Bull. He is definitely worth attention this weekend.

Williams

I just cannot get Williams right. The car has got good potential, but the team and drivers are just not making the most of it. I expected them to be more competitive in Singapore and it looked like they would after free practice on Friday, but they were off the pace in qualifying after choosing a wrong setup, and then just to rub salt into the wounds, both cars were disqualified from qualifying for having the rear wing slot too big when the DRS was activated. That’s bad.

They managed to use a smart strategy to get Sainz into the points, using Albon to hold up his rivals. It is a shame they couldn’t have done the same thing in Baku, but I’m not bitter, much. They are still some way from realising their potential. Maybe they should hire Christian Horner to get them into shape? Just a thought.

Racing Bulls

It was all going so well for Hadjar in Singapore, until the lights out for the start of the race. He was disappointed with his eighth place in qualifying and he did look to have top 6 pace. When the race started his power unit developed a problem and he had to nurse it home, finishing a frustrated 11th place.

Liam Lawson was just poor in practice and qualifying. He tried a sensible Singapore strategy and ran as long as possible waiting for a safety car, but for the second year in a row, it didn’t come. The weekend ended a run of five consecutive points scoring race weekends. Both drivers have never driven at COTA but the car is good enough for them to be in the hunt for points.

Aston Martin

With his seventh-place finish in Singapore, Alonso finally overtook Lance Stroll as the team’s top points scorer in 2025. They are not the most predictable of teams, but Alonso will get the most out of the car.

Stroll has been consistently poor in the last three race weekends and has had just one top ten finish here. Since the start of the turbo hybrid era, Alonso has had two top tens but also four DNFs.

Aston Martin are just four points behind the Racing Bulls now and their target will be to finish ahead of their nearest rivals. The team have never gone well here and I think they could struggle again.

Sauber

Their golden period after the Spanish GP upgrade has spluttered out, with just one points finish from the last four races. Hulkenberg seems to have improved his qualifying performances but things have not worked out in the races. He is now six races without scoring a point. He has scored three top tens here, but also three DNFs. Bortoleto makes his track debut.

Sauber have only scored one point here from the last eight races.

Haas

Another home race for the American team, but it is not the kind of home advantage which is any great advantage. It is not like Ferrari at Monza.

The team have only scored points here on three occasions and Hulkenberg’s 8th place in 2024 was their best ever result at COTA. Haas are nine points behind Sauber, so they are aiming to beat them and close the gap.

Ocon has just one top ten finish here, Bearman is making his debut. They are very hard to call, but Bearman has got the better of Ocon, outqualifying the Frenchman in eight of the last ten GP weekends.

Alpine

Just going through the motions, making up the numbers.

2025 US GP Summary

This weekend we have a Sprint race format and a non-consecutive tyre compound allocation. A real tricked up concoction to put on a show. Not one for the purists.

There is just the one free practice session before the cars go into sprint qualifying. The format is designed to make things more difficult for the teams to get their setups spot on, and hopefully mix things up a bit.

The first three sprints of the year have produced three different winners. Hamilton won in China, but that was the peak of the season for Ferrari and before they got rumbled for excessive plank wear. Norris won in Miami, and Verstappen won in Belgium.

Piastri Consistent In Sprints

Piastri has been very consistent in the sprint format, finishing second in all three. Verstappen only missed out on one sprint podium. That was in Miami where he finished fourth, but a ten second penalty moved him back into seventeenth.

The two McLaren’s and Verstappen have the best records. Hamilton has one win and third. The short format means plank wear is not a big issue and Ferrari can run the car lower and more effectively, so maybe we could see one of the red cars in the mix.

Max Verstappen won the sprint race here last year. With the Red Bull in the ascendency in recent races, he should be right there again. Perhaps in the GP he may find tyre wear to be a problem, but not in a short, low fuel sprint.

2025 US GP Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to win the sprint race @ 3.00 with Betfred, Livescorebet

Sticking with the Red Bull theme, the only other ante-post bet at this stage is a rare one on Yuki Tsunoda. He is effectively racing for his job next year. It is expected that he will be out of the Red Bull team, replaced by Hadjar, and he is only left with a chance to get back in at Racing Bulls.

Red Bull have been aggressive with car updates in recent races, and Tsunoda always gets them in the next race. He has been saying that the car is getting better to drive and he should have the latest upgrade that Verstappen had in Singapore at his disposal.

Tsunoda has had three points finishes here from four starts and he clearly likes the track. If the car upgrades continue to give him more confidence, then he can get back into the points, as he has done in two of the last four races in 2025.

2025 US GP Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points @ 2.50 generally available

There will be updates for sprint qualifying, the sprint race, qualifying proper and the race on Sunday .

-JamesPunt