2025 US GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 US GP Raceday preview. Max Verstappen landed us a nice winner in the Sprint Race, hopefully we can get more on the board in the main event.

2025 US GP Raceday

It has not been a good weekend so far. I really do not like Sprint race weekends. They are very disjointed and they lack the rhythm of a proper GP weekend. The teams get to reset the cars after the Sprint part of the race is run and that can change the pecking order, as it did yesterday.

The one constant is that Max Verstappen is the top dog. It was close for Sprint qualifying and it was set up for an interesting race, but that was all over by the first corner. Nobody was blamed for the crash, racing incident on the first lap and all that, but what was Piastri thinking?

Did he just think there was no other cars on the track? Yanking his car sharp left rather than keep to his line meant that a collision was inevitable. If he had just kept going to where he was heading, there would have been no collision, he would have finished the race and picked up points, but instead he took out his teammate and let Verstappen close the gap on both of them. It must be said that Piastri is having a shocker this weekend and it looks like things are getting to him.

Verstappen Odds On

Max Verstappen is the 1.54 favourite to win the race. Is there any reason to think he won’t convert the pole into a win? His conversion rate in 2025 is 50% but he has converted the last two and that is a reflection of improvements to the car. The pole sitter in the US GP has only won five of the twelve races and in the last three years, the pole sitter has not even finished on the podium.

The driver starting from second place has also won five races here, so being on the front row has been the place to be for ten of the twelve races.

There is an argument that being second on the grid here is actually an advantage. It is on the left-hand side of the track and the first corner is a sharp left hander. The driver on pole, has to move across the track to block the path of the driver in second and if the pole sitter is just a fraction slower off the line, it can be too late.

Last Year

Last year we had Verstappen on pole and Norris in second and Verstappen was so busy trying to block Norris, he went in too deep and left the door wide open for Charles Leclerc, who took the lead and won the race. The driver starting from second has led after the first turn in five of the last eight races at the track and that seems to back up the idea that starting from second is the place to be.

The first corner here does cause a lot of problems, especially on the first lap, and we saw that in yesterday’s Sprint race. All the way down the field there is the potential for collisions and then other cars running into the debris. I suppose it makes it exciting but is designing a crashing zone that wise?

Sprint Race

Verstappen’s Red Bull won the Sprint race, but had the two McLarens been in the race, would that have been the case? I am not that sure. Verstappen was not happy with his race pace and Russell was able to put a bit of heat on him, in a slower car.

Verstappen was 0.291s faster in yesterday qualifying session, but had Norris been able to string his best sectors together, he would have been 0.006s faster. Nothing in it, but he didn’t. The point is that the pace of the two cars is very close.

Verstappen has the clean air advantage if he retains the lead at the start, and that could be enough. The Mclaren does tend to look after its tyres better and maybe that could be an ace up their sleeve? Probably not.

Red Bull made a few changes to their car after the sprint to improve the balance and it worked. McLaren on the other hand didn’t change their cars, just repaired the crash damage and they slipped back.

Panic Attack At McLaren

There is more than a whiff of growing panic at McLaren. They now have Verstappen in a competitive car bearing down on them and they are dropping the ball and trying themselves in knots with ‘Papaya rules’ and trying to keep Oscar happy. Pitstops have been sloppy and now the drivers are making little mistakes. They need to beat Verstappen to stop his momentum, but they are trying to do it on the back foot.

If you fancy Norris, you can get 3.25, but I ‘ve lost twice on him already this weekend and that is enough. As for Piastri, he starts from sixth and he was nearly 0.6s off Verstappen’s pace in qualifying. He is available at 29.00 to win the race and it is a while since he was sort of price to win.

Verstappen is no value at 1.54, but if he negotiates the first corner and keeps the lead, he will be hard to beat. Norris isn’t going to take any big risks and the other cars are too slow.

2025 US GP Raceday: Podium Finish Market

Verstappen and Norris have been the best two drivers this weekend, and deserve to finish in the top two spots, but who could join them on the podium?

Charles Leclerc, last year’s winner from fourth in the grid, starts one place better and he was just 0.006s off Norris’ time yesterday. The driver starting third has finished on the podium for the last five years and in half of the twelve races here.

The Ferrari is a very hard car to predict and seems to have changed its performance a couple of times already this weekend. One minute its rubbish, then it’s good. Leclerc has had five podium finishes in 2025, but more recently, it is the Mercedes of George Russell that has looked more competitive.

Russell has had eight podium finishes in 2025 and three in the last five races. He has never been better than fifth around here and the fourth place grid place has been a bit of a cursed position. Leclerc won it from fourth place last year, but that was an outlier. Russell is just 2.00 to finish on the podium.

Hamilton Loves It Here

What of Lewis Hamilton? His record here is phenomenal, winning four times in Texas and having a total of nine podium finishes from twelve starts (he was disqualified from second place in 2023 but that was after the podium presentation, so the bookies paid out).

Hamilton started from 5th in 2019 and finished second. He had looked to be the better of the two Ferrari drivers until yesterday’s qualifying. He is yet to have a podium in 2025 but has had a trio of fourth places. I thought he might have done it at Silverstone, but that was just a fourth.

He would need some luck, some attrition ahead of him, and he could get it on this track which usually sees a few retirements. He is a 10.00 shot, which is big jump from the 2.25 and 2.00 of the two cars ahead of him. I will have a minimum bet on him as the odds look OK.

2025 US GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 10.00 with Unibet

We have backed Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points but he has not had much luck this weekend so far. He feels there is decent pace in the car but he needs to keep his nose clean and hope for a bit of luck. His nemesis, Liam Lawson, starts one place ahead and Lawson is dangerous to be in close proximity to, but fingers crossed. You never know.

Match Bets

Fernado Alonso was very quick on Friday, qualifying sixth and his reward was to be taken out by Piastri’s recklessness at the first corner. His final run in Q3 was a bit rushed and he overheated the tyres getting to the line to start his final flier. He may be a little out of position.

Oli Bearman qualified a couple of places ahead of Alonso in his upgraded Haas. He got a (deserved) penalty in the sprint race which cost him a point, but qualified 8th for the race. He is 6-12 vs. Alonso in 2025 and in races where he has out qualified Alonso 1-2. I will take a chance on Alonso to repeat what he did in Singapore and move from tenth to seventh and beat Bearman who has started ahead of him.

2025 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alonso to beat Bearman @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

The final bet is just a stats based one. With five of the last eight races here seeing the driver starting second taking the lead at the first corner, Norris is tempting at 4.50 to be the leader after the first lap. The layout of the track just makes it more likely here than at most tracks, a bit like Spa also does. It probably won’t win as Norris is a bit wary of mixing it with Max, but if the door is open he might walk through it. Small stakes.

2025 US GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Lando Norris to lead at the end of the first lap @ 4.50 with Livescorebet

I will call it a day with those three bets. It hasn’t been a good weekend and the first corner here can ruin your best bets.

-JamesPunt