2025 US Open Golf Betting Preview

James Punt is back in action at the third golf Major of the year after an exciting PGA Championship. Oakmont usually provides a stern test so whoever wins this weekend will have earned it.  Check out his 2025 US Open Golf betting preview below.

2025 US Open Golf

The 125th US Open Championship starts this Thursday at the famous Oakmont Country Club. Regarded as one of the most difficult courses in the world, the track this week is a 7372 yard par 70. It features a 289 par three and two 600 yard par fives, but it is the very fast greens and the very penal rough that makes it tougher than the rest.

The USGA like to make this event very difficult. A real test of the best golfers’ skills and mental fortitude. This is the tenth time Oakmont has played host to the US Open and since we were last here the course has undergone a ‘restoration’.

Part of that was to add 150 yards to its length, as is the norm these days. The bunkers have had any rough around them removed to gather more shots into them, because, well just to make it harder.

Thick Rough & Narrow Fairways

The fairways are narrow and the thick rough is only a few feet away from the fairways’ edge, so not much in the way of graduated rough. A wet spring has left the rough lush and thick. It will be cut at 5 inches for Thursday and not cut for the rest of the weekend.

Obviously, accuracy is at a premium. There are 170 bunkers and not the shallow ones that are there to make the course look good on TV. These are hazards. Stick your drive into a fairway bunker and you have dropped a shot.

The greens are Augusta fast and very undulating. They are the fastest poa annua greens in the US and the size of the greens have been enlarged, just to make it harder.

Over Par

Dustin Johnson won here the last time Oakmont was the host venue and he finished four under par. It is expected that an over par score is more likely in 2025.

Unlike many of the courses these day, Oakmont is not all about the big hitters. Coping with the greens and keeping out of the rough and out of the bunkers is more important.

The weather has been wet so the course will play a bit longer. It will be dry on Thursday and Friday, but the weekend may see more rain.

The USGA always sets their courses up to be tough and while this may be tougher than the rest, they always aim to test the golfers’ all round games. The emphasis this weekend is about keeping out of the rough, so accuracy off the tee is key.

Great ‘green in regulation’ stats have been a feature of winners here and you always want your pick to come into the event in decent form. A good record in previous US Opens is a plus, and don’t be put off backing a player who has yet to win a Major as they are increasingly common these days. Seven of the last nine US Opens have been first time Major winners.

2025 US Open Golf: The Favourites

Scotty Scheffler

Yet to win a US open but he has had three top seven finishes from his last three, including a second and third place. His all round game is the best out there and his recent form sees four tournament wins from his last five played. His temperament is very well suited to tough courses. He is impossible to ignore, but odds of 4.00 are tight, but not unreasonable.

Bryson DeChambeau 

Fifth at Augusta and second in the PGA, he is in good form outside of the LIV tour, as well as on it. He has won two US Opens but outside of those wins, no other top 10s. He might be a good win only bet at enhanced odds, even with a new set of irons.

DeChambeau finished fifteenth here in the 2016 US Open but he is the defending champion this year, and winning back to back US Opens is a rare thing. Koepka did it in 2017-2018, and the last player to it before that was Curtis Strange in 1988 -1989.

Jon Rahm 

The 2021 US Open winner with two other top 10s. His form is decent but not close to Scheffler or De Chambeau. Seems to have lost his edge since switching to LIV. He has played some better stuff recently and he thrives on poa annua greens. He finished 23rd here in 2016, as an amateur. Rahm does have a point to prove. That he hasn’t gone to seed since sucking up all that LIV cash.

Rory McIlroy 

Since landing his career Slam at Augusta his game has gone AWOL. There was likely to be some mental let down after achieving a dream result, and McIlroy admits that he finds getting motivated after a win very difficult.

It seems to me that his head is not in the right place. I suspect he is going through the motions before getting his head down in preparation for The Open at Royal Portrush, and the Ryder Cup after that. After winning the career slam, his next dream will be to win the Open Championship in Northern Ireland.

His driver was declared non-conforming just before the USPGA and he has struggled to find a suitable alternative. He was trying shorter shafts and different models and nothing has helped his driving. Rory needs to be arrow straight this weekend. He has been moving house to the UK as well and he is easily passed over at odds of 15.00.

Xander Schauffele 

Consistency on a stick in the US Open with seven top 10s from his last eight. His fitness is still a concern, just one top ten from his last six tournaments suggests that he is not in top form.

Another First Time Major Winner?

Tommy Fleetwood 

I rarely back Fleetwood in Majors and that has paid off. Is he a possible contender this weekend? He certainly fits the first time winner bill. He has the game and has had three top five finishes from his last eight US Opens. His recent form sees three top tens from his last five events. Can he get one over the line is the big question?

Sepp Straka 

Won the Truist Championship last month, his second PGA tile of the season, and was third in his last outing at the Memorial Tournament.

Straka was ranked first for driving accuracy at The Memorial and tenth for GIR, two things that would be very valuable should he carry that through to this weekend. He has a good all round game, but his US Open record is nothing to get excited about with a best finish of 28th and two missed cuts from four starts.

He is ranked 1st for driving accuracy %, that bit better than Scheffler, ranked 11th for driving accuracy, again better than Scheffler and 17th for SG putting, again better than Scheffler.

Straka is an improving player however and full of confidence. It is always hard to say how good an improving player really is, but getting better can only be a plus.

Ludvig Auberg

The promising Swede might not be good enough on and around the greens and his odds are a bit cramped for my liking.

Harris English 

Getting plenty of attention from the tipsters and why not? He is not a big beast and his odds reflect that, but he ticks lot of boxes. Twelfth at Augusta and second at the USPGA already in this year’s Majors.

English has had three top eight finishes in the last five US Opens. He is a tour winner in 2025 at the Farmers Insurance Open. His game is that of a solid all-rounder and that can be a good thing on US Open set ups, which may explain why he has made every cut in his first nine US Opens, including here in 2016.

Three top twelves from his last four events shows he is in good form.

2025 US Open Golf Selections

From the favourites, the choice is difficult. It is so hard to knock Scheffler’s form or his chances this weekend. The only thing putting me off him are his odds.

I will go for Bryson De Chambeau at slightly more rewarding odds. We backed him for the USPGA and he came in second and hopefully he can go one better this weekend with the help of his new irons. Unlike Scheffler, De Chambeau has won the US Open, twice. Defending is hard but he strikes me as someone who has that Major wining pedigree and mentality, in the same way Koepka had in his prime.

2025 US Open Golf Tip: 1 point e/w Bryson DeChambeau to win @ 8.50 with Boylesports (pick your place 1/5 the odds 1-6)

The second selection is a mid-range price range player who still has it to prove in the Majors, but he looks to have the game and is it great form.

2025 US Open Golf Tip: 0.5 point e/w Stepp Straka to win @ 31.00 with Boylesports (1/5 the odds 1-10)

The final outright selection is on a longer shot but one with a good tournament record and who has been in good recent form.

2025 US Open Golf Tip: 0.5 point e/w Harris English @ 67.00 with Livescorebet (1/5 the odds 1-10)

From the side markets I will have a play on Rory McIlroy to miss the cut. That may sound mad for a player who has finished in the top 10 in his last six US Opens, but he did miss the cut here in 2016. He also missed the cut in the Canadian Open last weekend as he continued to struggle with his driver, and his head.

McIlroy is regarded as the best driver of a golf ball in the world. He hits it long, high and straight, but after having to bin his driver before the USPGA, he has struggled for accuracy. He says he has settled on a new one, but his body language suggested to me that he might be kidding himself on.

It is not nice standing over a drive with no great confidence at the best of times. At a course like this, it could fry your brain. Of course, he could just hit a three wood, but he said at his press event that ‘distance is never a disadvantage’ which suggests that he will persevere with whatever big stick he goes into battle with.

2025 US Open Golf Tip: 1 point Rory McIlroy to miss the cut @ 3.75 with SpreadEx

-JamesPunt