2025 WM Darts Saturday Preview & Tips – JP
2025 WM Darts Saturday Preview
James has already posted his ante-post outright World Matchplay preview and tips, if you haven’t read it you can do so via this link. His 2025 WM Darts Saturday previews and tips are below.
James Wade vs. Joe Cullen
Our longshot selection for the title, James Wade, is the 1.44 favourite to win this opening match of the tournament. Wade is in good form, winning seven of his last nine matches. He was a semi-finalist in the Baltic Sea Darts Open last weekend, and he won PC19 last month.
The Machine won’t win any prizes for having the biggest averages, but his game is about finishing, taking his chances. His win rate in 2025 is 69% and there are only six other players with a better rate that that in the competition.
Wade has played in nineteen Matchplays and won fifteen first round matches. If it wasn’t for Phil Taylor, he would have won more than just the one title.
Cullen Struggles
Joe Cullen has lost six of his last ten matches and in terms of 12-month averages, he is down in 70th position with 91.09 (Wade 94.93). His win rate is 55% and he is the only player in the field with legs won percentage of less than 50% in 2025.
Six of his last ten matches have seen him score below his seasonal average and he has had some famous struggles on the outer ring. His checkout rate is 36.16%, which compares badly with Wade on 42.49%. Even this long into his career, there are only four players better than Wade at checking out.
Their H2H record is 10-8 to Wade and he won their only match in 2025 6-4 on the Euro Tour in May. They have only played one longer format match which Wade won 10-6, way back in 2019.
Off The Oche Issues
It would easy to dismiss Cullen, he can still play but he does have these spells in the wilderness, usually because of something away from the game. Whatever it is, he is lacking in confidence and his head is going down pretty quickly. Wade, on the other hand, recently won his first PDC title since 2022 and will be feeling confident in very familiar surroundings.
Cullen has not lost a first round match here for six years, but coming here in not great form, and defending £50,000 of ranking money from his semi-final here two years ago, will put a lot of pressure on him.
Wade is the 1.44 favourite, Cullen 3.00. The odds look about right and there is little of interest in the side markets. It is a no bet for me and hopefully Wade can progress.
2025 WM Darts Saturday Tip: No Bet
Danny Noppert vs. Cameron Menzies
Menzies is one of two debutants this year, and they do tend to struggle. Menzies has won 71% of his matches in 2025 which is a lot better than Noppert’s 59%. The Scotsman’s problem is that his recent form is not his best. He has won six of his last ten matches, but to be honest, he hasn’t beaten much. In those ten matches he has hit seven averages of under 92, and that is unlikely to do against Noppert.
Noppert has a problem when it gets to the business end of tournaments but at least he gets there a lot. He has won seven of his last ten matches and has hit eight averages of 97+. Unless Menzies lifts his recent form up a couple of notches, he could get a spanking here.
Noppert has only won three of his six first round matches here, but he did reach the semi-final in 2022, so he knows the way to the toilets.
Last year all four debutants lost their first-round matches, including Luke Littler. Of the 30 players in this year’s field who have played here before, 20 lost on debut.
Their H2H record is 2-2. Noppert won their only TV match, a 5-4 win in last year’s Grand Slam. They haven’t played any long format matches.
Noppert is the 1.70 favourite with Menzies 2.30. If both play something like how they have been recently, Noppert looks the more likely to win.
2025 WM Darts Saturday Tip: 2 points Danny Noppert to win @ 1.70 with Ladbrokes, Livescorebet
Luke Humphries vs. Gian Van Veen
Humphries is the defending champion, and it is nine years since the title was successfully defended. Humphries only won one match in his first two visits to Blackpool, but in 2023 he reached the semi-final and he won it at his fourth attempt last year. He has won nine from twelve on this famous stage.
Humphries’ recent form is eight wins in his last ten matches. However, since failing to win the World Cup with Luke Littler he has played OK, but his scoring has been a bit light at times, with just wo 95+ averages from seven matches.
That was good enough to win the US Darts Masters and while you can beat Danny Lauby and Stowe Buntz with low 90s, he will likely need something closer to his A game to be sure of beating Van Veen.
High Average
Gian van Veen holds the eighth highest 12-month average with 97.07, which is not far off Humphries’ 98.18. His win rate in 2025 is 70%, slightly better than Humphries 69%.
Van Veen has won six of his last ten matches and hit seven 95+ averages including four 100+. He is not yet a proficient title winner, but he improves year by year and should be a top 16 player in the foreseeable future. And he will win titles, big ones.
Their H2H record is 4-1 to Humphries, but Van Veen won their last match, and it was a significant one. It was an 8-3 win in the final of PC6 and was Van Veen’s first senior PDC title. To do it against the world number one would have been extra special.
Luke Humphries is the 1.50 favourite, Van Veen 2.87 and the money has been going down on Van Veen, which I am not surprised by. Van Veen made his debut here last year and averaged 100 in a 12-13 loss to Rob Cross. I think he can give Humphries something to think about at the very least.
2025 WM Darts Saturday Tip: 1 point Gian van Veen to win +2.5 legs @ 1.80 with Hills
Nathan Aspinall vs. Wessel Nijman
The 2023 World Matchplay Champion, Nathan Aspinall, is feeling confident and in decent form. He has won six of his last ten matches, was runner up at the US Darts Masters and has won twice on the European tour in 2025. He is fit and that is not always the case with The Asp.
One concern is that in his last ten, he has hit four sub 92.5 averages, so he has not been that consistent scoring wise. Aspinall does have a good record here and has won his last four first round matches, won one title and reached two more quarter finals.
Nijman is the second of the two debutants and it has been a difficult venue for newbies. The young Dutchman has also won six of his last ten matches and, like Aspinall, has not been that consistent.
He lacks experience in the big majors and longer formats. That is why rookies tend to struggle here. It is a very different tournament to most. A very hot environment with the crowd very close to the stage and it can take people a while to get used to it.
Their H2H record extends to just one match. That was the semi-final of the European Darts Open, and it went to a deciding leg with Aspinall winning 7-6.
Aspinall is the 1.73 favourite, Nijman 2.30. It is a tricky one to call as both players have been a bit hot and cold of late. However, experience often makes the difference in Blackpool and I will give Aspinall the nod.
