2025 WM Darts Semi-Finals Preview & Tips – JP
2025 WM Darts Semi-Finals Preview
The Iceman was beaten by Josh Rock last night so we are now relying on either Clayton or Wade to land us the outright win. Check out James Punt’s 2025 WM Darts Semi-Finals preview and tips are below.
James Wade vs. Jonny Clayton
We have Wade to win the title at 67.00, Clayton at 26.00. My work here is done. But which one is likely to be acting on our behalf tomorrow night?
Their H2H record is 16-13 to Clayton, but Wade has won four of their last five. In 2025 it is 2-1 Wade, but Clayton won their last match 6-0 in April. Their last longer format match was a 10-3 win for Clayton in the 2023 Masters, and he also won 10-9 in the same competition in 2021. They have never met in the Matchplay and in televised matches it is 9-4 to Clayton.
Averages
Their tournament averages are 101.10 for Wade and 97.04 for the ferret. Clayton has lost 22 legs, Wade 21. Wade has been the better player, but not by much. Wade has played in nine Matchplay semi-finals and won six. Clayton has played one and won one.
The market has Clayton as the 1.67 favourite, and Wade 2.25. I find it very difficult to pick a firm favourite here. Both are playing very well and both are capable of winning it. Both are big tournament winners, but Wade’s record here is immense, albeit that a lot of his deep runs came quite a few years ago. Last year Wade faced Humphries in the semi-final and he averaged 102.38 but lost 10-17.
I have looked at total legs, correct score, 180 markets, outrights and can find nothing of interest. There is some value in Wade’s odds, but it is a no bet for me.
2025 WM Darts Semi-Finals Tip: No Bet
Luke Littler vs. Josh Rock
I have checked and these two have never played each other before in competition, which is hard to believe.
Josh Rock has often said that he sees himself up there with Littler for many years to come, but this will be his first chance to measure up to him on a big stage in a major championship. Rock also said, after he won the World Cup of Darts with Daryl Gurney, that one of them would go on and win a major this year. Winning the World Cup has been a launch pad for some players in the past and it certainly has boosted his confidence.
Big-Match Experience
Luke Littler is already an accomplished big match, big stage player and he has the advantage in terms of experience. His tournament average is 104.04 (Rock 101.17) and he has lost 27 legs, as has Josh Rock.
Littler had a very dominant first round performance in round one, beating Ryan Searle 10-2, but he needed extra time to beat Jermaine Wattimena in round two, and Andrew Gilding very nearly took him to extra time, with Littler closing their match at 16-14.
Looking at their path to the semi-final and I would say that Rock had the tougher one. He had to beat Ross Smith, MVG (a good version of MVG) and the in-form Gerwyn Price. Littler had the out of form Searle, Wattimena and Gilding. Littler’s draw looked good from the minute it was made, Rock was always going to have a tough job, but here he is.
Money for Rock
Luke Littler is the 1.40 favourite, Josh Rock 3.00 and it is the Northern Irishman who is being shortened in the market. The fact that we have two young players in the semi-final of a Matchplay, and they are playing each other for the first time, is unusual. Bragging rights are up for grabs. Rock is feeling very confident, Littler is always confident, and it is easy to expect a close match.
Over 29.5 legs is an even money chance. Both players have had one match go to added legs (there have only been four in the entire tournament) and it does make enough appeal to back that.
At the outright odds, Rock makes more appeal at 3.00. Littler has had trouble shaking off Wattimena and Gilding while Rock was very good against an in-form Price and a more focused MVG.
Littler has been very strong on the 180s, hitting at a rate of 0.48 per leg, Rock at 0.35. That is not far off their 12-month rate of 0.46 and 0.38 respectively.
