2025 World Grand Prix Final Preview & Tips – JP
2025 World Grand Prix Final Preview
James Punt came up dry on semi-finals night but it’s a big day for us today as the two Lukes fight it out in the final. Hopefully Humphries can land our outright wager. Check out his 2025 World Grand Prix Final tips below.
Luke Humphries v Luke Littler
So, we have ended up with the number 1 and 2 seeds in the final. It is not a great surprise, although Littler nearly fell in the quarters.
The World Grand Prix final was played as a best of nine sets format until last year when it was extended to a best of eleven. Half of the last ten ended with a 5-2 scoreline and only two required a deciding set, the last being back in 2017 when Daryl Gurney beat Simon Whitlock 5-4. I’m not sure we should expect a classic final, despite having the two best players in the world facing off.
Littler Better So Far
Littler has been the better player so far, but he hasn’t been totally consistent. Humphries has been steady and hasn’t had much bother getting to the final, but he hasn’t caught fire at any stage, he hasn’t had to.
Luke littler has had to dig deep a couple of times and the fact that he was able to do so stood out. I get the feeling that Littler just has that extra gear when he needs it. Humphries will have to find his best game if we are to cop the win part of our each way bet.
H2H
Their H2H record is 14-10 to Littler but in terms of playing TV major finals, it is 3-1 to Luke Humphries. He won the 2024 World Championship final 7-4, the 2024 Players Championship Final 11-7 and the 2025 Premier League Final 11-8.
Littler beat Humphries 11-7 in the 2024 Premier League Final. When they have met in big finals, it is Humphries who has mostly prevailed. Nine of their twenty-four matches required a deciding leg, which you would expect from two players at the top of the game.
Littler is the 1.53 favourite with Humphries 2.75. We are on Humphries outright at 7.50 and the place bet has landed. I am not going to have any more interest in the result betting and just hope that Humphries can add to his tally of final wins over Littler.
Side Markets
In the side markets, the Most 180s is interesting. Littler is the 1.53 favourite, Humphries 3.75 and the draw 12.00. Littler does hit more per leg than Humphries. Over the last 12 months Littler has hit a maximum at 0.45 per leg, Humphries 0.32. In this tournament so far, Littler has hit 24 maximums at 0.387 per leg, Humphries 25 at 0.352 per leg. Not a lot in it.
However, if we just look at their career H2H stats in this market, Littler has hit the most 180s in ten matches, Humphries in nine and in five they both hit the same number. If you had been backing Humphries at 3.75 over those twenty-four matches you would have been doing nicely, and the same for the draw. Backing Littler was the quick route to the poor house.
In a long format match, I would expect the chance of it being a tie to be less, but I may be wrong to think that. In the four TV finals Littler has hit the most 180s twice, Humphries once and it was a draw once.
For a bit of interest at what do look like decent value odds, I will split a point and back Humphries and the draw.
