2026 Chinese GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 Chinese GP Raceday preview.

2026 Chinese GP Raceday

The Sprint race was surprisingly entertaining with good battles between Russell and Hamilton and Hamilton and Leclerc. The traditionalists will be furious!

We had two bets. Bearman beat Hadjar to win that one and the bet on Hamilton to be leading at the end of the first lap was so close. He got past Russell, but Russell was able to re-pass at the end of the long straight. It is that part of the track that is just making Mercedes the favourites to win again tomorrow.

The two Ferraris are a match for the Mercedes, except at the end of that straight. The red cars are just running out of power earlier than the Mercedes, and right at the easiest place to overtake. If Ferrari take the lead, I expect the Mercedes to get them back there, at will.

Antonelli On Pole

The pole sitter for the race is not George Russell, but Kimi Antonelli. Russell’s car stopped on track and there was much button pressing to get him back to the pits, but he just wasn’t able to nail a perfect lap after all the panic and had just the one flying lap. Russell had been fastest in every session before that and he starts second. He is still the favourite to win the race.

Part of that is because Antonelli made a mess of his start in the Sprint race, just as he did in Australia. Mercedes had been working on how to approach the formation lap, so as to arrive on the grid with a fully charged battery pack. Antonelli didn’t manage to do it. An empty battery and he was swamped. He then caused a collision and was given a 10 second penalty. Despite that penalty, he was still able to recover to finish fifth. Ferrari are closer this weekend, but sadly not close enough.

Weather Watch

Tomorrow’s weather is set to be cooler and windy. This is expected to increase the chances of tyre graining and degradation. That moves things towards a two-stop strategy.

Looking at the available tyres, Hadjar has no new sets of medium or soft tyres. That means he will have to do one stint on a used set. Everyone bar Alonso, Sainz and Lawson has two new sets of the preferred hard tyres.

Ideally a driver would like two new sets of hards and a new set of mediums, especially if it is a two stopper.

2026 Chinese GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

Mercedes

Mercedes locks out the front row for the second race in a row. It wasn’t all plain sailing for them today. Antonelli had a horrible start in the Sprint race and then Russell had a car problem in Q3 in qualifying. Outside of that, imperious.

Antonelli was on pole in Miami last year and made a mess of that start, so it is possible that he has another problem in the GP. Russell still looks the quicker of the two and he starts as the 1.75 favourite, Antonelli 3.25.

That problem for Russell could rear its head again, and he had a front wing problem at the end of Q2 which required a new front wing to be fitted. It is not a certainty that Mercedes have a trouble free race.

Ferrari 

Both drivers got great starts and Hamilton had a ding dong battle with Russell, but that lack of straight-line speed cost him. Maybe if they used the funky rear wing it could have been different.

Mercedes are expecting another difficult start. The Ferrari is significantly quicker off the line and it would be a surprise if a red car didn’t get the lead at some point, but keeping it is the trick and it looks like it might be beyond them.

Hamilton is enjoying himself, Leclerc not so much. He says he just doesn’t enjoy driving this track, but he did beat Hamilton in the sprint. Hamilton had hurt his tyres while battling Russell and Leclerc took advantage.

We are on Leclerc to win and finish on the podium. You never know, but he is now 13.00 to win the race and 1.95 for a podium.

McLaren 

A better weekend for them, but still adrift of the top two teams. Norris did get ahead of Hamilton before the safety car deployment, but that was due to Hamilton having shredded his front tyres. Once he got a new set, he was ahead again. If tyre degradation is an issue for Ferrari again tomorrow, then McLaren may get a sniff of beating at least one of them.

Red Bull 

Things have been tough for Red Bull and that looks set to continue. The team tried setup changes after the Sprint race, but Verstappen said they made zero difference. He is expecting the car to be very hard to drive and it will be a struggle.

Hadjar tried to do the Sprint race on soft tyres and that was a mistake as he dropped places and finished just 15th. It didn’t help that he got whacked by Antonelli and had some car damage as a result. If Verstappen is struggling, I imagine Hadjar will find it harder still.

Alpine 

Gasly qualified 7th for both qualifying sessions, but he went backwards in the Sprint race due to tyre degradation. He said that they have made changes to address that problem, but we shall have to wait and see if that is the case.

Haas 

Bearman had a good Sprint race, making up one place, but lost out to Liam Lawson in the best of the rest race. Bearman did not stop under the safety car and on old tyres he couldn’t hold on to 7th place.

Bearman qualified tenth for the GP and I suspect he will be right in the mix for best of the rest again in the GP. The Alpine is a bit quicker over one lap, but over a race distance, it will be closer. Like Ferrari, Haas are losing out on the straight.

Audi 

Hulkenberg is becoming Mr. 11th place. That was his position in the two qualifying sessions. He retired from the Sprint race. Bortoleto has been off the pace all weekend. Reliability is a big worry and just getting to the end of the race is the challenge.

Racing Bulls 

A mixed weekend so far. Lindblad has not had a good one. Never better than 15th in any session and was a DNF in the Sprint. Liam Lawson had a good Sprint, rising from 13th to finish 7th. He didn’t crash into anyone, which helps, but it was the choice to run with the hard tyres that was the main reason.

Both drivers were hampered by yellow flags at the end of Q3 and they were on course to qualify higher than they have.

Williams 

Albon is very frustrated and slow. Sainz is reasonably happy because it has not been as bad for him as it was in Melbourne. They are still very slow and just making up the numbers.

Aston Martin 

Both cars finished the Sprint race, which is progress. Better reliability, but still very slow.

Cadillac 

Managed to out qualify one of the Aston Martins in GP qualifying, but the car is very slow and tends to fall apart.

2026 Chinese GP Raceday Selections

I am not going to revisit the race winner market. I don’t see any value. Antonelli is of some interest at 3.20, but his poor starts and the fact that Russell is faster is enough to put me off him.

We have two points on Leclerc to finish on the podium, and it looks like he needs to beat his teammate to get it. He did so in the Sprint, so hopefully he can do it in the GP.

Esteban Ocon was pleased by the low level of tyre degradation on his Haas. That could be a useful feature for tomorrow’s race. As is the fast-starting Ferrari power unit. He starts thirteenth and has to have a reasonable chance of a points finish. He just missed out in Melbourne, also starting 13th.

2026 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 2.38 with Betfred

I am keen to keep on the right side of Oliver Bearman. The Haas was a good race car in Melbourne and he has been top 10 all weekend. We got him at 6.00 to be best of the rest last weekend, this weekend he is just 2.75.

Ladbrokes have Bearman in a group, along with Ocon, Gasly and Hadjar. His teammate is three places back in the same car. Gasly is three places ahead but he lost ground in the Sprint race and with tyre degradation/graining likely to be higher tomorrow, he may suffer again. Hadjar is sub-optimal on tyre allocation and the Red Bull is proving to be a pig to drive around here.

2026 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to win Ladbrokes Group 2 @ 3.75

I was hoping to find a decent way to oppose Max Verstappen, but it is hard. There is a match bet with Piastri 1.50 to beat him or a group bet with Piastri, Verstappen, Norris and Gasly. Piastri is the 2.25 favourite. If I am right, then it is more of a match bet between Piastri and Norris. It just isn’t big enough.

I am afraid that is all there is.

Back in two weeks for the Japanese GP and then it looks like an F1 free zone in April thanks to Trumplethinskin’s Middle East shenanigans.

-JamesPunt