2026 F1 Drivers Championship Tip – JP
2026 F1 Drivers Championship Tip
I will be posting the full 2026 Formula 1 season preview in late February, after all the pre-season testing has finished, but I wanted to put up one early 2026 F1 Drivers Championship tip, as the odds are shrinking already and likely to continue to do so.
It is far from ideal to go with a bet before the cars have run in anger, especially in a season with an unprecedented level of regulation change, but having done quite a bit of work already, I am happy to pull the trigger on this one.
I will try and be brief and there will be more detail in the forthcoming full preview.
All Cars Launched
As of 24th January, all the teams have launched their cars, or rather their new liveries and bits of their new cars.
Many have also had some track time for ‘filming days’, which are limited to 200km of testing but not with racing slicks. Some are doing 15km ‘promotional runs’, while McLaren have not put a car on track yet and will not do so, until we get to the ‘private’ Barcelona test which starts on Monday 26th January. Even then they will not run on day one.
Ferrari have done a 15km run, and they too will not run on day one in Barcelona. Williams will not be at Barcelona at all as their car is not ready to run.
Bahrain
The real resting will take place in Bahrain over two tests in February, but clearly some teams are better prepared than others. Those that are not running, or doing limited running, will say that they are developing their cars right up to the last minute so they will hit the track as fully developed as possible. However, data is worth much gold, it drives development with real world, on track data worth more than testing on rigs back at the factory.
While these filming days and even the private tests are not much more than ‘shakedowns’ to make sure basic systems work and the seats fit and so on, they do still have value. I prefer anyone I am backing to be as well prepared as possible and to have gathered as much data as possible, and more so when going into a season with completely new regulations.
Compression Ratio Trick
You may have already read about the new buzz words for the 2026 season, Compression Ratio Trick.
Put simply, one, or possibly two, of the five power unit manufactures have spotted a loophole in the new regulations and have designed their new engines in a way that generates more power and improves fuel economy. That manufacturer is Mercedes.
Mercedes made a great success of the last really big regulation change in 2014, when the turbo hybrid power units were introduced. So much so that they won seven consecutive Driver and Constructor titles. They know how to build great power units and have powered nine of the last twelve Constructors’ Championship winning cars.
Mercedes supply power units to McLaren, Williams and from this season, also Alpine. So those teams are set to benefit from the Compression Ratio Trick.
Bulls Building Their own Units
Red Bull and their junior team, Racing Bulls, will be building their own power units from this year, having parted company with Honda.
Red Bull have partnered with Ford, but the reality is that Red Bull Power trains have been planning to build their own power units for some time and they have recruited a lot of staff from Mercedes over the last couple of years. It is said that half of the people working at Red Bull Power trains have previously worked for Mercedes HPP (high performance powertrains).
At Red Bull they have pretty much said that they too are using the Compression Ratio Trick, thanks no doubt to the influx of ex-Mercedes HPP staff.
Remainder Not Happy
The remaining three power unit manufactures, Ferrari, Honda and Audi are not happy, but there is very little they can do about it. They simply missed the loophole.
The FIA held a meeting with all the teams last week regarding the issue. Those teams that have missed the trick were hoping to have the trick banned, but that was never going to happen. In reality, the only way it could be would be with a majority vote of the eleven teams.
The Mercedes powered teams’ number four, and the Red Bull powered team, two. That is six of the eleven teams, a majority. Game over for those that have missed the trick.
There are provisions in the regulations to allow for designs to be changed on the grounds of reliability. If a power unit manufacturer had a problem with part of their unit repeatedly failing, they could redesign it and bring it into play. However, there is no provision for redesigning the power unit on grounds of performance, except in exceptional circumstances.
Mid-Season
With the huge regulation changes, the FIA can allow a power unit to be redesigned mid-season if it is a complete dog (that is my terminology, not theirs). It would have to be a very significant performance differential to the other units, not just a few tenths, and this Compression Ratio Trick is expected to be worth 0.3 – 0.4 seconds a lap. That is very handy, but not big enough for those that haven’t got it to get permission for a redesign.
It is all but certain that Mercedes, McLaren, Williams and Alpine will start the season with a very handy performance advantage over the Ferrari, Honda and Audi powered cars. They may not have any advantage over the Red Bull Ford powered cars, but more about that in the full preview. I am trying to keep this brief after all, honestly, I am trying.
Not only will they start the season with an advantage, but they should finish the season with an advantage. The power units are set in stone for the season.
Who Will Benefit Most?
So which one of the Mercedes powered teams is most likely to be able to make the most of this advantage?
I will be bold and say that it is unlikely to be Alpine or Williams. New regulations or not, they are still relatively weak teams. They now have a good chance to move up the pecking order but are very unlikely to the be building cars that will compete with the likes of reigning back-to-back Constructors’ Champions, McLaren, or multiple Constructors’ Champions, Mercedes.
After Mercedes aced the big Turbo Hybrid regulations from 2014 onwards, winning the title every year for seven years, the FIA changed the rules and made the power unit manufacturers supply their customer teams, with exactly the same specification as they themselves were running.
Up to then, Mercedes would supply their customers with last year’s spec, which was not as good. Now, it is a level playing field in terms of the power units’ performance.
Dimensions Key
Where the actual manufacturers have an advantage over their customers, is that they know well ahead of their customers the dimensions of the physical product. When it comes to designing the chassis, you want to know exactly how much the unit weighs and what are its dimensions.
You then build the chassis around the power unit, optimising the car’s centre of gravity, getting the cooling systems neatly packaged around it and the outer body work as tightly packaged as possible.
All the way through the design process, a team that manufactures their own chassis and power unit have the various design offices working together. They know what is what, and where it goes.
A team like Alpine will design the chassis and then fit the power unit into it. After that, they can refine things to get the optimum package, but they are a step or two behind. Even the current Constructors’ Champions, McLaren, will be disadvantaged by not knowing the exact power unit details until later in the design process than Mercedes.
Aerodynamics
Of course, having a power advantage is only half the trick. Aerodynamic performance is a big part of the car’s lap times, and the regulations around them have changed as well. More of that in the full preview. Remember, I am trying to keep this brief.
For the last four seasons, the majority of the cars’ downforce has been generated from the floor under the car. They were very intricate designs which we never really got to see.
But from this year, we are back to designs that mean the bulk of the downforce comes more from what we can see, the wings and the body work, but there is still a bit of the car that generates a lot of downforce that we can’t really see, and that is the diffuser.
Diffuser
If you have been following F1 for as long as me, you are an old git, but an old git that will remember the Double Diffuser that won Brawn GP the 2009 World Championship, and controversy over a thing called the Blown Diffuser. That was when exhaust gases were used to improve the diffusers performance.
The Diffuser is an aerodynamic device situated under the rear of the car. It is a downforce generator which pushes the rear wheels unto the track, giving more grip and improving cornering speeds.
The rear wheels are where the power is put down and getting the rear of the car sorted is very important. You do not want a loose rear end. You want the rear wheels to be stable under braking, predictable in fast corners and good at traction out of the corners.
Things Can Change
We have not yet seen all the cars in the flesh, and what we have seen is still subject to development and change, but when Mercedes did their 200km ‘filming day’ at Silverstone (which went flawlessly by the way), photographs showed a hole, or slot, on the bodywork at the rear of the car, just where the diffuser is.
I am not an engineer, but those with knowledge of these things are getting quite excited about this slot. It has the potential to power up the diffuser, and generate more downforce, the holy grail of F1 car design. It has even been given a name! The Slotted Diffuser.
You can read all about it, and lots more interesting stuff, by following @scarbstech.bsky.social.
The Slotted Diffuser may be illegal. But more about that in the full preview, I am trying to be brief. Even if it is legal (and it probably is), the other teams can copy it. Unlike the power units, you can develop the aerodynamics throughout the season, budget cap permitting.
However, copying someone else’s design is not easy. You have to work out the concept of why it works, then design your own product and then try and make it work on your car, which will have different bodywork. To make it work effectively, you may well have to redesign other parts of the car. All that takes time, a lot of time, and resources, resources that are limited.
Summary
It looks like six teams are going to have a power advantage over the other five. The Mercedes powered cars and the Red Bull Ford powered teams, and that should be all season long.
It looks like we may have a new diffuser story and it has only been seen on the Mercedes, so far.
Things are pointing to Mercedes coming out of the blocks in very good shape. But of course, we haven’t seen any real testing yet and somebody else may come out with their own silver bullet, but there reasons to believe that Mercedes are going to be on pole position, metaphorically, and maybe literally when the real business starts.
I am trying to keep this brief remember, and the reasoning will be in the full preview next month, but in my humble opinion, it is worth backing George Russell for the 2026 Formula 1 World Drivers Championship, even before testing has started.
The cat may not be fully out of the bag just yet, but Russell’s odds are shortening. He was 4.25 yesterday and today he is best priced 4.00 and only with the one firm. The odds won’t last and if I am right Russell will go off as Championship favourite, a position currently held by Verstappen. I am not going in big as we are still in the pre-testing phase.
