2026 F1 Season Preview

Now, it’s time for the one you’ve all been waiting for. It is the dawn of a new era in Formula 1 and our expert James Punt has written an in-depth 2026 F1 season preview. He explains all the regulation changes and weighs up the prospects of every team and driver. So, sit down, put on your seatbelt and enjoy the ride…

2026 F1 Season: A New Era

The 2026 Formula 1 season will see the biggest regulation changes ever seen. We are now starting with what is effectively a blank sheet of paper. Last year’s form counts for nowt as far as the cars are concerned.

Everyone now starts from scratch and just like the big changes seen in 2014, there will be winners and losers. Getting it right, or as right as possible, is crucial. In 2014 it was Mercedes who got it right.

The regulation changes back then where primarily engine based. Out went the old internal combustion engines, and in came incredibly complex hybrid ‘power units’. Energy recovery systems made up of heat recovery systems, kinetic energy recovery systems, a return to turbo assisted engines, along with a downsized internal combustion engine, all meant huge investments from the engine manufacturers.

Early Bird Got The Worm

Mercedes had invested more, earlier, and got it right. They held a performance advantage for years and this enabled the team to rack up eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships and seven Drivers’ Championships. It really wasn’t good for the sport.

Such was Mercedes’ dominance that the FIA changed the rules for power unit suppliers, forcing them to provide their customers with exactly the same spec power units as Mercedes themselves were running, and not year old technology. That helped level the playing field.

So big were the 2014 changes, and so complex the power units, that we had great Formula 1 engine builders like Honda and Renault, just not able to build competitive power units. If you didn’t have a Mercedes PU, you were making up the numbers.

Cross Pollination

Eventually as the technology matured, and with personnel changing teams, this cross-pollinated technology. Honda eventually joined the party. Ferrari did at times, if with dubious legality, but it was the beginning of the end for Renault as a Formula 1 engine supplier.

In 2022 we had the introduction of new aero regulations, and the start of the Ground Effect era. That shifted F1 away from a power-based formula to an aero performance formula. It wasn’t quite the same magnitude of the 2014 regulation changes, but it was enough to shake up the pecking order.

Mercedes’ power based dominance was gone. They failed to the master the dark arts of the ground effect cars. They picked up race wins and finished second in the Constructors’ Championship a couple of times, but they were no longer the gold standard. Red Bull, with Adrian Newey designing the cars, dominated the first two years, before McLaren won back-to-back Constructors’ Championships in 2024 and 2025.

Just when the various teams’ performance levels were converging, it was time to throw everything in the bin and start from scratch.

New Start

The new regulations for 2026 are not just about a new era of power units, but the ground effect regulations are gone as well. It is a new power unit era AND a new aero regulation era, …and oh yes, the fuel is new as well, and the tyres are smaller.

The cars will still have four wheels, a steering wheel and Pirelli tyres, but after that, everything changes. We even have a completely new team, Cadillac, joining the line up.

Audi will formally enter under their own name having taken over Sauber a few years ago. They will be building their own power unit, while Cadillac will be using the Ferrari power unit. Renault power units are no more, and Honda will be exclusively supplying Aston Martin, leaving Red Bull to build their own in partnership with Ford.

2026 F1 Season: What are the New Regulations?

I am not going to cover the lot here as that would fill a huge tome (the new regulations are said to stretch to 247 pages!), but I will try and give a flavour of what is going on.

Power Units

The 1.6 litre V6 internal combustion engine will carryover from the old era, its power output will be reduced from 850 BHP to 540 BHP. The heat recovery energy system (MGU – H) has been completely removed. This was done to accommodate Audi. They would not have entered F1 if they had to design a MGU – H.

The kinetic energy recovery system has been enlarged to provide 470 BHP, up from 160BHP. The fuel used will now be advanced sustainable fuels. Fuel flow will be limited and the aim is for the fuel limit to be just 70kg.

In a nutshell, the new power units will be powered by more electrical energy, recovered largely from braking, and less from burning fuel. It is Formula’s way of remaining a hybrid power formula, rather than fully electric, such as Formula E. They will be burning nice cuddly fuels and none of that nasty petrol stuff, much less of it.

Potential Problems

It all sounds quite straightforward, but teams started to identify potential problems back in 2025. The main one being the energy recovery system. Some have suggested that the power units will be using more electrical power than they can generate, especially on circuits with fewer braking events.

The car will be halfway down a straight, at say Monza, and run out of electrical power. That is effectively half the power produced. With few braking events around that track, the power units will not be able to harvest enough kinetic energy to go full pelt on the straights, which would be a bit rubbish.

There is also the worry that we could see a repeat of the 2014 situation where Mercedes mastered the new turbo-hybrid regulations. One manufacturer producing a significantly better power unit would make the sport less competitive, especially if it was only supplying one team, such as Honda at Aston Martin. Such are the pitfalls of major regulation changes.

The Cars

In recent years the cars have become longer, wider and heavier. All that makes racing, especially on narrower, old-school tracks, more difficult. There just isn’t enough room for these big cars.

The new regulations will see the wheelbase shortened by 10cm, and the width also by 10cm. Not a huge change, but better than a poke in the eye with a stick. The minimum weight has been reduced by 30kg. The tyres width will also be reduced by 3 cm for the rears and 2.5 for the fronts. They do look noticeably smaller, and they do look good.

Aerodynamics

This is another big area of change. Gone is the old DRS. That was introduced to help with overtaking but gradually became less effective with the ground effect cars.

The floor of the cars will now be heavily regulated to reduce the amount of downforce generated, effectively ending the ground effect era. Most of the ‘lost’ downforce will be replaced by moveable aerodynamic devices. The reduction of downforce has been watered down from the initial proposals. The original idea was to reduce overall downforce by a whopping 40%, but that was reduced to just 15%, on the grounds of safety.

Moveable aerodynamic devices were once the work of the devil. Every designer tried to sneak in ‘legal’ movable aerodynamic parts, and other teams sought to get them banned. Now the FIA have decided to let the designers have moveable aerodynamic parts to end the silly dance.

Overtake Mode

The DRS is to be replaced by an ‘overtake mode’. This is a combination of deploying stored electrical energy, and the deployment of the moveable aerodynamic devices.

The moveable aerodynamic devices are basically a front wing that droops down and a rear wing that flattens out (or opens a gap in the rear wing much like DRS), both reducing drag and increasing straight line speed.

Like the old DRS, the car has to be within one second of the car in front before the overtake, or boost mode can be activated, but the driver can select it at any time during qualifying.

Other Regulation Changes

As is normal, there are changes to help with safety. The front impact structures will be improved, as will side impact protections. The roll hoop strength will be improved.

The driver cooling vests that were optional in 2025, will be mandatory for all races where the FIA declare a heat risk.

There were three preseason tests allowed in 2026. Obviously, with so many changes, the teams needed to get more testing under their belts to iron out any bugs, or at least compile a snag list of problems to be fixed. The first test was a private five-day test, with no press present, in Barcelona at the end of January, with two three days tests, both in Bahrain, in mid-February.

The Rumour Mill

When we have such big regulation changes the rumour mill inevitably goes into overdrive. Some of the rumours will have substance, and other will be complete BS.

We now have five power unit manufactures. Mercedes, Ferrari, Honda, Red Bull Ford and Audi. The rumour mill around who has done the best job on the new generation power units is worth investigating as it may well point us in the right direction as to which team, or teams, will start this new era with an advantage, and those that may be on the back foot.

2026 F1 Season: Power Unit Prospects

Mercedes

They are the biggest players as they also supply power units for McLaren, Alpine and Williams. If they come up with the best power unit, at least there will be four different teams getting the benefit. It would not be the one team show that we had back in 2014.

Mercedes nailed the last big regulation change regarding power units. They knew a year or so before the new regulations came into force that they had done a great job. It was the main reason that Lewis Hamilton was able to be poached from McLaren.

Mercedes were not a particularly good team before 2013, the year that Hamilton joined the team. He was persuaded by Niki Lauda, on the promise that they would have the class leading power unit from 2014.

Prime Position

There is a consensus that Mercedes are in prime position to nail this new set of regulations. The rumour mill has a few new buzzwords, and in Mercedes case they are ‘compression ratio trick’. The trick being to be able to produce more power from the internal combustion engine, which in turn charges the ERS more effectively.

Talk is of around 10-15BHPmore power than the others. Fuel efficiency is also said the be class leading and that means less weight in the car in terms of fuel required. That in turn improves performance.

Loophole

They have found a loophole in the regulations. The rules say the compression ratio in each cylinder must be 16:1, when measured at ‘ambient temperature’. Clearly, these rules were not written by an engineer.

The clever engineers at Mercedes have found a way to have a compression ratio of 16:1, at ambient temperatures, but 18:1 (better) when hot, i.e. when racing. Howls of anguish from their rivals, but the power units meet the regulations as written. As such, they are legal.

Mercedes’ rivals could try and have the compression ratio trick banned, but more of that later.

Red Bull Ford

I was very sceptical about the chances of Red Bull and Ford to come up with a competitive power unit. Red Bull have never built engines before and Ford have been out of the F1 business for some time. These very complex modern hybrid power units completely flummoxed Renault and took the mighty Honda years to master. Why should Ford be able to hit the bullseye in year one of the new regulations?

But then you consider that Red Bull have had the Honda power unit in their cars for years and it ended the old regulations with the best power unit out there, or at least on a par with Mercedes. It would be naive to think that they would not have taken every opportunity to learn as much as possible whilst running the Honda unit.

Power Trains

On top of that is Red Bull’s recruitment drive for Red Bull Power Trains. There is a very unglamorous building in Milton Keynes that has housed this division of Red Bull for a few years now.

Red Bull were flirting with Porsche as a PU supplier, as Honda were cooling on F1. They were supposed to lose the Honda power units a couple of years ago and were planning to build their own units as a result (the Porsche partnership never happened). Honda were persuaded to change their minds, and the own build project was put on hold.

Honda agreed to work on assembly and maintenance on the previous generation of PU’s, but as those regulations were settled, they carried out no R&D work. That left staff surplus to requirements at Honda. Some were redeployed to other parts of the company, and a number went to work for Red Bull Powertrains.

Poaching Staff

Red Bull also poached a lot of staff from Mercedes power unit division, Mercedes High Performance Powertrains (Mercedes HPP). It is said that half of the workforce at Red Bull powertrains are ex-Mercedes (and a fair number from Honda). They would not be able to bring the blueprints with them, but they would have known what Mercedes were doing, including the ‘compression ratio trick’.

The rumour mill has Red Bull Ford in a similar bracket to Mercedes, so they may well have pulled off the switch from Honda to their own power units and have a competitive package.

It may be more realistic to call the new Red Bull Ford power unit, the Red Bull Mercedes Honda power unit, because there is a lot more of their DNA in it than there is Ford.

The Losers

The fact that Ferrari, Audi and Honda wrote a joint letter to the FIA regarding the Compression Ratio matter, suggests that they are on the back foot, and worried.

It is normal practice in F1, that if a team spots a loophole that they can exploit, they will approach the FIA and ask for clarification regarding their plans to exploit said loophole.

This is done on a confidential basis. No team is going to go down a (expensive) development path on a whim. But if the FIA have given them the nod, then they can proceed, safe in the knowledge that their work will not be declared illegal when the racing starts.

Honda

The rumour mill had Honda in a spot of bother. Testing now has that as a LOT of bother. Not only are they one of the teams to have missed the ‘compression ratio trick’, but they are struggling with overall performance and reliability.

Honda are also said to be reluctant to throw the kitchen sink at the project. The cost cap is a constraint, but Honda are maybe just not fully invested in F1 as they once were. They have also lost experienced staff to Red Bull Power Trains.

They didn’t have any development work done on these new units until Aston Martin convinced them to return to F1. Effectively, Honda are in the same boat as say, Audi. Indeed, Audi may have a bit of a head start. Honda are just not as prepared as Mercedes, and even, ironically, Red Bull Ford.

Challenging Times

Honda Racing Corporation president Koji Watanabe said at Honda’s engine launch event in Tokyo, that “It’s difficult. It’s challenging. The Sakura factory is working hard on the reliability testing, and working on a bench testing, and we want to really bring it onto in-vehicle testing. We are running on a very short timeline, but we want to make sure that we are fully prepared for it.” That doesn’t sound great.

Former Mercedes power unit guru, Andy Cowell, was poached by Aston Martin a couple of years ago and was the team’s CEO last year, before being downgraded to Chief Strategy Officer for 2026. His job is now to work closely with Honda to get the chassis, power unit and fuel supplier (the old Honda units worked with Exxon Mobil previously, now it is Aramco) to be successfully married.

However, his demotion made me wonder how Cowell’s relationship with Aston Martin is? I assume his renumeration remains the same, but he has been replaced as ‘the boss’ by Adrian Newey, who is a brilliant designer/engineer, but he has never been in a CEO role before. Cowell was reported to be ‘seething’ and it is rumoured that he will leave the team during the season.

Audi

Coming into the new regulation changes cold, at least from the power unit point of view. The old Sauber team have been building moderately successful F1 cars for many years but never built engines/power units.

Audi are a successful engine builder in other racing formulae and have experience of electric power systems and internal combustion units, but this is their first tilt at a Formula 1 spec power unit. It would be a bit optimistic to think that they will have a class leading product from day one.

Audi were the first team to get a 2026 car on to a track (for a filming day) and admitted that it didn’t go well. “Our power train and power unit are not yet driveable as they should be but that’s all normal.”

“It’s not unexpected so I can say even the filming day maybe was not a successful day. But it was a positive one because we face problems, but those problems were useful for us to further learn and further prepare for the start of the season and the next test at the end of the month in Barcelona.”

That is likely to be the tone from Audi in the early months of the season. They know they are not going to be competing for big points in year one. Building a brand new F1 power unit from scratch is a major engineering challenge. Making a competitive one has proved impossible for others.

Foul Play?

With just a few days before the first private test was due to begin. The FIA gathered all the teams together to discuss this ‘Compression trick’ issue.

The three power unit manufacturers who have missed the loophole, were invoking Article C1.5 of F1’s technical regulations which states that F1 cars must comply with the rules “at all times during a competition”.

I.E. They believe that the race is part of that competition, and any technology that is using thermal expansion during a race, to allow for better performance, is in breach of said Article C 1.5.

The wording of the regulations, specifically the word ‘ambient’ was a late addition. It was put in to prevent a late challenge to the rules at the start of the season. If the power units are compliant at ‘ambient’ temperatures, that is it. What happens when the units are running hot is irrelevant.

Catch Up

This meeting between the teams and the FIA was not going to change the regulations before the start of the season, but it was an attempt by those that had missed the trick, to be allowed to play catch up ASAP. Perhaps a mid-season regulation change as we saw with the flexi-wing business last year. That is as good as they could hope for.

There is a provision in the regulations for power unit manufacturers to be able to carry out improvement works to their products if they are way off the pace. The power units are supposed to be run to the specification that they start the season with, for the whole 24 races.

However, as these are completely new regulations, the FIA can allow a manufacturer who is really struggling to redesign their units to allow them to play catch up and not be humiliated.

Rumbling On

This matter has been rumbling on behind the scenes for weeks now. The power units have to be officially homogenated on March 1st. The designs fixed and locked in for the season.

There had been a tentative agreement that Mercedes had until the summer break to run the power units as designed, but after the break the power units would have to be tested not just at ambient temperature, but at 130 degrees as well. Mercedes were said to be comfortable with this. Probably as it wasn’t going to affect them very much, if at all.

The latest rumour, with just two days to go before homogenisation, is that the previous plan was been ditched. A new plan is now on the table, which appears to limit the potential advantage that the Mercedes-AMG Petronas Formula One Team may have gained from developing its 2026 power unit.

New Compromise

Rather than waiting until August, a new compromise is expected to bring forward the implementation date to June 1st 2026. The revised solution introduces a two-stage approach. From 1st June 2026 until the end of the season, compression ratios will be measured in both cold and hot conditions. From 2027 onwards, measurements will only be taken at operating temperature.

This change will effectively neutralise Mercedes’ suspected compression ratio trick in the long term. While Mercedes may gain some benefit in 2026 from testing in both conditions, this will only be for this year. In 2027, the playing field would be levelled. Everyone can have use the same trick and have more powerful engines.

This is the kind of compromise that I expected. Mercedes get a season to reap the benefits of their clever trick but to prevent them dominating like they did from 2014, the other manufacturers would be allowed to change their units to catch up. But, we will just have to wait and see what the final plan will be.

2026 F1 Season: Team Profiles

McLaren

I was glad that Norris got to win last year’s Championship, and not just because I had tipped him to do so. He is a great driver, not as good as Verstappen, but he had a good chance and took it, just. If he had missed out, he may never have got a better chance. He was in the right car, at the right time, which is the golden rule of how you win a Formula 1 World Championship.

McLaren had come from the brink of financial collapse a few years ago, to win back-to-back Constructors’ Championships, and last year’s Drivers’ Championship. Just as they established themselves as the team to beat, the regulations they won under have been binned, and they have to start again, if not from absolute scratch, pretty near it. Mercedes had eight years before regulation changes ended their rule at the top.

Mercedes Power Units

At least still having Mercedes power units is half the battle for McLaren. They should still have a fully competitive engine to work with. It is now ‘just’ a matter of mastering the new chassis regulations and the moveable aerodynamics. Get that right and Norris is in a position to defend his title, or Piastri to win his first.

Continuity is good in terms of personnel, but they face as big a challenge with the new regulations as anyone else. McLaren did the right thing in 2025 and didn’t upgrade their car right up to the end of the season, as Red Bull were doing. It was a game of chicken, and they nearly lost, but they did spend their resources on this year’s car, as much as possible, whilst still doing the double in 2025.

Norris No Good Thing

I wouldn’t say Norris is the good thing he was last year (he was a 2.75 shot 12 months ago) but his odds for 2026 reflect that (10.00), and it is hard not to have him in the mix.

The same goes for Piastri. The Aussie will have been gutted to miss out last year, and he did fold quite badly when push came to shove, but that was only his third season in F1. He has improved season by season, and being in a close, three-way fight for the Championship was good experience for a driver who is unlikely to have peaked yet.

The one thing that counts against both McLaren drivers is that the team will not favour one driver over the other. I know some Aussie fans will say that the team were biased towards Norris, but others will say that they were not biased enough. It is easier being the clear number one driver in a contending team, than being given an equal chance with your teammate.

Surprise

McLaren surprised many people with news that they would not run their car on the first day of the first private shakedown test in Barcelona. Speculation was that they are not ready, the car is late, McLaren are in trouble. That has been the case in the past.

In the first year or two of the ground effect regulations, they were not prepared for the opening races. But they are a better team now. They were lacking enough engineers back then.

This ‘news’ may been overhyped as while the ‘private’ Barcelona test lasts for five days, teams were only allowed to run on a maximum of three of the five days. Missing day one, or day two, was not the end of the world.

Dyno Testing

McLaren said that they were just not desperate to run. The car had been sent to Austria for dyno testing, to sign off on systems using better facilities than McLaren have got at home (I thought McLaren were finished updating their state of the art factory, but clearly it isn’t quite SOTA). That still doesn’t explain why it was not ready for the shakedown test on day one.

It is not unheard of for a team to develop their car right up to the very last minute in order to have it as well developed as possible before testing, but this is the first time the teams get to do proper testing for a brand new car and with the biggest regulation changes we have ever seen.

Data is king when it comes to learning about the new cars and how everything is working, or not, as the case may be. Every mile matters, even if the full package is not quite ready. McLaren did not even do a ‘filming day’. Those 200km runs are not full on tests, but they are still used to shakedown the basic systems. They have value.

Part Of The Plan

The team have said that this was always part of their plan. ‘We wanted to give as much time as possible for development, because every day of development brings performance’.

McLaren have also said that the car that they do test with, will largely be the car they race at Melbourne. Normally teams will turn up with quite a few developments made to their cars before the first race, but McLaren are going to take it steady, and that I can see the benefit of.

It is a long season and there is a cost cap. There is a lot to learn about these new cars and power units. Better to develop smarter than to spend your development budget too early with limited understanding.

McLaren are taking a different approach to the rest. Either they are very confident, or they are not being entirely honest.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Lando Norris – 11.00 Oscar Piastri 15.00. Constructors’ Odds – 4.33

Mercedes

The power unit rumours are generally positive for Mercedes, as trailed earlier in the preview. There has been a brain drain of talent away from Mercedes to Red Bull (mostly) in recent years, but they seem to have had good succession planning and have moved on successfully.

I should point out that there is a big difference between what Mercedes were able to do under the 2014 regulations, and this reset. The cost cap. It was reported that Mercedes spent a small fortune developing the turbo hybrid power units, because they could. Now, the budget for building this generation of power units is limited. Around 10% of what they spent in 2014. They have not been able to spend their way to a dominant product, but neither has anyone else.

Parting Company

The team will part company with their director of car design, John Owen, in the middle of the new season. Time for a career break blah, blah. He has been with the team since it was the Honda works team, before briefly being Brawn, then being taken over by Mercedes. Very nearly a twenty-year stretch.

He had a hand in all of their Championship winning cars, but also in the rarely fully competitive ground effect era cars. It is not quite like losing an Adrian Newey, and he has left when the car was finished and there is a successor in place for continuity purposes.

Interesting Designs

Talking about Mercedes’ car designs is interesting. Their period of dominance was largely power unit related. The big regulation changes of 2014 put Mercedes well ahead of the pack, and for a number of years. Obviously, the car itself wasn’t bad, but as their power advantage was whittled away so their grip on the championships was loosened.

The last four years, under the ground effect regulations, were difficult for Mercedes. It took them a long time to get rid of the porpoising and they never really fully understood their cars in this period. Mercedes still won races and finished 3/2/4/2 in the Constructors’ Championships, but it was never a realistic title contender.

New Beginning

Now, there is a clean sheet of paper. The ground effect designs are gone and we have a new era of power units, chassis and aerodynamics. This gives Mercedes an opportunity to have a renewed power advantage with their ‘combustion ratio trick’, and get rid of the ground effect limitations which were holding them back in recent years.

The moveable aerodynamics are new to everyone, but the under floors are moving back to the pre 2022 regs, more familiar territory. Mercedes are moving out of a discomfort zone, back into a comfort zone.

It is early days, very early days. The cars that we have seen in the filming days and testing are not the finished articles, but Mercedes have shown an aero piece which caught the eye of experts. The early nick name for it, as it may become ‘a thing’, is a slotted diffuser. I am not an engineer, but the summation of the benefits of the design is to generate more downforce. The holy Grail of F1.

More Downforce

Air is being guided down the sidepods and into this slot and into the diffuser in order to generate more rear downforce. A sort of supercharger for the diffuser. It looks to be a very clever design, but the big question is, as always, is it legal?

We have seen various tricks to improve the effectiveness of diffusers in the past. There was the famous ‘Double Diffuser’ introduced on the Brawn GP car in 2009. It was so effective it put the Brawn ahead of the pack, and for long enough for them to win the World Championship.

The other teams tried to have it banned, failed, and then they had to work out how to build their own. Exhaust gases have been used to boost the diffuser performance to give us the ‘Blown Diffuser’. Are we now looking at the next diffuser row/breakthrough with the ‘Slotted Diffuser’?

Compression Ratio Trick

I go back to the ‘Compression Ratio Trick’. Teams usually seek the FIA’s opinion as to whether their ideas are legal, before proceeding with a line of development, and this may be another case here. It is another classic case of new regulations leading to new engineering ideas seeking an advantage.

Competitive engineering is what F1 is all about. Some other teams arrived at the tests with their own version and it is unlikely that this feature is not a game changer, but a nice touch.

Mercedes retain the same driver line up, with George Russell leading the charge and young Antonelli still learning the ropes, but he had turned a corner at the end of 2025, after a sticky mid-season run. There are good reasons to think that Mercedes will be right in the Championship mix, both for the Drivers’ Championship and Constructors’ Championship.

2026 F1 Season Odds: George Russell – 3.25 Kimi Antonelli – 11.00 Constructors Odds – 2.38

Red Bull

A lack of continuity is a big concern when looking at Red Bull. Last year they parted company with long term team principal Christian Horner. They went through two number two drivers in 2025 and have a new one for 2026. Long time ‘adviser’, Helmut Marko has also gone. Honda have jumped into bed with Aston Martin and Red Bull are left building a new relationship and power unit with Ford.

And there is the small matter of Adrian Newey having left the team last March. This year’s Red Bull will not feature any of his designs. Losing the best F1 designer in the business is not easy to replace.

Newey is just one of many faces who have left Red Bull for pastures new. Their head of strategy, Will Courtney, has already started work at McLaren and a big chunk of their top engineers have gone.

Chief Designer Gone

Red Bull’s Chief Designer Craig Skinner left the Formula 1 team with immediate effect just before the second Bahrain test. He had been with the team for twenty years. Rats deserting a sinking ship? All of these high-profile departures are certainly a negative in terms of continuity.

On the plus side, they still have Max Verstappen as their number one driver. He is the best of the best, which is a great asset to have, but a hard one to keep. It makes perfect sense for Verstappen to stay at Red Bull for 2026, so that he can see the lay of the land under the new regulations. By mid-summer, he will know who has the best package, and he will have the pick of the crop.

Another plus was that Red Bull did manage to engineer their way out of a sticky patch after Newey left. The 2025 car was struggling and the talk was that without its creator, the team couldn’t develop it. But they did, and it allowed Verstappen to get within a whisker of an unlikely World Championship win.

Limited Resources Wasted?

The downside of that turnaround was that the team spent limited resources on the 2025 car, at the expense of the more important 2026 car. Yes, their engineers proved they were up to the job, sans Newey, but it was far from an ideal preparation for this, all important season.

It is hard to be too enthusiastic about Red Bull’s chances in 2026. There are a lot of changes to get used to, and not just the new regulations. Continuity is extremely poor and they are leaving Verstappen to do the heavy lifting. He will be joined by the talented Isack Hadjar in the second car. That will be Verstappen’s fourth teammate in the last three years.

Red Bull only finished third in last year’s Constructors’ Championship, despite winning eight Grand Prix. Are they too reliant on Verstappen to be seriously considered for the Constructors Championship?

How Hadjar, in only his second season in F1, will cope with the hardest job in the business, remains to be seen, but there are grounds for concern, given the fact that nobody else has manged the task of being this teammate for some years.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Max Verstappen – 4.33 Isack Hadjar 151.00 Constructors Odds 9.00

Ferrari

Where do you start with Ferrari? Perhaps with a look back at their record since the last major regulation shake up in 2014. They are a storied team, the longest surviving Formula 1 team, having been there from the start in 1950. They are the most successful Formula 1 team in history, but the emphasis is on history.

Ferrari have won 16 Constructors’ Championships and 15 Drivers’ Championships. However, since 2014, they have not won a title of any kind. They have finished 2nd in the Constructors’ Championship six times, 3rd three times, 4th twice and 6th once. They have an average finish of 3.33 in the Constructors’ Championship this decade, so the trend is downward.

Biggest Team

Bearing in mind they are arguably the biggest team in the sport, and before the cost cap introduction, the biggest spenders in the sport, that is a disappointing record. Indeed, they have not won a title of any sort since 2007.

In that time, they have had great drivers and plenty of smart people in the team, but they just can’t get the best out of what they have. I can see no reason why that is going to change.

Their continuity is decent for once, and they have resisted sacking the team principal, Fred Vassuer, for the season ahead, but the sword of Damocles is always hanging heavy above whomever is the boss at Ferrari.

That may be part of the problem. There is a fear of failure, yet failure is their currency. Blame must be apportioned at the earliest opportunity, heads must roll, and that is not a healthy working environment.

Hamilton Woes

In 2025, Ferrari signed up Lewis Hamilton. The seven-time World Champion was expected to show the team what was needed, to bring some positive energy and lift morale. In the end, Hamilton ended up as a near basket case. He hated his first season at Ferrari and wasn’t shy about telling people.

Hamilton came from a very successful Mercedes team. A team that knew how to win, how to maximise their performances and were generally very shrewd operators. Yes, they couldn’t cope with the Ground Effect regulations, but they could still win races and offer some hope. Hamilton left for the glamour and history of Ferrari (and no doubt many million other reasons), but he found himself driving for the Keystone Kops.

Both Hamilton and Charles Leclerc felt ignored by the team. They had suggestions as to what was needed to improve the car, but that came to nothing. Hamilton had knowledge of how a super successful team does things, but Ferrari knew better. Which begs the question why buy a dog and bark yourself?

New Race Engineer

Hamilton will have a new race engineer for 2026. His relationship with his old one, Riccardo Adami, was strained at times, but is that just another body thrown under the bus?

It seems that Ferrari are making a bit of a hash of the Hamilton race engineer issue. Going into the first Bahrain test, Hamilton still had no new race engineer. Carlo Santi replaced Adami in the role, but Hamilton has indicated that this may only be an interim measure. He is expecting to get a permanent appointment ‘a few races into the season’.

That is far from ideal, and he has said that it is detrimental. The driver/race engineer relationship is an important one. The two need to understand each other at a near telepathic level, and that takes time. Hamilton is on the back foot in that department.

Ferrari is a place where careers have gone to die in the past. Vettel tried and failed to win the title for them, as did Alonso. Charles Leclerc has matured into a top-flight driver, but he is floundering. I have my doubts that Verstappen himself could win them a championship. At the very least, it would be his greatest achievement if he ever did.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Charles Leclerc – 6.50 Lewis Hamilton 8.00 Constructors Odds 5.00

Aston Martin

Another team that were late for the Barcelona shakedown, but they did get some running in the final two days (just 65 laps). The car attracted a lot of attention, as all of Adrian Newey’s cars do. It was sporting eye catching design features.

However, Newey said that the rest of the field got a four-month head start on his new design. The teams were allowed to start wind tunnel work on the new cars from January 1st 2025, but Newey didn’t join Aston Martin until March 1st, and even then, the new state of the art Aston Martin wind tunnel wasn’t ready to run until April.

That meant they were playing catch up and hence they were late for the first shakedown. There are strong rumours that the real reason was that the Honda power unit wasn’t ready, or maybe it was both?

Aggressive Design

Paddock watchers have called the car an aggressive interpretation of the rules. It has features not seen elsewhere and it is very tightly packaged, but Newey has said that the car that races in Australia will be very different.

There is a lot of noise about the Mercedes power unit and its legality, but Aston Martin parted company with Mercedes at the end of 2025 and signed up with Honda as an exclusive power unit supplier (Aston Martin will also be building their own gearbox and suspension for the very first time, a not inconsiderable undertaking). Will that be a decision that they will rue?

First Test

At the first Bahrain test, in much hotter conditions than we had in Barcelona, the Aston Martin was sporting extra cooling vents high up at the rear of the car. This suggests that they are worried about the power unit overheating.

Where they are sited suggests that it was not expected. It looks like the vents were a late solution to a problem, that being the Honda PU running too hot, or the bodywork was too tightly packaged to allow it to cool sufficiently.

The car has been slow on the straights, further suggesting that the PU is a problem. The car never exceeded 300km/h on the straights. It wasn’t being run with full revs. It doesn’t really matter if you have a super-duper Adrian Newy design if the PU is overheating so much that the car’s bodywork has to be opened up to cool it.

Double Whammy

If it is also underpowered then that is a double whammy and very hard to fix. Alonso had a bad relationship with Honda when he was with McLaren in the early days of the turbo hybrid power units. “GP2 Engines” was his famous critique of the Honda back then. Are Honda about to rain on his parade again?

Lance Stroll was downbeat during testing, talking about being 4.00-4.50 seconds off the pace, and that it is not all power unit related.

Their testing ended in embarrassing style, with just six laps run on the final day. Honda had run out of spare parts for the power units.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Fernando Alonso – 67.00 Lance Stroll 401.00 Constructors Odds 51.00

Haas

Now called TGR Haas (Toyota Gazoo Racing). The team’s relationship with Toyota has gradually been increased and Toyota Gazoo Racing is the motorsport division of the Japanese car manufacturer. They bring the team technical expertise, such as engineers, but without Toyota getting directly involved, for now.

2025 saw Haas getting a new team principal, Ayao Komatsu, and his engineering background was a huge boost for the team, which had previously been led by the potty mouthed Guenther Steiner.

This was now a much more serious Formula 1 team, but still a small one. They continue to run the Ferrari power units and outsource a lot of work. As such they are never going to get amongst the big boys, but they aim to punch above their weight.

Same Driver Lineup

2025 also saw a double driver change at the team, and Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman remain in place for 2026. Bearman made a good impression in his full debut season, albeit with a few howlers thrown in. Ocon was not so good and the team have said that he will have to raise his game in 2026.

This will be Haas’ eleventh season in F1 and they have only finished higher than eighth twice. They were fifth in 2018, and seventh in 2024.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Oliver Bearman – 401.00 Esteban Ocon Constructors Odds – 251.00

Alpine

In 2025 the team made the difficult decision to close the Renault power unit division and have turned to Mercedes to supply their engines (and gearboxes). It was hugely unpopular with the Renault workforce, but they had failed to build a competitive product in the turbo-hybrid era and it was costing a lot of money to be mediocre. Having a Mercedes unit can only be a positive.

Another of the team’s problems was the revolving door system of management recruitment. They changed team principals like Nottingham Forrest hire and fire football managers. They need a period of consolidation.

Gasly The Main Man

Their driver line up of Pierre Gasly and Franco Colapinto remains. Gasly scored all of the team’s points in 2025 and is a good driver who can take his chances. Colapinto made a good initial impact when he joined Williams in 2024, but then he just went on to make big impacts, with walls and such like. He hasn’t scored a point in his last twenty-two races.

This team had been midfield runners in their guise as Alpine, but 2025 saw them finish bottom of the Constructors’ Championship. The only way is up and simply having Mercedes power units is a great start, but we shouldn’t expect miracles.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Pierre Gasly – 151.00 Franco Colapinto – 501.00 Constructors Odds – 67.00

Williams

Another team that is trying to comeback from the dead. They have had new owners for a few years now and investments have been made in infrastructure and personnel. The results? Mixed.

Their driver line up of Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz is a strong one. They run the Mercedes Power units which is another plus. Their problem has been a historic lack of investment. Under the old Williams family ownership, the team had a ‘make do and mend’ approach to infrastructure. Everything was run into the ground and the team couldn’t dine out on past glories forever.

The new investors brought in ex-Mercedes man James Vowles to be team principal and he has faced a huge task to bring the facilities and personnel up to scratch, or even approaching it.

Lack Of Progress

I am not sure how long the team can blame a lack of progress on the previous owners, but that is still the case. The 2026 car was a late birth. The team missed the Barcelona shake down test. They said that the huge regulation changes meant that just couldn’t get everything ready in time, given their still below standard facilities.

It wasn’t a good look for a team that stopped development of their 2025 car very early, so that they could focus on the 2026 car.

Filming Days

The team finally got their two ‘filming days’ completed before the first Bahrain test and they proved to be very reliable, setting the joint highest amount of laps completed. Their performance was unremarkable, but they just needed to get a lot of data gathered and they did just that.

The car is said to be overweight, by as much as 20kg. That alone is going to cost a lot of performance. It is said that the car failed crash impact tests and had to be strengthened, which added weight to the car. The team will have to put the car on a diet before they can reach their full potential.

It has not been a good start for the FW48. Late, overweight and not quick enough.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Alex Albon – 251.00 Carlos Sainz 151.00 Constructors Odds 101.00

Racing Bulls

The Red Bull B team and they will also be running the new Red Bull Ford power unit. Their driver line up has been in a state of flux for a while. They are the feeder team for the parent team and they have drivers ‘promoted’ to be Verstappen’s teammate, and then coming back when they failed.

For 2026 they have lost Issak Hadjar to Red Bull. Liam Lawson has kept hold of his seat, despite not being anything to write home about last year. He is a bit of a crasher and needs to get that out of his repertoire. Lawson is joined by Red Bull prodigy, Arvid Linblad. The only rookie in the field, Linblad is just nineteen years old and was the youngest ever winner in Formula 3 and Formula 2.

New Technical Director

Racing Bulls have appointed experienced aerodynamicist Dan Fallows as their new Technical Director, adding to the squad’s technical leadership group.

When he arrives in April, Fallows will “take responsibility for the overall technical direction of the team, working across design, aerodynamics and performance”. Fallows has previously worked at Red Bull and most recently, Aston Martin.

Alan Permane remains as Racing Bulls’ Team Principal and the team will be looking to enjoy more stability after driver and team principal changes in 2025.

Small Team

Racing Bulls is a small team and have been around for a long time under various guises. It was initially known as Minardi, then Toro Rosso, Alpha Tauri and Visa Cash App F1 Team, before being re-named Racing Bulls.

Red Bull bought it in 2006 as a place to develop driving talents. Drivers like Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen started out in the team, They do not aspire to win championships but under its former guises they have won a Grand Prix when Vettel won a very wet Italian GP in 2008. Pierre Gasly won the 2020 Italian GP for the than named Alpha Tuari.

It is hard to get too excited about the Racing Bulls but they can have their moments. They have tended to be a solid midfield outfit, benefitting from support from Red Bull and sharing technology, but have to build their own chassis.

The driver line up is very inexperienced but there is quite a buzz around Linblad, and It will be interesting to see how he gets on.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Liam Lawson – 401.00 Arvid Linblad – 401.00 Constructors Odds 401.00

Audi

Finally breaking cover as an official Audi F1 team. They bought the old Sauber F1 team having taken a stake in the company as long ago as 2022.

The team now have three different sites. The old Sauber facilities in Hinwil in Switzerland, a Technology centre in Bicester, Oxfordshire, and their Power Unit department in Bavaria.

The technology centre in the UK’s ‘F1 Valley’ is a smart move. Sauber struggled to get talent to move to Switzerland to work in the Hinwil factory due to the high cost of living there. They will be able to recruit from the big pool of F1 talent based in that part of the world.

Own Power Unit

While they have the ‘advantage’ of having taken over an established F1 constructor, Audi have decided to build their own power unit. I suppose, as a major motor manufacturer, they couldn’t be seen running a rival manufacturer’s product, even in the short run.

Building a F1 spec power unit is a huge undertaking and we shall just have to wait and see how competitive it will be. It is rumoured that the power unit features a large turbo. This has been a bit of a problem in race start simulations, as it takes longer to power up, but it is expected to provide a useful power boost on the faster circuits.

Low Expectations

Expectations should be kept low for Audi, but a lot depends on the power unit. If they can make a decent unit, then they can fit in in the lower midfield, but this is a long-term project.

The team is headed by ex-Red Bull man Jonathan Wheatley as team principal, ex-Ferrari boss, Mattia Binotto, as project head and the experienced James Key as Technical director. The driver line up remains with the final Sauber pairing of Nico Hulkenberg and Gabriel Borteltto.

A realistic target is to beat Cadillac and perhaps Aston Martin.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Nico Hulkenberg – 501.00 Gabriel Bortoleto – 601.00 Constructors Odds 301.00

Cadillac

A brand new team, starting from scratch. They will be using a Ferrari power unit, but have plans to build their own.

They have only been going for around twelve months and have to be commended for just getting everything in place and turning out a car on time and capable of running, albeit running slowly.

Cadillac decided to go with two experienced drivers, Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez. If the car is fast enough, they can deliver.

The American team has its headquarters in Indiana but has other bases in Michigan and Silverstone in the UK. It employs just over 500 people, so is a small outfit in F1 terms. They currently rent the Toyota wind tunnel in Germany. The design office will be at Silverstone and the manufacturing in the Indiana factory.

Reports

It has been reported that the team’s owners, General Motors, are trying to buy the intellectual rights to the old Renault power units, as a foundation to build their own power units on. Those units are not expected to come online until 2029.

The team have recruited a lot of talent from other teams. Former Virgin and Marussia CEO, Graeme Lowdon, was hired as team principal and he in turn hired a lot of the old ‘team Enstone’ personnel (people who had worked out of the Enstone F1 factory, the UK home of Benetton and Renault F1 teams. Figures like Pat Symmonds, Rob White, Nick Chester and Jon Tomlinson all hold senior positions in the team, so they have a lot of F1 experience to draw on.

Expecting anything other than last place in the Constructors’ Championship would be optimistic, unless Aston Martin fail to get over their problems.

2026 F1 Season Odds: Valtteri Bottas – 1001.00. Sergio Perez 1001.00 Constructors Odds – 6001.00

Testing

Testing is often said to be a poor form guide for what is to come. We don’t know the fuel loads, times are set in different conditions, on different tyres and so on. You cannot read too much into the lap times is the cry from the teams…but it is all we have to go on for the season ahead.

Such are the major changes in the regulations, you cannot use what has gone before as much of a form guide. Just because McLaren have won the last two Constructors’ Championships counts for very little, except that they get the least allotted wind tunnel and CFD time under the ‘handicapping system introduced a few years ago (the winning team is ‘handicapped’ by having less time in the wind tunnel, the team coming last getting the most).

The one factor in testing that can be used as a guide is the amount of laps each team covered. Testing is about finding faults, but also about generating data. The data can then be used to develop the cars going forward. If your car is sitting in the garage, it is not gathering data, and data is gold at this stage of the new regulation cycle.

The Shakedown Test

The first test was called a ‘shakedown test’. A chance for the teams to run their cars and test that everything worked. Even just very basic stuff like making sure the radios work and the telemetry is sending all the data back to the pits. It was a five-day test, with the teams only allowed run for three of the days. It wasn’t considered that important and the weather was mixed, so the times were no sort of guide.

What we could take away from the Barcelona shakedown, was that Williams were not even there. Not a wheel turned in anger and no systems checked etc. Aston Martin did turn up, late, but they did get a few laps under their belt.

Mercedes set the most laps with 500 followed by Ferrari on 440, Haas 391, Alpine 349, Racing Bulls 319, Red Bull 303, McLaren 291, Audi 244, Cadillac 164, Aston Martin 65 and Williams 0.

The general consensus was that the cars proved to be much more reliable than expected. Mercedes were particularly impressive, but for what it was worth (very little) Hamilton set the fastest time in the Ferrari.

The Second Test

The second test was held at the Shakir circuit in Bahrain, was open to the media, and was a proper pre-season test. The teams got more laps under their belts and worked on long runs. It was a chance for the drivers to get used to how the new power units perform and that proved to be difficult. Some said that it was like trying to learn how to drive all over again.

There are different skills required, especially around keeping the batteries charged. We have been used to drivers managing fuel consumption and tyre temperatures, but now they also have to manage the batteries, which account for around 50% of the car’s power. Mastering power management is going to be a big part of F1 racing under these regulations, and it will be a steep learning curve.

Max Not Happy

It was fair to say that some drivers hated it, especially the ‘old boys’ like Alonso and Hamilton. Max Verstappen was particularly scathing about how the cars have to be driven. There was even talk of early retirement if it turns out that the new cars are no longer ‘fun to drive’. Lewis Hamilton was sending mixed messages, while Norris said that it was OK, and they just had to get on with it.

Clearly, it is very different to what has gone before, but with time, the drivers will get used to the new cars and as Norris says, just get on with it. The cars are not slow, and very fast out of the corners thanks to the electrical input giving instant power. But when the driver has to recharge the batteries, that is where things can get difficult.

The batteries recharge when the brakes are applied, but on tracks with fewer braking events, other methods have to be employed, such as revving the engines by cornering in a higher gear. Drivers were going into some corners in first gear, whereas it had been a 2nd or 3rd gear corner with the previous power units.

Lock Ups

It all takes some working out and we saw a lot of lock ups as an effect of the deceleration caused by the batteries recharging when the drivers started to brake. If you have ever driven a hybrid car, you know that you don’t really need the brakes to slow down. Just lift off the accelerator and the batteries start to harvest energy and you have battery braking.

Clearly the drivers and teams have work to do to figure out the best way to charge the batteries while still making the car driveable.

Williams bounced back from their no show in Barcelona by setting the joint most laps, along with McLaren with 422. Ferrari were just one lap short with 421, Haas 390, Audi 354, Red Bull 343, Racing Bulls 327, Cadillac 320, Alpine 318, Mercedes 282 and Aston Martin 206.

Reliability Mostly Fine

Everyone had problems at times but again, reliability was generally good, Aston Martin excepted. Mercedes went from the most miles in Barcelona to second least in the first Bahrain test. That was thanks to having a power unit problem which meat just three laps for Antonelli on one of his sessions behind the wheel. Aston Martin once again brought up the rear.

The times set were a little more interesting as the drivers were working on long runs so they had a proper fuel load on board. A large pinch of salt has to be taken when looking at the times, but it was the two Mercedes who set the fastest times over the three-day test.

They were followed by the two Ferraris, then the two McLarens, Verstappen, the two Haas were 8th and 9tth. The two slowest cars were the Aston Martins, around 4.50 seconds off the Mercedes.

Pecking Order

A tentative pecking order was beginning to form but every team seemed to be saying that somebody else was faster. Mercedes said Red Bull were fastest, Ferrari second fastest. Red Bull said that they were behind Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren. Ferrari said that Mercedes were hiding performance and that they were behind Red Bull and Mercedes.

So, Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes were the most impressive, depending on who you were listening to. McLaren maybe a touch behind the ‘big three’, Everyone was agreed on one team. Aston Martin were the most unreliable, by a huge margin.

Slow But Respectable

Cadillac looked very much like the brand new team that they are; slow but respectable. Audi were looking like you might expect Sauber to be doing. Haas were quite impressive in terms of mileage and decent times (best of the rest?). Williams, Alpine, Racing Bulls were looking middle of the pack.

The first test also revealed a potential problem with race starts. The drivers complained that getting the cars ready for a standing start was very difficult with the new power units.

It was reckoned that one in twenty starts failed. We have twenty two cars on the grid, so it looks like we could have one or two cars just not getting off the grid, which is very dangerous. A meeting was planned with the FIA at the second Bahrain test.

The Second Bahrain Test – Where did the Teams Stack Up?

The teams returned after a week for the final test. There were plenty of developments from the cars seen out the week before. We started to see the cars doing more performance runs, as well as doing long runs.

I will do a brief summary of each team at the final test, having sat for three days watching it all.

The Big Four

Ferrari

Finished the second Bahrain Test with the fastest time. Charles Leclerc was running on the final day and ended with a lot of performance runs on new soft tyres. He was 0.811 seconds faster than the second fastest diver, Mercedes’ Kimi Antonelli. Obviously, if they are nearly a second faster than the market favourite, Mercedes, Ferrari are going to run away with both titles.

However, we have to apply the usual caveats those times. Fuel load, power unit modes and so on. Other contenders were not chasing times on the same tyre, nor at the same time. Ferrari were showboating.

The consensus was that the Ferrari is indeed a good car, with some field leading characteristics, the most important of which is that the car is a rocket ship off the start line. In the practice starts it was clearly the fastest by some way. The opposition were improving their starts, but they were all left slack jawed by Ferrari’s performance from a standing start.

Track Position Key

This strength off the line should not be underestimated. Track position has long been King in F1. Overtaking is hard and we shall have to wait and see if that is still the case with these new cars and their boost to pass buttons.

Most drivers believe that overtaking will still be difficult, and if so, being able to make up places at the start of a race, or just stay ahead if you are on pole, will be very valuable. On some tracks if the driver can’t make up places at the start, he is stuck where he is, outside of pitstops and strategy.

The car was very quick in the slower corners and it is said that their small turbo unit is much quicker to deliver its boost and it will be very quick on the slower tracks and in parts of tracks with slow speed sectors.

This characteristic helped the car be nice and smooth out of the corners. It could put the power down with a good deal of stability and the car was looking after its rear tyres well as a result. We haven’t talked about tyres much but looking after them will be as important as ever.

Bahrain Suited

It was said that the Bahrain track suited the characteristics of the car. Nobody is buying that Ferrari is 0.8 seconds faster that the Mercedes, but it does have some qualities which make it very competitive, and perhaps dominant on some tracks.

Of course, the trade off from designing a smaller turbo is that you lose performance in the highspeed stuff. A smaller turbo will also struggle in the thin air of Mexico City, and to a lesser extent in Sao Paulo. Ferrari will have done their calculations, and decided that overall, the smaller, more driveable turbo has more positives than negatives over the twenty-four racetracks used.

Ferrari got tongues wagging with their ‘rotating upside-down rear wing’. That was only on the car for a handful of laps and was described a test item. Other teams are said to have evaluated the same idea but didn’t pursue it.

Exhaust Wing

Another design feature that appeared late in testing was a ‘exhaust wing’. This is designed to make use of the exhaust gas exit velocity to try to add some downforce. It is a complicated design and needs a narrow gearbox casing to allow everything to fit. That makes it very hard to copy, without redesigning the gearbox packaging.

If it works well, Ferrari will have bought some more downforce that their rivals have missed out on. Haas have the same power unit and gearbox as Ferrari, so they could develop their own.

Cadillac use their own gearbox, so even with the Ferrari power unit, they are unlikely to be able to copy it. A bit like Mercedes slotted diffuser, the exhaust wing is not a gamechanger, but certainly worth having.

But is it the fastest car? All we can really say is that it might be, and if it isn’t, it is not far off. The drivers were both clearly a lot happier than they were in 2025. This is a car that they can compete with. It is now up to the team to execute a good season, and that has not been a strong point for Ferrari.

Mercedes

Still the bookmakers favourite to win the Constructors’ title. The three tests saw the car regularly at, or near the top of the time sheets. Mercedes also completed the most laps of any team.

There were some problems, but everyone had those. The car was sporting some upgrades at the final test (such as a new rear wing) and everything seems to be going to plan for Mercedes.

I am not sure why, but the other teams and trackside observers are in agreement, that Mercedes have not yet shown its hand. I am not a great believer that teams hide their true pace in testing, but perhaps Mercedes had good reason to do just that.

Underplaying True Pace?

With the other power unit manufacturers unhappy with Mercedes’ compression ratio trick and looking set to get a mid-season regulation change to end Mercedes’ perceived advantage, Mercedes may have been keen to underplay any power advantage. If they had been setting lap times a second a lap faster than the next best, maybe the FIA would have made Mercedes change things sooner than during the summer break.

Their car looks to be a great all-rounder, but not the best in every area. The Ferrari is much faster off the line, and Haas seem not far off Ferrari. The Red Bull appears to be able to regenerate their batteries more efficiently and can be faster, for longer, on the straights. This Mercedes package doesn’t look to be as far ahead as their 2014 car was. Good enough to win titles? Probably.

Reliability was not rock solid during testing, but it has been a real strength of the team for many years, and as their lappery tells us, they are leading the field in that department once more.

Red Bull

Received plaudits for its new Red Bull Ford power unit. It ran very reliably and was noted for its straight-line speed. Its ability energize their battery pack very quickly is a neat trick and a potent one. Running out of battery power is the one thing that people have been worried about with these new power units. If Red Bull have indeed got an edge in this department, it may be as big a deal as Mercedes compression ratio trick.

The car looks aerodynamically sophisticated and perhaps the loss of Adrian Newey will not be as big a negative as expected. It certainly looks a good enough package to allow Verstappen to win races.

McLaren

With the fourth highest mileage achieved in testing, McLaren look well prepared for the new season. The car was placed around third or fourth best by observers, but they did seem to improve in the final test. According to team principal Stella, the car did indeed improve.

“It’s encouraging to see that we’ve been able to improve the car’s performance day by day. We now have a clear picture of the car’s potential as we enter the new era of Formula 1.”

It is believed that McLaren (nor any of the Mercedes customer teams) were not running the latest spec Mercedes power unit at the test. They will all get the same one that Mercedes have from Melbourne onwards, and that should mean a bit more performance to come.

With a strong driver line up, they may be more likely to be stronger contenders for the Constructors’ title, than for the Drivers’ Championship. The team have been very effective at in season car development in the last couple of years, and it is a long season.

The Best of the Rest

These ‘second division’ teams are said to be around a second off the top four teams, but that can be track dependent. They are unlikely to be competing for podiums, unless we have exceptional circumstances.

Haas

Testing was a success for Haas. Over the three testes, they covered more laps than everyone bar Mercedes. Good reliability and reasonable pace. The team were able to improve performance day on day, so they understand how it is working.

Haas have the Ferrari power unit, with its small turbo architecture. That should give them a competitive edge over their nearest rivals, on the medium and slower tracks on the calendar. They were, like Ferrari, very quick off the start line and that is going to be a benefit everywhere.

Oliver Bearman was their lead driver in 2025 and he now has a first full season under his belt, so he should be improving. Ocon is under more pressure to improve his performance, but he has been around the block and might have reached his level. Certainly, a team who can pick up points and are right there in the ‘best of the rest’ category.

Not many upgrades

Bearman did say that they do not expect to have many upgrades on the car for Melbourne. Historically, they have been a team that aimed to be as ready as possible for race one and try and score points early in the season. As a small team they can struggle to keep pace in the development wars.

Haas scored two doubles points finishes from the first four races last year and have scored in at least two of the first four races, in the last four years. That will be hard to match, with the big four teams likely to be taking up the lion’s share of the points paying places, but that makes them all the more valuable.

Alpine

The bottom team of 2025 looks set to return to its more traditional place in the midfield. Taking on Mercedes’ power units will give them more power, and they achieved a healthy amount of laps in testing, ending up 6th in distance covered.

Their Driver line up is a bit weak. Gasly is very experienced and worth his place. Colapinto? I would say that his Argentinian backers have as much to do with his place in the car as his ability. He can be quick but he has tended to make too many mistakes.

Alpine should be able to take advantage of Williams and Aston Martin not being competitive in the early stages of the season, and then try and hang on. It should be close between them and Haas for best of the rest honours, but my vote just about goes to Haas, who have that fast start ability, and a marginally better driver line up.

The Third Division

Racing Bulls

Lindblad’s run of 165 laps on the final day of the final test meant that Racing Bulls were 5th in the laps completed table. They even had more than their parent team, Red Bull. They had a few problems along the way, but nothing serious and everything was ‘going swimmingly’ by the end of the testing, said team principal Alan Permane.

Pace wise, they could join Alpine and Haas at times, but to me they look top of the third division for now. Part of that is the driver line up. I am not a huge fan of Lawson’s driving, and Linblad is making his debut in F1.

The team is designed to be a place for the young drivers in the Red Bull driver program to go and gain experience and to prove their worth. Lawson didn’t prove his worth in 2026, dropped by Red Bull after two races, and unless he really impresses in 2026, his prospects do not look good.

Williams

On the positive side, Williams eventually got plenty of laps under their belt, only two teams did more in the final test, but in terms of KMs completed across all three tests, Williams tally of 4275km was the third lowest.

On the negative side, the team found several shortcomings with the car. Carlos Sainz said that there were quite a few areas where they need to improve. Team principal James Vowels said “What I know for sure, though, is we have work to do. There’s no doubt about it. We’ve put ourselves on the back foot.”

The next few months will be a recovery mission. That likely means losing ground to those teams that have started well and will be pushing on with developments, not fixing problems.

Low Hanging Fruit

There is likely to be some low hanging fruit which can improve performance, like losing weight. Vowles expects to see improvement in that department in the first few race weekends.

There is not a lot of optimism at Williams. They are not where they had expected to be ahead of this crucial season. With the likes of Haas and Alpine looking decent, Williams look like they will be at the back of the midfield, at least in the early races. They may be able to join the second division later in the season, if they can shed weight.

AUDI

Eighth best in terms of distance completed in testing, Audi get some praise for introducing a serious aerodynamic upgrade for the second test, with the car sporting some very narrow side pods.

Their power unit was not the sweetest sounding on the grid, but even that improved by the final day. The Audi turbo unit is reported to be the biggest in the field. This is likely to make them a bit ponderous off the line, but when it comes to the power tracks, and Mexico City, they could find their sweet spot.

They are running a brand-new power unit and they are the only team running it. That doesn’t generate the kind of data that Mercedes, Ferrari and even Red Bull Ford will do. I suspect the chassis will be OK, but where the PU stands will define them.

Team principal Jonathan Wheatley said, “It’s an ambitious journey we’re on, and we’re a little way away from where we’d ideally like to be at the moment.”

Aston Martin

Will be starting the 2026 as a basket case. They only completed a total of 2111 kms over the three tests (Mercedes managed 6193 and even Cadillac 3935). The Honda power unit appeared to get worse over the course of the tests, possibly due to a lack of spares. That they could not even complete a timed lap on the final day of testing was humiliating.

The team say that every aspect of the package needs improving, but the biggest problem is the Honda power unit. It is unfit for purpose. I have to wonder if Honda will be the first (and only) power unit manufacturer to make use of the mechanism known as the Additional Development and Upgrade Opportunities (ADUO). This is the FIA’s plan to allow power unit manufacturers who fall behind to catch up.

Across the first six Grand Prix weekends the FIA will measure the total output from each of the manufacturer’s power trains, and should any be more than 3% down on power, special measures can then be taken. They could be allowed to spend more money on them, to have more dyno testing time allowed, and even to redesign the power units.

Gearbox Issues

Another part of the car that is a big problem is the gearbox. A report in the Spanish press says that a significant proportion of Aston Martin’s problems on the track stem from transmission-related issues. A complete redesign or replacement has reportedly been discussed.

Aston Martin have previously used Mercedes gearboxes to go with the Mercedes power unit, but now with Honda being a proper works team, Aston Martin have developed their own gearbox. Designing a new one would take many months and have knock on effects to other parts of the car.

Unfinished Project

The Aston Martin project is not finished. This season is their first with everything in place. They were never going to be joining the big boys, yet. Just because Adrian Newey has designed the car, doesn’t mean it automatically wins or even joins the top table.

They have an unreliable, slow power unit, a dodgy gearbox, cooling issues and none of those are easy fixes. 2027 anyone? That is a more realistic prospect for the team to make progress.

Cadillac

They got everything bolted together and were not disgraced, but they were helped by Aston Martin providing all the LOLs. They have the slowest/second slowest car on the grid, but it is more reliable than the Aston Martin.

They have realistic hopes of not being last in Melbourne, but this is a season of just getting everything in place, make it work and build on performance later in the season. Cadillac will be making up the numbers for now.

2026 F1 Season: Final Summary

With the biggest regulation reset ever seen in Formula 1, we can expect an ‘interesting’ start to the new era.

I have read a lot of very negative comments about the upcoming season. The ‘it’s the end of F1’ brigade have been out in force, as they always are when the regulations change. These are the fans that still haven’t got over the demise of V12 engines, but they will be as glued to their TVs as ever, and will just have to wait and see how the new regulations work out.

The racing will be different. Power management is going to be the key to these new cars, thanks to being more reliant on electrical power. Learning to get the best out of the new power units will take time, but we have already seen improvements in testing. Some drivers will get it quicker than others, as will some teams.

More Creativity

The new regulations have allowed more engineering creativity. Teams have come up with different solutions to the new regulations, whether that is in the power unit architecture, or the aerodynamics. And them we have the different fuel suppliers coming up with their version of the new sustainable fuels.

Formula 1 has always gone through changes. That can be for safety reasons. Just to reign in the speed of the cars so they don’t outgrow the circuits. There are technological changes to reflect modern car designs, environmental concerns and so on. F1 always survives the changes.

Different Sort of Racing

We will see a different sort of racing, but it is still racing, despite what some will say. There will be a start and a finish, winners and losers. The teams and drivers, will get better, get faster, and a few years down the line, they will change it again.

Already, after the three test sessions, we have pretty much established that the big four teams in 2026, will be the same big four that ended the 2025 season. There is nobody who looks to have come up with a dominant car. We should see some unpredictability early on and different cars are likely to be strong at different tracks.

There is a lot of learning to be done for the teams and for the punters.

2026 F1 Season: Betting Selections

I stuck my neck out before testing started and posted my bet for the World Drivers’ Championship. George Russell to win it at the then odds of 4.00. He is now the 3.25 favourite, so it was worth going in early.

I have looked at various bookmakers’ Formula 1 offerings and it is slim pickings I am afraid. The various firms are reluctant to put their heads above the parapet and they are sticking to the Drivers’ Championship, and Constructors’ Championship. A few have some driver match bets, but just the usual teammate H2Hs. Dull.

I expect that we should see more markets opening up next week and I will update things if anything of interest crops up.

Mercedes Short Enough

As for the Constructors’ Championship, it is hard to get away from Mercedes, but odds of just 2.38 are not great. If Antonelli improves then, yes, they should do it, but it is just his second season.

Red Bull are too much of a one-man team for me, but if Hadjar can handle being Verstappen’s number two, odds of 9.00 are OK. Verstappen will win races and the car looks competitive.

McLaren are looking for the Constructors’ hat-trick, but they are not a ‘works team’. With these new power units being so important under the new regulations, being a power unit manufacturer is an advantage. They will get the same spec power units, but Mercedes customers will not even get to run the latest spec until FP1 in Melbourne next weekend.

Ferrari Interesting

Ferrari will have their backers, and they have come up with some interesting ideas. Their driver line up is strong and they should be winning races this season. But it is Ferrari. They haven’t won a title since 2007. I suspect they would need a car with a big advantage if that was to change. They are 4.00 but only with win only books.

Red Bull make some each way appeal in what should be a four-horse race. Verstappen is a strong ace card, but like Mercedes, he is supported by a driver in only his second season. I am happy to leave this market alone for now. It is a long season and one in which car development will be huge. There may well be better opportunities during the season.

Watch out for any updates, if the bookmakers finally get their fingers out.

The preview for The Australian GP will be posted on Thursday.

-JamesPunt