2026 Gold Cup Stats That Matter – DS
2026 Gold Cup Stats That Matter
It’s that time of year again! Just four weeks to go until the famous Cheltenham roar and four days of the best that NH racing has to offer. Dave Stevos is going to use statistics to try and unearth some value in the four blue riband races at the Festival, his 2026 Gold Cup stats that matter preview is below.
Age
Just like in last year’s preview (which didn’t work out too well) the first stat we will use to narrow the 2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup field is age. Old Father Time waits for no man (or horse in this case) and no horse aged older than nine years old has won since Cool Dawn scored at 25/1 in the 1998 renewal for Robert Alner.
It is not a race for young horses either, with Long Run the only 6yo to win since the mighty Mill House in 1963. So, the horses to be interested in are 7yos, 8yos and 9yos and that is bad news for our ante-post wager on the 10yo I Am Maximus.
28 horses hold entries for the Gold Cup and the current favourite Fact To File will likely be supplemented. Of those 29, seven are aged 10yo or older. Some big priced outsiders come a cropper here, including the likes of Grangeclare West and Envoi Allen. We also lose the two-time Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs and he is by far the highest profile casualty at this stage.
Cut: Envoi Allen; L’Homme Presse; I Am Maximus; Grangeclare West; Galopin Des Champs; Fastorslow; Banbridge.
Grade 1 Winning Form
A common theme amongst Gold Cup winners is that they have won a Grade 1 over hurdles or over fences prior to landing the biggest prize of all. This statistic enables us to narrow the field even further.
Again, some long shots are counted out at this point, including Three Card Brag, last year’s Ultima winner Myretown, Monty’s Star and the French raider Gold Tweet. We also lose another big gun here, the Rebecca Curtis trained Haiti Couleurs. He’s been backed into as short as 7/1 after his Grade 2 win last time out at Newbury but unfortunately, the stats say he can’t win.
Last year’s Grand National hero Nick Rockett has also yet to score at the top table, so we’ll be putting a line through him too.
Cut: Three Card Brag; Myretown; Monty’s Star; Haiti Couleurs; Gold Tweet; Nick Rockett; Resplendent Grey; Heart Wood; Firefox.
Staying Power
Given the characteristics of Cheltenham and the 3m2f trip, stamina is a non-negotiable for prospective Gold Cup winners. Of the last dozen winners, eleven had won over three miles or further and we lose another one of the market leaders at this stage.
Jango Baie, the second favourite at around 5/1, could only manage fourth on his first try at 3m in the King George and has never won beyond 2m5f so unfortunately for his backers, this stat is not in Nicky Henderson’s charge’s favour. It is also the end of the line for another couple of Willie Mullins’ horses, Impaire Et Passe and the mare Spindleberry.
Cut: Jango Baie; Impaire Et Passe; Spindleberry.
Current Season’s Form
Inothewayurthinkin busted this trend in 2025 when he became just the second horse since 2010 to not have won at least one race during the season before winning the Gold Cup. He’ll have to repeat the trick if he is to follow up in 2026 but on his lifeless performances at Punchestown and Leopardstown this term, that doesn’t look likely.
We also lose the rank outsider Handstands here and last year’s Brown Advisory winner Lecky Watson is also discounted (form figures of 77P this season). The final faller at this obstacle is the 2024 Albert Bartlett winner Stellar Story, though I believe he may surprise a few with a big run if the ground comes up properly soft or heavy.
Cut: Inothewayurthinkin; Lecky Watson; Handstands; Stellar Story.
The Final Six
So, after all that, we are left with six contenders. Fact To File (4/1), The Jukebox Man (6/1), Gaelic Warrior (15/2), Spillane’s Tower (14/1), Grey Dawning (16/1) and Affordale Fury (50/1).
Fact To File was viewed by many as a doubtful stayer over 3m plus but that all changed at the DRF when he hosed up in the Irish Gold Cup. A 9l winner of the Ryanair Chase in 2025, he clearly doesn’t lack for toe and I am a big believer that a horse needs to possess a decent turn of foot to win a Gold Cup and this son of Poliglote ticks most boxes. However, whether he’ll stay the extra 2f up the Cheltenham hill remains to be seen.
The Jukebox Man is a horse I am a huge fan of. He’s a brilliant jumper, he likes to be close to the pace and while his best two chase runs have come at Kempton, he was only narrowly denied in the 2024 Albert Bartlett so he should be fine on the track. For me, he looks the most likely winner.
Gaelic Warrior chased home Fact To File at Cheltenham last time, backing up his narrow defeat behind The Jukebox Man in the King George. Beaten at the Festival in 2022 and 2023, he finally got his head in front at this venue in last year’s Arkle. However, his sole success at beyond 3m came on Aintree’s flat track and the jury is still out on whether he has the necessary stamina for this sort of test.
Betfair Chase Winner
Grey Dawning finished 3l behind Gaelic Warrior the day he won at Aintree last season. An impressive winner of the Betfair Chase in November, he has one win from three previous visits to Cheltenham and that came over 2m4f in the 2024 Turners Novice. He was well held behind Spillane’s Tower over 25.5f here last time out but he was ridden as though connections had another day in mind so I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if he turned that form around.
That leaves us with Affordale Fury. I had to do a double take when I saw his odds of 50/1. Yes, he ran poorly in the Irish Gold Cup but he pulled a muscle during the race and I am more than willing to put a line through that run.
He more than proved his Gold Cup credentials when staying on dourly to land the Savills Chase in December where he had Galopin Des Champs over 3l behind. He ran an absolutely massive race when an unconsidered 150/1 shot in the Albert Bartlett in 2023, so he has course form and Noel Meade stated last week he’s confident he’ll be ready for March. At the odds and with non-runner no bet available, he has to be worth chancing each way.
