We have already posted an in-depth outright betting preview, see that here. Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2026 Japanese GP Qualifying preview, check it out below.

2026 Japanese GP Qualifying

Free Practice 1 had a Noah’s Ark feel to it, at least at the sharp end.

Mercedes – 1-2 in FP1. Antonelli just 0.025 off Russell’s best time of 1.31.666. McLaren – 3rd and 4th in FP1, with Norris 0.132 slower than Russell. Ferrari – 5th and 6th with Leclerc 0.298 slower than Russell. The car looked a bit twitchy with it lacking a bit of downforce.

There was then a big gap to Verstappen in 7th place. He was 0.791 off Russell’s time, and he was 0.417 slower than Lewis Hamilton in 6th place. Hadjar was back in 13th place and this confirms that the Red Bull is now in danger of becoming a midfield car. We can talk about the Big 3, but not a Big 4. Verstappen has won the last four Japanese GPs, but here he is nearly eight tenths off the pace, and a big chunk off sixth place.

Top Ten

Both Racing Bulls made the top ten and they are every bit as good as the Red Bulls, which is embarrassing for the senior team.

Audi were 11th and 12th, sort where they reside in 2026 so far. Haas ended up 9th and 14th, again showing top 10 potential. Alpine remain hard to call but being 15th and 16th is where they were in FP1.

The backmarkers remain the backmarkers, with Williams ahead of Cadillac, who are ahead of Aston Martin.

FP2

Free Practice 2 saw the McLaren of Piastri ahead of Kimi Antonelli’s Mercedes by a margin of 0.092, Russell third and 0.205 behind the McLaren and Norris fourth but a chunky 0.516 behind.

Ferrari were once again 5th and 6th, but further off the pace, with Leclerc +0.713. After Ferrari, we drop back into the midfield and for FP2 the leader of the pack was Nico Hulkenberg, 7th fastest but a whopping 1.308 off Piastri’s time, and 0.467 slower than Hamilton in 6th place.

There were four drivers within a tenth of Hulkenberg. They were Albon, a surprise, Bearman, Verstappen and Ocon. Liam Lawson in the Racing Bull and Carlos Sainz in the other Williams were not far off that pack before a bigger gap to the remaining eight. Lindblad didn’t set a time due to a mechanical failure in his Racing Bull.

Day 1 Review

Mercedes ended the day a tiny fraction slower than McLaren. Antonelli was within a tenth of Russell in FP1 and a tenth off Piastri in FP2.

Mercedes said that Russell was losing time in the spoon corner and losing time out of the final corner as he had not harvested enough energy compared to Antonelli. They will work on improving that for qualifying. He has some low hanging fruit to pick.

McLaren have not only leap frogged Ferrari but have closed right up on Mercedes. They have used the two week break well, getting more out of the Mercedes power unit. That has surprised Mercedes, but they think they can up their game tomorrow.

Car Problem For Lando

Lando Norris had a car problem in FP2 and only ran 17 laps, compared to Piastri’s 29. He had been doing aero test runs in FP1 and then a little running in FP2, so he is on the back foot. He didn’t do any running on the soft tyre, so he is in better shape than the raw times state.

Ferrari didn’t look great and at one point Hamilton said that he had ‘no confidence in the car’. Both drivers were struggling for grip with the rear end stepping out and these new power units hate that.

Of the Big 3 teams, Ferrari have the most work to do. Hamilton said that the car lacked balance but remained optimistic that they can sort that out for the rest of the weekend. He needs to get a more stable rear end, so at least they know what is needed.

Red Bull Struggling

Red Bull continue to struggle, despite having brought a significant upgrade. Verstappen, the King of Suzuka, was 1.376 seconds off the best time in FP2. He hasn’t suddenly become a crap driver, so we know the car is a dog, a big fat one. Hadjar must be looking at his old team, Racing Bulls, and thinking ‘what have I done.

Red Bull were famous for turning their performance around overnight from Friday to Saturday, but if they are competitive tomorrow, that would be a comeback that would make Lazarus blush. Verstappen should be able to make it into Q3 but Hadjar, maybe not. Verstappen was not optimistic that the team would be able to find much improvement overnight.

2026 Japanese GP Qualifying: Best of the Rest

The pecking order can, and probably will, change somewhat as the teams refine their set up overnight. Which teams look more likely to be getting into Q3?

The Haas cars have only had one car in Q3 at the first two GPs, and their pace today has them around 10th place. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just missed out, or just get one in by the skin of their teeth. They are running a new front wing this weekend. They are not expecting a huge gain but a small improvement.

Hulk 7th

Nico Hulkenberg is carrying our cash for a points finish on Sunday and he ended up an encouraging 7th place in FP2. He has specialised in being 11th so far this season. Hopefully he can nail it in qualifying having been so close in the first two races. It is very tight in that part of the midfield, and the drivers are going to make the difference.

Alex Albon ended up a very surprising 8th in FP2. They are running a new front suspension. He had crashed into Perez in FP1, which may explain why he was only 18th in that session. Sainz said that their one lap pace was better than their race pace. Albon said that he didn’t expect to be able to match his 8th place in qualifying.

Car Problems

Teams that suffered with unreliability were Racing Bulls. Lindblad missed all of FP2 with a gear box failure. He is a newbie at Suzuka and missing so much track time was bad news.

McLaren had hydraulic problems with Norris’ car. Alex Albon’s Williams came to a stop on track, but after being stationary for a few moments, he was able to reset the system and got going again.

Aston Martin ran Jack Crawford in FP1 and his session ended early after just eleven laps. This was no surprise, but at least Stroll and Alonso had no big problems, just very slow.

Audi had a problem with Bortoleto’s car in FP2 and he spent a lot of time in the garage while that was fixed. He only got eleven laps in.

Perez missed time in FP2 has the team were still repairing his car after Albon crashed into him in FP1. That was a pain, as the team were running a new floor and needed to gather data on that.

2026 Japanese GP Qualifying Summary

The big story was McLaren’s uptick in form. Of course it wasn’t going to be difficult to improve on China, but they were faster than Ferrari, clearly, and very close to Mercedes. We should remember that Piastri was also fastest in FP2 in Melbourne but was then 4th in FP3 and 5th in qualifying.

I suspect that Mercedes will be quicker tomorrow. They have been 1-2 in all qualifying sessions so far and there was nothing really wrong with the car, just that Russell was suboptimal with his power management.

Ferrari were the other story, for being slower than expected. Their car is happier in slower corners and they lacked grip in the faster ones here. Hamilton thinks there is a path out of it, but they may have to play third fiddle this weekend.

Slow Red Bull

Red Bull brought upgrades but the car remains slow and looks to have lost ground. They may be able to pull things together overnight but the body language of the drivers remains poor.

It looks like McLaren could push Mercedes a bit more than anyone has in the first two race weekends, but I still expect a Mercedes 1-2. George Russell is the 1.60 favourite for pole and Antonelli 4.00.

There is only one choice value wise, and that is Antonelli. Russell deserves favouritism due to his greater experience, but in terms of performance shown so far on short and long runs, they are neck and neck. Russell may have more slack to take up with his power management, but Antonelli is clearly feeling much more confident than was the case last year.

There is not a lot of e/w betting available, but you can get 3.75 for Antonelli at 1/3 the odds 1-2. There is nothing wrong with going with an e/w option, it is the safer bet, but I am happy to have a modest bet on Antonelli out right.

2026 Japanese GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to be the fastest qualifier @ 4.00 with Betfred

2026 Japanese GP Qualifying: Match Betting

Alpine were very low profile today. Gasly 15th and 14th in the two practice sessions, Colapinto 16th and 17th. Gasly was 7th for Sprint qualifying in China, but that was after just one practice session. They may just have landed upon a decent set up, but he was also 7th for GP qualifying, so it was more likely the car just liked the circuit. In Melbourne, Gasly was 18tth in FP1 but though he improved with each session, he still only qualified 14th.

Haas have a front wing tweak for this weekend Ocon ended the two sessions 9th and 11th. I haven’t been impressed by him so far in 2026, and he is being shown up by his teammate, Oli Bearman.

However, he is 1-1 with Gasly so far in GP qualifying and 4-2 at Suzuka. The Haas looks faster than the Alpine so far. Ocon was 0.2 faster in FP2 and 0.3 in FP1. I expect Gasly to close the gap, but to be the 1.75 favourite to Ocon’s 2.00? I’ll have a punt on the taller of the two Frenchmen.

Alpine are struggling with understeer in the fast corners, as they did in Melbourne. Shanghai had more in the way of slow and medium corners and that was likely the reason that they were quicker there.

2026 Japanese GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to beat Pierre Gasly @ 2.00 with Unibet

-JamesPunt