2026 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter – DS

by Dave Stevos | Feb 23, 2026

2026 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter

Dave Stevos has already posted stats-based previews for the Gold Cup and Champion Chase, you can read those by clicking the links at the bottom of this page. Now, we are going to use trends and stats to narrow the field of Thursday’s feature race at Cheltenham, check out his 2026 Stayers’ Hurdle stats that matter preview below.

Age

More often than not, winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle are aged between 6yo and 8yo. However, Bob Olinger (10yo) and Sire Du Berlais (11yo) have defied this stat in two of the last three renewals and the former horse will be hoping to do so again at the ripe old age of eleven.

That being said, we are still going to stick with the overall trend rather than two recent anomalies because since 1990, only five horses have managed to win the Stayers’ Hurdle that were aged older than eight.

We lose some real stalwarts here, including the reigning champion, Bob Olinger. Home By The Lee, Hewick, the two-time previous winner Flooring Porter and last year’s runner up Teahupoo, who is the current favourite, also come a cropper. The stats can be a cruel mistress at times…

Cut: Home By The Lee; Hewick; Flooring Porter; Bob Olinger; Gowel Road; Doddiethegreat; Theleme; Teahupoo; Nurse Susan; Buddy One.

Course Form

Since 2009, all but one of the winners of this contest had run at Cheltenham before. Having previous course form is a big plus so we’ll be discounting horses that have either yet to run at this venue and also those that have run here before but failed to win or place.

We lose another huge name here in Honesty Policy. He has yet to even run at Cheltenham so the stats say we have to put a line through him. The only other casualty at this point is the 100/1 shot Gwennie May Boy.

Cut: Honesty Policy; Gwennie May Boy.

Official Rating

You need a classy horse to win the Stayers’ Hurdle and that is reflected in the official ratings of winners. Since the turn of the century, every single winner that had a rating was 150+, apart from Lisnagar Oscar who pulled off a shock 50/1 win when rated 146 in 2020.

At the time of entries Ma Shantou was only rated 144 but a 10lb hike for his Cleeve Hurdle romp means he makes it past this stage. However, we do lose the 149 rated Potters Charm, the 146 rated French Ship and also the 141 rated Feet Of A Dancer.

Cut: Potters Charm; French Ship; Feet Of A Dancer.

The Final Six

So, after all that, we are left with six contenders. Gordon Elliott’s top-class mare Wodhooh has made it through but she is most likely heading for the Mares’ Hurdle, for which she is a 2/1 shot. The Yellow Clay has also made the final stage but he’s hard to fancy on this year’s exploits and he’s just 16s for the Coral Cup.

That leaves us with four. Ballyburn is the joint longest priced of those that remain at 14/1 but Willie Mullins’ charge has yet to definitively prove he stays 3m. Yes, he got to within a nose of Teahupoo in the 2m4f Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse but when they met over 3m at Leopardstown, there was 14l between them.

Long Walk Winner

Impose Toi was runner up in last year’s Coral Cup and when he won The Long Walk at Ascot in December, it seemed like he’d announced himself as a big player in the 2026 Stayers’ Hurdle. However, he then bumped into Ma Shantou in the Cleeve Hurdle and after that decisive defeat, he might now go to the Pertemps instead of this race.

Ma Shantou has a really likeable profile and it is easy to see the similarities to the 2019 winner Paisley Park. Emma Lavelle’s charge came up short in the Albert Bartlett last year but he’s a much stronger animal now and bar a blip in a hot handicap at Haydock, he has won his other three starts in fine style. The way he pulled clear in the Cleeve was ultra-impressive and he has to have a huge chance here.

Stamina Query?

Kabral Du Mathan has also excelled this season, winning both starts since joining the Skeltons from Paul Nicholls. A handicap win at Haydock (2m3f) was followed by a smooth win in the Grade 2 Relkeel at Cheltenham (2m4f) but the question is, will this strong traveller see out three miles?

His dam won over 2m6f, which offers hope, but his sire Pastorious’ best progeny have done their winning at up to 2m5f so for me, there has to be major doubts about him staying three miles. If he does, he’ll be thereabouts.

2026 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter: The Verdict

Given how easily Teahupoo won at Leopardstown, it would be crazy to discount him but the stats do not discriminate. Of those that survived to the end, Ma Shantou makes the most appeal as a potential winner. He has improved leaps and bounds this season and given his profile, it would be no surprise if there is more to come from him.

Ballyburn has finished tamely enough when he has tried three miles and while Kabran Du Mathal has to prove his stamina too, at least he hasn’t run over the trip yet so we can’t say for sure whether he’ll stay or not. If he does, he will be a massive danger to all. I’d fancy Impose Toi to finish ahead of Ballyburn if he does run here, but that is not a certainty.

As far as having a bet goes, nothing really leaps out as being massively overpriced right now. I’ll be keeping my powder dry until closer to the race when we’ll know what sort of ground they’ll be running on.

2026 Stayers’ Hurdle Stats That Matter – DS