2026 US Masters Golf Betting Preview & Tips – JP
2026 US Masters Betting Preview
It is hard to believe it has been a year since that thrilling final round at Augusta that saw Rory McIlroy complete the career grand slam and win The Masters for the first time. Will the Northern Irishman defend his crown? James Punt is on the job, check out his 2026 US Masters betting preview below.
2026 US Masters Preview
The 2026 golf season comes to life with the first major of the season, the 2026 US Masters, from Augusta. The weather is set fair for all four days. The weekend is free of Formula 1 and Darts, so get the beers in and wallow in the greatest golf tournament of the year.
The Course
A 7565 yard, par 72 course, with no real rough, but very undulating fairways and fiendishly quick greens. It puts a premium on accuracy, for knowing where to put the ball on the fairways and on the greens. Discretion is the better part of valour when playing Augusta. Better to be further away from the hole, but with an uphill putt. Better to lay up than attack the green with a long iron.
Course form is a prerequisite and ideally, having played it a lot. Patience is a virtue and that virtue can be rewarded at Augusta. The course will bite hard at some point, and players that handle that and just move onto the next hole are better suited to the demands of the course.
The course has been lengthened over the years, first of all trying to ‘Tiger proof’ it, and more recently trying to stop the new breed of muscle men players trying to blast the course into submission, or ‘DeChambeau proofing’ it. For 2026, the course is only ten yards longer than last year.
Added Distance
An example of the distance added in recent years is a 520 yard par 4, and all that extending of the course does is to play to the strengths of the bombers. Just to make the course play even longer, the grass is mown so that the knap of the grass is towards the tees, so that when the ball lands, it doesn’t roll out more than a few yards. The effect of this is to make the 7555 yards closer to 7900.
Needless to say, short hitters might as well not bother coming. As the course has grown longer and longer, the trend has been for big hitters to win the title. Not just long drivers, but high fliers. Remember, the ball doesn’t run out much, so those that hit the ball high and long have the biggest advantage.
Treacherous Greens
The Bentgrass greens are very large, very undulating and very fast. Going for the pin can be the kiss of death and the best idea is to give yourself an uphill putt and be happy to two putt. All in all, it is a very difficult golf course.
There are some ‘golden rules for betting on The Masters. Ignore the defending champion is one. It’s only been done three times. Nicklaus, Woods and Faldo. Out goes McIlroy, who has been nursing a back injury in any case. Outside of those three defending champions, only Spieth and Scheffler have made the top five on their return to Augusta.
Don’t back debutants. Players that are new to the course have a lot to learn, too much to learn. Horton Smith claimed the first edition in 1934, followed by Gene Sarazen the very next year. Since then, there has only been one player to have won on his debut, and that was Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979. Nearly a quarter of the field are making their Augusta debut.
Deubutants
There are some very good players making their debut, including Chris Gotterup. The world number nine is a four-time tour winner and a 56.00 shot to slip on the green jacket on Sunday. Other well-known names to scratch off the list include the ultra-consistent Jacob Bridgeman, whose win at the Genesis Invitational moved him into the top 20. Ryder Cup player Ben Griffin will make his Masters debut after making his first Ryder Cup, which is strange.
Massive hitting Marco Penge will be suited to the length of the course, but out he goes, along with the likes of Tom McKibbin, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Casey Jarvis, and England’s flat cap wearing Harry Hall. Two-time DP World tour winner Kristoffer Reitan gets the chop, as does three time winner and only the second Finn to play The Masters, Sami Valimaki. There are the various amateur and regional qualifiers who can be dismissed. A total of twenty-two players ‘who can’t win’ according to history.
Young Man’s Game
Nobody over the age of 47 has won the Masters. Jack Nickluas won when he was 46 and 2 months of age. Tiger Woods was the youngest at 21 years and 3 months. Out goes the likes of Angel Cabrera, Fred Couples, Zack Johnson (finished in the top 10 last year), José María Olazábal, Vijay Singh, and Bubba Watson. Players such as Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott only just make the cut.
Don’t back the player who wins the tournament immediately before the Masters, which since 2007 has been the Texas Open, so out goes JJ Spaun.
If we can’t back the players ruled out by the Golden Rules, who can we consider?
Form Key
We want a player in good form. It is unusual for a player to arrive at Augusta in poor form and to win it. Of the last fourteen winners, ten had already won a tournament that season and the rest had at least one top 10. That doesn’t really narrow the field down very much. This is an elite bunch of players but of those not already scratched, out go Jordan Spieth, Harris English, Charl Schwartzel, Nick Taylor, Corey Conners, Alex Noren, Brian Harman, Wyndham Clark, Aaron Rai, Keegan Bradley, and Danny Willet.
That still leaves 46 players who haven’t been scratched. With the course playing so long these days, we need a player who can hit the ball a long way. Birdieing the four par 5s is one way to get a good score at Augusta. Being able to reach them in two helps.
The cream tends to rise to the top at Augusta and all of the last eight winners have been ranked in the top 25 of the Official World Golf Rankings. You don’t often get big surprises here like you can do at The Open Championship, for example. In the last fifteen years, Danny Willet, a 67.00 chance, was one, as was Charl Schwartzel, a 91.00 chance. Five of the last six winners have been single figure odds.
2026 US Masters: The Selections
The numbers have been crunched, the computer fed with the data, and the long list of ten players, does not contain any surprises. Nor a player with odds better than 29.00 (for e/w betting purposes).
The top four? Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau , Scotty Scheffler and Xander Schauffele.
Jon Rahm gets my headline pick. The 2023 winner and five time top ten finisher. Rahm is a big hitter and is in great form, with five consecutive top five finishes (albeit on the LIV Tour). He is a player with something to prove.
He is having a well-publicised row with the DP World Tour. They want him to pay a $3million fine for breach of contract when he left to play on the LIV tour. Pay the fine and play in a number of specified DP World tour events, and he would be eligible for the Ryder Cup.
Not Happy
Rahm has taken exception to this. Others have paid up and are getting on with things. Rahm got a reported $500million for signing up to LIV, so he can afford the fine, but he thinks he is a special case and the DP World should bow down to him. Winning this week would strengthen his case.
Rahm is an easy choice. His scoring average at Augusta is 71.00 across his nine appearances here, bettered only by three other people, including Scheffler with 70.33. He can play the course and is in great form.
The only worry is that he can lose the plot. He has a temper and that will get tested around here, but I go back to his great course form, so he should be fine.
2026 US Masters Tip: 1 point e/w Jon Rahm to win @ 12.00 with Betfred (1/5 the odds 1-8)
Another outright selection candidate, didn’t make my top 10 long list, but he kept on cropping up when looking at various stats. Collin Morikawa is ranked first for shots gained on approach. That is a big part of scoring here, and he does play the course well with a scoring average of 71.33, just ahead of Rory McIlroy and 7th best of the players in the field this year. He is ranked 6th for par 5 scoring, again just ahead of McIlroy and just behind Scheffler, DeChambeau, and Rahm.
Many will say that he doesn’t hit it far enough to be a Masters winner, but his scoring in past years says otherwise. His recent form saw a win at Pebble Beach, 7th at Riviera (a very good form guide for the Masters in past years) and 5th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Back Issues
Now, the reason he didn’t make the top 10 in the long list is that he hasn’t played since withdrawing from the Players Championship a month ago. He played one hole, took a practice swing on the next hole, and his back went. He was entered to play last week’s Texas Open but withdrew from that and that means he isn’t fit. I will have to leave him unbacked.
Others with less than ideal preparations are Rory McIlroy, another with a bad back, but he has been practicing at the course since the weekend and has had his long-time coach over from Ireland to cast his eye over his game.
Scotty Scheffler has not played since finishing T22nd at The Players Championship. He hasn’t played competitively for the last three weeks and wasn’t at his best when he took the time off for the birth of his second child. There may be a bit of rust, but on the positive side, he has the Nappy Factor on his side. That, and a phenomenal course record. His odds are 7.00, bigger than when we backed him to win in 2024, but that dip in form, followed by three weeks off, is enough for me to look elsewhere.
Bryson Lacks Course Form
Bryson DeChambeau ticks a lot of boxes, but the one he doesn’t tick for me is his course form. Yes, he has finished 5th and 6th for the last two years, but before that, he was pretty ordinary around Augusta. His scoring average is 72.44, that’s over par, and there are plenty with better records here. That said, odds of 13.00 are not bad.
I will have just one more outright bet. I like to look for a lefty that is in good form coming into Augusta. The lay out of the course suits the shots that left-handed players have. Since 2003, left-handed players have won the Masters six times (Mike Weir, 2003; Phil Mickelson, 2004, ’06 and ’10; Bubba Watson, 2012 and ’14). In that same period, lefties have combined for only four wins at the other three men’s Majors.
Most players can fade the ball better than they can draw it. This course actually makes the right-handed players have to play more draws than usual. For the lefties, they can just play a normal fade, their natural game.
Which Lefty Appeals?
Which of the left handed players can be considered? In the field this week, we have two-time winner, Bubba Watson, but his best days are behind him. His last top 10 here was back in 2018, but he did finish 14th last year.
Of more interest are Robert MacIntyre and Akshay Bhatia. McIntyre nearly ruled himself out of contention by winning in Texas last week. He ended up second, which tells us he is in good form (4th and 2nd last two events). He is becoming more confident in these big events.
Bobby has had three top 10s in his last seven majors, including his last two. His course form is not great, however, He missed the cut last year and his best finish was 12th in 2021. He has only played ten rounds of competitive golf around Augusta and is still learning it, but he is in better shape than before, formwise.
Bhatia is in good form, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month, but he missed the cut when he travelled to China for a DP World tour event two weeks ago. His course form only extends to two appearances, finishing 35th and 42nd. He has never finished better than 16th in any Major Championship. McIntyre was ninth on my long list and gets the nod.
2026 US Masters Tip: 0.5 point e/w Robert McIntyre to win @ 29.00 with Betfred(1/5th the odds 1-8)
2026 US Masters: Side Markets
We backed Patrick Reed to finish in the top ten last year and he ended up 3rd. I have no hesitation in renewing that wager. Reed has quit the LIV tour as he said that while playing (and winning) the Dubai Desert Classic, he was reminded of how much he enjoyed ‘real golf’ . The matchplay format, no team game, four rounds, with a cut and so on.
Reed wants to return to the PGA Tour and is trying to do it by playing on the DP World tour and winning a PGA Tour card via that route (he has already won two DP World Tour titles). A big result this week would go a long way, so he is well motivated.
His course record is very good. He won the title in 2018, one of his five top 10 finishes here in the last eight years. His short game skills get rewarded here and with the course going to play firm and fast, I expect players to be facing a lot of recovery shots from around the greens.
2026 US Masters Tip: 1 point Patrick Reed to finish in the top 10 @ 4.60 with Unibet
In the same market, I will go for more of an outsider, but a player who has four top 10s here in the last six years. Canadian Corey Connors hasn’t had a great season, but he finished 13th at the Players Championship and 14th in the Valspar Championship on his last two starts, so his most recent form has improved.
2026 US Masters Tip: 0.5 point Corey Connors to finish in the top 10 @ 7.00 with Bresbet
Matt Fitzpatrick has had a good season on US soil, coming second at the Players Championship and winning the Valspar Championship the following week. He has finished second in two of the last three Majors and of course, is a Major winner.
His course record is OK, he has had two top ten finishes and always made the cut in ten starts. There is one stat that the last five winners have had in common. Shots gained tee to green. The last five winners have all been ranked 1st or 2nd in that category at the Masters. On this year’s PGA tour, Fitzpatrick is ranked second for SG tee to green.
I’ll take him to be Top English player. That is a market of eight players. Fitzpatrick is the favourite, just ahead of Fleetwood and Rose. Justin Rose looks the biggest threat and Fleetwood is playing well, but I’ll get behind Fitzpatrick who does tend to play well on tree lined courses. He also came in 6th on my longlist.
2026 US Masters Tip: 1 point Matt Fitzpatrick to be Top English player @ 3.40 with Unibet, BET365
The final bet is another repeat from last year. It didn’t win but I’m trying to shoehorn Justin Rose into the portfolio of bets. He has been first round leader five times at Augusta, way better than anyone else in the field. Jordan Spieth has done it three times, De Chambeau and Koepka twice. Eight other players have done it once.
Rose is a three-time runner up at Augusta, so we know he can play the course. He finished 13th last time out at the Players Championship and has won on tour already in 2026.
