2021 UK Open Saturday Tips and Preview by James Punt
2021 UK Open Saturday: Dave Chisnall vs. Alan Soutar
The first 2021 UK Open Saturday evening match sees Chizy take on Alan Soutar. A big difference in the tournament averages here. Chisnall on 102.3, Soutar 94.0. The Scotsman also trails Chisnall in checkout efficiency and 180’s per leg. Soutar has played four matches to Chizzy’s two. He might be starting to feel it going into the second long match of the day and he has played a lot of darts, 50 legs so far.
In Soutar’s favour is that he beat Chisnall 6-5 in PC1 last week and that Chisnall tends to throw in a duff match at the business end of tournaments. However, tomorrow is the business end.
Chisnall is the 1.44 favourite and despite that win for Souter last week, they are now on the big stage, on the TV, under the lights where Chizzy will be much more at home.
Even with the risk that Chisnall could throw in his bad game early, he still looks the value to overcome a -1.5 leg handicap.
2021 UK Open Saturday: 2 points Dave Chisnall to win -1.5 legs @ 1.65 with Ladbrokes
2021 UK Open Saturday: Luke Humphries vs. Martijn Kleermaker
Kleermaker is the only player in the last 16 to be averaging less than 90 (88.2). He peaked at 95 when beating Martin Schindler, but the other three have been sub 90’s. His win over Schindler was his only good performance, otherwise he has played underperforming players or the injured Jamie Hughes who nearly beat him.
Humphries is going nicely, putting a bit of a hole in my dieting darters theory. He is averaging 100.4, hitting maximums at a healthy 0.37 per leg and his doubling is fifth best of those remaining. He has overcome two very tough opponents and this should be an easier proposition for him. He is the 1.40 favourite but again, he should be able to cover the handicap.
2021 UK Open Saturday: 1 point Luke Humphries to win -1.5 legs @ 1.83 with Boylesports, Ladbrokes
Devon Petersen vs. Peter Jacques
Jacques has been solid if not spectacular so far, averaging 93.3 and hitting 180’s at 0.33 per leg and decent on his doubles. His opponents haven’t played their best however and he hasn’t beaten much so far.
Devon Petersen wasn’t really on anybody’s radar coming into this. His form had tailed off after his big Euro Tour win last autumn and he too hasn’t had do much to get this far. Both is opponents have averaged just 91 and he beat both 10-5. It could be that Jacques does much the same and becomes another victim. What Petersen is doing is hit the 180’s well again. His success last year was built around hitting maximums and across his two matches so far he is hitting them @ 0.40 per leg, the third best of the remaining 16 players.
Petersen is the 1.40 favourite to win and yes, he is another handicap bet.
2021 UK Open Saturday: 1 point Devon Petersen to win -2.50 legs @ 1.91 with William Hill
Krzysztof Ratajski vs. Jonny Clayton
The Polish Eagle made hard work of beating Madars Razma this afternoon. It was a high quality match but Ratajski failed to take vital opportunities at times and had to come from behind to snatch a 10-8 win. It was anything like his performance against Aspinall last night.
Jonny Clayton was just unplayable against Dirk van Duijvenbode. He was averaging in the high hundred and teens for most of the match and Duijvenbode was playing very well but just wasn’t getting a chance a double. The Ferret simply blew away a very strong opponent. He is still only the third favourite by the way. Nuts.
This will be another big test for the Ferret, but it is hard to see anybody beating him. He is his only danger. He could run out of steam having been playing a lot of darts in the last week but winning is less tiring. He is averaging 193.4 across his two matches so, just carrying over his form from the Super Series, this is not a sudden uptick in form.
Clayton is the 1.62 favourite to win but I will be a little more ambitious and back him to have the most 180’s and win. He has been hitting the 180’s at a rate of 0.50 per leg compared to Ratajski’s very respectable 0.36.
2021 UK Open Saturday: Clayton to hit the most 180’s and win the match @ 2.25 with Betfair
Brendan Dolan vs. Simon Whitlock
Dolan beat Woodhouse 10-6 in the ended. It was all nice and nip and tuck at 6-6 and set to land the over 17.5 legs but it was The History maker who stepped up to win the last four. Dolan hasn’t done anything spectacular, that’s not his way but he is averaging 94.9 despite only hitting the 180’s at 0.15 per leg. Only Gerwyn price has a lower strike rate so far.
The Wizard is playing well, averaging 98.2 and hitting the maximums at 0.47 per leg, nearly as well as Clayton. He is a player who can down tools out of the blue and not entirely trustworthy at short odds. He is the 1.72 favourite which is fairly decent value. However, I will play in the 180 market.
Dolan likes a long match and he never gives up. Opponents often think they have him beat and take their foot of the gas only for Dolan to sneak back into the match and as a result he gets involved in a lot of last leg deciders. A longer match gives Whitlock more time to rack up more 180’s.
2021 UK Open Saturday: 1 point Whitlock to hit over 6.5 180’s at 3.00 with Ladbrokes
Chris Dobey vs. Gerwyn Price
Price is still a bit of a head scratcher. His stats are not impressive. Averaging just 96.3, hitting 180’s at 0.14 per leg and having the third worst checkout efficiency of the last 16. That said, he hasn’t been pushed. He beat Ricky Evan 10-3 today and Peter Hudson 10-5. Second gear has not been required.
Dobey is averaging 96.8 and has beaten John Brown 10-1 and John Henderson 10-6. He hasn’t had much coming back at him either. If Price really is not firing on all cylinders, then Dobey, who averaged 99 against young Brown today, has the game to take advantage a cause an up set. However if Price has just been playing possum, then he should spanked.
At odds of 1.34 for Price and 3.40 for Dobey, neither makes any appeal.
Gabriel Clemens vs. James Wade
Clemens improved on his already good record over Daryl Gurney this afternoon, winning 10-7 with a 100.8 average. He didn’t give our ante post selection many chances and broke his spirit in the end. His all round game is in good shape in all departments and so long as he does get ahead of himself, he will be hard to beat.
James Wade beat Rob Cross 10-7 despite being out scored by Cross, who, as is the norm, was very poor on the doubles and you can’t do that against Wade.
Wade must be a frustrating player to back to win tournaments. He can play a string of good matches, and then just put in a terrible display. When that will come this weekend is the unknown but if he lets his standard slip here, Clemens has the game to punish him, as he has done before.
Their tournament stats are almost identical so it should be a close match if Wade doesn’t switch off.
0.5 point Clemens to win 10-9 @ 9.50 with Betfred , Boylesports
Michael van Gerwen vs. Jose de Sousa
MVG looked much more like his old self when thrashing Suljovic 10-4 this afternoon. It was a 103 average and after going 0-2 down Van Gerwen turned on the afterburners and Suljovic had no answers. He has a brand new set of darts which seem to his liking and he will be hard to stop tonight.
De Sousa let Michael Smith beat himself, winning the match 10-9 with both players playing poorly. That is two wins in the deciding leg and to be honest, De Sousa should have lost both.
There is only one winner here.
