2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips by Dave Stevos
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips and Preview
Finally, it’s here! The Cheltenham Festival kicks off on Tuesday and it promises to be a week filled with hard-luck stories and one or two fairy-tale results. Unfortunately, there won’t be a Cheltenham Roar this year but at least racing is going ahead. The Champion Hurdle is the feature on Day 1 and you can check out my stats-based preview here. The other six races are intriguing contests too and hopefully I have uncovered some decent value each-way bets. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday tips below…
1.20: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
As ever, first up is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. It is a disappointingly small field of just 8 runners, a recurring theme throughout Day 1. The Irish will be hoping to make a scorching start with the first of their bankers, Appreciate It. Trained by Willie Mullins, who has won this race four times since 2013, this horse brings an unbeaten record over timber into the race. He has looked the real deal on soft and heavy ground, his sole defeat under rules coming in the Champion Bumper here last season.
The son of Jeremy is looking to complete a hat-trick of Grade 1 wins over timber after successive victories at the highest level at Leopardstown. He beat Ballyadam by over 3L in February (and Blue Lord by 6L). He also had Irascible 9L behind in both of those Grade 1 triumphs. Of those two, Ballyadam is the most likely to turn the form around on better ground. Whether good to soft ground will suit Appreciate It is unknown and no 7yo has won this race in over 10 years. Ballyadam hosed up by 18L on his sole start on yielding. This will be his first run on ground better than soft since then.
Metier Unproven On Ground
The home challenge is spearheaded (on paper at least) by Metier and Soaring Glory. The former is also unbeaten over hurdles after three starts. He hacked up on heavy ground in the Tolworth last time out. The worry for his supporters is this better ground. Mastercraftsman’s progeny often enjoy a lot of cut and this horse has shown his best form on the level and over hurdles on heavy. His two starts on the flat without soft in the ground description resulted in defeat. He needs more rain.
Soaring Glory was an impressive winner of the Betfair Hurdle last time out. The 6yo son of Fame And Glory hails from a shrewd yard and he wouldn’t be running unless his trainer thought he had a squeak. Unlike some of his rivals he is proven on half-decent ground. Also, his confidence should be high after his last run. However, he came up well short when he ran in a Grade 2 at Ascot in December. It remains to be seen whether he is a Grade 1 animal.
Dark Horse
For Pleasure was beaten out of sight in the Betfair Hurdle won by Soaring Glory. However, Alex Hales’ stable star had excuses. It was his first run in over three months and his running style wasn’t suited to such a big field. He was sent off at 50/1 that day too which suggests that he was going to need the run. This son of Excelebration should strip much fitter now. In what could be a tactical affair, he will be a danger to all if he is given an easy lead.
He won the Grade 2 trial for this race back in November, beating Third Time Lucki by almost 4L. That was on soft ground but five of his seven wins have come on good to soft or better. The form of his easy Stratford win on good ground has worked out well too. He conceded weight to some decent horses that day.
I am hoping that the jockeys on the more fancied horses don’t give this horse the respect he deserves and that Harry Bannister is able to poach an early and uncontested lead. If he does, For Pleasure has the ability to run a massive race and he may well be hard to peg back. At odds of 40/1 a small each-way interest is advised.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips: For Pleasure e/w @ 40/1
1.55: Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
A month or so ago this was shaping up to be one of the best races of the week. Instead we have a six-runner affair with a long odds on favourite. Shishkin is the one they all have to beat and he admittedly looks pretty bulletproof. He has had the ideal preparation with three wins in four-runner fields. More of the same could be on the cards in this race.
The son of Sholokov won the Supreme at last year’s festival and he handles all sorts of ground. He jumped slightly left-handed at a couple of fences at Doncaster the last day but apart from that he has looked a natural over the bigger fences. It will take a good one (or a jumping error) to beat him.
Allmankind To Make A Bold Bid
Allmankind is next best in the betting and he is a likeable sort. Third in last year’s Triumph, he has done nothing wrong since going chasing. A Grade 1 winner at Sandown on his penultimate outing, he had a nice prep for this when destroying a useful sort in Sky Pirate by 14L in a Grade 2 at Warwick. All ground seems to come alike to this trailblazer and he will make them all go from the front.
The Irish challenge will come from Franco De Port and Captain Guinness. The former ran a respectable race behind his stablemate Energumene last time at Leopardstown when beat 10L into 2nd. Interestingly, he was very well backed at big prices that day so he must have worked nicely in the lead-up to that race. I think Paul Townend will be happy to sit and wait off a strong pace and he could pick up the pieces if they go too quick early doors.
Jumping Worries For Captain
Captain Guinness was still going well when brought down in last season’s Supreme. It was a similar story when he fell last time at Leopardstown. He’s another one that likes to be up with the pace. However, I am not sure his jumping will stand up to this exacting test.
Eldorado Allen looks a biggish price on some of his best form. He was no match for Allmankind at Sandown in December and he was 8L behind Shishkin at Doncaster in January. However, his trainer Colin Tizzard was bang out of form back then. I would expect to see a better run from him today but he is unlikely to trouble the principals. Numitor is punching well above his weight and he will be hoping to complete and pick up the £1,745.63 prize money for finishing 6th.
Franco Looks The Value Bet
At the odds, I am going to have a speculative e/w punt on Franco De Port. The top two in the betting look the ones to be on but I think there could be more improvement to come from Willie Mullins’ sole representative. I was very impressed by the way he won on yielding ground at Leopardstown over Xmas. He likely would have finished closer to Energumene at the same track in February only for an early jumping mistake.
This race will be run at a proper gallop with Allmankind and Captain Guinness likely to force the pace. Shishkin will probably pick those two off late on but I think Franco De Port will be really suited by a fast run race too. If he puts in a clear round of jumping I think he could well sneak into the first two. At odds of 11/1 he is the each way selection.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips: Franco De Port e/w @ 11/1
2.30: Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
I was very disappointed to see just 16 runners in the final field for this race. I had my eye on Kauto Riko and Goose Man, but neither was declared. The rain that arrived at Cheltenham on Sunday night will suit some more than others. One horse that will be absolutely fine on soft (or good to soft) ground is Admiral’s Secret for Victor Dartnall and Alan Johns. This 10yo has yet to race beyond 20f in his 22 race career but I think he looks well worth trying over this type of trip.
Last time out at Warwick it looked like he was crying out for further. He absolutely flew home in that 20f race on soft ground, finishing just behind Two For Gold and Aso. He has now put together a string of six solid efforts since Dec 2019 with form figures of 221113. Admiral’s Secret is now rated 142, just 1lb higher than he was the last day and 7lb higher than he was for his last, easy win over 16f at Ludlow.
It isn’t just his last run that suggests this 25f trip might suit. There are strong signals in his pedigree too. He is by Kayf Tara, the sire of top class stayers like Thistlecrack and Planet Of Sound. His dam, Bob’s Bay, is out of a 3 mile winner and two of her half siblings won at 3 miles plus. He has yet to race at Cheltenham, which is a negative. However, if he takes to the track he could well outrun his odds of 16/1 with 7 places on offer from Skybet.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips: Admiral’s Secret e/w @ 16/1 NB (7 Places Skybet)
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday: 3.05 – Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)
The big one today, and arguably the most interesting blue riband race of the week, is the Champion Hurdle. Two miles and half a furlong await the field of just 10 runners and after the rain on Sunday night, Honeysuckle’s legion of supporters will be feeling confident. Henry De Bromhead’s winning machine is unproven on good ground, probably the only possible negative that was against her coming into this race. She gets weight from the boys and she is a worthy favourite.
Epatante is the other representative of the fairer sex in this year’s Champion Hurdle. She is back to defend the crown that she won so impressively last season. This year she looked great when returning to action at Newcastle but Silver Streak put manners on her at Kempton (16f gd/sft). If there is no more rain and there is good in the ground description on Tuesday, I see no reason why she will reverse that Kempton form. If the ground is on the soft side, she probably will.
Goshen Out For Redemption
It didn’t matter if you were cheering on the Irish or the English, I think everybody felt real sympathy for Jamie Moore after Goshen’s desperately unlucky unseat in the Triumph last year. It was a gut wrenching moment for all concerned and given how Goshen lost his form afterwards, it seemed that they had missed their chance for Cheltenham glory. However, Gary Moore has worked the oracle and the real Goshen finally showed up last time out at Wincanton (15.5f hvy).
He destroyed a pretty decent field in the Grade 2 Kingwell Hurdle by over 20 lengths. It was a career best by some way and it got connections dreaming again. Ground on the soft side looks ideal for this son of Authorized and he rates as a danger to all if he repeats the level of form he showed last time. If he did win you couldn’t begrudge him after the misfortune that befell him last season.
Two To Watch At Prices
Silver Streak is one of my favourite horses in training. He nearly always seems to give his running and when he gets his conditions he is a serious animal. If the rain had stayed away and we were racing on proper good ground I would really fancy this lad e/w. His form figures over hurdles on ground with good in the description are ridiculous and he put Epatante firmly in her place last time at Kempton. On that form alone he looks massively overpriced and if the ground dries out he holds outstanding e/w claims.
The forgotten horse this year is last year’s runner up Sharjah. He was a no show behind Honeysuckle last time out but the ground was heavy. He is a much better animal on nicer ground, as he showed when beating Aspire Tower on soft over Xmas. The son of Doctor Dino disappointed behind Honeysuckle last season before running big in the Champion Hurdle. So, it would be no surprise if this strong traveller bounces back to form. Soft/good to soft ground is absolutely fine for him and at 12/1 he definitely looks overpriced.
Abacadabras Hoping To Reproduce Cheltenham Magic
The enigma in this race is Abacadabras. Trained by Denise Foster (aka Gordon Elliott in disguise) this 7yo finished just in front of Sharjah at Leopardstown last time. He has 10L to find with Honeysuckle on that run and he is not the most consistent. However, his head defeat to Shishkin last season in the Supreme remains fresh in the memory and his season has surely been all about this race. A big run would come as no surprise.
However, I am going to go with Silver Streak and Sharjah at the prices. I don’t usually make a habit of backing two horses in a race like this but given the uncertainty about the ground I am making an exception. The drier it is, the better Silver Streak’s chance will be and with 5 places on offer from William Hill, 12/1 looks too big. If the ground stays as is, Sharjah will handle it fine and I am going to be greedy and back him for 4 places at odds of 11/1 with Betfair. Hopefully all the horses show up in top form and give us a race to remember.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday: Silver Streak e/w @ 12/1 (5 Places); Sharjah e/w @ 11/1 (4 Places)
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday – 3.40: Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Just 11 mares will be going for Grade 1 glory in this year’s Mares’ Hurdle. This race was first introduced in 2008 and in the 13 runnings since, Willie Mullins has won 9 of them. Last year he had the 2nd and 3rd. In 2019 he was desperately unlucky not to win it with final hurdle faller Benie Des Dieux.
He fires three bullets this year and Concertista is the favourite for him with Daryl Jacob in the plate. She hosed up here last season in the Mares’ Novice and her two runs this season were even better. Soft or good to soft ground is fine for the 7yo daughter of Nathaniel. She is undoubtedly the one to beat.
Roksana won this race in 2019 and last year she finished 4th behind Honeysuckle. She got to within 2L of Paisley Park at Ascot on her penultimate outing and that is arguably the best piece of form in the race. However, that run came over 3 miles, as did her last run when she beat Magic Of Light by 8L. Maybe she needs a trip these days and she might lack the turn of foot possessed by some of her speedier rivals. She doesn’t appeal at around 3/1.
Sarah Could Surprise With A Big Run
The one that could surprise with a big run at massive odds is My Sister Sarah. This mare was well beaten behind Concertista and Black Tears last time out at Leopardstown (20f sft). However, she must have had an issue because she has since had a wind op. She is most definitely a better horse than she showed that day. The run that makes her of interest in this is her excellent effort in a big handicap at Galway behind Great White Shark.
She has 2L to find with that mare today but she is 2lb better off at the weights. Flooring Porter was 7L behind My Sister Sarah in 3rd, racing off a mark of 130 with a claimer taking off 5lb. He is now rated 160 after winning a Grade 1 at Leopardstown. My Sister Sarah was conceding 12lb to him that day. She ran to a similar level of form when chasing home The Storyteller at the same track in September. Her Listed win at Limerick on her penultimate start was another super effort. I am not usually one for backing horses on their first outing after a wind procedure. However, at the prices, I’ll be making an exception in this case. At odds of 40/1 with 4 places on offer from BetVictor, My Sister Sarah is the e/w pick.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips: My Sister Sarah e/w @ 40/1 (4 Places)
4.15: Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
The one I like in this tricky handicap hurdle is Curious Bride. The defection of Tinnahalla means she gets in as first reserve. I think she could be lurking on a very dangerous mark at the foot of the weights. Noel Meade’s daughter of Excelebration was pulled up on bottomless ground last time at Navan. However, she is much better than she showed that day. She is better judged on her maiden hurdle win at Punchestown when she had Zoffanien (6L) and Coltor (10L) well behind.
She was getting 7lbs from those two geldings that day. The filly now meets Zoffanien on the same terms and she is just 3lbs worse off with Coltor. Although that win came on soft/heavy I think this horse will appreciate the better ground today. Her sole win on the flat came on good and her dam’s classy relations all preferred a bit of decent ground. When you consider that Coltor is single figure odds for this Curious Bride looks hugely overpriced at odds of 25/1. With six places on offer from various firms, she is the e/w NAP of the day.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Tuesday Tips: Curious Bride e/w @ 25/1 NAP (6 places)
4.50: National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
At odds of 33/1 I think The Mighty Don could go well in this marathon. This horse has had a mixed time of things since going chasing. He was a very useful hurdler and he was a course winner over the smaller obstacles back in October 2018. Nick Gifford’s charge produced probably his best run over timber when beat just 7L into 4th in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December of that year and he shaped as though he needed further when a respectable 8th in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the festival in 2019.
He has taken a while to get the hang of chasing and he fell a couple of times last season. However, he clearly schooled well during his break and he returned to action with a neck victory over Enrilo at Chepstow (23.5f gd). He needed every inch of the distance that day and he was doing his best work at the finish next time out over 25f (sft) at Exeter.
Strong Stayer
However, the run that really sparked my interest in him for this race was his fine 2nd to Happygolucky in a Novice Chase over 25f at this track. After getting outpaced coming down the hill The Mighty Don stayed on strongly in the closing stages. He made up a lot of ground in the last couple of furlongs and the winner of that race is the 7/2 favourite for the Ultima off a mark of 147.
The Mighty Don has an official rating of 140, which leaves him with a bit to find with the likes of Next Destination, Galvin and Escaria Ten. However, I think he could yet improve at this marathon trip and his course form is strong. The ground was too soft for him when he was pulled up over 28f at Taunton and his run at Kempton last time was likely just a prep run for this. The more the ground dries out, the better this son of Shantou’s chance will be. At odds of 33/1, he is worth backing each way.
