2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips Dave Stevos
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips and Preview
We made a blistering start on day 1 with For Pleasure nicking place money at 40s. Sharjah also ran into a place in the Champion Hurdle at 11/1 but apart from that, it was a poor afternoon. We live to fight another day though and the focus now switches to Wednesday. The Champion Chase is the main event on Day 2 and you can check out my stats based preview here. Let’s hope for much better today, check out Dave Stevos 2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday tips and preview below.
1.20: Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Even with just seven runners, this year’s Ballymore is a very interesting race. The Irish challenge is strong and the market is headed by Bob Olinger. Trained by Henry De Bromhead, this son of Sholokov has looked the real deal on heavy ground the last twice at Navan and Naas. Blue Lord was 6.5L behind him last time out at Naas. He was in the process of running a big race when falling at the final hurdle in the Supreme. He hosed up on yielding in his point to point so the ground should hold no fears.
Gaillard Du Mesnil has also won his last two, including a Grade 1 at Leopardstown in February. That win came over 22f so there are zero stamina worries for him. However, there are definitely doubts about the ground. He is a French Bred horse, by Saint Des Saints, but his dam is related to some horses that liked decent ground. So, there is a good chance he will handle it. Keskonrisk is Ireland’s other hope. His run behind Appreciate It was boosted on Tuesday. He steps up to 20.5f for the first time and if he stays he could run a big race.
Brave Heads Home Challenge
The home challenge is headed by Paul Nicholls’ exciting prospect Bravemansgame. This son of Brave Mansonnien has dotted up on his last three starts. He landed his first Grade 1 win at Newbury in December (20.5f sft). His sole defeat came on his seasonal return behind Soaring Glory, the subsequent Betfair Hurdle winner. Visually he has looked impressive but it is safe to say it was a very soft Grade 1 he won last time. He won’t mind if the ground continues to dry out and it will be fascinating to see how he fares.
However, at the prices I am going to take a chance on Bear Ghylls. He hails from the relatively small Nicky Martin yard and he remains unbeaten in four starts under rules for jockey Matt Griffiths. He won his bumper by 19L at Warwick and the runner up in that race won three of his next four starts and is now rated 135. On his next start he won a Lingfield maiden hurdle doing handstands. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th have all won races since.
He was kept to 16f for his first Novice Hurdle start and under a penalty he beat Gowel Road quite cosily by 1.5L. That horse won his next two novice hurdle starts by a combined distance of 10L. Bear Ghylls stepped up to 18f for his prep run for this and won a handicap as he liked off 135. Clearly, this is tougher but his form stacks up. If he was trained by one of the big names there is no way he would be double figure odds. With 3 places available from Betfair, Bear Ghylls is the each way NAP of the day at 16/1.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips: Bear Ghylls e/w @ 16/1 NAP (3 places betfair)
1.55: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Six have been declared for this race but in reality it is all about one horse. Irish confidence is high in Monkfish and he is long odds on to make it seven wins on the bounce for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend. He is a very short price and that is understandable given the quality of his last display when routing the opposition in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival (21f sft). He landed the Albert Bartlett here last season over 3 miles and he is fully effective at any distance from 21f upwards.
Monkfish is the top rated with an official mark of 164, 11lb higher than the next best, Sporting John. He is an interesting contender for Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson. After a couple of terrible efforts, including at the festival last year, he returned to from in some style last time out at Sandown (20f hvy). However, his sole run on good to soft ground was poor. He would probably want some rain to fall.
Best Of The Rest
Chasers from the Henry De Bromhead yard always deserve respect at this meeting and he runs Eklat De Rire. This son of Saddex is 2/2 since going chasing and 3/4 under rules overall. He has yet to encounter ground as good as this but there is hope in his pedigree that he may well handle the conditions. His half brother Damalisque has won on good to soft and his dam is related to a host of classy, good ground winners.
Colin Tizzard will be happy with how Eldorado Allen ran in the Arkle on Tuesday and he fires two bullets here. The Big Breakaway is the shortest priced of the two at 8/1 and Harry Cobden rides. This is his best trip but he is all about stamina and he would definitely prefer more testing conditions. At a bigger price Fiddlerontheroof looks a shade overpriced. Robbie Power rides and this horse pushed Next Destination all the way at Warwick last time.
Colin Tizzards’ string was badly out of form back then but they have turned the corner. When you consider that Fiddlerontheroof burst a blood vessel on his last run too it really was a good effort. Dickie Diver completes the field and he shaped well over 22f last time. He ran a nice race when 4th in the Albert Bartlett back in 2019 but he’ll need to improve 20lbs to trouble the fav.
Fighting For Places
I love trying to get favourites like Monkfish beat but I can’t find any holes in him. He has winning course form, his jumping is electric and he has a serious engine. The race looks his to lose. The question is, who will chase him home? Eklat De Rire probably has the most scope to improve but at the prices, Fiddlerontheroof has to be worth a little e/w. He is an admirably consistent type and the fact he ran so well when the Tizzard yard was clearly under a cloud shows he has an excellent attitude. With the first time tongue tied applied he could well outrun his odds of 33/1.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips: Fiddlerontheroof e/w @ 33/1
2.30: Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
There is a maximum field of 26 due to go to post for the Coral Cup and it is an absolute minefield. I am going to back two and the first one I am interested in is Botox Has. The Moores will be reeling after Goshen’s antics in the Champion Hurdle. However, this 5yo son of Dream Well could give them some compensation. This horse has a superb record at Cheltenham. He chased home the talented Allmankind on his UK debut at the track in November 2019 (16.5f sft) and he made no mistake when beating Langer Dan on good ground next time.
Gary Moore’s charge returned to action at Cheltenham in October and landed a Class 2 hurdle by 4L. He was far from disgraced on his handicap debut off 146 at Newbury on his next start, beat 5L by Floressa. Heavy ground was no good for him at Ascot the next day and he shaped better at the same track when upped to 19f for the first time. He only finished 6th but he finished off his race nicely and it was surely a prep run for this race. With course figures of 211 this has likely been the target all season. He surely holds solid e/w claims at odds of 16/1 off a mark of 142.
River Could Get Rolling On Better Ground
I also can’t let Nelson River go unbacked off a mark of 133. This is a horse I have followed (to some expense) ever since his super run in the Triumph back in 2019. He probably paid the price for that run with an inflated mark of 142. However, he wasn’t disgraced off that rating on handicap debut at Newbury (16.5f gd) when beat 7L. He had a couple of spins on the flat that summer and he returned to hurdling with a very respectable effort when 4th off 138 at Ascot on ground plenty soft for him.
The ground was too soft for him again next time at Cheltenham when well beat off 136 over 17f. He bounced back from that poor run with a nice win on the all weather over 16f on the level. That run suggests that he is well worth trying over today’s 21f trip. You can forget his last two runs as Tony Carroll most likely had his eyes set on this race. He is now 9lb lower than when running so well on handicap debut. The drying ground is going to suit and he has winning course form. I think there are enough positives to warrant a small each way bet at odds of 100/1.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips: Botox Has e/w 16/1 (5 Places); Nelson River e/w 100/1 (7 Places)
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday: 3.05 – Champion Chase (Grade 1)
Honeysuckle ensured Irish eyes were smiling on Tuesday in the big one and in the Champion Chase they will be relying on Chacun Pour Soi. This horse has long been thought of as a potential Champion Chaser and he won’t get many better chances than this. He was a late non-runner last season but it looks like everything has gone smoothly this time. The defection of Altior seemingly makes his task even easier. However, there is one huge negative that cannot be ignored.
When writing a stats based preview for this race I realised that every single winner of this race since 2009 had previously run at Cheltenham. This will be Chacun Pour Soi’s first ever visit. He has looked like a superstar at Leopardstown admittedly. However, he hasn’t looked like the strongest of finishers and he could well be vulnerable coming up the famous Cheltenham hill. At the odds I would definitely be a layer rather than a backer.
Kettle To Come To The Boil
Put The Kettle on proved no match for Chacun Pour Soi last time but that was at Leopardstown. She will be much more at home on this track where she has yet to taste defeat. She pulled off a shock win in the Arkle last season but there was no fluke about it. Henry De Bromhead’s mare should be even better on this type of ground (it was soft last year) and I think she has outstanding claims.
Nube Negra lowered the colours of Altior last time and he is an exciting prospect. The 7yo son of Dink is trained by Dan Skelton and he is a proper dark horse. Drying ground will be absolutely fine for him and if he can reproduce the form he showed at Kempton he could give them all something to think about.
Forgotten Horse
With all the hype surrounding the fav, Politologue somehow comes into this race under the radar. Paul Nicholls’ star is the defending Champion but it has to be said that it was an extremely weak renewal. This is going to be a much tougher task and the 10yo is probably playing for place money at best. Rouge Vif is another talented sort and the more the ground dries out, the better chance he has. Harry Whittington’s charge has won easily the last two times he raced on ground with good in the description, including a 7L defeat of Nube Negra at Warwick (16f gd/sft).
First Flow did us a big favour when winning at Ascot last time so he owes us nothing. However, he is a proper mudlark and on this type of ground he might find things happening too quickly for him. Cilaos Emery has Grade 1 winning form over hurdles on decent ground and he is 4/6 over fences. He has failed to fire on two previous visits to Cheltenham though and he is overlooked.
The Verdict
Chacun Pour Soi is clearly a very talented animal but the fact he hasn’t run at Cheltenham before is very off-putting. He could easily lead these on a merry dance but at the odds, I am taking him on. Put The Kettle on loves it at Cheltenham and her season has surely revolved around this race. I think she won in spite of the soft ground last season and this sounder surface will suit much better. At 9/1 it is hard to see how she finishes out of the frame.
The other interesting one at much bigger odds is Rouge Vif. If you consider how easily he beat Nube Negra when they met earlier in the season he shouldn’t be nearly triple the price of that horse. His form figures on ground with good in the description read 1211121. He also ran a creditable race in 3rd behind Put The Kettle on in last season’s Arkle on unsuitably testing ground. He could sneak into the frame again today and a small each way bet is advised at 28/1.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday: Put The Kettle On e/w @ 9/1; Rouge Vif e/w @ 28/1
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday – 3.40: X-Country Chase (Class 2)
Last year’s facile winner of this race, Easysland, is back to try and repeat the trick for France. Trained by David Cottin, Felix De Giles takes over in the saddle. He came into last year’s race on the crest of a wave. The son of Gentlewave had won all four of his starts last season prior to scoring in this. This year he has had just one run and that resulted in defeat in a C&D handicap. It was still a very good performance when you consider he was conceding almost two stone to the three horses that finished in front of him. With improvement likely, he looks by far the most likely winner.
Can Tiger Bounce Back?
Tiger Roll, withdrawn from the Grand National, will be trying to regain his crown. The 2018 and 2019 winner has struggled so far this season though. It could be that he simply isn’t as good as he was. He was pulled up here in November when running a lifeless race. In his prep run at Navan he was 65L behind Beacon Edge on heavy ground. The conditions were a valid excuse last time but the ground was ideal for him in November when he just didn’t look like he was enjoying himself. Keith Donoghue is likely to have him well schooled but at odds of 5/1 he is too risky a proposition.
King Is Tempting At A Price
At massive odds I think King’s Temptation could go well. Trained by Ben Case, Bryan Carver takes the ride and he is 2/2 on this fella in chases. This son of King’s Theatre had his first run over the cross country fences in the race in which Easysland was 4th. He seemed to really enjoy himself. Kielan Woods rode him on that occasion and while he did make one serious mistake at the 16th, apart from that he took to the fences well. He lost a lot of momentum when making that jumping error but he stuck to the task to grab 6th, 9 lengths behind Easysland.
Ben Case put this horse away after that good run and he reappeared with a pipe opener in a jumpers’ bumper at Lingfield last month. That should put him spot on and he will be reunited with Bryan Carver on Wednesday. With a rating of 135 he clearly needs to improve but that is entirely possible now that he has experience of this unique test.
This horse is ground dependent and he needs it good to show his best. It had dried out to good to soft, soft in places by 6pm on Tuesday evening. The forecast is for dry weather and it will hopefully be closer to good by the time they go to post. Plenty of those at shorter prices have questions to answer. A few of them have never even run over this type of course before. If the ground dries out sufficiently and King’s Temptation puts in a slicker round of jumping, he could well stay on late for place money at odds of 100/1.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips: King’s Temptation e/w @ 100/1 (4 Places)
4.15: Grand Annual Chase (Grade 3)
I had my eye on Theinval for this race but unfortunately he was withdrawn on Tuesday. One that has a similar profile and who looks equally overpriced is Bun Doran for Tome George and Jonathan Burke. This 10yo loves it at Cheltenham and he has a good festival record. Bun Doran finished 3rd in the Champion Chase in 2020, in 2019 he chased home Croco Bay in this race off 148 and in 2017 he finished 6th in a Novices Handicap over a trip that stretches him.
He has had a quiet season so far but it looks to me like connections have been trying to get him handicapped. He was never sighted on his seasonal return at Exeter. The son of Shantou was beat out of sight at Cheltenham over 20f on soft on his penultimate start.
Last time he was pulled up in a soft ground Grade 1 at Ascot. The handicapper has now dropped him a total of 10lbs for those three runs. He is back for a repeat bid in the Grand Annual off just 2lb higher than when 2nd in 2019. His last handicap run off 150 resulted in a short head reversal at Newbury. Given his recent form figures of 75P it is understandable that the bookies have completely written him off. However, this C&D brings out the best in him and I think a huge run could be on the cards at odds of 33/1.
2021 Cheltenham Festival Wednesday Tips: Bun Doran e/w @ 33/1 NB (6 Places)
4.50: Champion Bumper (Grade 1)
The Champion Bumper closes the show on Wednesday and it is an unusually small field of just 15. Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott (aka Sneezy Foster) have won the last four renewals between them and they are well represented again today. They supply 7 of the 15 runners, Mullins with 5 and Elliott/Foster with 2.
Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard head the market for Mullins and they both hold obvious chances. Three Stripe Life is next best in the betting for Sneezy Foster and the shortest priced home challenger is Elle Est Belle for the Skeltons. To be brutally honest, I have zero interest in having a bet on this race. Bumpers just don’t do it for me and I’m happy to be sitting this one out. No bet.
