2021 Bahrain GP Tips and Preview

The long wait is finally over! James Punt has already written an extensive F1 season preview and you can check it out via this link. Now you can read his thoughts on the first race of the season. Check out his 2021 Bahrain GP Tips and preview below…

2021 Bahrain GP Preview

Usually we have the opening race in Melbourne, Australia, However, this year Bahrain is the venue for the opening race. It will be held on the regular Grand Prix circuit and not the outer perimeter layout used for the penultimate race of 2020.

The last race over this lay out in late November was made famous by the horrific accident which saw Romain Grosjean’s Haas explode after he lost control and hit a crash barrier at high speed. After an 80 minute delay, the race was restarted but another safety car was required after Lance Stroll’s Racing Point was flipped upside down after hitting another car. Bottas’ Mercedes then suffered a puncture and he had to pit and dropped down the order. Hamilton opened up a lead over Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez.

Perez’ car suffered a power unit failure and caught fire. This brought out another safety car which lasted until the end of the race, with Hamilton the winner with the two Red Bulls in second and third. Bottas never recovered from his earlier problem and finished a distant eighth place. A very dramatic race with a familiar conclusion.

Preseason Test Form Clues

The Preseason test was held on this track two weeks ago. While testing can only ever be a rough guide to the likely form of an actual race, at least we have something to go on.

Past form here in the turbo hybrid era has seen Mercedes win five of the seven races with four wins for Hamilton and one for Rosberg, while Sebastian Vettel won two for Ferrari. Charles Leclerc was on course to win for Ferrari in 2019 before a power unit problem dropped him to third place. Bahrain has not been a happy hunting ground for Red Bull in the turbo hybrid era. Their double podium finish last year was their first Bahrain GP podium finish.

Other notable records are Pierre Gasly who has a finishing record of 4/8/6 from his three starts, Lando Norris who has finished fourth and sixth from his two starts and Esteban Ocon who has manged a top ten from all three of his starts.

McLaren have shown notable improvement here with finishes of 7th and 8th in 2018, 6th in 2019 and 4th and 5th last year. Otherwise it is a race dominated by Mercedes and Ferrari.

High Hopes For Red Bull

The recent test will have given hope to Red Bull that they can go one better this year and win the race. Verstappen had a good test, setting the only sub 1.29.0 lap and getting good mileage into his car. Mercedes struggled with a poor handling car and also with poor reliability. Hamilton’s best time was over a second slower than Verstappen. He was also on a softer tyre than the Red Bull driver set his time on.

It may well be that Hamilton was carrying more fuel and/or running with a lower power unit mode. But, there was no disguising that the Mercedes handled like a shopping trolley. The team will have had two weeks to find the problem and try and find a cure. We will find out on Saturday if they have succeeded. I covered the matter in the preseason preview a couple of days ago and I remain sceptical that Mercedes were just sandbagging and that they will turn up and blow everyone away. That said I do not expect Mercedes to be a second off the pace either.

The Red Bull looked the best car in testing,.They got all their work done and are very well prepared for the opening race, not something we have seen in recent years. The all-new Honda power unit is said to be a serious improvement on last year’s model. Not only more powerful and reliable, but significantly smaller.

Better Aerodynamics

Honda had been commissioned by McLaren to build a ‘size zero’ power unit when they lured Honda back into F1. That turned out to be a disaster and it took a number of years just to get to respectability in terms of performance. This year they have surpassed the size zero concept. This in turn has allowed the Red Bull to have tighter packaging and better aero performance.

Max Verstappen’s record in Bahrain does not inspire confidence. However, much of that can be blamed on poor machinery so this weekend looks like his first real chance to win a Bahrain GP.

Red Bull are not the only team running the upgraded Honda power unit. Sister team Alpha Tauri also get the benefit and they were another team who looked very good at the test.

The AT02 is said to be very driver friendly and even Japanese rookie Yuki Tsunoda had very few problems getting to grips with his new car. He ended up second fastest at the test, but he did have the benefit of running when the track was at its best and used a lot of DRS.

Course Form For Gasly

Pierre Gasly has a good track record here, finishing 4th for Toro Rosso in his debut season being his best result. So long as Alpha Tauri were not running on fumes at the test, we must consider Gasly and Tsunoda as contenders for big points this weekend. Like Red Bull, they are very well prepared for this opening race.

Ferrari will be a lot better than their 10th and 13th here last year. Their new power unit has removed their problems with straight line speed, which is important for this track. Where they will actually fit in on the pecking order is very hard to say but it has been a reasonably good venue for them in the past and they have a good driver line up. If Mercedes continue to struggle with their handling then a podium is a possibility, but that can be said about Alpha Tauri and McLaren.

Now that McLaren has the Mercedes power unit, they have all the boxes ticked. They are financially stronger than last year, and their driver line up remains strong with the very experienced Ricciardo replacing Carlos Sainz. The team has recruited wisely and their return to the top is progressing in an orderly manner. Their test went well, and they are in the hunt for a podium.

Alfa Romeo Could Impress

One other team who impressed at the test was Alfa Romeo. Their 2020 season was a write off thanks to the terrible Ferrari power unit, but with a stronger version for this year, they look ready to re-join the midfield, a very crowded midfield. Along with Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo completed the most laps at the test which is encouraging. Back in their days as Sauber, they often started the season strongly. Making sure they had a reliable car and often picked up early points as other teams suffered poor reliability.

The driver line up of Raikkonen and Giovinazzi isn’t the greatest it must be said, but Raikkonen has a ton of experience and Giovinazzi at least has a couple of full seasons under his belt, and he was starting to show some signs of better form last year, at times.

The Weather

The weather forecast for the weekend looks challenging for the engineers. It will be warm and dry for all three days but quite windy, especially in the afternoon. On Sunday it will be very windy. The direction of the wind will also be different on each day meaning that how the car handles will be different every day. At least all the teams got a taste of these conditions on the first two days of the recent test so they will have some idea of what to expect.

Windy conditions may be bad news for Mercedes and Williams in particular. Mercedes have often struggled in windy conditions while Williams aerodynamic package this year is said, by the team, to be very sensitive to windy weather.

Poor Record For Hamilton

One thing about the opening races that does standout is Lewis Hamilton’s record. He has only won two of the fourteen opening races he has contested and just one in the turbo hybrid era. Of course, twelve of those races where in Australia and it may be that Hamilton just doesn’t get on with Albert Park.

The two other races which were not in Australia, were here in Bahrain in 2010 when Hamilton was 3rd for a reasonably competitive McLaren and 4th in Austria last season. Hamilton had qualified second but received a three place grid penalty and started 5th. He was running in second but received a 5 second penalty for a tangle with Alex Albon which resulted in an official placing of 4th.

Betting in the opening race of the season is often fraught with danger. Testing times can be misleading but at least this year, the opening race is on the same track as the test, and I think we should give it more credence than if we were starting off in Australia.

Verstappen Heads The 2021 Bahrain GP Market

Max Verstappen is a best price 2.62 favourite; Lewis Hamilton is drifting and can be backed at 2.88 while Bottas and Perez can be backed at 8.00. There is then a big jump to Daniel Ricciardo at 34.00. Bahrain is a heavy breaking circuit and Ricciardo has said that this is an area where he still getting used to the feel of the McLaren brakes. Perez in the Red Bull says that he needs a round five races until he will be driving instinctively in his new surroundings.

This race and the betting going on around it, is all about Mercedes. The market has decided that Red Bull is the better car, but obviously not by much, despite what we saw in testing. The market is refusing to believe that Mercedes can have a big problem. It is a bit like when Michael Schumacher returned to F1 with Mercedes, back in the pre turbo hybrid days, when Mercedes was not the winning machine they have become. The fact that Schumacher was then the winning most driver in history meant that he was priced up like he was driving his winning Ferrari. He wasn’t and in three years with Mercedes, he failed to win a race and only managed a solitary podium in three years.

It took people a while to accept the fact that things were different. It may be the same kind of thing here. Despite evidence to suggest that Mercedes are starting with a car that may not even be the second-best car on the grid, the market says that Red Bull are only marginal favourites.

Mercedes May Take Time To Hit Top Form

It is worth being open to the possibility that Mercedes may take a little time to find a solution to their handling problems. That with new regulations limiting their wind tunnel time, their CFD programs and indeed their budget, that Mercedes may be reluctant to throw the kitchen sink at fixing this year’s car, when the reality is that it is next year’s car which is MUCH more important.

If it is some minor problem which is easily fixed, we will find out on Saturday. It was one lap pace that Mercedes struggled. Their long run pace was better and qualifying will be the acid test. If they are still struggling on low fuel runs, the problem remains.

If it means they have to go back to the wind tunnel and use up a lot of valuable resources? Maybe they will just say the job is a bad one, try and mitigate against it, but not to derail plans for the all-important major changes in 2022.

Interesting Weekend

This is what makes this weekend so interesting. There is doubt about Mercedes, which has rarely been the case for the last six or seven years. If they are still struggling come qualifying, their odds will drift, and others will tumble. It is not inconceivable that Mercedes will find themselves battling McLaren, Ferrari and Alpha Tauri for a second-row spot and it is worthwhile thinking who might be able to take advantage of any Mercedes weakness.

Red Bull are the obvious choice to win the race. They have a fast, stable and reliable car and two great drivers. Perez will not be quite up to speed as it is his first race in a new car, but Verstappen knows all the systems and looks ready to win.

2021 Bahrain GP Tips: 3 points Max Verstappen to win the Bahrain GP @ 2.62 with William Hill

McLaren have the same power unit as Mercedes and a car with no obvious handling problems. Their one lap pace was competitive compared to Mercedes but may be a little slower on long runs. Norris has performed well here before, and with Ricciardo still settling in, he must be on the shortlist to have good weekend.

2021 Bahrain GP Tips: 1 point Lando Norris to finish on the podium @ 7.00 generally available

The Alpha Tauri team where very happy after testing and while Tsunoda’s headline time on the final day may be a little flattering, there is no doubting that they have a quick car with no obvious vices. There are some saying their long run pace may not be as competitive as their qualifying pace, but we will not know that until Sunday. Pierre Gasly was a much-improved driver on his return to Alpha Tauri.

He was not ready for a being a teammate to Max Verstappen in a hard to drive Red Bull and his confidence was restored by moving to a lower profile role at Alpha Tauri. His win at the Italian GP was fortuitous but the second half of the season saw three more top 6 finishes. Gasly has always driven well here with two top 6 finishes and an 8^th. In what looks like the best car he has driven so far, that should be the ballpark for him to aim for.

2021 Bahrain GP Tips: 2 points Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 2.50 with Unibet

Alpha Tauri have never been closer to Red Bull and with Red Bull looking to be top of the class, that is no bad thing. The new, improved Honda power unit is a further positive. There is no reason not to believe that Alpha Tauri have taken a step forward relative to the rest of the field and they look to be in a good position to have a successful opening race.

With very windy conditions forecast for race day, a stable, well balanced car will be an asset. Their reliability in testing was excellent which is another plus for the first race of the season. Having a rookie in one of their cars is a negative, but Tsunoda had his last four races in F2 at this circuit.

OK two were over the outer perimeter lay out, but that shares much of the GP track. He then got in a lot of laps on the GP track at the recent test. He is a lot better prepared for a race here than he would have been in Melbourne.

Marginal Value

I was very tempted to back the Japanese star in the making to arrive on the F1 stage with a bang but decided to back the experience of Gasly instead. Tsunoda is just 1.62 to finish in the points and that only looks very marginal value wise.

With reliability being one of the most striking things about the recent test it must be worth looking at the number of classified finishers market. All the teams will have a lot of relevant data for the track and even the very windy conditions forecast. The track itself is not one that severely punishes mistakes. There are generous run off area’s and five of the seven races in the turbo hybrid era has seen three or fewer retirements.

2021 Bahrain GP Tips: 2 points over 16.5 classified finishers @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betvictor

Alfa Romeo can cash in on their much-improved Ferrari power unit and excellent reliability. Kimi Raikkonen was 7^th for Alfa Romeo here in 2019 and after a strong test here, they look in much better shape this year. While there are question marks over Aston Martin and Mercedes, Alfa could grind out a points finish with Raikkonen.

2021 Bahrain GP Tips: 1 point Kimi Raikkonen to finish in the points @ 4.33 with Betvictor, William Hill, Skybet

 

Race day tips will be posted straight on to the TXAPP.

-JamesPunt