Doncaster and Newbury Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Doncaster and Newbury Saturday Tips
Last Sunday was one of the most frustrating days I’ve had punting in some time. That’s Mad missed out on a place by a head and could have easily finished 2nd. Our 40/1 fancy Pale Iris was only a length off third and she found all sorts of trouble in running. The Blue Panther was also denied a clear run but Salvucci was poor and had no excuses. In From The Cold at least grabbed a place for us in the Lincoln at 28/1. The final two races summed up the day with Dragon Of Malta and Celtic Manor missing out on places narrowly. Let’s hope for a change in fortune tomorrow, check out Dave Stevos’ Doncaster and Newbury Saturday tips below…
1.45 Kempton: Magnolia Stakes (Listed)
First up live on ITV racing on Saturday is the 10f, Listed Magnolia Stakes. Only five go to post and all bar one look to have a chance. Stormy Antarctic is an old favourite of mine but he surely has bigger prizes in mind later in the season on soft ground. Global Giant is the favourite for John and Thady Gosden at around 10/11. He is best treated by the conditions of the race with a rating of 113 and he could prove hard to beat. The likes of Faylaq and Sky Defender would need to improve on past form to land this and to be honest, I have zero interest in this race as a betting heat. No bet.
Kempton Saturday Racing: No Bet
2.00 Doncaster: Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed)
The first turf flat race of the season live on ITV is the Listed Doncaster Mile. A respectable field of 11 will go to post and I think Beat Le Bon holds serious each way claims. This horse is rated 106 (down from 110) after a trio of all-weather runs this year. He failed to trouble the judge in any of them, though his run at Newcastle off 107 behind Tadleel was a fine effort. Those three spins should have him piping fit for his return to the turf and the ground has come right for him.
His last start on turf on resulted in a cracking 2nd behind Regal Reality in a Salisbury Group 3. The quicker the ground is, the more it will suit this fella. Judging by the video posted by Roger Fell on social media, Doncaster is like a road at the moment. Of those at shorter prices, only Father Of Jazz has a recent run. Beat Le Bon should have a fitness edge over a few of his rivals. He has placed course form in the book too. 16/1 looks a big price and at those odds, Beat Le Bon is well worth chancing each way.
Doncaster and Newbury Saturday: Beat Le Bon e/w @ 16/1
2.15 Kempton: Rosebery Handicap (Class 2)
We head back to Kempton for the third live ITV race of the day, an 11f handicap. At a big price I think Lawn Ranger could go well for Attwater and Muscutt. This 6yo son of Cityscape has yet to win at this track. However, he has run plenty of creditable races in defeat. He is in off a mark of 92 today, just 2lb higher than the rating he last won off at Chester back in August. He was beat a short head on his next run at the same track off 92. So, he has already proved he can compete off his current rating.
This horse is a confirmed front runner so his draw in stall 3 is a positive. It is his first run since November but he has gone well on his seasonal comebacks in the past. He was 3rd over C&D on his return to action in 2019 and he was again 3rd (off 92) on his seasonal bow in 2020. Michael Attwater had one go very close last week that was returning from a similar absence. So hopefully, this horse is ready to rock and roll. He is unlikely to face much competition for the lead and while he is more exposed than some of his younger rivals, I think he could nick some place money at odds of 25/1.
Kempton Saturday Racing: Lawn Ranger e/w @ 25/1
Doncaster and Newbury Saturday 2.25: Spring Mile (Class 2)
Next up is the consolation race for the horses that failed to make it into the Lincoln. The Spring Mile is still well worth winning and a maximum field of 22 will line up in the stalls. Unlike the big one, low draws have proved favourable in this race in recent years. However, it is probably more important to be drawn close to the pace than drawn low. The pace angles in this race are Overwrite (stall 20), Dawaaleeb (12), Artistic Rifles (21) and Howzer Black (4).
So, I would imagine that a middle to high draw will be best in this year’s renewal and I think that it may well set up for a closer. One horse that likes to be held up off a strong pace and who has a nice draw in stall 15 is Queen’s Sargent. Trained by Kevin Ryan, this son of Kendargent ran a cracker to finish a close 4th off 86 in a 7f Doncaster handicap on his final start of last season. Yes, that came on heavy but three of his four career wins came on good or better.
All of his wins have come at 7/7.5f and he has yet to win in three starts at a mile. However, he was beat only 0.5L over 8f at Thirsk back in June. The way he finishes his races over 7f suggests that he should have no problems winning over an extra furlong. Queen’s Sargent was only 0.5L behind Tadleel on his return to action last season, and his form figures overall on his seasonal comebacks read 133. This race should be run to suit and at odds of 18/1 he looks like a cracking e/w bet.
Doncaster and Newbury Saturday: Queen’s Sargent e/w @ 18/1 NB (6 Places)
2.50 Newbury: Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
I tipped up Press Your Luck at 40/1 at Sandown a couple of weeks ago when he was a non-runner. The following week he turned up at Kempton and he was still travelling strongly when brought down by a faller three hurdles from home. I can’t say for certain that he would have won but he almost certainly would have played a part in the finish. He now drops back to 18f from 21f and he should love the good to soft ground at Newbury.
He races off a rating of 129 and as I outlined when tipping him up previously, that mark looks more than fair. The form of his Newton Abbott novice win has worked out extremely well. He had excuses when pulled up in a G2 at Ascot (soft ground) and when well beat on the all-weather returning from a break. Last time he was brought down by a faller and he can’t be blamed for that. He needs nice ground and I would think his trainer has geared him towards a Spring campaign. Chris Gordon’s horses are running well, Tom Cannon takes the ride and at odds of 25/1, Press Your Luck could surprise a few with a big run on handicap debut.
Doncaster and Newbury Saturday: Press Your Luck e/w @ 25/1
3.10 Doncaster: Lincoln Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
We landed a nice place in the Irish version of this race last weekend so hopefully we can repeat the trick today. I have had my eye on a horse for this race for a couple of weeks and I was delighted to see him sneak in. Scottish Summit may be an 8yo and he may be running off a career high mark. However, on the evidence of his comeback run at Wolverhampton, he could still have more improvement to come.
This son of Shamardal has been something of a late bloomer for Geoffrey Harker. He achieved a rating of 89 back in late 2018 but he took his form to a new level last season. Scottish Summit started out off a mark of 83 and finished 3rd on the all-weather at Newcastle. He followed that up with a string of placed efforts before finally getting his head in front at Redcar off 86.
Career Best
He ran poorly upped to 10f next time at York but it was much more like it back at 8f when he hosed up off 89 at Newmarket. That was a clear career best up to that point. However, I think his last run at Wolverhampton was even better off a mark of 96. This fella likes to be up with the pace so it was surprising to see Sam James take a pull after he broke so well. As they turned for home none travelled better than Scottish Summit and he flew home under an extremely tender ride to finish 6th.
He was only 1.5L behind the winner Born To Be Alive and he is 5lb better off with that rival today. In my opinion, if Sam James had ridden this fella the way he usually does he would have won that race easily. Off the same mark today I think he could run a massive race at odds of 28/1. Also, I wouldn’t put you off doing a small e/w ‘Spring Double’ on this fella and Alpha Des Obeaux at 66s (NRNB) in the Grand National. If they both manage to place it would be a lovely touch and if they both win….it’ll be quids in big style!
Doncaster Saturday Tip: Scottish Summit e/w @ 28/1 NAP (6 Places)
Spring Double: Scottish Summit (28/1 6 places) and Alpha Des Obeaux e/w for the Grand National (66/1 5 places NRNB) Double
3.25 Newbury: Mares’ Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)
The only Graded jumps race on ITV racing today is this Grade 2 novice handicap for the mares. The trip is 20.5f and a field of 13 will fight it out for some precious black type. Dragon Bones landed a nice touch for us a couple of weeks ago at Doncaster at 40/1 and the horse that finished 3rd behind her that day, Alpha Carinae, is interesting dropped half a mile in trip. This daughter of Robin Des Champs won her maiden over 20f at Perth and she ran with credit over the distance under a penalty when 2nd at Market Rasen.
Both those wins came on nice ground but she didn’t take to the track next time when well beat at Warwick. It was much more like it last time out at Doncaster over 24f when it looked like the trip might have just stretched her slightly. It was her first run back from a three month break too so she is entitled to come on plenty for it. I don’t think a mark of 124 is unfair at all given her overall form and her yard is in sparkling form at the moment. With 4 places on offer from multiple firms, Alpha Carinae is the e/w pick at odds of 18/1.
Doncaster and Newbury Saturday: Alpha Carinae e/w @ 18/1 (4 Places)
Doncaster and Newbury Saturday 3.45: Cammidge Trophy (Listed)
The last live race of the day on ITV this Saturday is this Listed sprint over 6f. Brando, who so nearly landed a monster touch for us at 80/1 back in October at Ascot, is the 10/3 favourite. However, he would definitely prefer better ground and chances are that he may need the run now he is a 9yo. At the odds I am going to take a chance on Chiefofchiefs for Charlie Fellowes and Jamie Spencer. This horse goes very well when fresh and he will be suited by conditions at Doncaster.
He won a valuable Ascot handicap on his return last season and he also won on his first start of 2019 after a six month absence. The son of Royal Applause signed off last term with a fine effort in a listed heat over today’s C&D on soft. Today’s ground should suit him much better. With a rating of 99 he does have a bit to find at the figures with some of the more fancied horses. However, this should be run at a good clip and that will play to Chiefofchiefs’ strengths. If he gets luck in running and Jamie Spencer can find the gaps at the right time, this fella could easily sneak into the frame at odds of 14/1.
