2021 US Masters Tips and Preview by James Punt
2021 US Masters Tips and Preview
It is less than 5 months since last seasons delayed Masters was won By Dustin Johnson. The 2021 US Masters is now restored to its rightful place on the sporting calendar. We will also see the return of spectators, or Patrons as they like to say here, back to shout mashed potato and You da man. Wonderful.
This is the only major to be played on the same course every year. It has the smallest field, which includes past winners who are only here to enjoy the experience, a free dinner but have no chance of victory.
Johnson is aiming to become the first player to defend his Masters title since Tiger Woods did it in 2001/02.
Course Form Key
Course form is particularly important when it comes to Augusta. It is a course apart, a genuine tough test of a players all round game. It is a very undulating course and experience of how to play it, where to aim at off the tee and into the green is a must. The greens are super quick and leaving downhill putts makes life difficult. The more experienced player will know that it is often better to be 20 feet away with an uphill put, than 6 feet away with a tricky downhiller.
The course also plays particularly long. The grass being mown with the knap facing the tee, making it difficult to get much run on the ball. As a result, it plays more like 7800 yards than the 7475 on the scorecard. There is very little in the way of rough on the course. However, accuracy will be rewarded for those players who can place their shots in the optimal positions on the fairways and greens.
Scrambling Skills Required
Good scrambling skills are necessary as there are a lot of run off areas which test the players in that area. Most US courses have rough around the greens which just requires the ubiquitous flop shot. However, here you can putt, it chip and run it or flop it,. But, you have to think about your options and hit the right zone.
The greens are as undulating as the fairways and the fastest that any golfer will play on. Experience and confidence with the putter is another must.
Course form is important but so is recent form. Ignore the form of last weekend’s Texas Open. Your selection should have been showing good form prior to arriving at Augusta.
With the arrival of the power hitter era, Augusta was constantly lengthened to ‘Tiger proof’ it. The logic that long hitters were winning the Masters so we will make it longer has resulted in, longer hitters being favoured. Shorter hitters have won it but the last was Zach Johnson back in 2007. The course was again extended in 2008. Since then, the winners have tended to come from the top third in the big hitter’s department. Those are the players who can hit the par 5’s in two shots and that means more birdie opportunities.
They are also play more lofted clubs into the greens on the par 4’s and have that bit more control on approach. The par fives offer the most obvious scoring opportunities. However, it is playing the par fours that is the bread and butter of building a winning score.
2021 US Masters: The Shortlist
Dustin Johnson ticks all the right boxes. The one negative is the record of players defending their title here. Only three players have done it. Nicklaus, Faldo and Woods. If you put Dusty in that ultra-elite group and think odds of 10.00 are acceptable, then fire away. He has a lot in his favour. Johnson has played in ten Masters and averages 71 per round.
Xander Schauffele is another who has the profile of a Masters winner. However, winning is not something thing that he excels at. His recent form sees two second places and his best result here was runner up in 2019. He is too often the bridesmaid. He has four career tournament wins but ten second places. This season he is yet to win but has had three second places. He might come second again but there are better bets.
Rory McIlroy has six top 10 finishes here and needs the win the complete a Career Slam. He has three recent top 10’s but his game is in a state of flux. He has taken a new coach to try and find the missing piece of the jigsaw and while he may have another good run, his confidence could be higher.
Rahm Knocking On The Door
Jon Rahm has been knocking on the door here for the last three years, finishing 4/9/7. He has yet to break his duck in the majors which counts against him, as does his lack of a recent win. However, he became a first-time dad on April 4th. Could he ‘do a Willet’ and win the Masters just after he became a father?
Bryson DeChambeau certainly has the power to be aggressive here. He is in good form, but his course record sees a 2016 21st place finish as his best result.
Justin Thomas is in good form having won the recent Players Championship. Nobody gets more birdies than JT and while his course record isn’t the best, he has improved his finishing position every year and was fourth last year. He has most boxes ticked but can be a little iffy off the tee at times.
Reed Looks Interesting
Patrick Reed is a past winner, is in good form and plays hard courses well. There are worse bets around at around 26.00. His record here is mixed. He won in 2018 and was tenth last year but he has two missed cuts, and three midfield finishes as well. He plays par 4’s very well and that is the meat and drink of success at Augusta. Reed is also ranked first for shots gained for putting, second for birdie average and won the Farmers Insurance Open earlier in the year.
2021 US Masters Tip: 1 point e/w Patrick Reed to win the Masters @ 29.00 with William Hill (1/5th the odds 1-9)
The winner of the warm-up event for the Masters, in this year’s case, the Texas Open, has a poor record in terms of doubling up and winning the Masters. This year it is Jordan Spieth who carries this particular curse. His win in Texas was his first since he won the Open Championship in 2017. From world number 1 he very nearly dropped out of the top 100 in the rankings. He had been showing good form recently and was on my shortlist for this event for a while.
Spieth is an Augusta specialist, winning the Masters in 2015, being runner up in 2014 and 2016 with a third place in 2018. He really should have gone back-to-back and won it in 2016 but he famously had a mare on the final round and let Danny Willet take an unlikely win. From his 28 competitive rounds here, he averages 70.46. From the players playing this week with more than one Masters appearance, only Jon Rahm and Tony Finau have a lower average 18 hole score.
Well Backed
Spieth is now the 12.00 third favourite for the tournament and I will take on the curse of the warmup winner. Spieth needed a win to fully restore his confidence. He will now feel like a winner, like someone who belongs at the top of the game and he now returns to his favourite venue. In his first four Masters, eleventh place was his worst result and even during his wilderness years, he finished 21st and 49th in 2019 and 2020.
Spieth was very comfortable on the final day in Texas, always in the lead and enjoying the experience. It wasn’t a gruelling nail bitter and mentally it should not have taken much out of him, but it will have boosted his confidence massively.
2021 US Masters Tip: 1 point e/w Jordan Spieth to win the Masters @ 12.00 with William Hill (1/5th the odds 1-9)
Brooks Koepka has had his injury problems and that required surgery, but he has already won a tournament this year with three other top 10’s including a 2nd place in his last outing, the WGC Workday Championship. He is a four-time major champion from just 24 major starts, he was runner up here in 2019 and seventh last year and made the cut in all five appearances. He has the power game to thrive on this course and plays par fours well. Last year was his first without a top 5 in a major since 2013. That shows he is a man for the big events and he will want to add The US Masters to his CV. He started the month of April by getting engaged to actress Jena Sims so hopefully, happy off the course means happy on the course.
2021 US Masters Tip: 1 point e/w Brooks Koepka to win the Masters @ 29.00 with William Hill (1/5th the odds 1-9)
Match Bets
We have covered Spieth’s attributes earlier and he is taken to beat the muscle with a stick that is DeChambeau. Spieth is a course specialist who has hit form. DeChambeau is in good form also, but his course form is decent at best. Bryson has played four Masters with finishes of 21/-/38/29/34 and an 18 hole average of 72.13. Spieth is 3-1 over De Chambeau at Augusta and looks well placed to make that 4-1.
2021 US Masters Tip: 2 points Jordan Spieth to beat Bryson DeChambeau @ 1.95 with Ladbrokes
Westwood is enjoying a fine autumn of his career. He ended 2020 by winning the Race to Dubai, the oldest player to do so. He has had back-to-back second places on the PGA tour this year, losing out by one shot the DeChambeau at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the following week he was runner up at the prestigious Players Championship at Sawgrass. The Englishman had held the lead in both tournaments after three rounds. Westwood made his Masters debut in 1997 and has played in 19, with a best finish of second in 2016 and 2010. He has six top 10’s in total.
Hatton has had a good start to the 2021 season, winning the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship but he is playing mostly in the States where he was beaten by Westwood in the Players championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational. His record at Augusta is MC/44/56/MC and an average of 74.08 per round. In the last 19 years, Westwood has an average of 72.13.
Westwood is playing without pressure these days, enjoying the game and getting the results. He remains a great driver of the ball and his vast course experience will serve him well. Hatton is well known for having a fiery temperament and on a course that will test you mentally, that is not an asset.
