Night 3 Premier League Darts Preview

Night 2 of the PDC Premier League was a profitable one for James Punt’s followers. Gary Anderson beat De Sousa 7-5, advised at 10.00. Jonny Clayton also landed our bet at 2.40 to win -3.5 legs. Hopefully, James has found a few more winners tonight. Check out his Night 3 Premier League Darts preview below…

Rob Cross vs. Michael van Gerwen

The Cross ‘revival’ will be tested tonight. Rob Cross beat a very poor James Wade 7-3 last night, with Wade averaging just 88.7. He came on to the stage without the tournament sponsor’s logo on his shirt and there was a last-minute panic as a sticker was found and stuck on his arm. Not an ideal start and he missed five darts to win the first leg and let Cross break his throw with a 21 dart leg. Wade was quickly 0-3 down and never got into the match, letting Cross cruise to a comfortable win.

Rob Cross does not like playing MVG and their H2H record is 18-3 to Van Gerwen. Cross’ last win was back in 2018 and he has lost their last seven matches. MVG has won all their previous seven PL matches, four of them 7-2.

Not Much Between Them

There isn’t much between their form in this year’s PL so far, MVG averaging 96.4 with four 180s and a checkout rate of 43.3%. Cross is averaging 95.4 with nine 180s and a 46.4% checkout rate.

Cross hasn’t faced anyone throwing much back his way so far and this will be a proper test of his form. Voltage is playing a couple of points better than his 12-month average, MVG playing 3 points worse than his. Van Gerwen averaged 100 when drawing with Van den Bergh in round 1 but he only needed to average 92 to beat Peter Wright 7-2 last night.

MVG is the 1.62 favourite, Cross 5.00 and the draw 5.50. There is nothing of value in the outrights but I am immediately attracted to the correct score of 7-2 to MVG. All five of their group stage matches have seen Cross win just two legs and he has lost four group matches 7-2 and the other 8-2 (from 2019 the phase 2 group matches were best of 14). I am staying on-trend.

Night 3 Premier League Tip: 1 point Michael van Gerwen to win 7-2 @ 11.00 with Skybet

Night 3 Premier League: Glen Durrant vs. Dimitri van den Bergh

Glen Durrant remains pointless after two matches. He lost 3-7 to Jonny Clayton last night and he was a little flattered by that scoreline. Clayton was 6-1 up and on the cusp of landing our 7-1 bet, but he just took his foot off the gas, dropped to Duzza’s standard and lost two more legs. Durrant averaged 88.8, his second sub 89 average in a row, and even after just two rounds, things are looking grim for him.

Dimitri van den Bergh is scoring very well and averaging 101.6 despite having the lowest checkout rate of 33.3%. He averaged 103 when beating Aspinall 7-5 last night, coming back from 3-5. Once he started hitting the doubles, he just raced away from Aspinall with legs of 15, 13, 11 and 12 darts. Very impressive.

Glen Durrant is 2-1 up in their H2H stats but those matches were before his loss of form. Van den Bergh is the 1.44 favourite, Durrant 5.50 and the draw 6.00.

On recent form, there is only one winner here, it is just a matter of the margin of victory. Glen Durrant has managed to win three legs in each of his first two matches. While Van den Bergh has been throwing bombs his patchy prowess on the doubles should give Durrant a chance to win two or three legs. If Dimitri plays like he did in the latter half of last nights match, then it could be a slaughter.

Night 3 Premier League Tip: 2 points Dimitri van den Bergh to win -3.50 legs @ 2.40 with Unibet

Night 3 Premier League Tip: 0.5 point Van den Bergh to win 7-2 @ 9.00 with Skybet

Peter Wright vs. Gary Anderson

Will the real Peter Wright please stand up? We got the bad Wright last night. He just didn’t turn up against MVG and lost a terrible match 2-7 with an average of 88.4, the worst of what was a low scoring night. From 101.2 and 100% on the doubles on the opening night, to 88.4 and 28.6%. Chalk and Cheese.

Gary Anderson edged out Jose de Sousa 7-5 in a good match. Jose missed three darts to draw the match, but Anderson was the better player with a 99.7 average and more importantly, 50% on the doubles. So far Anderson’s scoring has been consistently good and so long as he keeps up the better doubling, he will be hard to beat.

The problem with this match is Peter Wright. He changed his darts mid-match last night and did what he does now and then, just not turn up. Will he back to normal tonight, or still in disarray?

Anderson Edges The H2H

Their PL H2H record is six wins for Anderson, two for Wright with three draws. That reflects fairly accurately the two players relative PL record. Anderson usually makes the playoffs while Wright has only made the playoffs twice in what is a modest record.

I suspect Anderson will win but it is hard to be confident about Wrights form as one poor performance does not mean he is out of form. This has no bet written all over it. However, I can’t see why Wright is the 2.10 favourite. His career H2H record with Anderson is 18-26 with three draws. His PL record with Anderson is 2-6 with three draws.

Even if Wright goes back to how he played against Clayton on night 1, Anderson is playing well enough to give him a game. If Wright plays like how he did last night, Anderson will beat him comfortably.

Night 3 Premier League Tip: 1 point Gary Anderson to win @ 2.88 with Betvictor, Skybet, SpreadEx

Nathan Aspinall vs. James Wade

There is nothing between the two with their H2H record being 7-7. It was 4-3 to Aspinall in 2020 and they have not yet met in 2021. Over the first two nights, Aspinall is averaging 97.9, Wade 93.7.

James Wade, much like Peter Wright followed up a good performance on the opening night, with a stinker. He averaged just 88.7 when going down 3-7 to Rob Cross. This sort of poor match from out of the blue has become a feature of Wade’s game. He had a very good start to 2021 and looked like he had got that bad habit behind him, but it was back last night. He had not been practicing since the end of Super Series 2 and it could be that he is a bit rusty. Whatever it is, he remains very hard to call.

Wade Has To Rediscover Earlier Form

Clearly, Wade has to find the sort of form he showed on the first night otherwise he could be in trouble. Aspinall came into the tournament not in great form but a switch back to his old darts seems to have helped and he has played well so far. He lost to Van den Bergh last night but he was just hit by four great legs from Dimitri and anyone would have struggled with him in that form.

Aspinall tops the 180’s hit table with ten with Wade on seven, six of which he hit on the first night. The Asp has hit five in both his matches so far and he is a bigger maximum hitter than Wade.

James Wade is the 2.15 favourite, Aspinall 2.88 and the draw at 4.50. I feel that there is some value in Aspinall’s odds as he has been more consistent and his H2H record with Wade is decent.

Night 3 Premier League Tip: 1 point Aspinall to win and hit the most 180’s @ 4.00 with Betfair

Jose de Sousa vs. Jonny Clayton

Their H2H record is 5-1 to The Ferret and four of those wins have come in 2021. The combined score of those four matches is 24-16 to Clayton.

Clayton beat Durrant 7-3 in a largely one-sided match last night. The Welshman dominated the match and was averaging over the ton until he switched off a bit at 6-1 up and dropped his standard. That is understandable when cruising in a match and there was a brief moment of panic when Duzza won two legs in a row just as Clayton stepped off the gas, but he wrapped it up in the end.

De Sousa largely matched Gary Anderson last night but missed darts to draw the match and he looks a bit frustrated with his performances so far. He just hasn’t quite hit the high notes yet, but he was getting closer last night.

Their H2H form this year suggests that Clayton should win this but statistically, they are very similar. Clayton will have to keep his foot on the gas right through the match as De Sousa will win legs and we should have a close match. It is getting to the stage that the league table is taking shape. De Sousa is on 1 point and needs at least a draw while Clayton is on 3 and knows that a win will be a big step towards making the cut. Nerves will start to play a bigger part in all these games.

Clayton is the 2.00 favourite, De Sousa 3.25 with the draw at 4.50. I will take a narrow win for Clayton.

Night 3 Premier League Tip: 0.5 point Clayton to win 7-5 @ 6.50 with SpreadEx

-JamesPunt