Aintree Friday Racing Tips by Dave Stevos
Aintree Friday Racing Tips
The Grand National is just one day away and you can check out my stats based preview here. Friday’s card is an outstanding one in its own right. We have four Grade 1s and the Grade 3 Topham Handicap over the National Fences. Check out Dave Stevos’ Aintree Friday Racing Tips below…
2.20 – Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
We landed a nice e/w bet at big odds on For Pleasure in the Supreme at Cheltenham. Alex Hales’ stable star was admittedly well beaten by Appreciate It. However, so were the rest of them and he was only 2L behind a talented sort in Ballyadam. Of those in the race with official ratings, this son of Excelebration is joint highest with Third Time Lucki (144). I think that the slightly better ground at Aintree is going to suit him better than the testing conditions at the festival and this doesn’t look anywhere near as hot a race.
For Pleasure has already taken the scalp of Third Time Lucki. I don’t see why he can’t repeat the dose today. He is unlikely to face much competition for the lead. Consequently, he could be a lot harder to peg back at this flatter track then he was at Cheltenham. On a line through Soaring Glory he holds the favourite Dusart too. Although admittedly, that horse is open to any amount of improvement.
For Pleasure is having just his third run of 2021. So, he is still relatively fresh and I think he has the best form in the race. He can be backed at odds of 11/1. In comparison to Dusart (9/4) and Third Time Lucki (4/1) that price looks way too big. He can make a bold bid under Harry Bannister and an each way interest is advised.
Aintree Friday Racing Tips: For Pleasure e/w @ 11/1
2.50 – Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Next up is another top quality Grade 1, this time a Novices’ Chase over 25f. Cheltenham hero Chantry House is the market leader at odds of 7/4. He profited from the tumble of Envoi Allen to score by 3L and Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 4 renewals. Colin Tizzard won the other two and he relies on Fiddlerontheroof and The Big Breakaway. They were both left trailing in Monkfish’s wake at the Festival with Fiddlerontheroof finishing 2nd ahead of his stablemate in 3rd.
You could argue that The Big Breakaway paid the price for chasing Monkfish early and that Fiddlerontheroof only beat him home because he was ridden to place rather than win. However, going by jockey bookings it looks like Robbie Power believes that Fiddlerontheroof can uphold the form and I tend to agree.
Interesting Outsider
At a much bigger price Sandy Thomson’s Empire Steel is an intriguing contender. Thomson does extremely well with staying chasers and he doesn’t often tilt at windmills. This horse has done very little wrong in his short career to date and he destroyed a decent horse at Kelso last time out (23.5f sft). He scored by 41L that day, beating the winner of Thursday’s first race Protektorat. He was previously beaten on heavy ground at Ayr by Hear No Evil by a neck with a decent sort in Skandiburg 11L behind in 3rd.
The question is whether this horse is going to be as effective on this better ground? Well, it is encouraging that his two runs on soft over fences resulted in victory and he failed to win on heavy. He is by a promising NH sire called Aizavoski and his progeny have a 34% strike rate on soft in comparison to 41% on good ground. His full brother Hes A Hardy Bloke has won on good ground, as have both his half-brothers. A rating of 140 could well underestimate his ability. If he handles conditions a big run could be on the cards at odds of 25/1.
Aintree Friday Racing Tips: Empire Steel e/w @ 25/1 NB
Aintree Friday racing tips 3.25 – Marsh Chase (Grade 1)
I have huge respect for the Hamilton operation and I think Nuts Well is the one to be on here. This highly progressive 10yo has won 5 of his last 6 chase starts. His winning run began in December 2019 at Wetherby where he won a handicap chase easily off 130. Wins followed at Musselburgh off 140 and then back at Wetherby off 146. His sole defeat came afterwards at Doncaster off 152 when he was likely feeling the effects of a tough season.
This year he returned to action at Kelso off a mark of 152. He scored cosily by 1.5L from Aye Right, who he was conceding 3lb to. That horse went on to have a great season without winning and he is now rated 8lb higher (154). Nuts Well was last sighted scoring over C&D in the Old Roan Chase off 155. He gave 3lb and a 1.5L beating to Clondaw Castle, a horse that has since won a Grade 3 handicap off 154.
That course form is rock solid and while it came on soft, he is fully effective on good to soft too. The break since his last run is not a worry as he won first time up earlier this term. He has very little to fid at the figures and there could yet be more to come from the son of Dylan Thomas. I think he is more of a 5/1 shot than the 9/1 currently available and at those odds he rates as a cracking e/w bet.
Aintree Friday Racing Tips: Nuts Well e/w @ 9/1
4.05 – Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
I had a decent ante-post bet on Kauto Riko for the Ultima at Cheltenham but he didn’t show up. Maybe connections thought that the 25f trip on soft ground would have proved too far for the son of Ballingarry. So, they have opted to have a crack at this 21f contest instead. This horse wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much but ground on the easy side of good is perfect for him. It was good to soft for his career best run at Huntingdon when he flew home over 20f to finish 2nd behind Top Notch in the 2019 Peterborough Chase.
He lost his form somewhat after that stellar effort and he had a wind-op after a poor run at Cheltenham. The procedure seemed to work though as he ran a huge race on his return at Cheltenham in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off 142. He came from the clouds under Conor O’Farrell to finish 4th, 5.5L behind the then 137 rated Coole Cody. That horse since placed in the Paddy Power Plate at Cheltenham off a mark of 143.
Kauto Riko races off the same mark here as he did that day at Cheltenham. He has been freshened up since that excellent effort. That is another plus given that he was off for 269 days before he ran Top Notch so close. Tom Gretton has enlisted the services of Sean Bowen to ride his stable star and his style should suit this strong finisher. The 21f trip looks perfect, as does the ground and at odds of 25/1 Kauto Riko is the e/w NAP of the day.
Aintree Friday Racing Tips: Kauto Riko e/w @ 25/1 NAP (7 places William Hill)
Aintree Friday Racing Tips: 4.40 – Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Streets Of Doyen was well backed at Cheltenham and he ran a cracker to finish 3rd. It was a fine effort and he is entitled to strip fitter with that run under his belt.The good to soft ground is perfect for this fella and his Irish form stands up to scrutiny. He has done most of his winning on testing tracks but he showed he could handle a flat track when winning at Cork. The horse he beat that day, Jacksons Gold, subsequently won a Novice, a handicap off 130 and he was narrowly beaten off 136 in a valuable handicap hurdle at the Irish Grand National meeting.
Bravemansgame is rated 9lb higher than Streets Of Doyen. He disappointed at Cheltenham though and the form of his Grade 1 win at Newbury is questionable. The application of a tongue tie suggests that Streets Of Doyen may have had some breathing issues last time. That means the form can be marked up even more. He is proven at the trip, he’ll love the ground and I think Streets Of Doyen is going to go very close at odds of 8/1.
