Night 7 Premier League Tips by James Punt
It was an extremely profitable evening for followers of James Punt’s tips on night 6. Gary Anderson got us off to a perfect start, winning 7-5 advised at 6.00. Jose De Sousa also won and got the most 180s at odds of 2.63. Other winning bets included MVG -3.5 sets at 1.65 and Nathan Aspinall to win at 3.75. Let’s hope for another successful evening on Tuesday. Check out James Punt’s Night 7 Premier League Darts tips below…
Night 7 Premier League: Glen Durrant vs. Jose de Sousa
The misery for Glen Durrant goes on. Another 3-7 defeat (his fourth from six PL matches) leaves him on zero points. On the bright side he only has three more matches to play before being released from this form of hell.
Jose de Sousa moved out of the relegation zone with a 7-5 win over James Wade. That is his first back-to-back win in the PL and it also saw his fourth ton plus average in a row. He looks to be one of the top three players in terms of form right now. He is averaging 100.2, checking out at 41.4% and has hit a league leading 31 maximums.
Poor Average
Duzza’s league average is just 87.3 and that is a true reflection of where his game is right now. At times he shows us a bit of the old Duzza, but then the radar breaks down and he is all over the place. You cannot play the kind of darts required at this level when you have zero confidence.
As is usual when previewing Glen’s matches at the moment, it is not a question of who, but by what margin.
Four 3-7 defeats from his six matches suggests that a correct score bet on De Sousa to win 7-3 is obvious. They have only met once, in the final a PC event last October. De Sousa won 8-6 but that was before Durrant’s collapse in form.
Durrant is the 10.00 outsider, the draw is 8.00 and De Sousa 1.28. These two are from the same management stable and that does worry me a little. Jose may not want to humiliate his mate but the same was the case with Dimitri van den Bergh and Dimitri beat Duzza 7-0.
Night 7 Premier League Tip: 0.5 point De Sousa to win 7-3 @ 6.50 with SpreadEx
Night 7 Premier League Tip: 2 points De Sousa to win -3.50 legs @ 1.95 with Ladbrokes
Rob Cross vs. Dimitri van den Bergh
Rob Cross lost 5-7 to Gary Anderson last night but he deserved to get something out of the match. He outscored Anderson for the bulk of the match, but Anderson did the right thing at the right time, just about. Cross had darts to get a draw but missed his beloved double 18 and then double 9 by a distance. His game is improving but the last bit of the jigsaw is confidence and that remains brittle.
Cross averaged 100.5 last night and hit four legs with less than 15 darts. Unfortunately, he was letting Anderson off with winning legs of 18 (x3) and 20 darts. That is not good enough and it is why Anderson won despite being the worse player. Rob Cross is, as Gary would say, getting there. But he is not there yet, just closer.
What Cross does have is a fantastic record vs. Dimitri. He leads the Belgian 7-1 but there have been some very close matches. Five of the eight went to a deciding leg.
Dimitri Looking Good
Van den Bergh is looking very good right now. To think he came into the competition with just three wins in the whole of 2021 and is now on top of the table and averaging 97.99 for the year and 100.1 in the PL. He must be considered as one of the favourites to win the title now and is now the fourth favourite to win the World Championship.
Van den Bergh beat in the in-form Jonny Clayton last night, 7-3. The score line flatters him a bit as Clayton was very much in the match but just hit a flat spot on the outer ring, but it was the relentless pressure that Dimitri put him under that caused that.
Despite that H2H record, Van den Bergh is the 1.83 favourite to win this match and he is hard to oppose. However, that H2H record is hard to ignore and both players will be aware of it. Cross is playing well enough to win legs and if he is sticking with Van den Bergh in the match, Dimitri will start to think ‘not again’.
That said he just looks to be playing so well that he must be backed to win a close match. Van den Bergh is hitting a lot more 180’s than Cross, 0.44 per leg compared to 0.29 for Cross and to win and most doubles looks a decent call.
Night 7 Premier League Tip: 1 point Dimitri van den Bergh to win and hit the most 180’s @ 2.60 with Betfair
Night 7 Premier League Tip: 0.5 point Van den Bergh to win 7-5 @ 5.50 with Ladbrokes, Hills, Betfred
Nathan Aspinall vs. Jonny Clayton
Our ante post selection to win the title, Jonny Clayton lost his second match of the tournament last night, a 3-7 loss to Dimitri van den Bergh. The Ferret still averaged 102 and averages 101 for the tournament, but he just couldn’t hit the doubles last night, missing 14 from 17. He remains in the top four by the skin of his teeth and while he isn’t in any danger of missing the cut, he needs points to keep him in that vital top 4.
Tonight, he faces Nathan Aspinall, a player growing in confidence and who has only lost one match so far, a narrow 5-7 loss to Van den Bergh on night 2. Aspinall is averaging 98.7 but he has been better on the doubles, 47% compared to Clayton’s 41%.
Their H2H record is 4-2 to Aspinall, but two of his wins were remote darts in the Home Tour.
Cracker On The Cards
This match should be a cracker, but it is all about how Clayton reacts to his poor doubling last night. A 19% checkout rate will bother him and if he starts missing early on, he could lose badly. Get few early ones in and I expect he will be back to being hard to beat.
It is worrying that both Clayton’s defeats have come when he is just shit on the doubles. He lost 3-7 to Rob Cross and his checkout rate that night was 19%. That is twice in his last three matches and at 32% in his 7-4 win over Anderson in the match in between the two defeats, was not exactly brilliant doubling. It is his Achilles Heel and when his checkout rate drops below 30%, he generally loses, and at this level, he will not be allowed to get away with it.
Clayton is the 2.30 favourite to win this match, Aspinall 2.75 and the draw 4.50.
There is nothing wrong with Clayton’s scoring, but his doubling could cost him another match against a player whose confidence is high. Clayton is hitting maximums at a rate of 0.428 compared to Aspinall’s 0.298.
Night 7 Premier League Tip: 1 point Aspinall to win @ 2.75 with Betfair, Skybet, BET365, Boylesports
Night 7 Premier League: 1 point Clayton to hit the most 180’s and lose the match @ 5.00 with Betfair
Peter Wright vs. James Wade
Snakebite stuck with the wobbly darts last night and lost 3-7 to Aspinall who was just far too good for him, Wright averaged 98 and checked out at 50%, won his three legs with 15 darts or less. Aspinall won the match, Wright played well but lost to the better player.
James Wade lost 5-7 to Jose de Sousa in a very strange match. Wade was hobbling about with a sore leg, but it didn’t affect his game as he outscored De Sousa with an average of 104. He lost, ironically, because De Sousa was better on the doubles! Wade checked out at a massive 71% but The Special One was 78%. Wade missed a double 12 to level the match at 4-4 but missed and went 5-3 down and that was the dart that swung the match.
The Machine put in his best performance of the league and lost, leaving him in the relegation zone. He is now under pressure but a win here and he will move out of the relegation places and put the pressure on to Wright.
Their H2H record is 20-19 to Wade and in the PL it is 4-2 to Wright with one draw. The draw apart, only one of the other six went to a deciding leg.
Tough To Call
This is a very hard match to call. An injured Wade played really well last night but lost. Wright also played well and lost. Their H2H record is very close and while they have only drawn one previous PL match, a draw would not be a surprise. Wright is usually the heavier scorer, but Wade is capable of good scoring himself and they are both strong on the doubles.
Wright is the 1.95 favourite, Wade 3.50 and the draw at 4.50. Looking at the odds, James Wade looks too big to me. If he plays close to how he did last night, he wins and the odds for James Wade are a little dismissive.
Night 7 Premier League Tip: 1 point James Wade to win @ 3.40 with Betfred
Night 7 Premier League: Michael van Gerwen vs. Gary Anderson
The two old rivals go head-to-head for the 59th time. Their career H2H record is 40-16 to MVG with two PL draws. In the PL it is closer with eight wins for MVG, two draws and four wins for Anderson.
Neither player has been that impressive in this years PL. MVG is in third place, averaging 99, checking out at 43% and hitting 9 maximums. Anderson is in fifth place, averaging 97, checking out at 38% and has hit 26 maximums.
Michael has been very inconsistent so far. He averaged 107 against Rob Cross on night 3, 100 against Van den Bergh on night 1 and 99 against Aspinall on night 5. However, he managed just 92 against Wright on night 2, 90 against Wade on night 4 and 87 last night against Durrant.
Gary Anderson has been more consistent. The first four nights were all 98 or 97 but night five and six has seen his form dip a little with 95 across the two. He just looks to be struggling and while he is not miles away form his best form, he is not at his best.
Not At Best
Two players who are not in their best form but both of whom need the two points in a very competitive league. Neither player is in any real danger relegation wise but making the top 4 is actually looking a bit of a stretch for both.
Van Gerwen was terrible against Glen Durrant last night but that is likely to be down to the fact that he was playing a player who he should have beaten easily even if he was throwing lefthanded with two darts. He was frustrated and trying too hard, and it was another sign that MVG, like Anderson, is some way away from his A game.
Van Gerwen is the 1.80 favourite, Anderson 3.75 and the draw at 4.75.
One part of their respective games which is very different is 180 hitting. MVG goes downstairs a lot of the time while Anderson is a firm treble 20 player. So far MVG is hitting maximums at 0.169 per leg compared to 0.388 for Gary Anderson. In their last three matches, MVG has hit two 180’s and Anderson twelve.
Night 7 Premier League Tip: 2 points Gary Anderson to have the most 180’s @ 1.53 with Boylesports
-JamesPunt