Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips and Preview
Unfortunately, we finished with a whimper on Day 3 at Chester. Crownthorpe was never involved and Palavecino wasn’t good enough. Glencadam Glory ran a great race but faded late into 6th. Trais Fluors didn’t enjoy the clearest of runs and he too failed to trouble the judge. We are in for a bumper day of action on ITV4 this Saturday with the Victoria Cup and Derby Trial just two of the highlights. Check out Dave Stevos’ Ascot and Lingfield Saturday tips and preview below.
1.55 Ascot – Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
Just eight fillies will line up in the stalls for this 8f handicap. The ground is currently good to soft at Ascot but with nearly 10mm of rain forecast overnight, conditions could deteriorate. So, it may well pay to focus on horses that have proven they can handle a bit of cut. One filly that should have no worries on that front is Thank You Next for Hannon and Dobbs. This 3yo daughter of No Nay Never produced a career best on her sole soft ground start last season.
She chased home Saffron Beach in the G3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket (7f sft). That filly came out and finished an excellent 3rd in the 1000 Guineas last weekend. Connections have given this horse a couple of spins on the all weather already this season and she didn’t reproduce that level of form. However, she should be fully fit now for her turf return and the rain has come at the perfect time.
The question is whether she will get today’s trip of a mile on soft ground? She is related to a couple of horses that got 9f and her dam is a full sister to a 10f G2 winner. So, hopefully she can stay this extra furlong. She was only 0.5L behind Saffron Beach at Newmarket and that filly is now rated 105. Thank You Next is in here off just 97 so she is potentially nicely treated. If she gets the trip a big run could be on the cards at odds of 16/1.
Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips: Thank You Next e/w @ 16/1
2.15 Lingfield – Oaks Trial (Listed)
The ground was good at Lingfield on Friday evening but with rain forecast, that could change. The amount due shouldn’t turn the ground heavy, but there will definitely be a bit of juice in it. Technique, Nash Nasha and Loving Dream are the top three in the market. However, they all have to prove they are effective on easier ground. In fact, only two horses have placed or winning form on ground softer than good. They are Ocean Road and Divinely.
The former is trained by Hugo Palmer and Oisin Murphy will ride the daughter of Australia. She ran well on her debut on soft at Nottingham to finish 2nd behind Noon Star. She then justified favouritism in a Lingfield novice in December on the all-weather, form that hasn’t really worked out. There are mixed signals on the dam side of her pedigree about the suitability of today’s 11.5f trip. However, at least her sire usually injects plenty of stamina. Soft ground experience could be a big advantage if the rain comes. Whether she’ll be good enough is another matter.
At the odds, I would prefer to be with Divinely for the all-conquering Ballydoyle team. Ryan Moore takes the ride and this daughter of Galileo won her G3 last season on heavy ground (8f). She wasn’t suited by the drop back to 7f on her final run in the Moyglare but on pedigree, this test should suit better. Her full sister Found won an Arc and a Breeders’ Cup Turf over 12f and her other full sister Best In The World was a G3 winner over the distance too. 9/1 looks a pretty generous price for Divinely and she is the e/w pick.
Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips: Divinely e/w @ 9/1
2.30 Ascot – Buckhounds Stakes (Listed)
We backed Tyson Fury last time out when he finished 4th at Newbury (12f gd). The son of Iffraaj needed the run that day and I think he could take a big step forward here. A former course and distance winner on soft ground, conditions have come right for him. The more rain that falls, the better. Three of his half-siblings have won races and there was soft in the ground description for every one of those victories. His dam was best on easy ground too.
Iffraaj’s progeny tend to enjoy a cut in the ground also, so the conditions at Ascot should bring out the best in this fella. Richard Spencer’s horses are starting to hit form and Kieran Shoemark knows this horse well. A rating of 100 leaves him with a bit to find with a fair few of his rivals but this horse was rated highly enough by connections to have a crack at the St Leger last season. So, clearly they think a fair bit of him. This ground could be the key for Tyson Fury and at odds of 12/1 with 4 places on offer, he looks a cracking each way bet.
Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips: Tyson Fury e/w @ 12/1 NAP (4 places W Hill)
2.50 Lingfield – Derby Trial (Listed)
Just the seven will go to post in a race that has thrown up some quality winners in years gone by. Anthony Van Dyck went on to land The Derby after winning it in 2019 and Aidan O’Brien fires two bullets at the race this year. Ryan Moore is on Kyprios and Frankie is on board Carlisle Bay. Both the sons of Galileo have form claims. As Frankie showed at Newmarket, jockey bookings often mean nothing when Ballydoyle are involved. With identical official ratings of 101, they are tough to split.
At the current prices, I am going to take a chance on Third Realm for Varian and Egan. This horse raced just once as a 2yo and he could only manage 5th at Kempton (8f). He looked a different proposition on his sole start so far this season three weeks ago at Nottingham. It took him a while hit top gear in that 10f maiden (gd/fm) and while he only won by 1.25L, it looked to me as if he still had loads left in the tank at the finish.
The question is whether he will be effective on easier ground if the forecast rain comes. He is by Derby winning sire Sea The Stars, a horse that handled all sorts of ground. His dam was a winner on good to soft and his classy half-brothers, Cape Byron and Ostilio, are both soft ground winners. Varian had a nice winner in the Dee Stakes at Chester during the week and I think Third Realm could go well for him here. At odds of 12/1, he is the each way pick.
Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips: Third Realm e/w @ 12/1
3.10 Haydock – Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
We sneak in one National Hunt race on Saturday, the Grade 3 Swinton Handicap Hurdle. A trip of 15.5f awaits the field of 17 horses and you could nearly make some sort of a case for all of them. There is a fair bit of rain forecast at Haydock too so the ground could turn pretty testing. Quite a few horses would prefer if the rain stays away but one that won’t mind the heavens opening is Irish raider Politicise.
Ado McGuinness is a trainer on the up and he has likely had this race in mind for Politicise for a while. He landed a valuable pot over 16f at Listowel on good ground back in September off 123 and he is now 14lb higher. This son of Camelot doesn’t need quick ground as he is very versatile. His last flat win at Galway came on soft/heavy and he has a couple of solid placed efforts over timber on easier ground too.
Politicise has admittedly run poorly the last twice, in a 12f Dundalk handicap and a 19f handicap hurdle at Cork. However, he was claimer ridden both times and they look like typical prep runs to me. Darragh O’Keefe comes in for the ride today and he has won twice on this fella. I am hoping this is another horse that the British Handicapper has failed to get a handle on and at odds of 28/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Haydock Saturday Tips: Politicise e/w @ 28/1 (5 places)
3.25 Lingfield – Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3)
Eight fillies will fight it out for Black Type in this 7f Group 3 contest. The one I like going up a furlong in trip is Jouska for Henry Candy and Sean Levey. This 4yo filly was disappointing at Newmarket last time out but she likely needed the run badly. The very quick ground may have been another reason for her poor display. So, connections will be very happy with the weather forecast.
This daughter of Cable Bay produced the best run of her career on easy ground at Newmarket last October. She landed a 6f Listed contest by 0.5L and the way she finished off that day suggested that 7f could be right up her street. You could forgive her a poor run at Ascot a week later as the run probably came too soon and it was a Group 1.
Her sire is a big speed influence but there is hope that she will stay 7f in her pedigree. She has four winning half-siblings and three of them won at trips from 7f up to 10f. She gave the impression that 7f would suit when winning at Newmarket and she wasn’t beaten that far on her sole try at the distance on good ground at Doncaster. At the prices, Jouska is well worth chancing each way at odds of 22/1.
Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips: Jouska e/w @ 22/1 NB
3.40 Ascot – Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)
The big race on Saturday is the 7f Victoria Cup. As ever, this famous race has attracted a massive field of 29. With bookies paying out on up to 6 places each way, I’ll be backing a couple. I was delighted to hear about the forecast rain for our old pal Ropey Guest. This horse has been good to us in the past two seasons, even though he never won. We have landed some very nice places at big odds with him and I think he has the potential to go well here off a mark of 98.
He ran his best race last season first time up over C&D when 4th behind Molatham. His trainer George Margarson has said this race has been the plan since the end of last season so hopefully he is fit and raring to go. The son of Cable Bay will relish easy ground and he has plenty of pace around him in stall 23. Hopefully Tom Queally can steer a clear passage on him and if he gets a bit of luck a massive run could be on the cards at odds of 28/1.
Dan Could Be The Man
I am also going to take a punt on one drawn on the other side. The one I like in stall 3 is Marshal Dan for Heather Main and Martin Dwyer. This 6yo son of Lawman has been a stalwart for connections, winning 6 of his 21 starts. He has won on good to firm ground but he was very progressive on soft at the back end of last season. Marshal Dan beat Zip at Haydock in September (7f sft) off 80. He then signed off with a Musselburgh win, again over 7f on soft, off a mark of 84.
He proved he could be competitive off his revised rating of 88 on his return at Musselburgh (7f gd). Eton College beat him by a neck that day and you can forgive him his last run at Haydock as the ground was rattling quick and he raced far too freely. He ran a nice enough race on his only previous start at Ascot and he has form figures of 3411 on soft ground. I think this front runner could make a bold bid and at odds of 66/1 a small e/w interest is advised.
Ascot and Lingfield Saturday Tips: Ropey Guest e/w @ 28/1; Marshal Dan e/w @ 66/1 (both 6 places)
4.15 Ascot – 12f Handicap (Class 3)
The 4.00 at Lingfield is a four runner handicap and I have no interest in betting on that race. This contest makes much more appeal as a betting heat. Off a mark of just 81, Speed Company could go well for Williams and Crowley. This son of Fast Company is far more exposed than some of today’s rivals. However, he is guaranteed to get the trip and he is also going to appreciate any rain that falls. He races off a mark of 81 today, just 1lb higher than he was for his last victory at Ripon (12f gd).
However, he has won off far higher marks in the past, including off 89 on soft ground. His hurdling campaign didn’t go to plan this season and after three months off he returned to action at Southwell. He ran a grand race there to finish 2nd off 82 and he wasn’t disgraced in a Cheltenham handicap hurdle last time out at Cheltenham.
Cheekpieces (worn last time) are combined with a tongue tie for the first time and it will be interesting to see if they spark a revival. With conditions to suit I wouldn’t be surprised if this fella put in an improved showing. If he can get back to anywhere near his best he could outrun his odds of 20/1 for each way players.
