Epsom Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
2021 Epsom Saturday Tips
What a day Friday was at Epsom. Blue Collar Lad wasn’t suited by the rain but it didn’t bother Corazon Espinado. Hollie Doyle gave him a peach and he won easily, advised e/w at 14/1. Things got even better in the Coronation Cup. Our 9/1 e/w NAP Pyledriver battled bravely to fend off the late surge from the favourite to earn a well deserved first win at G1 level. The rain scuppered La Joconde’s hopes and Saffron Beach didn’t stay. Let’s hope we can land another winner or two on Derby Day. Check out Dave Stevos’ Epsom Saturday Tips below.
2.00 – Tote Handicap (Class 2)
By the time racing had finished at Epsom on Friday the ground had softened considerably. There is going to be a fair bit of cut on Saturday and that will suit some horses a lot better than others. The opener on ITV is a 10f handicap for 3yos and soft ground form is thin on the ground. The favourite, King Frankel, won on good to firm two starts back. He has placed form on good to soft and also on heavy. 8f course winner Patient Dream has won on good to soft. The only other horse with form on an easy surface is Chase The Dollar.
He is one of three runners for Mark Johnston and Andrea Atzeni rides. This horse won his maiden on good to firm last season and he ran a very nice race subsequently off 78 when beat 2L at Chester (7.5f gd/sft). The son of Frankel underwhelmed on his return to action at Redcar (10f gd). However, he was entitled to need that and he went very close last time out at Newcastle off 78 (10f st). Proper soft ground is an unknown but that is the case for the vast majority in this field. At odds of 17/2 a small each way interest is advised.
2021 Epsom Saturday Tips: Chase The Dollar e/w @ 17/2
2.35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3)
Ten fillies and mares will line up in the stalls for this 8.5f Group 3. One horse that is guaranteed to go on the ground is Queen Kahlua. This 4yo daughter of Kingman was formerly trained in France. She was a two time 7f winner on testing ground over there. She posted a decent effort in a Listed heat on very soft on her final French start and she then changed yards and moved to Stuart Williams. Her first run for her new connections was a cracker. She ran in a 6f Listed heat on soft ground at Nottingham and she finished off very well for 4th.
This filly is regally bred and connections will be targeting black type with a view to her future career at stud. Stuart Williams has booked Adam Kirby for the ride. He has 18 winners and 39 top 4 finishes from just 109 rides for the yard. Williams’ record at Epsom is worth mentioning too, 25 wins and 56 top 4s from 158 runners. With a rating of 91 this filly must improve to figure but the ground is on her side and she should also come on plenty for her comeback. Hopefully Kirby rides her to place and if he does, she could reward e/w support at odds of 50/1.
2021 Epsom Saturday Tips: Queen Kahlua e/w @ 50/1
3.10 – Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
Eight are due to go to post for the Diomed Stakes, an 8.5f Group 3. Century Dream, the 2018 and 2020 winner (at Newbury) heads the market for the Crisfords and James Doyle. He enjoys soft ground, he is proven over C&D and he looks to hold every chance. Bell Rock is next best in the betting but he flopped badly his only start on soft ground. Duke Of Hazzard likes quick conditions too, as does Prince Eiji. Maries Diamond will handle the ground but she is best on good or better. One horse that will relish the conditions is the admirable Escobar.
This fella has come up short at pattern level so far in his career but this could be his best chance to end the drought. He produced the best run of his career when winning on heavy at Ascot in 2019 off 105. Since then he has run some good races in defeat in stakes company. His 2L defeat to Space Blues at Goodwood in a G2 was a decent effort and he showed that he retained all his old ability when an unlucky 3rd behind River Nymph at Ascot on his penultimate start in a quality handicap at Ascot (7f sft). Whether he will handle Epsom is an unknown but unlike most of his rivals here he is proven on this ground and at odds of 14/1, Escobar could run into the money.
2021 Epsom Saturday Tips: Escobar e/w @ 14/1 NAP
3.45 – Epsom Dash Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Blink and you’ll miss it! The Epsom Dash is a handicap with a rich heritage and it is all about one thing…speed. The rain means that an ability to handle an ease will be crucial too. Being drawn low is a big advantage for front runners if they can break fast and the horses drawn in 2, 3, 4 and 6 all like to go forward. It could be a real burn up early doors and they may well set it up for a closer. Although it has been a while since he has won on turf, the race could be run to suit Saaheq.
This hardy sort last won back in April, beating Boom The Groom off 76 on the all-weather at Lingfield. He then chased home Pettochside off 80 (beat 1L), finishing off his race really well. Things didn’t go his way last time at Newmarket. However, the return to a big field and easier ground may elicit a return to form. The son of Invincible Spirit is in off a mark of 82 today, 3lb lower than he was for his last win on grass at Musselburgh.
However, it is his soft ground form that I think gives him a chance today. In late 2019 he was beat just 1.5L off 88 at Doncaster (5f sft) and he then was beat the same distance in a 17 runner handicap at Ascot off 87. On both occasions he was held up and produced with a late run and hopefully Hayley Turner can find the gaps today. She should be able to slot in behind the early pace from stall 9 and hopefully he’ll finish with a right old rattle. With 6 places on offer, Saaheq is worth backing e/w at odds of 33/1.
2021 Epsom Saturday Tips: Saaheq e/w @ 33/1 (6 places) nb
4.30 – Cazoo Derby (Group 1)
After Snowfall’s romp in the Oaks, Bolshoi Ballet will be all the rage here. This fella dotted up in his trial at Leopardstown and he is the clear fav. He won on soft as a 2yo but he was lethal at Leopardstown last time on good ground (10f) and it was also good when he won on his seasonal comeback there. By Galileo, he ought to stay the extra 2 furlongs today but the worry is whether the easy ground will blunt his speed.
Mac Swiney will absolutely relish the conditions. He landed the Irish Guineas for us last time out and he owes us nothing. Jim Bolger has long claimed this fella would be his Derby horse and he wasn’t lying. The stars seem to be aligning for him weather wise and he could turn the Leopardstown form with Bolshoi Ballet around on this ground. I would be happy to see him win it but I am going to back two at much bigger odds.
Realm Can Run Big
Third Realm won very nicely for us at Lingfield and I am keeping the faith in him today. The ground was soft that day but he handled it beautifully. This son of Sea The Stars isn’t overly big but often smaller horses can handle the ridges and undulations at Epsom very well. Whatever about his stature, this fella has a big heart and he possesses plenty of ability. Roger Varian is pretty sweet on his chances and I tend to agree. I am very surprised to see him priced up at as big as 14/1 and at those odds he is well worth backing each way.
The other one I am interested in at a big price is Youth Spirit for Balding and Marquand. The rain that has fallen will be right up this son of Camelot’s street and he was very impressive when winning at Chester. That win came on good to soft and he won his maiden on soft so clearly this fella appreciates an ease. These same connections teamed up with last year’s runner up Khalifa Sat and hopefully this horse can sneak into the frame too at odds of 33/1.
