2021 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update

James Punt’s 2021 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update and Tips: A chaotic, crash filled qualifying session has left us with a bit of a mixed-up grid but nothing that helped our ante post selections. Such is the way at this mad track.

Charles Leclerc starts from pole position, and he will actually start this time. He and Ferrari have been quick all weekend and he can be forgiven his one incursion into the wall. Never slower than fourth in any session Leclerc is a 5.00 shot to convert that into a win. It is a big price for a pole sitter but that is because this track allows for overtaking and it will be affected by safety car deployments. There is also the small matter of Ferrari having set their car up for one lap pace by running a skinnier rear win for less drag. That compensates for the deficiency in power compared to Mercedes and Hondas but could result in greater tyre wear.

Of the four races here, two have been won from pole, one from second and the other from tenth. Three wins from the front row is fairly normal F1 fare. But, a win from tenth is like F1 of old. It is interesting to note that of the five races this season only one has been won from pole position, in Spain, which has a very strong record of pole position winners.

In Friday’s free practice, Ferrari was fourth quickest, about three tenths off Red Bull and Mercedes who were almost identical. Leclerc has his work cut out to keep two faster cars behind him. Especially with the undercut being strong here.

2021 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Update: Hamilton Now Into Fav

Lewis Hamilton was all at sea on Friday. Miles off the pace and unable to switch the tyres on. Constant tinkering with set ups eventually found something. However, his times were helped by getting great tows down the long straight. He may not have the fastest car today, but his tyre management skills could be the decisive factor. He is now the 2.63 favourite to win. One worry for him is that the weather is a bit more overcast today. If those conditions continue, the track could be cooler as a result. With Mercedes having tyre warm up problems, this may compromise his start and opening lap pace.

Max Verstappen once again had his final qualifying lap destroyed by a yellow flag. He now has to start third in marginally the best car. He is the 2.75 second favourite but at least he is racing just the one Mercedes as Bottas is marooned in tenth place. Pierre Gasly starts a joint best ever fourth in the Alpha Tauri. However, the AT was some 0.75 off the pace off Red Bull and Mercedes on the long runs. He is not without a chance but needs luck, which you can get here. His chances are fairly reflected in odds of 34.00.

Ferrari Performing Well

Carlos Sainz was another of the cars that crashed in Q3 and he starts fifth. That means two Ferraris in the top five now. I wonder if Sainz will be used tactically to try and undercut to get ahead of Leclerc’s opponents nearer the front? He will probably be forced to pit early in any case as Ferrari was degrading the tyres much quicker on Friday. It looks like they will struggle to manage a one stop race, unless we have multiple long safety car periods, which is not out of the question.

Sergio Perez had been much more on the pace this weekend and he was hopeful of pole position as a result. However, once again, qualifying has not gone his way and he now starts sixth after Norris’ penalty. He is far from out of it as he is a track specialist in a quick car. He is also very good at tyre management and that could be useful today.

Safety Car Issues

The reality is that the best planned strategy here can be thrown out the window by a safety car at the wrong time. If you have made your pit stop and the safety car is put out shortly after, you can be passed by those that had yet to pit. Those drivers outside the top 10 can start on harder tyres and hope to get lucky with a late safety car and make up a lot of places. It’s a bit of a lottery and to be honest, great to watch, but not a great betting medium. The race strategists earn their pay in this race but even they will be wearing their lucky pants and have everything crossed.

We have backed Norris at 51.00 but his slim hopes got that bit slimmer after he received a three place grid penalty for a red flag infringement yesterday and now starts ninth. He just needs more luck than before, but it must be said that McLaren have been disappointing this weekend.

Worth Chancing Outsiders

Backing favourites in this race is extra risky. Consequently, it may be worth having a few small stake bets on outsiders who might get lucky. Experience of the track and how races go here is an advantage. One of the track specialists is Lance Stroll who crashed out before even setting a time in yesterday’s qualifying. He has always finished in the points here and had a podium for Williams in 2017. He now starts from the back row in a car that should have been qualifying around the 10-12 mark. There should be a few retirements and with a good strategy and a lot of luck, he might still get another top 10 finish.

2021 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 4.75 with Ladbrokes

Another outsider for the race win is Sergio Perez. His race performances have been better than his qualifying so far this season. This is a race he knows is all about staying in the running, not taking stupid risks and hoping for the best. A win needs luck but he has been knocking on the podium door and this kind of race might just open it for him.

2021 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Perez to win the Azerbaijan GP @ 17.00 with Unibet

2021 Azerbaijan GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Perez to finish on the podium @ 2.75 with Betvictor, Betfair, Paddy Power, Skybet

-JamesPunt