Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Racing Tips
Royal Ascot was an absolute disaster for us last week. On Saturday, Happy Power was our only place at 33s and the rest of my selections ran shockers. At least it is over now and the focus now switches to Newcastle, Newmarket and the Curragh on Saturday. The Irish Derby is the feature at the Curragh. In the UK, the Northumberland Plate is the big race of the day. Check out Dave Stevos’ Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday tips for all live ITV races below.
1.45 Newcastle – William Hill Handicap (Class 2)
In the hope that a return to Newcastle will spark him back to form, I am going to take a chance on Major Jumbo. Trained by Kevin Ryan, this son of Zebedee has run well on all three previous visits to Newcastle. He won a handicap on his first run there over 5f as a 3yo in 2017. He was beat a short head on his follow up attempt a month later. However, the run that makes him of interest today was his excellent effort in the G3 Chipcase Stakes here over 6f last season.
Ryan’s charge finished 3rd that day, beat just 1.5L by the 109 rated Judicial off level weights. Major Jumbo was then beat under 2l by Moss Gill over 5f in a Listed race at York. He followed that with another decent Listed 2nd behind Judicial at Chester over 6f. His form tailed off on his last three runs and his two outings this season have been non-events. However, he is now down to a workable mark of 95. With John Shinnicks’s claim, he is effectively racing off just 88.
If he repeated the form of his last Newcastle run, he surely has to have a massive chance today. Maybe he is just not the horse he once was, but the blinkers are back on and he was sent off at just 9/2 the last time he wore them so he must go well in them at home. With 5 places on offer from William Hill, Major Jumbo is the each way selection.
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Major Jumbo e/w @ 16/1 (5 Places W Hill)
2.05 Newmarket – Empress Fillies’ Stakes (Listed)
At a huge price I think Fabiosa could go well here for David Evans and Tom Marquand. Evans also runs Choux, who is the mount of Shane Kelly. However, on the form of her last run I think Fabiosa looks well worth chancing now upped to 6f. This daughter of Havana Gold showed promise on debut when 4th behind Crazyland. She built on that next time when scoring by 2L in a Fillies’ Novice at Nottingham (5f gd/fm). That form is nothing special but her next two runs at Listed level were excellent efforts.
She got a bump coming out of the stalls at York, which wasn’t ideal. She finished off really well though and she was less than 4L behind the winner Nymphadora. Next time she finished 4L behind the impressive Ebro River at Sandown (5f sft). She only missed out on 3rd by a neck and she had Chipotle and Bond Chairman in behind (1st and 4th in the Windsor Castle at Ascot). The winner was beat just 2L in the Coventry and it looks like pretty decent form to me.
Now she is back in against her own sex and the return to good ground will suit her. I think she’ll be ridden to nick 3rd and some black type by Tom Marquand, who has 6 wins and 14 top 4 finishes from 43 rides for Dave Evans. Judging by how she has finished off her last two runs this step up to 6f is well worth a shot. At odds of 40/1, Fabiosa is worth chancing each way for small stakes.
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Fabiosa e/w @ 40/1 (4 places Coral/Ladbrokes)
2.20 Newcastle – Chipcase Stakes (Listed)
Ainsdale has shown really smart form on his last two runs. If he handles this surface, I think he is capable of running a big race today. On his penultimate start at Chester he ran a blinder behind two solid performers in King’s Lynn and El Astronaute. Burke stepped him up in class at Haydock when we were on at 16/1. He just missed out in a head bobber with subsequent King’s Stand 6th, Liberty Beach, over 5f in a G2 on heavy.
All of this fella’s best form has come on ground softer than good. The surface at Newcastle is an unknown but his sire Mayson has a respectable record there. He has had had a total of 156 runners with 17 winning and 49 placing. Going back up to 6f on this stiff track should bring his stamina into play (won over 6f on heavy last season) and Cliff Lee retains the ride. Given the doubts about the surface, keep stakes small, but at odds of 20/1 I think Ainsdale has the ability to figure if he takes to the Tapeta.
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Ainsdale e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
2.40 Newmarket – Fred Archer Stakes (Listed)
A disappointing turnout for this Listed heat and back on quick ground, Logician could be hard to beat. He has been turned over the last twice on good to soft and soft. However, previous to that he had racked up six wins on the spin, five of which came on fast ground, including the 2019 St Leger. This horse has clearly had issues since given that he has only made the track twice but it was an encouraging return when beat just 5.5L by Al Aasy at Newbury. If he can build on that, he is the one they all have to beat.
Desert Encounter is a grand horse and he’ll run his usual solid race no doubt. If Logician is below his best, he could be the one to pick up the pieces. Pablo Escobar has to bounce back from successive poor runs and of those at bigger odds, Outbox probably makes most appeal. However, with just 2 places on offer I am going to give this race a miss. No bet.
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.55 Newcastle – Northumberland Vase (Class 2)
This is the consolation race for the Northumberland Plate and it is the same 16.5f trip. Even over this marathon distance the draw is important as you don’t want to be trapped too wide. From the plum draw in stall 1, perhaps Rochester House can go well for Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning. This son of Galileo was a very respectable 8th of 16 in the Chester Cup off 94 just two runs ago. He finished 6L behind the winner Falcon Eight but he was bang there until the 2f pole and the 18f trip probably just stretched his stamina.
Last time out he tried to make all in the 20f Ascot Stakes off 93. Again, the trip stretched him. Dropping back to 16f should suit and he is drawn to attack in stall 1. What’s more, he is rated just 88 on the all-weather so he is in off the same mark as when beaten just a length over C&D on his last visit behind Lucky Deal and Cosmelli. He is also just 1lb higher than he was for his last all-weather win at Lingfield. Fanning and Johnston teamed up to win this with Mondain last season. Hopefully they can repeat the trick with Rochester House. At odds of 25/1, he is the each way selection in a wide open race.
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Rochester House e/w @ 25/1 (5 places W Hill)
3.15 Newmarket – Criterion Stakes (Group 3)
We backed Apollo One in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Sandown last time in the hope he would handle the heavy ground. He didn’t and he finished well beaten. However, I think he is worth giving another chance to now returned to a sounder surface. Trained by Peter Charalambous, Martin Harley will ride. If he can repeat the form if his excellent run at Ascot (6f) back in April behind Rohaan, he has every chance of sneaking into the money here.
The ground was good to firm that day and Apollo One just lacked the gears of some of his rivals. He did manage to keep on for a dead heat for 4th and I think going back up to 7f is going to suit. That was the trip when he upset Megallan (now rated 110) and El Drama (now rated 109) in a Listed heat at Lingfield back in March and he was a shade unlucky back there on All Weather Championships Day on his next start when 4th.
Apollo One is rated 101 which leaves him with a bit to find with some of the older horses. However, he gets a handy weight for age allowance which will be a big help. He is getting 12lbs from the fav Kinross (rated 114) and 9lbs from the rest of the field (bar The Lir Jet) so if he runs to his official rating, he is not without a chance at the figures. Even with just three places on offer, Apollo One is worth backing each way for small stakes at odds of 33/1.
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Apollo One e/w @ 33/1
3.30 Newcastle – Northumberland Plate (Class 2)
A maximum field of 20 horses will fight it out for this 16.5f, £150k heritage handicap. Top weight Trueshan heads the market for Alan King and Rhys Clutterbuck takes off 5lbs. The Group 2 winning son of Planteur is the class horse in the race and that Ascot win was very impressive so he could well be good enough to carry his welter burden to victory. The bookies make him favourite to do so and he will have plenty of supporters at around 5/1.
Island Brave is a horse that owes us nothing after his 33/1 win at Ascot last August. That came off a mark of 93 and with Ray Dawson claiming 3lbs, he is in off just 4lbs higher here. Since then he landed a conditions race at Newcastle, beating Australis and the 111 rated Rainbow Dreamer off level weights. Rainbow Dreamer is 13lbs worse off with Island Brave today, Australis is just 1lb better off for a half length defeat.
Island Brave is nearly double the price of Rainbow Dreamer and triple the price of Australis. He is drawn out wide in stall 14 but that won’t be an issue. This horse likes to be dropped out and Ray Dawson will need to ride with balls of steel and hope and pray that he gets the gaps in the home straight. Granted luck in running, Island Brave is more than capable of running a big race and it has likely been his main target this season. At odds of 20/1, he is the e/w NAP of the day.
Newcastle and Newmarket Saturday Tip: Island Brave e/w @ 20/1 NAP (6 Places W Hill)
3.45 Curragh – Irish Derby (Group 1)
This year a total of 11 horses will go for glory in the Irish Derby at the Curragh. The recent rain showers have taken the jar out of the ground and conditions should be absolutely perfect on Saturday. The O’Briens run six, five for Aidan and one for Donnacha. High Definition heads the market for Aidan and Ryan Moore is on board.
Unbeaten as a 2yo, this horse made a very pleasing return to action when 3rd behind Hurricane Lane in the Dante at York (10f gd). Hurricane Lane had the benefit of a pipe opener that day though and the way High Definition finished off his race suggests that the Godolphin horse might struggle to uphold the form.
I am a big fan of Earlswood and I was gutted that he didn’t travel to Epsom as I was on him ante-post at big odds. He won well for us last time in the Gallinule over 10f here on bad ground. However, conditions will be very different today. I reckon he will be fine on the ground over today’s trip though. I think it was the nature of the track that beat him at Chester rather than the ground and I wouldn’t be overly surprised if he ran a big race. He might just come up short though.
Frankie Factor
I think the fact that Frankie has been booked for the ride on Lone Eagle is a sign that can’t be ignored. Dettori must have had the option of riding one of Aidan’s but instead he has opted to sit on Martyn Meade’s charge. This horse is bred in the purple and he was a solid 4th on his return in the Classic Trial at Sandown (10f gd). He was only 4L behind subsequent Derby winner Adayar and the winner Alenquer followed up at Royal Ascot.
Lone Eagle clearly came on for that comeback judging by his superb performance at Goodwood. The step up to 11f saw him reverse Sandown form with Yibir in emphatic style and that win convinced connections to have a go at the highest level. His rating of 109 leaves him with a bit to find but he looks like a horse that has plenty more improvement to come. He is by the right sire in Galileo and his Duke Of Marmalade dam is from the family of Oaks winner Reams Of Verse. Good ground is perfect, 12f should be ideal and at odds of 8/1, Lone Eagle is the each way pick.
