2021 Open Championship Preview and Tips James Punt
2021 Open Championship Preview and Tips
The European Championship was a mere appetiser for the real Summer of Sport. The 2021 Open Championship, the British Grand Prix and the World Matchplay darts. All played out with spectators and the first two under clear blue, sun filled skies. One pair of eyes will not be enough.
This years Open Championship returns to Royal St. Georges on the Kent coast in the south of England. Regarded as one of the tougher courses on the Open rota, the 7200 yard par 70 is a true links, unlike the venue used for last weeks Scottish Open. It is a shame that with Ireland and Scotland blessed with so many brilliant links courses, the two warm up events for the Open were played on businessmen’s courses.
A wet early summer in the south of England means that the course will be playing softer than the green staff would like. That will make it play easier, bringing more players into the equation. The weather forecast for the four days is good. A little cloud on Thursday but otherwise wall to wall sunshine. 20 degrees and a fairly consistent 10-15 mph breeze from north, north-east for all four days. For once the draw does not look like playing a big part on deciding the winner on a seaside course. It could not be fairer.
Clarke And Curtis Previous Course Winners
The last two winners here were Ben Curtis in 2003 and Darren Clarke in 2011. 501.00 and 251.00 outsiders respectively. In those two events, the course favoured big hitters and rewarded players who hit a lot of greens in regulation. It is a second shot course and missing the fairway bunkers is key to bogey avoidance. Links golf is much more about playing the ball on the ground, using the contours of the course and avoiding aerial shots. This not supposed to suit American players, but history shows otherwise.
The fairways are uneven and players will get bad bounces. That frustrates the hell out of some players, especially those less familiar with links golf. If you let bad bounces get to you, you are doomed. An unflappable personality will do well this weekend. Darren Clarke’s mind coach was with him when he won in 2011. He told Clarke ‘if you are unflappable, you are unstoppable’. If you are thinking of backing the tournament favourite, Jon Rahm, you have to ask yourself, is he unflappable?
Trends Not Rahm’s Friends
As usual, there are trends for these major events. Most Open Champions have had a top 10 in a previous Open, have won a tournament in the same year, most will have played in a lot of previous Open Championships. The only world number 1 golfer to have won an Open this century was Tiger Woods. Another warning for Rahm backers.
As with any tournament, good recent form is essential. If your game is not in good shape, it is unlikely that you will find on a tough course like this.
There is only one player who ticks all the boxes. He has three Open top 10’s, his recent form has three top 5 finishes, he has won this year, he hits it a mile and his GIR stats are top 50. Step forward the 2021 Open Champion, Brooks Koepka. A Major specialist, he has played in 29 major championships, won four, been runner up three times and top ten a total of fifteen times. He is now fully fit having had a knee injury for much of the season. He is not a big fan of the course, but he is not alone in that but his laid-back attitude could be his greatest strength.
2021 Open Championship Tip: 2 points e/w Brooks Koepka to win the Open Championship @ 17.00 generally available
With the winner out of the way we can look for some big priced outsiders who may be placed and the Open Championship does throw up big priced contenders on a regular basis. There are plenty of side markets to look at as well and the first to consider is Top English player.
Matt Fitzpatrick and Tyrell Hatton are joint favourites at 6.50. Hatton doesn’t strike me as a player who has the temperament for this course. Fitzpatrick I always associate with tree lined courses and there are no trees here. Lee Westwood has been playing some good stuff for a while now, can still compete and he was 4th at the last Open at Royal Portrush. He frittered away a good start at last weeks Scottish Open.
The same can’t be said about Ian Poulter who was 4th at the Scottish Open and shot a final round 63. He says he is playing better than ever, is very happy with his putting in particular and he is a confidence player. He also wants to get in the Ryder Cup team and this is a good opportunity to put himself on Harrington’s short list.
2021 Open Championship Tip: 1 point e/w Ian Poulter to be top English player @ 11.00 with Paddy Power, Betfred, Boylesports
Louis Oosthuizen is being tipped up this week and for good reason. He is in good form with two runners up finishes from his last four and he is a past Open Champion from 2010 and a runner up in 2015. He has been runner up in the last two majors this year and has finished top 10 in four of the last eight majors. The fact that he is often the bridesmaid and rarely the bride puts me off an e/w bet but he looks decent value to finish in the top 10.
2021 Open Championship Tip: 2 points Louis Oosthuizen to finish in the top 10 @ 3.75 with Betvictor, Boylesports
One final bet is an e/w tickle on an American who has decent Open pedigree with a 2nd place in 2018 and two top 10’s in his last two events. Hitting form at just the right time this will be his sixth Open so he knows what to expect.
